Confirmed Signing with Link: [EDM] Darnell Nurse signs extension with the Oilers (8 years, $9.25M AAV) PART II

[ManofSteel55]

No. It’s a dumb argument by posters desperate to establish parallels that don’t exist.
For every good signing at age 26 you can find a poor one.
Stick to arguing about Nurse rather than using false analogies.

No, you're just looking too far into a superficial comment. It appears to me that it was literally a "yeah, you guys said Draisaitl's deal was bad too", and you are breaking it down to be something way more than it was.
Don't tell me how to converse in this debate either. It wasn't even my analogy to begin with, so keep your attitude to yourself.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

No, you're just looking too far into a superficial comment. It appears to me that it was literally a "yeah, you guys said Draisaitl's deal was bad too", and you are breaking it down to be something way more than it was.
Don't tell me how to converse in this debate either. It wasn't even my analogy to begin with, so keep your attitude to yourself.

Agreed. Let’s keep the discussion about Nurse rather than going off on tangents about other good and bad signings that have no bearing on this signing.

 

[supsens]

Yes. The Avs definitely got a discount because Makar is “not the best defensively”.

He isn’t if he was the avs would be unstoppable

 

[JoelWarlord]

I can't stop thinking about this contract. Absolute insanity. One of the worst deals I've ever seen in terms of how much of an overpay it is on the day it's signed. It won't end up being as bad as Skinner/Karlsson but it's worse than those deals were on day 1.

 

[ijuka]

RFA years are cheaper and Markar is not the best defensively.

Makar is better than Nurse defensively.

 

[I Hate Blake Coleman]

He took a discount. Nice.

 

[supsens]

Makar is better than Nurse defensively.

No he isnt

 

[McDoused]

Makar is better than Nurse defensively.

Makar isnt a comparable. He gave up RFA years that take him to free agency at the age of 28 when the cap is going to be increased.

Nurse's contract is all UFA years in his prime and expires when he is 35.

They are two very different contracts for two very different players.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I can't stop thinking about this contract. Absolute insanity. One of the worst deals I've ever seen in terms of how much of an overpay it is on the day it's signed. It won't end up being as bad as Skinner/Karlsson but it's worse than those deals were on day 1.

How so? It's market value, as set by the Hamilton signing and Jones signing. And arguably the Makar signing, although that's different as he is still in his RFA years. I know I'd much rather have Nurse at his new contract than Hamilton or Werenski at theirs, and Jones at his if he plays like he did last year and doesn't rebound to what he was in his best seasons. Its odd that of all these defensemen (Makar aside as an RFA), Nurse is the one being singled out when he was significantly better than more than one of them last season.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Makar is better than Nurse defensively.

He isn't. But I think Nurse's first few years of rookie mistakes where he instantly developed an unfounded reputation as being an "all tools, no toolbox" guy is still following him around. Makar is a better player, and is significantly better offensively, but Darnell Nurse has become a beast defensively. I don't think there is a facet of defensive play that Makar has on Nurse, just as I wouldn't argue that Nurse has an edge on Makar in any facet of offensive play.

 

[McFlash97]

Nurse is a 45-50 point guy who can play over 30 minutes a game , skates well, defends well, and is a gym rat constantly pushing himself and improving. In 3 years time this deal will make a lot more sense when he is turning 29 and is regarded a solid all around dman who teams go to war with.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Nurse is a 45-50 point guy who can play over 30 minutes a game , skates well, defends well, and is a gym rat constantly pushing himself and improving. In 3 years time this deal will make a lot more sense when he is turning 29 and is regarded a solid all around dman who teams go to war with.

The biggest issue here is that people just don't know how good Nurse has become. I can understand it based on viewings for fans who didn't watch the North division at all this year, but a lot of these guys should probably be questioning if their opinion of the player is correct if they haven't watched him in the past year.

 

[ijuka]

He isn't. But I think Nurse's first few years of rookie mistakes where he instantly developed an unfounded reputation as being an "all tools, no toolbox" guy is still following him around. Makar is a better player, and is significantly better offensively, but Darnell Nurse has become a beast defensively. I don't think there is a facet of defensive play that Makar has on Nurse, just as I wouldn't argue that Nurse has an edge on Makar in any facet of offensive play.

Interesting.

