Confirmed Signing with Link: [EDM] Darnell Nurse signs extension with the Oilers (8 years, $9.25M AAV)

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axlrose87

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Because it always goes up in the end. I don’t mean this in a condescending way but how old are you?
In 2008, Wade Redden made everyone shit their pants by signing a ginormous 6 year, $39 million contract. He clearly failed to live up to his contract. As a contrary example with a successful player before Redden, Nick Lidstrom routinely was on $6-8m a year contracts despite being the best defenseman of a generation.
As time goes on, more money comes into sports. It’s easy to look at something frozen in time and think “well geez, last year so and so got XYZ dollars, what a rip off.” It’s hard to realize that, even with a flat cap, these players don’t give a shit and their agents know fine well that the cap goes up over time. More money will come to the sport, and if you want them on your team, you will give them a slice of the cake. Aaron Ekblad got north of $80 million for being “good” and having proved little at the time of his contract, with the Panthers knowing fine well that he goes for $12 million in those out years if he lived up to the hype.
Shouldn’t be surprising at all, IMO.
All good and well in normal times….. these aren’t normal times.
The cap will remain flat for a few years. The pandemic has ravaged league revenue. The players owe the owners an enormous amount of money.
The cap won’t be moving anytime soon.
Why is the salary cap projected to stay flat when revenues should rise soon?
 

soliak

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Mar 26, 2013
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Has the potential to be one of the worst contracts in the league.

Nurse is a fringe top pairing defender who has had 1 1/2 above average seasons. He isn't in the same stratosphere as some of the other young D getting paid. Chicago have absolutely ruined the D market with the contract for Jones.
 

McShogun99

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Jones and Hamilton have a longer history of being top pairing Dmen and Hamilton is elite offensively. They also get a little bit of a premium for being right shot. This was Nurse’s first season on the top pairing since Klefbom held that spot previously. 8x8 is what he’s worth but him and his agent know that if he becomes a UFA then he’ll get 9+
 

Dr Beinfest

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All good and well in normal times….. these aren’t normal times.
The cap will remain flat for a few years. The pandemic has ravaged league revenue. The players owe the owners an enormous amount of money.
The cap won’t be moving anytime soon.
Why is the salary cap projected to stay flat when revenues should rise soon?
And I reiterate: why do the players or their agents give a rat’s ass about the cap being flat? The choice is on the owners and GMs to pay for a player where the cap should’ve been going. Each player will attempt to get their own. The going price is what someone is willing to pay. An 8 year deal is signed for 8 years, and if the cap is flat for the next 3 years the player does not care. In 8 years, they want to make a financial decision that benefitted them.
 
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axlrose87

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And I reiterate: why do the players or their agents give a rat’s ass about the cap being flat? The choice is on the owners and GMs to pay for a player where the cap should’ve been going. Each player will attempt to get their own. The going price is what someone is willing to pay. An 8 year deal is signed for 8 years, and if the cap is flat for the next 3 years the player does not care. In 8 years, they want to make a financial decision that benefitted them.
Im not sure we are talking about the same thing.
In years past, you could count on the cap going up every year. That is not the case now.
Any gm still operating under the assumption that the cap will continue to rise, is doing so at their own peril. The cap will not be rising anytime soon. The article attached details and explains why.
These have been horrible contracts handed out to defenseman this offseason (maybe Makar is an exception).

Why is the salary cap projected to stay flat when revenues should rise soon?
 

Mr Positive

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Jones and Hamilton have a longer history of being top pairing Dmen and Hamilton is elite offensively. They also get a little bit of a premium for being right shot. This was Nurse’s first season on the top pairing since Klefbom held that spot previously. 8x8 is what he’s worth but him and his agent know that if he becomes a UFA then he’ll get 9+
arguably, Nurse eclipsed Klefbom before this season. He had more even strength time per game since the 2017-18 season, and Klefbom had some injury issues besides his potentially career ending one. Klefbom's total ice time would often be higher, but that was largely due to his large edge in PP time, and even PK. My recollection is that I considered Klefbom as the #1, but it was a balanced top 4 so it wasn't a big edge either way.

And just to add, Nurse has proven to be a good fit on the PP but there just always was someone a little bit better. If he had been given more opportunity, he might have had better production and would have been a high ranking Norris candidate, and not just a Dman who gets some votes. His production was still high. Even strength scoring was tied for 2nd in the league.

Also, just like draft reaches, sometimes there are salary reaches. If the bet is that Nurse will consistently be a #1, and that his big step forward last season wasn't a fluke, I think it's a pretty safe bet.
 

Bounces R Way

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Nov 18, 2013
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Where do people rank Nurse in the top D?
I don’t think he’d be in my top 15.

Top 25 maybe. And that's in a good year, which is what he had last season scoring on Matt Murray and the Senators. One great year does not a #1 defenseman make and if the Oilers are really going to pay him 9 million dollars per that is a huge risk and a mistake.

I would squeeze him down to around 8.25 x 6 or 7 years. He's not really in the Makar, Werenski, Hamilton, or Jones class and the numbers say that. He does have leverage as the only Edmonton dman worth a shit so I'd expect an overpay. How substantial an overpay is up in the air.
 

zar

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arguably, Nurse eclipsed Klefbom before this season. He had more even strength time per game since the 2017-18 season, and Klefbom had some injury issues besides his potentially career ending one. Klefbom's total ice time would often be higher, but that was largely due to his large edge in PP time, and even PK. My recollection is that I considered Klefbom as the #1, but it was a balanced top 4 so it wasn't a big edge either way.

And just to add, Nurse has proven to be a good fit on the PP but there just always was someone a little bit better. If he had been given more opportunity, he might have had better production and would have been a high ranking Norris candidate, and not just a Dman who gets some votes. His production was still high. Even strength scoring was tied for 2nd in the league.

