Dreger: Duchene Mega-thread: Habs, NSH inquired about Duchene. Asking price is ridiculous.

[ThirdManIn]

asking price is not ridiculous. Duchene is a 70 point player on a competent team

I hate this argument.

Matt Duchene is the player he is regardless of the team he is on. Competency of his team shouldn't be taken into account. If we are negotiating and you bring that to me, the first thing I'm going to ask you is why you're making excuses for him. The guy has scored at around a 61 point pace for his career. He does have a 70 point season, a 67 point season, and then the 75 point pace he put up in the lockout year. Why are you making excuses for him? If I'm giving up quality assets I don't want someone trying to tell me that all the guy I'm getting back needs is good players around him to help carry him along. That makes it sound like I'm getting a guy who my team needs to make better and not a guy who makes my team better.

The defenseman I'm going to offer is probably going to be one of Colorado's top 3 best defensemen, but I'm not going to say "he could be your best defenseman if" and list some things that might make that true. The prospect I'm going to offer is probably going to be a regular NHL player, and potentially a pretty good one at that. I'm not going to say, "if your farm system knows how to develop him correctly." The first I'm going to offer could end up being anything from a bust to a superstar, but I'm not going to say, "if your scouting department actually knows how to look at the small things that indicate a quality player."

 

[paulhiggins]

Numbers aren't everything but he's been putting up Tyler Bozak numbers the last few years so don't expect a superstar return.

 

[Captain Mountain]

I'm an Avs fan but if I was a Habs fan, I'd pony up Sergachev. Duchene isn't guaranteed to be the piece that puts them over the top but I'd risk it. Plus he'll be there 2 more years to try to bring home the cup. It's been almost 25 years since the Habs won the cup. If they let this window close, it might be 25 more. There's no guarantee Rads will be back, this is prime time for Weber and Price. Markov will be done shortly. I guess Habs fans need to ask themselves if they're legit contenders as is or with a lesser piece than Duchene. I'd risk losing a potential top 2 dman for a couple shots at the cup.

Duchene helps the team, as he would any team, but he is not the perfect fit or the missing piece. If they are a contender, they're a contender. If they aren't a contender, he doesn't make them one. Personally, I'd rather go after a more defensive oriented center that will invariably cost less. And by all accounts, Bergevin isn't ready right now to trade Sergachev. I think Montreal believes Sergachev isn't far off from making an impact too. Cap flexibility in the future is incredibly important and ELC contributors help a lot with that.

I have concerns, but I think Hanzal is who Bergevin really wants. Someone with size, physicality and defensive acumen. And its going to be an interesting Free Agency period next year, with a flat cap and an expansion draft. May as well see who else may be in play.

 

[JoemAvs]

I hate this argument.

Matt Duchene is the player he is regardless of the team he is on. Competency of his team shouldn't be taken into account. If we are negotiating and you bring that to me, the first thing I'm going to ask you is why you're making excuses for him. The guy has scored at around a 61 point pace for his career. He does have a 70 point season, a 67 point season, and then the 75 point pace he put up in the lockout year. Why are you making excuses for him? If I'm giving up quality assets I don't want someone trying to tell me that all the guy I'm getting back needs is good players around him to help carry him along. That makes it sound like I'm getting a guy who my team needs to make better and not a guy who makes my team better.

The defenseman I'm going to offer is probably going to be one of Colorado's top 3 best defensemen, but I'm not going to say "he could be your best defenseman if" and list some things that might make that true. The prospect I'm going to offer is probably going to be a regular NHL player, and potentially a pretty good one at that. I'm not going to say, "if your farm system knows how to develop him correctly." The first I'm going to offer could end up being anything from a bust to a superstar, but I'm not going to say, "if your scouting department actually knows how to look at the small things that indicate a quality player."

Of course he is the same player he has always been. Poile knows this. Sakic knows this. The Preds have a professional scouting report on Duchene and a pretty good idea what kind of player he is.

Trade board on hfboards? Not so much.

If you don't put up the points because of circumstances that are not under your control, you get crazily underrated.

Just like Duchene is in here.

Scouting 101. Numbers matter only so much.

