Confirmed Signing with Link: [EDM] Darnell Nurse signs extension with the Oilers (8 years, $9.25M AAV) PART II

[supsens]

Both of those statements are false.

Did you see how/why the avs lost in the playoffs.

 

[ToDavid]

Hyman would be easier to move on from as he was a UFA and there were other options, but if Nurse made it to UFA status next year, he would be the best available defenseman next summer, hands down. If you think he wouldn't have gotten 9.5+ as a free agent next year, I think you are mistaken.

He would be up there, but there are some really good defensemen expiring next summer.

No idea how many of these guys will actually make it to the market but: Parayko, Lindholm, Rielly, Pulock, Klingberg.

 

[bucks_oil]

This is the issue - while Hamilton and Jones are both clearly better than Nurse, they set the rate of what teams are paying for non-elite 1D. Nurse was set to walk to UFA, and someone would have given him that contract.

While it's definitely an overpay, I don't see what choice the Oilers had.

That said - it sounds like nurse was asking for shorter term and Oilers negotiated stretching it to 8 years. I think that's the bigger mistake 4-5 years at $9.25 would have been much more palatable in my opinion (declining years tacked on after mcdavids contract expires don't help anyone).

I disagree with the bolded... I certainly would have liked a bit of a discount for going to 8 years (it seems we didn't get that), but the length of the term was the right call.

Nurse just turned 26... so this contract kicks in when he's just turned 27 and will be active through his 34 year-old season. In my mind that's the tail end of his prime, but he's still likely at his best in his 30, 31, 32, even 33 year old seasons. Experience counts for a lot in D-men... especially with guys like Nurse who has been steadily improving due to experience to overcome some of his rash decision making that was characteristic earlier in his career. Moreover, if McDrai leave, then he becomes far more trade-able at age 30, when $9.5M would be a relative bargain.

 

[HugginThePost]

Eh, I don't really think that's a fair comparison.

One guy was coming from a team that he was set up for success and moving to a team where he was not. The other guy is on the same team he was on before and will likely have more run support next season and not less.

One guy was a small physically unathletic guy that wasn't really a big fan of the gym who was starting to get to an age where you lose a bit of footspeed. The other guy is unquestionably one of the most elite physical specimens in the league and addicted to the gym; regardless of what you think about Nurse, the way he moves for a guy who is 6'4 230 lbs is absolutely ridiculous.

One guy had no consistent career trend and prior to the year before had largely peaked as a rookie eating soft minutes. The other guy has over a decade of consistent year over year improvement in performance, ice time, and responsibility.

One guy was considered kind of a lazy bum with a ton of talent since being drafted into the OHL. The other guy has been consistently lauded as the hardest working guy on the ice by everyone he's ever played with or against.

Say what you will about the contract, but comparing Nurse at this stage of the game to Skinner is a laughably atrocious take that shows you don't really have a clue about the player. Don't get me wrong, I think it's a risky deal for the Oilers, Nurse only has 1 year of playing like a legitimate number 1 defenceman. But the worst case risk isn't maybe you're paying a guy elite money when he's not good enough to even play in the league high, its maybe you're paying a guy elite money when he's only a very good number 2nd pair anchor high.

Soooooo......you're saying I still got a chance at the Big's??

What an odd take.......

 

[HugginThePost]

Strange how when Larsson was an oiler he was not a good defensive defenseman, he was a bum, but now that he's on Seattle he's unquestionably a good defensive defenceman.

That's taken so far out of context that you must have gotten whiplash writing it!!

No, people always have, and always will, give the Oiler fans a hard time for saying he was good enough defensively to make the trade for Hall justifiable!

He was always good defensively.......just not good enough to make that trade, like, ever.

It was the Oiler fans that turned on him, up until this last season, because he didn't justify the trade for Hall.

 

[Avsfan1921]

Literally the only hole on the Oilers roster is at #1G, and Smith was an excellent #1G last year, its just a gamble to put all of the eggs in the Smith basket given his age.

Their depth at F is drastically improved but You can’t argue that G is the their only hole… defence is extremely suspect until proven otherwise.

