Confirmed Signing with Link: [EDM] Darnell Nurse signs extension with the Oilers (8 years, $9.25M AAV)

[TFHockey]

Nurse is not worth 9m but people are dismissing how good he actually is. Unfortunately Hamilton, Jones and Werenski contracts set the market, he’s not going to accept 8x8 anymore. All 8 years are also ufa years which should be a factor as well.

That's pretty much it in a nutshell.

 

[zar]

Theres probably 15 or so legit top pairing guys

I’d have him the top 15 for this upcoming season and probably the next few years but he would be in the bottom third of that 15.

 

[Mr Positive]

I’d have him the top 15 for this upcoming season and probably the next few years but he would be in the bottom third of that 15.

His salary would be in line with that, wouldn't it? I know it would put him in the very top tier in terms of salary, but how many of those Dmen were signed as RFAs? How many were signed years ago, when UFA's had a smaller cap and salary standard?

 

[zar]

I don't disagree with anything you've said.....he's gotten a lot better over the last three years.

I just think it's a risk to be paying a guy $9mm+ for a 52 game sample in a one off year (playing the same teams over and over), but it's not like the Oilers can afford to let him walk to FA, where he would get those dollars!

I just think D-Men and Goalies are all high risk, minus a very limited group.

Look at Bear, last year there was talk about him becoming a sure fire #1 d as early as this last season.......then......the Oilers couldn't give him a way fast enough.

It's just hocus pocus dealing with goalies and defense.

Outside of the odd lunatic that every fanbase has, I don’t think any Oilers poster was claiming Bear to be a sure fire 1D. As a matter of fact I don’t think many of us saw him as ever being a true first pairing D.

 

[zar]

His salary would be in line with that, wouldn't it? I know it would put him in the very top tier in terms of salary, but how many of those Dmen were signed as RFAs? How many were signed years ago, when UFA's had a smaller cap and salary standard?

I agree… If you look at the contracts signed within the last few years of defenceman who are viewed as number one Dmen… An $8 to $9 million AAV on an 8 year term is market value. Edmonton is always going to pay on the high end of market value because of the small market Western Canadian tax.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Nurse is a fascinating player to look at.

I have a hard time evaluating him because he plays a tremendous amount with McDavid and Draisaitl. He plays 75% of his 5v5 minutes alongside McDrai. It seems like there’s more of a willingness to say that Barrie’s numbers are boosted by McDrai, than Nurse’s.

When he’s away from them his numbers plummet, which should be expected given the greatness of McDavid and Draisaitl and the weakness of the Oilers depth prior to this season.

Now, looking at his extension, maybe the Oilers say to themselves, ‘well, we’re going to use him in the exact same way, so it shouldn’t matter.’

You also get the added bonus of a minute-munching defenceman who can play with an edge. He has some shortcomings in terms of defensive awareness and driving offence by himself, but there are a lot of positives.

Personally I don’t think he’s worth $9M. Imo, his numbers should be more impressive playing 3/4 of the game with McDavid/Draisaitl if he’s a $9M caliber player.

This is the same thing I was thinking about with Landeskog’s extension in Colorado. All of his minutes are with MacKinnon and Rantanen and like Nurse he was coming off a career season. He’s obviously a good player, but how much is he worth? How much production could another relatively talented player put up in his place? Tough evaluations.

Regardless, Darnell is a good defenceman who should have an easier time with the improved Oilers depth moving forward. I don’t think letting him walk is an option. Maybe he proves he’s worth the contract. If the Oilers win the cup while he’s there, I’m sure he’ll be a big reason why.

 

[Bond]

Interesting gamble for the Oilers if they don't sign him this off-season and see if he regresses.

 

[Auto Pilot]

Nurse is not worth 9m but people are dismissing how good he actually is. Unfortunately Hamilton, Jones and Werenski contracts set the market, he’s not going to accept 8x8 anymore. All 8 years are also ufa years which should be a factor as well.

He’s not even worth 8. He’s good offensively but abysmal defensively.

 

[HugginThePost]

Outside of the odd lunatic that every fanbase has, I don’t think any Oilers poster was claiming Bear to be a sure fire 1D. As a matter of fact I don’t think many of us saw him as ever being a true first pairing D.

Oh no, it was a thread on the Main's last year after his really good rookie season.........

......people were drinking the Kool Aide, and not just Oiler fans.

 

[HugginThePost]

He’s not even worth 8. He’s good offensively but abysmal defensively.

Nah.....he's not abysmal. He's not elite by any stretch, but he's a guy that you'd want to have on your first pairing. Made a big jump last season.

As mentioned, you'd expect that playing 75% of your time with McDrai. Betting he isn't spending a bunch of time in the defensive zone with those two on the ice.

God, I feel dirty now.

 

[zar]

He’s not even worth 8. He’s good offensively but abysmal defensively.

How many Oiler games have you watched in the past 3 years… be honest. Looks like you are an “East” guy.

