Post-Game Talk: ECQF 3 (Flyers lead series 2-1): FLYERS 1 vs. Canadiens 0, Sunday, Aug. 16, 2020

[Stumble40]

Best I can do on Thompson and Grant is the Shadow Realm.

Phantom zone

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I mean, they were also 8th in CA/60 in a virutal tie with the Flyers. I hope I'm reading it wrong, but I think he's implying that there was a lack of Shot Quality. They did take a lot of point Shots, but they also lived in the slot.

They're just a good 5v5 team, period.

 

[Curufinwe]

Thompson is averaging a minute more at ES than Grant, NAK and JVR.

NHL.com Stats

 

[Starat327]

I mean, they were also 8th in CA/60 in a virutal tie with the Flyers. I hope I'm reading it wrong, but I think he's implying that there was a lack of Shot Quality. They did take a lot of point Shots, but they also lived in the slot.

They're just a good 5v5 team, period.

no no, Jojo. We have to make everyone believe the Flyers actually played well last night.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

I mean, they were also 8th in CA/60 in a virutal tie with the Flyers. I hope I'm reading it wrong, but I think he's implying that there was a lack of Shot Quality. They did take a lot of point Shots, but they also lived in the slot.

They're just a good 5v5 team, period.

People are just so happy to overlook the actual personnel on the ice though. Breakaway for McDavid isn't the same as having Thompson or Weise given the same opportunity, because there's such a thing as talent and execution on the plays.

 

[BiggE]

I mean, they were also 8th in CA/60 in a virutal tie with the Flyers. I hope I'm reading it wrong, but I think he's implying that there was a lack of Shot Quality. They did take a lot of point Shots, but they also lived in the slot.

They're just a good 5v5 team, period.

Which is why handicapping the powerplay with Michel Therrien is just criminal.

 

[BiggE]

Thompson is averaging a minute more at ES than Grant, NAK and JVR.

NHL.com Stats

Ew

 

[JojoTheWhale]

People are just so happy to overlook the actual personnel on the ice though. Breakaway for McDavid isn't the same as having Thompson or Weise given the same opportunity, because there's such a thing as talent and execution on the plays.

I think you're assuming I'm saying something I'm not here, because I've definitely never said that. Shooting talent is still the rarest and most expensive skill an NHL player can have.

You can also have less Shooting talent than someone else, but generate so many more high quality chances that you're worth as much offensively. Nothing is black and white.

 

[Cmoneyflyguy]

JVR is a slug. At least Thompson makes his presence known (not all negative)
JVR is soft as baby poo and just worthless right now.

 

[landsbergfan]

They're just a good 5v5 team, period.

They look great 4v5 too

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

I posted about it last night but thought about it again this morning.

This next game is going to determine who wins the series. Obviously there’s a huge difference between 3-1 and 2-2 normally but it’s only going to be magnified more this year with the back to back.

They’re going to give Elliott a start in one out of these next three games. I can’t see them rolling out Hart for 3 games in 4 days. The same goes for the Habs and Price, although that one is much more likely.

You can either be up 3-1 with Price going on a back to back or 2-2 with very likely having to throw Elliott out there for a game in a best of three series at that point.

TL;DR Hold onto your butts as Elliott may determine our season.

 

[Starat327]

I posted about it last night but thought about it again this morning.

This next game is going to determine who wins the series. Obviously there’s a huge difference between 3-1 and 2-2 normally but it’s only going to be magnified more this year with the back to back.

They’re going to give Elliott a start in one out of these next three games. I can’t see them rolling out Hart for 3 games in 4 days. The same goes for the Habs and Price, although that one is much more likely.

You can either be up 3-1 with Price going on a back to back or 2-2 with very likely having to throw Elliott out there for a game in a best of three series at that point.

TL;DR Hold onto your butts as Elliott may determine our season.

 

[Deadpool8812]

I posted about it last night but thought about it again this morning.

This next game is going to determine who wins the series. Obviously there’s a huge difference between 3-1 and 2-2 normally but it’s only going to be magnified more this year with the back to back.

They’re going to give Elliott a start in one out of these next three games. I can’t see them rolling out Hart for 3 games in 4 days. The same goes for the Habs and Price, although that one is much more likely.

