Salary Cap: Dylan McIlrath

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

Says the guy who has never seen him play outside of 2 games. Lmao. You're hilarious

You can think he's ridiculous, but its certainly clear the Ranger brass aren't sold on him being ready for a full-time spot with the big club.

 

[SA16]

I agree with you when it comes to forwards and offensive defensemen because there are all sorts of elements to consider such as super elite players like Crosby and Malkin boosting team shooting percentages. But the number one way to stop the other team from scoring is to keep them from getting shots. There's no wiggle room there. Klein does a really, really poor job at preventing shots by the other team.

Agreed that is the number one (and preferable) way but that doesn't mean it's the only way. You also would need to look at quality of shots allowed based on location, angle, handedness, positioning and many other things to get a full picture. If you could show a heat map showing precisely how Klein gives up shots and compare that to someone else in addition to comparing corsis that would go a long way.

One thing to think about is say you put five forwards on the ice and zero defenseman. Chances are the two forwards in the D-spot would put up decent corsis because they should be much better at controlling play in the offensive zone and generating chances but they would likely be awful on odd man rushes and very scrambly in their own zone.

 

[Zil]

One thing to think about is say you put five forwards on the ice and zero defenseman. Chances are the two forwards in the D-spot would put up decent corsis because they should be much better at controlling play in the offensive zone and generating chances but they would likely be awful on odd man rushes and very scrambly in their own zone.

I don't know about that because Stralman's possession numbers come from precision breakout passing and neutral zone defense. Blue Blooded can speak to this with more authority than I can, but Stralman forces dump ins at a very high rate which leads to far fewer shots on goal. I don't think a random forward is going to replicate his shot suppression abilities.

 

[Tawnos]

I don't know about that because Stralman's possession numbers come from precision breakout passing and neutral zone defense. Blue Blooded can speak to this with more authority than I can, but Stralman forces dump ins at a very high rate which leads to far fewer shots on goal. I don't think a random forward is going to replicate his shot suppression abilities.

I know you aren't talking about Klein here, but I'd like to point something out. With the Rangers, Klein was on the ice for 0.95 shots per minute of ES play. Stralman was on the ice for 0.78 shot attempts per minute of ES play. It represents a 17% difference between the players. On the surface, that's a pretty big deal, especially when you consider that Stralman played the tougher competition. The problem I see with it is that Stralman was also playing with a vastly superior defensive player than Klein was. Which, again, is just a part of a huge issue with any of these stats.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Seriously. Klein was playing with JOHN ****ING MOORE.

 

[Zil]

I know you aren't talking about Klein here, but I'd like to point something out. With the Rangers, Klein was on the ice for 0.95 shots per minute of ES play. Stralman was on the ice for 0.78 shot attempts per minute of ES play. It represents a 17% difference between the players. On the surface, that's a pretty big deal, especially when you consider that Stralman played the tougher competition. The problem I see with it is that Stralman was also playing with a vastly superior defensive player than Klein was. Which, again, is just a part of a huge issue with any of these stats.

Seriously. Klein was playing with JOHN ****ING MOORE.

Except that as I've posted before, Stralman improves the possession numbers of basically every teammate he shares the ice with. When Klein hits the ice, his team's possession numbers drop and that includes his time in Nashville. The Predators' already poor possession game got worse when his shifts came up. And if you're so worried about quality of teammates and opposition, they have weighted possession stats for both of those.

 

[offdacrossbar]

Seriously. Klein was playing with JOHN ****ING MOORE.

.

So much John Moore hate.

He's 23 yrs old and playing meaningful nhl minutes and learning on the job. Just played 4 playoff series including a scf.

Considering the brain fart defense played by Girard and staal in the scf, I laugh at the criticism. Like Moore is the only guy who makes bad reads and scrambles around.

Then we make all kinds of excuses for other young defenseman that can't make an nhl roster and haven't yet shown enough game to even be considered a viable nhl dman. Patience everyone says. Have patience.

Its a bad joke.

 

[Tawnos]

Except that as I've posted before, Stralman improves the possession numbers of basically every teammate he shares the ice with. When Klein hits the ice, his team's possession numbers drop and that includes his time in Nashville. The Predators' already poor possession game got worse when his shifts came up. And if you're so worried about quality of teammates and opposition, they have weighted possession stats for both of those.

Thanks for not addressing my point, which is about shot suppression.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

.

So much John Moore hate.

He's 23 yrs old and playing meaningful nhl minutes and learning on the job. Just played 4 playoff series including a scf.

Considering the brain fart defense played by Girard and staal in the scf, I laugh at the criticism. Like Moore is the only guy who makes bad reads and scrambles around.

Then we make all kinds of excuses for other young defenseman that can't make an nhl roster and haven't yet shown enough game to even be considered a viable nhl dman. Patience everyone says. Have patience.