 

[threeVo]

This is like Rasmus Ristolainen signing for a $9M a year after playing 3/4 of his minutes with Eichel and racking up points. Absolute insanity.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

This is one contract that I think the Oilers will regret if the rumoured numbers are correct. Paying a guy as a top ten D on one very good year ( especially where there was no interdivisional play) is how you end up with contracts that don’t age well.
I like the physicality Nurse brings and think he’s probably one of the top 25 or so D and in with a lot of guys who have flaws in their game. But I wouldn’t be signing him to a contract that assumes he’s one of the top 10 guys in the league and certainly not for that long.

 

[bucks_oil]

Because he absolutely sucked defensively.

Nurse isn't the black hole that Barrie is.

Just my opinion though.

... but you said:

Let's be honest, Norris voting is about points. He got lots of points playing with McDrai.

The clear implication was that Nurse's defense wasn't a factor in his Norris votes.

I think we can agree that can't have been true, else Barrie would have had votes.

 

[Auto Pilot]

Nah.....he's not abysmal. He's not elite by any stretch, but he's a guy that you'd want to have on your first pairing. Made a big jump last season.

As mentioned, you'd expect that playing 75% of your time with McDrai. Betting he isn't spending a bunch of time in the defensive zone with those two on the ice.

God, I feel dirty now.

He’s really good offensively, omg on the d side.

Gotta keep him around though is I guess you gotta overpay to do so. Idk what the d would look like without him and Klefbom

 

[bucks_oil]

because everyone knows he is a terrible defenseman.

sooo.... then.... if you are following the thread, Nurse's Norris votes are influenced by his defensive play and it isn't all just about "racking up points with McDavid"?

 

[Auto Pilot]

How many Oiler games have you watched in the past 3 years… be honest. Looks like you are an “East” guy.

Enough to know he’s not good in his own end and analytics back that up. They track the play on the ice and track that he’s not good defensively.

 

[GOilers88]

He’s really good offensively, omg on the d side.

Gotta keep him around though is I guess you gotta overpay to do so. Idk what the d would look like without him and Klefbom
View attachment 459601

All I seem to see everywhere are these exact charts for everyone.

He's hardly a bad defenseman. Is he a stud without the puck? No. But he's also not "bad". Doesn't line up at all with watching all the games each year.

It seems like HF has determined at least half the NHL are actually bad hockey players. Crazy that nobody in the actual league has been able to figure it out.

 

[bucks_oil]

It’s an exaggeration, but it’s largely about points as long as you aren’t plainly not that good defensively. But a guy like Jaccob Slavin is a good example, he’s legitimately great and influences play w advance metrics, but doesn’t pile up points and is barely recognized

also McDavid drives that powerplay, I don’t know if everyone is convinced Barrie is the primary driver behind that success or that he’d be a top scorer with less insane players

Unfortunately contract value is also heavily influenced by points, especially EV points, so Nurse has that working in his favor as well.

I'd be happy with Nurse between $7.5 and $8.5M, but I'm pessimistic that it can happen. His agent has strong arguments and the Oilers would be in desperate shape if he were to leave.

We might be better not to sign him now and hope his numbers fall back to earth this year.

 

[coopooter]

Yeah he plays with Mcdavid, but look at who he plays against.
He’s become a very good two way defenseman.
Every Oilers fan would be thrilled with a 7 mil contract, happy with an 8 mil contract

 

[WetcoastOrca]

He’s better than OEL today and that gap is only going to widen as we move forward.

As a reminder, OEL's cap hit is $8.25m for the next 6 years. Yes, I know that the Coyotes are paying 12% of it but it doesn't remove the fact of his total cap hit to the Coyotes/Canucks is $8.25m AAV.

Using a contract that was just voted one of the top 5 worst in the NHL to prop up Nurses contract is not exactly helping your case.

 

[Pia8988]

Nah.....he's not abysmal. He's not elite by any stretch, but he's a guy that you'd want to have on your first pairing. Made a big jump last season.

As mentioned, you'd expect that playing 75% of your time with McDrai. Betting he isn't spending a bunch of time in the defensive zone with those two on the ice.

God, I feel dirty now.

1st, 1st and 13th most goals allowed in the last three years. Not a guy I want on the top pair

 

[Pucklington]

1st, 1st and 13th most goals allowed in the last three years. Not a guy I want on the top pair

That's fine. People who watch him like him.

 

[Spoilers]

He’s not even worth 8. He’s good offensively but abysmal defensively.

This is ridiculously wrong. The guy played over 50 minutes in a game against the Jets in the playoffs.

Maybe watch him some time. There is a reason he got Norris consideration and Barrie didn’t.

 

[Auto Pilot]

This is ridiculously wrong. The guy played over 50 minutes in a game against the Jets in the playoffs.

Maybe watch him some time. There is a reason he got Norris consideration and Barrie didn’t.

he’s not good defensively. People vote badly all the time. This is data that tracked his play. Red in the dzone is bad.

he’s a bad defensive player.

also time on ice is not indicative of good d play.