Post-Game Talk: ECQF 3 (Flyers lead series 2-1): FLYERS 1 vs. Canadiens 0, Sunday, Aug. 16, 2020

[BernieParent]

Funny how that works out. We gave them a draft pick AND the ability to absolutely trash him every time he's on the ice against them.

Now, none of us could have foreseen us aging against MTL in the playoffs, but this like paying to bend over, then paying extra for no lube.

I loathe even writing this but which 4C are we talking about: Grant or Thompson?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

@deadhead This is /60

So on the high side, but not an outlier or anything. The gap in the range of teams just isn't very big overall. And again, these are proxied. It shouldn't be taken as gospel.

The Bruins being where they are is interesting to me, though.

 

[DancingPanther]

Giroux, Coots, Sanhero, and Myers dominated last night btw

~90% xGF for the Coots line and ~80% for Sanmyers SVA. That's fun. Luckily Tommy boy saw 9 min of 5v5 ice last night

 

[Starat327]

High danger chances are breakaways, but also rebound shots.
Throw it on the net and crash is how you generate high danger chances if the D-men don't clear the crease.

"As originally defined by War On Ice, 'Scoring Chances' indicate shots attempts that are taken from areas of the ice where goals are more likely to be scored. Attempts made from the attacking team's neutral or defensive zones are excluded.
Inside the zone, a shot is assigned a value of 1,2 or 3, depending on where it was from. A rebound shot (defined as any attempt made within 3 seconds of another blocked, missed or saved attempt without a stoppage in play in between) adds a point to this value. A blocked shot decreases the value by 1.
'Scoring Chances' are any shot attempts with a final value of 2 or higher. 'High-Danger Scoring Chances' are any shot attempt with a final value of 3 or higher."

Advanced Hockey Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

So, based on that then HD shots - at least, the ones that are generated off rebounds - cant be attributed to players because they player isnt in control of the rebound. Forwards would not - on most cases - being the ones clearing the crease, so dont you think it makes it a little bit of a disingenuous model when attmepting to measure someones defensive impact - or at the very least, a forward's defensive impact?

 

[Starat327]

@deadhead This is /60

So on the high side, but not an outlier or anything. The gap in the range of teams just isn't very big overall. And again, these are proxied. It shouldn't be taken as gospel.

The Bruins being where they are is interesting to me, though.

The bruins look like someone forgot to enter the data into the spreadsheet the chart is reading data for, lol.

If im reading that right, the bruins only allow low % shots that their goalies can cover, but they also only take low % shots that the other teams goalies cover?

 

[landsbergfan]

After a night's sleep.

Fire AV
Fire Therrien
Fire Yeo
Fire Lappy
Fire Chuck
Jettison Kev dog to the moon.
Banish Grant and Thompson into the netherworld.
Hire Danny B for GM
Lavy Round 2
Free Ghost
Free Bee
Free Bunny
Free Frosty

Thank you for your time.

JVR sticking around should make everyone happy

 

[JojoTheWhale]

The bruins look like someone forgot to enter the data into the spreadsheet the chart is reading data for, lol.

If im reading that right, the bruins only allow low % shots that their goalies can cover, but they also only take low % shots that the other teams goalies cover?

It could also be that the Bruins are more likely to take a Rebound, pull it back out, and set up again even at 5v5. The way these are proxied is by gap of time between Shots, so it's only attempting to measure Shots that are also Rebounds.

 

[Starat327]

It could also be that the Bruins are more likely to take a Rebound, pull it back out, and set up again even at 5v5. The way these are proxied is by gap of time between Shots, so it's only attempting to measure Shots that are also Rebounds.

Makes sense - but the philosophy seems backwards, no? IF the 'high danger' area is within the goal crease/slot ish (presumably where most rebounds go), doesnt it seem silly to try to revert back to some PP-esque setup, provided the other team isnt crowding the crease?

To be clear, i mean this in a thought exercise way, not that you are insinuating what the Bruins do is correct.

 

[Rebels57]

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Makes sense - but the philosophy seems backwards, no? IF the 'high danger' area is within the goal crease/slot ish (presumably where most rebounds go), doesnt it seem silly to try to revert back to some PP-esque setup, provided the other team isnt crowding the crease?

To be clear, i mean this in a thought exercise way, not that you are insinuating what the Bruins do is correct.