 

[Henkka]

Evolving-hockey estimated Nurse 8-year deal for 8.64M caphit. So that estimation was 610k off. But not anything drastically.

They also estimated Barrie 3-year deal for 6.2M. Holland got that for 4.5M.
A bargain, where they were 1.7M off with this deal.

So those two defenceman overall are 1.1M steals together.

Hyman was estimated 6.8M for 8-year deal. That seems like a bargain too. 5.5M is nothing on those last years, when cap is gonna grow fast.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Interesting.

Great. There are so many charts out there that show so many things, and a lot of them are pretty inaccurate when it comes to defensive play. We've seen these analytics companies come up with enough flawed stats over the years that I don't just believe them because someone tweeted a chart once.

 

[JoelWarlord]

How so? It's market value, as set by the Hamilton signing and Jones signing. And arguably the Makar signing, although that's different as he is still in his RFA years.

It's market value for elite #1 defencemen and I don't believe he's even close to being that. I don't think he's even in the same stratosphere as Hamilton or Makar. I think Jones is also massively overpaid for the same reason. I'm not really convinced this is market price given he's never been even remotely considered for a 9M contract before this season, while all three of Hamilton, Jones, and Makar have much higher long term reputations. Even if you want to argue he's as good as those three I have no idea why the Oilers are paying him as if he has the same reputation and bargaining power as those three.

I'm not trying to say he sucks but he's shot under 5% for his career and is being paid like a franchise player after a single year shooting 10.4% and spending over half of his ice time with the best player in the world. This is just a ludicrous overpay to me. When the market is so irrational that the price for Darnell Nurse is 9.25M for 8 years then you shouldn't be paying market price. He will have the 5th highest salary of any dman in the league when this kicks in, is he anywhere even close to that? Is he even better than Jeff Petry? I'm not really convinced that's the case.

 

[Spybot]

Evolving-hockey estimated Nurse 8-year deal for 8.64M caphit. So that estimation was 610k off. But not anything drastically.

They also estimated Barrie 3-year deal for 6.2M. Holland got that for 4.5M.
A bargain, where they were 1.7M off with this deal.

So those two defenceman overall are 1.1M steals together.

Hyman was estimated 6.8M for 8-year deal. That seems like a bargain too. 5.5M is nothing on those last years, when cap is gonna grow fast.

Are their projections based on the players' present and future performance or based on how similar contract negotiations went in the past? I could have easily predicted Nurse was looking for a big payday, doesn't mean I would have been willing to give it to him. Same for Hyman.

 

[ffh]

Its not small market, its the Edmonton (Winnipeg, Buffalo, etc etc) tax. It has nothing to do with large or small markets, and has everything to do with being far less desirable to most people. Beyond the city itself taxes are an issue that canont be ignored.

Nurse is a very good player, but overpaid and for way too many years, it will be an anchor at some point.

Complete shit. Winnipeg doesn't overpay. Who did they over pay. Scheifele ehlers connor Hellebuyck buff lowry Morrissey. All their core locked up at reasonable price. Some gms don't overpay. Whether large market or small. Chicago LA Toronto has overpaid 10 players for every one the jets might have. Wpg calgary boston isles for example don't over pay. While Edmonton Toronto and many others overpay all the time. That's on the gms not the market. Boston just paid 3x3 mill for forbort in fa a year after he went to the the jets a 1x1. I guess there's a tax in Boston.

 

[ManofSteel55]

It's market value for elite #1 defencemen and I don't believe he's even close to being that. I don't think he's even in the same stratosphere as Hamilton or Makar. I think Jones is also massively overpaid for the same reason. I'm not really convinced this is market price given he's never been even remotely considered for a 9M contract before this season, while all three of Hamilton, Jones, and Makar have much higher long term reputations. Even if you want to argue he's as good as those three I have no idea why the Oilers are paying him as if he has the same reputation and bargaining power as those three.

I'm not trying to say he sucks but he's shot under 5% for his career and is being paid like a franchise player after a single year shooting 10.4% and spending over half of his ice time with the best player in the world. This is just a ludicrous overpay to me. When the market is so irrational that the price for Darnell Nurse is 9.25M for 8 years then you shouldn't be paying market price. He will have the 5th highest salary of any dman in the league when this kicks in, is he anywhere even close to that? Is he even better than Jeff Petry? I'm not really convinced that's the case.