Its a bad joke.

And? He's still not a good player. Klein at least steadies him.

 

[Beacon]

.

So much John Moore hate.

He's 23 yrs old and playing meaningful nhl minutes and learning on the job. Just played 4 playoff series including a scf.

Considering the brain fart defense played by Girard and staal in the scf, I laugh at the criticism. Like Moore is the only guy who makes bad reads and scrambles around.

Then we make all kinds of excuses for other young dmen who can't make an nhl roster and haven't yet shown enough game to even be considered a viable nhl dman. Patience everyone says. Have patience.

Its a bad joke.

This. Quoted for truth and in hope that people will re-read it.

If he were a bit worse and played in the AHL as a 23-year-old All Star there, people would be salivating right now. Someone in the prospects poll mentioned that whenever the fans see a young player, his stock immediately drops. So Jesper Fast was great... until it turned out that he's still learning and has some flaws that need to be fixed (as opposed to Skjei, Duclair, Buchnevich, etc who were never seen playing against NHLers, so they are presumed to be flawless).

 

[Mikos87]

And? He's still not a good player. Klein at least steadies him.

QFT. Sick and tired of how many OT playoff games the Rangers lost with JMoore not checking his man or being weak on the puck the last two playoffs.

Need a player in that slot that won't turn the puck over when feeling pressured.

 

[offdacrossbar]

And? He's still not a good player. Klein at least steadies him.

He made great strides after Klein arrived. I'm pretty sure the staff said carry the puck. Don't play safe. Shoot the puck and play with confidence. And he did all that.

While his defensive game still is sometimes cringe worthy, he certainly showed me that he's got tools and I think he's convinced the staff as well.

I expect a much better John Moore next year and I expect many here to still whine about him.

 

[Mikos87]

I expect a much better John Moore next year and I expect many here to still whine about him.

All he has to do is put on the muscle he dropped last year and get back to being physical along the boards like he was after the CLB trade. That would be a big step. He was sheltered in the playoffs for the reason.

Guy made a big mistake coming into camp 10 lbs under and was wrecked by grinders all season long and started turning pucks over cause he was afraid of getting hit. That's gotta change.

Girardi on the other hand could stand to lose a few lbs and carry less weight around.

 

[Cassano]

How has John Moore's game steadied? He's still the same liability he was pre-Klein.

 

[Zil]

Thanks for not addressing my point, which is about shot suppression.

"The problem I see with it is that Stralman was also playing with a vastly superior defensive player than Klein was. Which, again, is just a part of a huge issue with any of these stats."

You don't trust the shot suppression measurements because Stralman had a better partner. I don't know what else to tell you other than to look at the adjusted stats. Stralman's not a product of Staal. Staal posted by far his best possession numbers in recent years playing with Stralman this season. Stralman posted a higher corsi than Staal in the playoffs, which means he was even better in his odd shifts away from Staal.

Look, you can buy the numbers or not buy the numbers. The advanced metrics do not make Klein look good no matter which way you look at them. They were bad when he was paired with John Moore and they were bad when he was on Nashville. If you really want the ins and outs of why this is, then ask Ail or Blue Blood. Or you could continue to assert that you've found the hole in the advanced stats that lets you ignore them and the fact that poor possession players make for poor possession teams, which do not win Stanley Cups.

 

[Tawnos]

"The problem I see with it is that Stralman was also playing with a vastly superior defensive player than Klein was. Which, again, is just a part of a huge issue with any of these stats."

You don't trust the shot suppression measurements because Stralman had a better partner. I don't know what else to tell you other than to look at the adjusted stats. Stralman's not a product of Staal. Staal posted by far his best possession numbers in recent years playing with Stralman this season. Stralman posted a higher corsi than Staal in the playoffs, which means he was even better in his odd shifts away from Staal.

Look, you can buy the numbers or not buy the numbers. The advanced metrics do not make Klein look good no matter which way you look at them. They were bad when he was paired with John Moore and they were bad when he was on Nashville. If you really want the ins and outs of why this is, then ask Ail or Blue Blood. Or you could continue to assert that you've found the hole in the advanced stats that lets you ignore them and the fact that poor possession players make for poor possession teams, which do not win Stanley Cups.

The context of the point you are quoting is shot suppression. You, once again, are veering off into possession, which is a broader topic that has to do with 3-zone play, rather than half-ice play.

Good defensive pairs are not a product of one player or the other. They are a product of the two player's skillsets working well in tandem. Staal wasn't a product of Stralman. Stralman wasn't a product of Staal. Their work on the ice was a product of both of them.

Staal posted his best possession numbers this year, no doubt. But I also thought that his active stick was far better this season at causing attacking players havoc than any other season. Where does that show up in the numbers? You simply can't use possession stats to evaluate a player whose entire game rests on his abilities without the puck. It's inapplicable.