 

[JoelWarlord]

It's a ludicrous overpay because you just look at the numbers. Nurse's shooting percentage skyrocketed this year because he scored a number of goals he was never in position to score in the past. He joined the rush a lot more this season, and his offense bloomed because of it. It's not like he is still lobbing wristers from the blueline to get his 5% shooting percentage now.

This is exactly why I'm extremely skeptical of his shooting percentage spike. I watched plenty of Oilers games this year and I did not see a dynamic high end shooter, he joined the rush more but I'm not exactly sure why you'd paying a guy 9.25M to get fed rush chances by McDavid. Watching the actual tape of his goals this year I'm seeing a lot of 5 hole dribblers, and there's even an own-goal and an empty netter included. Yes there's some good shots in there and I do think he is a good shooter, I just don't think he's suddenly some elite force among the very best shooting dmen in the league and I would not expect his goal scoring to hold up. When the rest of his game is not great, I have a hard time paying him essentially for that production when it doesn't seem sustainable (even if you want to say he's shooting better there is no universe where he's shooting 10% as a defenceman long term unless goalies go back to wearing cricket pads).

Again I'm not saying he's a bad player, I just really struggle to see him as anything close to a top 10 or 20 or even 30 defenceman in the league based on everything I've seen including 20+ Oilers games this year along with everything to do with his on ice metrics. I see a guy with some very interesting physical tools who tidied up some finer aspects to his game this year, but ultimately is not doing much in transition, struggles a lot defensively despite his size and strength, and while he's a good shooter and offensive producer, is not a singularly elite shooter that should be considered a steady 20+ goal defenceman.

He will have the 5th highest salary of any defensman, and just finished 7th in Norris voting, so yes, I think you can argue that he is close to that, especially when you have some guys ahead of him who signed their deals as RFA's and Hedman signed his deal a few years ago so you have to consider inflation there.

Yeah I just don't see it. He was 7th in Norris voting because he scored a lot of goals, I just don't think he's anywhere near the top 5, 10, 20, or genuinely in my opinion top 30 defencemen in the league. Nobody was putting him anywhere close to that until he shot 10% in a 56 game season.

If you don't pay market price, you lose key players to free agency. If you lose key players, you regress as a team unless you replace them by...paying market price. Nurse has emerged as an elite #1 defenseman. He's not close to Makar, but there are certainly arguments to make regarding his status vs Hamilton. Hamilton is a pure one way defenseman, Nurse is far more rounded. But that's a conversation for another day.

I don't really agree with this characterization of Nurse vs Hamilton's skillsets. Hamilton is not rock solid defensively but he's generally good there and I would heavily disagree with the assertion that Nurse is a better two-way player (he's mediocre to poor defensively in my opinion). He is the better shooter and finisher than Hamilton in my opinion, but in terms of driving play from both ends of the ice Hamilton is far superior and this makes him an overwhelmingly better overall player than Nurse in my opinion.

And you don't necessarily regress, there's a massive opportunity cost in locking up Nurse at 9.25 instead of say, signing Hampus Lindholm next year and getting another forward with the savings. You can also regress as a team by paying market price to non-elite veteran players and locking them in for their decline phases in their 30s.

And yes, even though Petry is great, Nurse is better than Petry is. Although Petry's emergence this year was impressive in its own right.

I just don't think he is better. And that's not supposed to be a slight on Nurse because I think Petry is a fine first pairing defenceman, but nobody in their right mind is paying him 9.25M. Petry also didn't really emerge this year, he's been this good for the past four seasons or so but he just happened to get some shooting luck this year that he didn't in years past so the counting stats look better. Is he better than Jake Muzzin? Again, no in my opinion.

If a team lets a legitimate #1 defenseman walk to free agency over 750K, they deserve to lose every game for the remainder of their existence. There are less than 20 #1 defensemen in the NHL, that's why they get paid so well. If a team wants to try to win with defense by committee, that's awesome, but it probably won't work without that anchor on the blueline. The Oilers locking up Nurse is a good thing, and not an overpay by market standards.

Again my entire point is he's not a legitimate #1 defenceman in my opinion, and especially not if we're using that kind of cut off to imply #1 as the absolute cream of the crop best elite defencemen. I just don't think he's anywhere close to that tier. It's not just about letting him walk over 750k above market price, it's about letting him walk over paying 3+ million dollars above his actual on ice value.