Yes, I find it super weird and I'm going to investigate it more thoroughly when I have time because these are the kinds of things that interest me.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

The goalies won't be changing. LOL

Thompson makes his presence known LOLMAO

 

[TB87]

Grant can PK. Doesn’t offer much else besides that (see: a serious lack of speed).


Thompson’s just doing this out there basically:

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

High danger chances are breakaways, but also rebound shots.
Throw it on the net and crash is how you generate high danger chances if the D-men don't clear the crease.

"As originally defined by War On Ice, 'Scoring Chances' indicate shots attempts that are taken from areas of the ice where goals are more likely to be scored. Attempts made from the attacking team's neutral or defensive zones are excluded.
Inside the zone, a shot is assigned a value of 1,2 or 3, depending on where it was from. A rebound shot (defined as any attempt made within 3 seconds of another blocked, missed or saved attempt without a stoppage in play in between) adds a point to this value. A blocked shot decreases the value by 1.
'Scoring Chances' are any shot attempts with a final value of 2 or higher. 'High-Danger Scoring Chances' are any shot attempt with a final value of 3 or higher."

Advanced Hockey Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

I totally understand this whole discussion about shot metrics and stuff without any difficulty whatsoever. I especially understand the graphs and charts, but mostly the graphs.

 

[Rebels57]

Thompson is averaging a minute more at ES than Grant, NAK and JVR.

NHL.com Stats

Hakstol 2.0

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

JVR sticking around should make everyone happy

Except the lunch lady. She's f***ed.

 

[Rebels57]

I posted about it last night but thought about it again this morning.

This next game is going to determine who wins the series. Obviously there’s a huge difference between 3-1 and 2-2 normally but it’s only going to be magnified more this year with the back to back.

They’re going to give Elliott a start in one out of these next three games. I can’t see them rolling out Hart for 3 games in 4 days. The same goes for the Habs and Price, although that one is much more likely.

You can either be up 3-1 with Price going on a back to back or 2-2 with very likely having to throw Elliott out there for a game in a best of three series at that point.

TL;DR Hold onto your butts as Elliott may determine our season.

I don't think there is any way they start Elliott in Game 5 if we lose Game 4. Ride or die with Hart. He's 22, he can handle it.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

I don't think there is any way they start Elliott in Game 5 if we lose Game 4. Ride or die with Hart. He's 22, he can handle it.

Then you're riding with a goalie on a back to back and then three in four, it's just a potentially scary situation.

 

[Curufinwe]

I loathe even writing this but which 4C are we talking about: Grant or Thompson?

By ES TOI, NateDog is the 3C.

Woof.

 

[kudymen]

The bruins look like someone forgot to enter the data into the spreadsheet the chart is reading data for, lol.

If im reading that right, the bruins only allow low % shots that their goalies can cover, but they also only take low % shots that the other teams goalies cover?

It says that the Bruins have Chára but they by default fear that the opposition has their own Chára as well

Hashtag Nobel prize in statistics

 

[Rebels57]

By ES TOI, NateDog is the 3C.

Woof.

We always think things will get better after we get rid of bad players, whether it be Umberger or Weise or VandeVelde, but then the next season starts and it happens all over again. It's really unbelievable.

 

[Starat327]

Then you're riding with a goalie on a back to back and then three in four, it's just a potentially scary situation.

I think if the Flyers dont win the next game, they throw Hart to the wolves. If they go up 3-1 I imagine they feel a little better about putting Elliott in, especially if they can actually start game-planning something that works.

 

[Here4ThaLids]

 

[DancingPanther]

By ES TOI, NateDog is the 3C.

Woof.

Ah buddy, he was 2C last night. Only center who saw more 5v5 ice time was Coots

Coots: 11:30
Tommy: 11:10
Hayes: 10:55

 

[Starat327]

We always think things will get better after we get rid of bad players, whether it be Umberger or Weise or VandeVelde, but then the next season starts and it happens all over again. It's really unbelievable.

Theres always going to be bad players and scapegoats - especially with this fanbase - but if we can go back to the time where we used to complain about having someone like Raffl on the roster, that would be ideal, i think.

Curious to see the number of people who were bashing the shit out of the Raffl signing now being thankful hes here too. This wasnt meant as a shot at you (i dont recall your Raffl-Stance, tbh), just a general observation.

 

[Curufinwe]

Talbot and Kuemper have started back to back games already.

NHL.com Stats