You can either be up 3-1 with Price going on a back to back or 2-2 with very likely having to throw Elliott out there for a game in a best of three series at that point.

TL;DR Hold onto your butts as Elliott may determine our season.

Not happening unless there's an injury

 

[deadhead]

Let's look at high danger metrics, b/c Montreal's style (throw everything at the net) tends to skew Corsi in their favor.
In a close fought series, not making egregious mistakes is as important as making big plays

HDCA
Hayes 13
TK 13
Farabee 11 [2 games]
Giroux 10
Laughton 9
Couts 9
Thompson 9
Pitlick 8
JVR 5
Voracek 4
Raffl 3 [1 game]
NAK 2
Grant 1

Myers 12
Braun 11
Sanheim 11
Ghost 11 [2 games]
Provorov 9
Niskanen 7
Hagg 2 [1 game]

xGF

xGF
Farabee 28.13%
Thompson 34.03%
Raffl 34.33%
JVR 37.19%
Pitlick 38.22%
Grant 39.08%
Hayes 39.88%
TK 42.34%
Giroux 46.11%
Couts 51.81%
Laughton 51.99%
NAK 55.73%
Voracek 57.02%

Sanheim 39.46%
Myers 40.73%
Niskanen 41.56%
Ghost 42.33
Provorov 43.42%
Braun 45.81%
Hagg 50.07%

 

[Cmoneyflyguy]

The goalies won't be changing. LOL

 

[Starat327]

Let's look at high danger metrics, b/c Montreal's style (throw everything at the net) tends to skew Corsi in their favor.
In a close fought series, not making egregious mistakes is as important as making big plays

HDCA
Hayes 13
TK 13
Farabee 11 [2 games]
Giroux 10
Laughton 9
Couts 9
Thompson 9
Pitlick 8
JVR 5
Voracek 4
Raffl 3 [1 game]
NAK 2
Grant 1

Myers 12
Braun 11
Sanheim 11
Ghost 11 [2 games]
Provorov 9
Niskanen 7
Hagg 2 [1 game]

xGF

xGF
Farabee 28.13%
Thompson 34.03%
Raffl 34.33%
JVR 37.19%
Pitlick 38.22%
Grant 39.08%
Hayes 39.88%
TK 42.34%
Giroux 46.11%
Couts 51.81%
Laughton 51.99%
NAK 55.73%
Voracek 57.02%

Sanheim 39.46%
Myers 40.73%
Niskanen 41.56%
Ghost 42.33
Provorov 43.42%
Braun 45.81%
Hagg 50.07%

Why is the bolded an issue? The flyers literally scored their goal on a "throw anything at the net" philosophy. Your insistence on being stuck on this HD piece when it was explained to you why repetitive shots in small bursts are every bit, if not more dangerous, is astounding.

 

[deadhead]

I think you're assuming I'm saying something I'm not here, because I've definitely never said that. Shooting talent is still the rarest and most expensive skill an NHL player can have.

You can also have less Shooting talent than someone else, but generate so many more high quality chances that you're worth as much offensively. Nothing is black and white.

If you look at that heat chart, that's Montreal's MO in a nutshell, fire from anywhere while two forwards crash the net, so those shots around the net are probably a higher % of rebounds than most teams - Montreal is not very good at playmaking, but they're great at creating pressure around the crease.

Conversely, the Flyers like to make plays, but they don't have a lot of players crash the net consistently, they want to move the goalies eyes for a good shot, it's pretty if the other team allows you to do so. It was nice to see Voracek crash the net last night, it's something I've been screaming about for two years. Unfortunately, I don't think JVR has it in his DNA. This is where they miss Lindblom and Patrick.

 

[deadhead]

Why is the bolded an issue? The flyers literally scored their goal on a "throw anything at the net" philosophy. Your insistence on being stuck on this HD piece when it was explained to you why repetitive shots in small bursts are every bit, if not more dangerous, is astounding.