Just because the market rate for a "#1" defined by TOI and a shooting percentage spike is 8.64 doesn't mean he's worth that much if he can't do all the other things that other elite #1 dmen can do. If the market price of bread increased by 300% would you shrug and say that's the cost of eating sandwiches, or would you cook rice or potatoes instead?

 

[HugginThePost]

People really overreact to this contract.

He's their #1 guy, was 4th in the entire league in icetime last season. Highly likely he's gonna put up some career best numbers next season, and looks like he's overall just hitting his stride as a player.

Edmonton also don't have other options. They don't have the assets to trade for a #1, they don't have any prospects that project as #1D, they won't land a #1D in UFA. While you might want this to be 1-2 mil cheaper, I wouldn't consider this to be a bad deal at all.

I'd be curious to hear how you think so. You think he's going to shoot better than double his career average like he did last year? You think he'll spend more than 75% of his time with McDrai? You think he'll average even more TOI? You think he'll feast, like McDrai and him did, on the Sens 9 times?

I'm not seeing how he get's better. All the stars aligned for him last year, and now he's getting paid.

Everyone is talking about his steady rise, I just don't see it. I saw a D Man prone to boneheaded mistakes, mainly with pinching, and gaffs in his own end. These errors were cut down last year for sure, but are we taking his body of work as his norm, or are we taking his one shortened year where he played well beyond his norm as the new Doc?

Time will tell.......

 

[snipes]

I'd be curious to hear how you think so. You think he's going to shoot better than double his career average like he did last year? You think he'll spend more than 75% of his time with McDrai? You think he'll average even more TOI? You think he'll feast, like McDrai and him did, on the Sens 9 times?

I'm not seeing how he get's better. All the stars aligned for him last year, and now he's getting paid.

Everyone is talking about his steady rise, I just don't see it. I saw a D Man prone to boneheaded mistakes, mainly with pinching, and gaffs in his own end. These errors were cut down last year for sure, but are we taking his body of work as his norm, or are we taking his one shortened year where he played well beyond his norm as the new Doc?

Time will tell.......

I’ve watched nearly every game of his career and he has steadily improved year over year. I’d question your ability to judge players or otherwise question how many games of his you’ve actually watched year over year. His improvement and better decision making is patently obvious to anyone who has watched his progression from his rookie season to now.

He’s produced offensively at a top level 5 v 5 over the last 3 years. His even strength point totals bear that out. He’s never really had a consistent top level D partner at any point in his career other than Barrie as well, and Barrie isn’t great defensively which requires Nurse to do a lot of two way heavy lifting.

He’s one of the hardest working players off the ice and comes from a family of good athletes. I don’t think we’ve even seen his peak yet.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Their depth at F is drastically improved but You can’t argue that G is the their only hole… defence is extremely suspect until proven otherwise.

Our defense has improved over last year, so I'm happy enough with that. Nurse and Barrie are back, Keith is a sharp upgrade over our rotation of horrible 2nd pair LD's from last year, Ceci had just as good of a season as Larsson last year by many metrics but is a question mark, but our bottom pair is likely going to be significantly better this year (Bear struggled a lot, hope he rebounds in Carolina but he was awful for us). It basically comes down to whether Keith and Ceci are going to be better for us as a pair this year than Adam Larsson and Caleb Jones (and then Dmitri Kulikov, as Jones wasn't good) were last year, and I think they will be. Fair enough on the "until proven otherwise", but I think the blueline is improved. Marginally improved unless Bouchard blows everyone away, but improved nontheless.

 

[ManofSteel55]

This is exactly why I'm extremely skeptical of his shooting percentage spike. I watched plenty of Oilers games this year and I did not see a dynamic high end shooter, he joined the rush more but I'm not exactly sure why you'd paying a guy 9.25M to get fed rush chances by McDavid. Watching the actual tape of his goals this year I'm seeing a lot of 5 hole dribblers, and there's even an own-goal and an empty netter included. Yes there's some good shots in there and I do think he is a good shooter, I just don't think he's suddenly some elite force among the very best shooting dmen in the league and I would not expect his goal scoring to hold up. When the rest of his game is not great, I have a hard time paying him essentially for that production when it doesn't seem sustainable (even if you want to say he's shooting better there is no universe where he's shooting 10% as a defenceman long term unless goalies go back to wearing cricket pads).