It's a ludicrous overpay because you just look at the numbers. Nurse's shooting percentage skyrocketed this year because he scored a number of goals he was never in position to score in the past. He joined the rush a lot more this season, and his offense bloomed because of it. It's not like he is still lobbing wristers from the blueline to get his 5% shooting percentage now. He will have the 5th highest salary of any defensman, and just finished 7th in Norris voting, so yes, I think you can argue that he is close to that, especially when you have some guys ahead of him who signed their deals as RFA's and Hedman signed his deal a few years ago so you have to consider inflation there.

If you don't pay market price, you lose key players to free agency. If you lose key players, you regress as a team unless you replace them by...paying market price. Nurse has emerged as an elite #1 defenseman. He's not close to Makar, but there are certainly arguments to make regarding his status vs Hamilton. Hamilton is a pure one way defenseman, Nurse is far more rounded. But that's a conversation for another day.

And yes, even though Petry is great, Nurse is better than Petry is. Although Petry's emergence this year was impressive in its own right.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Are their projections based on the players' present and future performance or based on how similar contract negotiations went in the past? I could have easily predicted Nurse was looking for a big payday, doesn't mean I would have been willing to give it to him. Same for Hyman.

Hyman would be easier to move on from as he was a UFA and there were other options, but if Nurse made it to UFA status next year, he would be the best available defenseman next summer, hands down. If you think he wouldn't have gotten 9.5+ as a free agent next year, I think you are mistaken.

 

[deckercky]

How so? It's market value, as set by the Hamilton signing and Jones signing.

This is the issue - while Hamilton and Jones are both clearly better than Nurse, they set the rate of what teams are paying for non-elite 1D. Nurse was set to walk to UFA, and someone would have given him that contract.

While it's definitely an overpay, I don't see what choice the Oilers had.

That said - it sounds like nurse was asking for shorter term and Oilers negotiated stretching it to 8 years. I think that's the bigger mistake 4-5 years at $9.25 would have been much more palatable in my opinion (declining years tacked on after mcdavids contract expires don't help anyone).

 

[Spybot]

Hyman would be easier to move on from as he was a UFA and there were other options, but if Nurse made it to UFA status next year, he would be the best available defenseman next summer, hands down. If you think he wouldn't have gotten 9.5+ as a free agent next year, I think you are mistaken.

Yes, that's what I'm saying - he would absolutely get that much from somebody, but I really wouldn't want my team to be that somebody.

 

[Ararana]

He isn’t if he was the avs would be unstoppable

Both of those statements are false.

 

[JoelWarlord]

Evolving-hockey estimated Nurse 8-year deal for 8.64M caphit. So that estimation was 610k off. But not anything drastically.

That doesn't mean it's a good contract though. EH projections are based on historical comparables, it's a model of what GM's pay guys for (typically points and TOI for dmen), not any sort of projected actual performance. Of course there's some overlap, but his market value being 8.64 is effectively just saying a GM would have paid 8.64 for a mid 20s dman that played 25 minutes a night. That doesn't mean the market is actually efficient or that paying market price for a player overvalued for things like a goal scoring spike and "playing lots of minutes" is a good thing.

It probably is "only" 500-750k above what his UFA market price might have been, but that doesn't mean you should pay it.

 

[ManofSteel55]

That doesn't mean it's a good contract though. EH projections are based on historical comparables, it's a model of what GM's pay guys for (typically points and TOI for dmen), not any sort of projected actual performance. Of course there's some overlap, but his market value being 8.64 is effectively just saying a GM would have paid 8.64 for a mid 20s dman that played 25 minutes a night. That doesn't mean the market is actually efficient or that paying market price for a player overvalued for things like a goal scoring spike and "playing lots of minutes" is a good thing.

It probably is "only" 500-750k above what his UFA market price might have been, but that doesn't mean you should pay it.

If a team lets a legitimate #1 defenseman walk to free agency over 750K, they deserve to lose every game for the remainder of their existence. There are less than 20 #1 defensemen in the NHL, that's why they get paid so well. If a team wants to try to win with defense by committee, that's awesome, but it probably won't work without that anchor on the blueline. The Oilers locking up Nurse is a good thing, and not an overpay by market standards.