It's an issue b/c Montreal's style (like Columbus) inflates Corsi (which is not a measure of possession but shots at net) but doesn't reflect if those shots are high probability scoring chances. If you give a goalie like Hart a clear vision of a shooter from a distance, he should stop practically every shot (same with Price). One thing Hart was better at last night was guiding those shots to a corner, instead of leaving them in front of the net.

So a key issue is whether you're giving them dangerous scoring opportunities that even top goalies will struggle to stop.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Not happening unless there's an injury

The goalies won't be changing. LOL

The team has a coach that has shown that he would put Elliott in net for some of the biggest games of the regular season (Washington before the break) and playing certain players over other players.

It’s far more realistic than you guys are letting on.

 

[Starat327]

It's an issue b/c Montreal's style (like Columbus) inflates Corsi (which is not a measure of possession but shots at net) but doesn't reflect if those shots are high probability scoring chances. If you give a goalie like Hart a clear vision of a shooter from a distance, he should stop practically every shot (same with Price). One thing Hart was better at last night was guiding those shots to a corner, instead of leaving them in front of the net.

So a key issue is whether you're giving them dangerous scoring opportunities that even top goalies will struggle to stop.

Ill give you that in an isolated impact, HDC need to be prevented more than a low percentage shot - i dont think thats arguable. But over the course of the game, these things tend to even themselves out. Both goalies in this series are capable of making low% saves, as demonstrated last night. However, Montreal's goals the other night werent necessarily high danger stuff - as you said - throw it on and crash the net stuff. Fight for rebounds and dont let the goalie square and re-set positioning and youre in a much better spot to score the goal.

I'll take Kotkaniemi/suzuki/whomever on a breakaway over 20-30 seconds of sustained pressure any day of the week.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

If you look at that heat chart, that's Montreal's MO in a nutshell, fire from anywhere while two forwards crash the net, so those shots around the net are probably a higher % of rebounds than most teams - Montreal is not very good at playmaking, but they're great at creating pressure around the crease.

If a significantly higher portion of those Slot Shots are Rebounds, that would be a big deal. For many Skaters, it can as much as double the probabilities some xG models spit out in the slot areas and even between the circles.

I might be able to check into this to see where they are relative to the league, but it's not going to be exact as this has to be proxied by time gaps.

 

[Swic21]

Haven’t read everything so could have been mentioned, but I actually loved the 4th line. Raffl brought some physicality and skill to that 4th line. Pitlick was a man possessed, and Thompson seemed to be a little pissed off all night which worked out well. Farabee won’t see the ice again this series. I think the Montreal forwards were a little too quick on him, and the big d men pushed him around. He has a little physical maturing to do.

 

[DancingPanther]

no no, Jojo. We have to make everyone believe the Flyers actually played well last night.

They did obviously. I mean....they won! What more do you want?!

 

[Starat327]

They did obviously. I mean....they won! What more do you want?!

coRsI cUP

 

[deadhead]

Ill give you that in an isolated impact, HDC need to be prevented more than a low percentage shot - i dont think thats arguable. But over the course of the game, these things tend to even themselves out. Both goalies in this series are capable of making low% saves, as demonstrated last night. However, Montreal's goals the other night werent necessarily high danger stuff - as you said - throw it on and crash the net stuff. Fight for rebounds and dont let the goalie square and re-set positioning and youre in a much better spot to score the goal.

I'll take Kotkaniemi/suzuki/whomever on a breakaway over 20-30 seconds of sustained pressure any day of the week.

High danger chances are breakaways, but also rebound shots.
Throw it on the net and crash is how you generate high danger chances if the D-men don't clear the crease.

"As originally defined by War On Ice, 'Scoring Chances' indicate shots attempts that are taken from areas of the ice where goals are more likely to be scored. Attempts made from the attacking team's neutral or defensive zones are excluded.
Inside the zone, a shot is assigned a value of 1,2 or 3, depending on where it was from. A rebound shot (defined as any attempt made within 3 seconds of another blocked, missed or saved attempt without a stoppage in play in between) adds a point to this value. A blocked shot decreases the value by 1.
'Scoring Chances' are any shot attempts with a final value of 2 or higher. 'High-Danger Scoring Chances' are any shot attempt with a final value of 3 or higher."

Advanced Hockey Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com