Again I'm not saying he's a bad player, I just really struggle to see him as anything close to a top 10 or 20 or even 30 defenceman in the league based on everything I've seen including 20+ Oilers games this year along with everything to do with his on ice metrics. I see a guy with some very interesting physical tools who tidied up some finer aspects to his game this year, but ultimately is not doing much in transition, struggles a lot defensively despite his size and strength, and while he's a good shooter and offensive producer, is not a singularly elite shooter that should be considered a steady 20+ goal defenceman.

Yeah I just don't see it. He was 7th in Norris voting because he scored a lot of goals, I just don't think he's anywhere near the top 5, 10, 20, or genuinely in my opinion top 30 defencemen in the league. Nobody was putting him anywhere close to that until he shot 10% in a 56 game season.


I don't really agree with this characterization of Nurse vs Hamilton's skillsets. Hamilton is not rock solid defensively but he's generally good there and I would heavily disagree with the assertion that Nurse is a better two-way player (he's mediocre to poor defensively in my opinion). He is the better shooter and finisher than Hamilton in my opinion, but in terms of driving play from both ends of the ice Hamilton is far superior and this makes him an overwhelmingly better overall player than Nurse in my opinion.

And you don't necessarily regress, there's a massive opportunity cost in locking up Nurse at 9.25 instead of say, signing Hampus Lindholm next year and getting another forward with the savings. You can also regress as a team by paying market price to non-elite veteran players and locking them in for their decline phases in their 30s.

I just don't think he is better. And that's not supposed to be a slight on Nurse because I think Petry is a fine first pairing defenceman, but nobody in their right mind is paying him 9.25M. Petry also didn't really emerge this year, he's been this good for the past four seasons or so but he just happened to get some shooting luck this year that he didn't in years past so the counting stats look better. Is he better than Jake Muzzin? Again, no in my opinion.


Again my entire point is he's not a legitimate #1 defenceman in my opinion, and especially not if we're using that kind of cut off to imply #1 as the absolute cream of the crop best elite defencemen. I just don't think he's anywhere close to that tier. It's not just about letting him walk over 750k above market price, it's about letting him walk over paying 3+ million dollars above his actual on ice value.

Just because the market rate for a "#1" defined by TOI and a shooting percentage spike is 8.64 doesn't mean he's worth that much if he can't do all the other things that other elite #1 dmen can do. If the market price of bread increased by 300% would you shrug and say that's the cost of eating sandwiches, or would you cook rice or potatoes instead?

It seems that your entire analysis comes down to thinking that Nurse got his salary because of his goal scoring, and I think that is the beginning of a long line of flaws. But that's fair.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I'd be curious to hear how you think so. You think he's going to shoot better than double his career average like he did last year? You think he'll spend more than 75% of his time with McDrai? You think he'll average even more TOI? You think he'll feast, like McDrai and him did, on the Sens 9 times?

Last full season he had 41 points. At that time Edmonton was near the bottom of the standings and 20th in Goals per game.

19-20 they were 15th in goals per game.
20-21 they were 7th in goals per game.

His icetime should stay high (Oilers have not added anyone that should steal significantly from his role), Oilers have upgraded their forwards so they should be at least as good offensively.

As for his shooting %, it was high last season but the season before that it was low (not surprised you ignore this) - even if he shoots at about his career average he should maintain a career high in points-per-game and set a new career best point totals.

 

[AdvancedPressure]

Ok, so this contract. Edmonton fans, you guys need to stop kidding yourselves. Darnell is overpaid by about $3 million per on this contract. I mean it's just disgusting to look at the term and dollar value on this albatross. Then you pop in here and there are all kinds apologists out of Alberta trying to perform mental gymnastics to justify the damn thing! Jesus. It's criminal what this organization is doing pissing away McDavid's prime years.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Their depth at F is drastically improved but You can’t argue that G is the their only hole… defence is extremely suspect until proven otherwise.