Also, just like draft reaches, sometimes there are salary reaches. If the bet is that Nurse will consistently be a #1, and that his big step forward last season wasn't a fluke, I think it's a pretty safe bet.

He also doesn’t play a lot on the PP because we absolutely need him on the PK… there aren’t any other decent options. He still plays more than any other Dman on our team.
 

zar

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Nurse is a top pairing guy. so respect to that......but of all the legit top pairing guys in the league, he's the one i'd want the least.

I'd be very interested in your list of 63 dmen you would prefer ahead of him... or does your legit top pairing guys consist of 10-12 dmen?
 
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Three On Zero

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He’s better than OEL today and that gap is only going to widen as we move forward.

As a reminder, OEL's cap hit is $8.25m for the next 6 years. Yes, I know that the Coyotes are paying 12% of it but it doesn't remove the fact of his total cap hit to the Coyotes/Canucks is $8.25m AAV.
And your point is? OEL was better when he signed that contract. Both are going to be/turn into terrible contracts
 

zar

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And your point is? OEL was better when he signed that contract. Both are going to be/turn into terrible contracts

using a comparable... point me to your comparables (contracts signed in the past couple of seasons) that says he should only get a $7-$7.5m AAV long term contract.

Oh and don't use the teams that play in no-state income tax states.
 

Del Preston

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Nurse was tied for 7th for defensemen in 5-on-5 points in 2019-20. From 2017-18 through 2019-20, he was again tied for 7th. It's not like he just started getting points against the same six teams last season.
 
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Three On Zero

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using a comparable... point me to your comparables (contracts signed in the past couple of seasons) that says he should only get a $7-$7.5m AAV long term contract.

Oh and don't use the teams that play in no-state income tax states.
It's actually probably closer to 8 than it is 7, I will take the hit on that one.
 

zar

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It's actually probably closer to 8 than it is 7, I will take the hit on that one.

I will agree with you that $8m AAV is where it should be... now add the Western Canadian small market undesirable location "tax"... that's how I get to closer to $9m AAV. It's the Oiler's reality... and it sucks!
 
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Three On Zero

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I will agree with you that $8m AAV is where it should be... now add the Western Canadian small market undesirable location "tax"... that's how I get to closer to $9m AAV. It's the Oiler's reality... and it sucks!
I don't believe the undesirable tax really plays a role into a home grown player. attracting UFAs it definitely does. Nurse obviously has been with the team through the darkness, he knows first hand what it's like to play on a poor team. Edmonton finally has a chance at becoming a respectable team so the guy bends Holland over getting more than he's worth? doesn't really seem like the right move. Especially considering he's only had one really good season
 

zar

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I don't believe the undesirable tax really plays a role into a home grown player. attracting UFAs it definitely does. Nurse obviously has been with the team through the darkness, he knows first hand what it's like to play on a poor team. Edmonton finally has a chance at becoming a respectable team so the guy bends Holland over getting more than he's worth? doesn't really seem like the right move. Especially considering he's only had one really good season

Show me one higher end expiring (as UFA) contract in the past couple decades where the "homegrown player" had the desire to re-sign a 5+ year contract in Edmonton at a reasonable rate... one, Nuge... now tell me that it's not a factor.
 

Paul4587

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Jan 26, 2006
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Holland is making mistake after mistake and if the rumored price for Nurse is true it’s going to be another mistake. McDavid isn’t winning shit in Edmonton.

Not saying Nurse didn’t have a great season or isn’t a good player but to pay him $9M per year is asinine.
 

Dr Beinfest

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Jun 11, 2012
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Im not sure we are talking about the same thing.
In years past, you could count on the cap going up every year. That is not the case now.
Any gm still operating under the assumption that the cap will continue to rise, is doing so at their own peril. The cap will not be rising anytime soon. The article attached details and explains why.
These have been horrible contracts handed out to defenseman this offseason (maybe Makar is an exception).

Why is the salary cap projected to stay flat when revenues should rise soon?

We are talking absolutely about the same thing, and the fact that you posted the same link again in your post is a bit condescending. You seem to have just ignored what I wrote.
You’re making some flat cap assumption that, because the cap isn’t going up much or at all in the next 2-5 years, a player signing a big fat 8 year contract isn’t going to ask for more (and isn’t going to get more). The cap will eventually rise, and when it does, anybody who signed a long term contract under the premise of the near term cap woes is a sucker. Players know this and so do their agents.
 

Mr Sakich

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Has the potential to be one of the worst contracts in the league.

Nurse is a fringe top pairing defender who has had 1 1/2 above average seasons. He isn't in the same stratosphere as some of the other young D getting paid. Chicago have absolutely ruined the D market with the contract for Jones.

7th in Norris trophy voting playing in a small market is above average now. 2nd in league ES scoring doesn't even qualify as a good season, just above average. 3rd in league in total ice time , leading league in ES ice time is just OK now apparently.

every team has at least two of those guys
 

bucks_oil

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Nurse is younger so of course the body of work will be less accomplished but he was better than Hamilton this past year, played a much bigger role, and Hamilton was never more than a 21 minute Dman until these last two years playing alongside one of the elite defenders in the league so his contract is inflated as well.

Whether it's 8.5 or 9, Nurse is going to get paid big.
Personally, I think Nurse is worth 8x8 max because he just hasn't played at a top pairing level long enough and never in a "normal" season so these 8x9 numbers are a bit absurd but based on the market and the fact that he has all the leverage, he will likely get it if he wants to push for top dollar.

I guess we agree then, the bolded is pretty much exactly what I said.
 
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