 

[slipknottin]

You can think he's ridiculous, but its certainly clear the Ranger brass aren't sold on him being ready for a full-time spot with the big club.

They have him competition of a 38 year old. Sounds like they very much think he will be contributing soon.

 

[Zil]

The context of the point you are quoting is shot suppression. You, once again, are veering off into possession, which is a broader topic that has to do with 3-zone play, rather than half-ice play.

Stralman's suppression mostly comes from neutral zone play. He forces dump-ins at a very high rate. This has been true for three years. He has not been partnered with Staal for all of those years. I don't know how else to put it. Blue Blooded compiles all of this kind of stuff.

Good defensive pairs are not a product of one player or the other. They are a product of the two player's skillsets working well in tandem. Staal wasn't a product of Stralman. Stralman wasn't a product of Staal. Their work on the ice was a product of both of them.

There are definitely tandem aspects to it, but a Stralman helped Staal this year more than vice versa.

Staal posted his best possession numbers this year, no doubt. But I also thought that his active stick was far better this season at causing attacking players havoc than any other season. Where does that show up in the numbers?

If it has a big impact it shows up in the number of shots against and dump-ins forced versus carry-ins allowed.

You simply can't use possession stats to evaluate a player whose entire game rests on his abilities without the puck. It's inapplicable.

No player's entire game rests on play without the puck. Playing well without the puck means limiting opponent shots and quickly forcing play back the other way. If you can't do those things, you're ****ed.

Look, we can revisit this during the season. Either Staal will maintain that 54.4% CF% he posted with Stralman or he won't.

 

[Tawnos]

Look, we can revisit this during the season. Either Staal will maintain that 54.4% CF% he posted with Stralman or he won't.

We should, but keep in mind... it's perfectly possible that Staal's Corsi will be lower and his defensive pair will have a better season. It's also possible that it will be higher and they'll have a worse season.

 

[Zil]

We should, but keep in mind... it's perfectly possible that Staal's Corsi will be lower and his defensive pair will have a better season. It's also possible that it will be higher and they'll have a worse season.

It's possible to have a better season as a pairing with a worse corsi? I don't see how. A worse shot differential leads to a worse goal differential over the long run. If they wind up spending more time in their own zone than last year, that's a bad thing.

 

[Tawnos]

It's possible to have a better season as a pairing with a worse corsi? I don't see how. A worse shot differential leads to a worse goal differential over the long run. If they wind up spending more time in their own zone than last year, that's a bad thing.

If Staal's Corsi drops to 52% and the pairing with Boyle puts up 35 ES points, with both players in the plus margin, I'll consider it a better season for the pairing. Worse shot differential, but still positive, doesn't always mean worse goal differential when you have a player with Boyle's offensive acumen on the ice. He can turn a play into a scoring chance in ways that Stralman wasn't able to for the Rangers and that can happen very fast.

It depends, but here I am once again expounding on how Corsi isn't the end of the conversation.

 

[Zil]

If Staal's Corsi drops to 52% and the pairing with Boyle puts up 35 ES points, with both players in the plus margin, I'll consider it a better season for the pairing. Worse shot differential, but still positive, doesn't always mean worse goal differential when you have a player with Boyle's offensive acumen on the ice. He can turn a play into a scoring chance in ways that Stralman wasn't able to for the Rangers and that can happen very fast.

It depends, but here I am once again expounding on how Corsi isn't the end of the conversation.

Boyle put up 36 points total last season. Only 18 of those came at even strength. All 13 of Stralman's came at even strength. And keep in mind, Boyle played with a more dangerous, higher scoring set of forwards. You're not looking at much of an offensive bump 5-on-5 for that pairing.

 

[Tawnos]

Boyle put up 36 points total last season. Only 18 of those came at even strength. All 13 of Stralman's came at even strength. And keep in mind, Boyle played with a more dangerous, higher scoring set of forwards. You're not looking at much of an offensive bump 5-on-5 for that pairing.

The 35 points was for the pairing, not for Boyle. Last year's 2nd pairing put up 25 even strength points. Boyle's presence should lead to a little more output from Staal. A 10 point bump from the defense, at even strength only, is significant and well worth a 2% drop in Corsi.

 

[Zil]

The 35 points was for the pairing, not for Boyle. Last year's 2nd pairing put up 25 even strength points. Boyle's presence should lead to a little more output from Staal. A 10 point bump from the defense, at even strength only, is significant and well worth a 2% drop in Corsi.

His corsi might drop a whole lot more than that and I really don't expect Staal's point totals to increase much if at all. You're overestimating what Boyle brings at even strength.

 

[Swept In Seven]

I still think that Moore is better than MDZ