That’s the way I see it too. Forwards significantly improved. A pretty big step back on D losing Larsson. Keith and Ceci are bottom pairing guys ideally and don’t come close to replacing him.
Goaltending is a huge hole.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Ok, so this contract. Edmonton fans, you guys need to stop kidding yourselves. Darnell is overpaid by about $3 million per on this contract. I mean it's just disgusting to look at the term and dollar value on this albatross. Then you pop in here and there are all kinds apologists out of Alberta trying to perform mental gymnastics to justify the damn thing! Jesus. It's criminal what this organization is doing pissing away McDavid's prime years.

So you think you can sign a #1 defenseman who plays 25-26 minutes per night, and does it well on both sides of the puck, for 6.25M per year?

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

Our defense has improved over last year, so I'm happy enough with that. Nurse and Barrie are back, Keith is a sharp upgrade over our rotation of horrible 2nd pair LD's from last year, Ceci had just as good of a season as Larsson last year by many metrics but is a question mark, but our bottom pair is likely going to be significantly better this year (Bear struggled a lot, hope he rebounds in Carolina but he was awful for us). It basically comes down to whether Keith and Ceci are going to be better for us as a pair this year than Adam Larsson and Caleb Jones (and then Dmitri Kulikov, as Jones wasn't good) were last year, and I think they will be. Fair enough on the "until proven otherwise", but I think the blueline is improved. Marginally improved unless Bouchard blows everyone away, but improved nontheless.

...your D may have improved offensively, but neither Keith or Ceci are going to be able to replace what you lost defensively in Larsson, imo...that's going to be the issue for the Oilers as I see it; the team is still weak defensively and Smith can't keep kicking the shyte out of Father Time forever...not to mention if he gets injured and you have to run with Koskinen...Holland didn't pay enough attention to the #1 issue that's been hampering Edmonton's ability to become a true Cup Contender; tightening up the Team Defense...

 

[JoelWarlord]

It seems that your entire analysis comes down to thinking that Nurse got his salary because of his goal scoring, and I think that is the beginning of a long line of flaws. But that's fair.

Not exactly. My opinion is that he got paid a lot because he's big, plays a lot of minutes, and skates well, and because this year he put up a lot of points including goals. He is the exact kind of tools-first defenceman that GMs salivate over and he has draft pedigree as well, and scoring a bunch this year puts him over the edge as the complete #1D in the eyes of an NHL GM. I just don't really think that the tools match up with the on-ice performance.

Again I don't think he's a bad player and he did round out a lot of rough edges to his game, but I really do not see anything in his on-ice results nor did I see anything in watching 20+ Oilers games this year that suggests some meteoric rise from a guy who nobody even remotely considered a dominant #1 in January to a guy with the 5th biggest salary at his position in the league.

I do think he still would have made a lot of money if he only scored 5-8 goals this year (because again he's still a big dman that skates well and plays big minutes), but I don't really think it's disputable that the 16G in 56 game season is what propelled him from the 6-7M into the $9M+ range. I just don't think there's a universe where Nurse scores 7 or 8 goals last season then is offered a contract worth 9.25M per year for 8 years in August 2021.

 

[Chabot84]

If a team lets a legitimate #1 defenseman walk to free agency over 750K, they deserve to lose every game for the remainder of their existence. There are less than 20 #1 defensemen in the NHL, that's why they get paid so well. If a team wants to try to win with defense by committee, that's awesome, but it probably won't work without that anchor on the blueline. The Oilers locking up Nurse is a good thing, and not an overpay by market standards.

Is Nurse an “Anchor” on the blue line though?

 

[2ndGenIslander]

It just feels gross to have anyone get 9.25 mil in the flat cap era

 

[Chabot84]

Mcdavid 12 million (cap 75 million when signed)

nurse 9 million (cap 81.5 million)

draisaitl 8 million(cap 75 million)

what a funky market

So Nurse is now worth over a million$ a year more then draisaitl with only a 6 million overall cap increase?

and only 3 million less the Mcdavid

crazy.

Should use the cap numbers of when the contracts actually “kick in” though to be fair

 

[AdvancedPressure]

So you think you can sign a #1 defenseman who plays 25-26 minutes per night, and does it well on both sides of the puck, for 6.25M per year?

Ken? Is that you?

 

[Perfect_Drug]

So you think you can sign a #1 defenseman who plays 25-26 minutes per night, and does it well on both sides of the puck, for 6.25M per year?

The problem was the Bridge deal that brought him to UFA, and the Klefbom injury.

If Klefbom were still playing, Nurse gets bumped down to the 2nd pair and doesn't get much of an opportunity to prove his worth.
Also the bridge deal literally walked him straight to UFA. Exact same stupid shit we did with Jeff Petry.

If we just signed him to an 8 year deal 2 years ago, the AAV would have been $6-6.5, and he would have been signed until he was 32.

These bridge deals are causing massive problems with our Dmen.
If we bridged Draisaitl on a 2 year deal to UFA, he would be on a $11.5 million contract as well.

 

[HugginThePost]

I’ve watched nearly every game of his career and he has steadily improved year over year. I’d question your ability to judge players or otherwise question how many games of his you’ve actually watched year over year. His improvement and better decision making is patently obvious to anyone who has watched his progression from his rookie season to now.

He’s produced offensively at a top level 5 v 5 over the last 3 years. His even strength point totals bear that out. He’s never really had a consistent top level D partner at any point in his career other than Barrie as well, and Barrie isn’t great defensively which requires Nurse to do a lot of two way heavy lifting.

He’s one of the hardest working players off the ice and comes from a family of good athletes. I don’t think we’ve even seen his peak yet.

We'll have to agree to disagree on him improving year over year. I'd think you'd find it difficult to get that agreement even from your own fan base. I'll give you that he seems to be a bit polarizing on your Board, same with many players, Nuge stands out, Eberle before him.

I'm by no means saying he's a bad player, we all know that's not true. I'm just saying he had a great year, better than he's ever been by a fair margin, during a one off crazy season where all the stars aligned.

There is not an Oiler fan, that at the beginning of the 20/21 season, who would have ever green lighted a $9.25 x 8 contract. You would have been laughed off the site. You would have called for Holland's head. But now, 9 months later, under odd circumstances, circumstances that played into Doc's hands, he's worth it?

Like 9 months ago, I figured he was worth $7-7.5mm on a long term deal, and that would have been on the high side. His one year has not swung the needle that much to justify that deal in my opinion.

Clearly, it can go either way......I'm sure you are hoping that it goes the same path as Drai did. If it does, it will be a home run. But, there is a chance he falls back to his "norm" and it gets ugly, quickly.

 

[HugginThePost]

Last full season he had 41 points. At that time Edmonton was near the bottom of the standings and 20th in Goals per game.

19-20 they were 15th in goals per game.
20-21 they were 7th in goals per game.

His icetime should stay high (Oilers have not added anyone that should steal significantly from his role), Oilers have upgraded their forwards so they should be at least as good offensively.

As for his shooting %, it was high last season but the season before that it was low (not surprised you ignore this) - even if he shoots at about his career average he should maintain a career high in points-per-game and set a new career best point totals.

Yes, his ice time will stay high.....but it's unlikely he will be getting more.

Yes, he'll continue to play the bulk of his minutes with McDrai.....but it's unlikely he will be getting more.

No, I'm pretty sure I saw it in a chart earlier that over the last 400 games he has shot at a 4.something% clip. He was close to 11% this year. So, your snippy comment aside, I think the shooting will fall back to his norm, which will effect his totals.

Points could increase if he takes Barrie's place on the PP, but I don't see that happening because he need to play the PK, and he's already played too much. And, that's what they have Barrie for.

 

[HugginThePost]

The problem was the Bridge deal that brought him to UFA, and the Klefbom injury.

If Klefbom were still playing, Nurse gets bumped down to the 2nd pair and doesn't get much of an opportunity to prove his worth.
Also the bridge deal literally walked him straight to UFA. Exact same stupid shit we did with Jeff Petry.

If we just signed him to an 8 year deal 2 years ago, the AAV would have been $6-6.5, and he would have been signed until he was 32.

These bridge deals are causing massive problems with our Dmen.
If we bridged Draisaitl on a 2 year deal to UFA, he would be on a $11.5 million contract as well.

Yup.....the bridge deal at the time looked like a huge win. "Prove it"!!

Well, he did.........

Ouch.