Duchene has shown that he can produce in this league under the right circumstances aka being on a winning team (and even then we had a bottom 5 D) and not on the trainwreck that has been the Avs for quite some time now (we really weren't good under Roy either. We just had great goaltending and not as much key injuries as right now).

There are no reasons really why he shouldn't produce more on a good NSH team than on a terrible Avs team.

There were no major injuries really that could have slowed him down and his top seasons weren't a fluke like with some other players.

Poile knows this. Sakic knows this. Hfboards? Not so much.


Duchene has been an elite 5vs5 producer since the lockout. I think he is top10 in that regard since the lockout.
Problem is that the Avs have been terrible on the PP and Duchene hasn't scored enough there to make his numbers look better.

Poile knows this. Sakic knows this. hfboards? Not so much.


That is why this gets brought up repeatedly.

Duchene is severely underrated atleast judging by most proposals in here.

That is a valid topic when it comes to discussing trade value...

 

[Foppberg]

Of course he is the same player he has always been. Poile knows this. Sakic knows this. The Preds have a professional scouting report on Duchene and a pretty good idea what kind of player he is.

Trade board on hfboards? Not so much.

If you don't put up the points because of circumstances that are not under your control, you get crazily underrated.

Just like Duchene is in here.

Scouting 101. Numbers matter only so much.

Duchene has shown that he can produce in this league under the right circumstances aka being on a winning team (and even then we had a bottom 5 D) and not on the trainwreck that has been the Avs for quite some time now (we really weren't good under Roy either. We just had great goaltending and not as much key injuries as right now).

There are no reasons really why he shouldn't produce more on a good NSH team than on a terrible Avs team.

There were no major injuries really that could have slowed him down and his top seasons weren't a fluke like with some other players.

Poile knows this. Sakic knows this. Hfboards? Not so much.


Duchene has been an elite 5vs5 producer since the lockout. I think he is top10 in that regard since the lockout.
Problem is that the Avs have been terrible on the PP and Duchene hasn't scored enough there to make his numbers look better.

Poile knows this. Sakic knows this. hfboards? Not so much.


That is why this gets brought up repeatedly.

Duchene is severely underrated atleast judging by most proposals in here.

That is a valid topic when it comes to discussing trade value...

Annnd boom goes the dynamite!

 

[covfefe]

I hate this argument.

Matt Duchene is the player he is regardless of the team he is on. Competency of his team shouldn't be taken into account. If we are negotiating and you bring that to me, the first thing I'm going to ask you is why you're making excuses for him. The guy has scored at around a 61 point pace for his career. He does have a 70 point season, a 67 point season, and then the 75 point pace he put up in the lockout year. Why are you making excuses for him? If I'm giving up quality assets I don't want someone trying to tell me that all the guy I'm getting back needs is good players around him to help carry him along. That makes it sound like I'm getting a guy who my team needs to make better and not a guy who makes my team better.

It's hardly an excuse nor a reach to say Duchene would have more points on a stronger offensive team, which at this point would be any other team in the league.

 

[Soedy]

Theres a reason he was on the Team Canada roster the last 3 times. Sure, he only played on the 4th line but the nomination alone show that he can play some good hockey.

 

[puckluck33*]

Bergevin will not trade Sergachev....GUARANTEED....he will make smaller moves like Patrick Eaves one of the best wrist shots in hockey,he will help with secondary scoring and Patrik Berglund who will help the penalty kill both in the last year of their contracts.

 

[strictlyrandy]

Montreal should trade Sergachev for Duchene. He helps their Cup window right now. It sucks but that's a move I'd make 10 times out of 10.

I do think the Habs stand pat though. I think it's the Hurricanes that end up moving for Duchene in the end.

 

[Bubba Thudd]

Bergevin will not trade Sergachev....GUARANTEED....he will make smaller moves like Patrick Eaves one of the best wrist shots in hockey,he will help with secondary scoring and Patrik Berglund who will help the penalty kill both in the last year of their contracts.

^^^ Take note of this Avs fans. ^^^

This guy obviously knows an adult who knows Bergevin.

Otherwise, he wouldn't be able to "GUARANTEE" that Sergachev won't be traded.

 

[ThirdManIn]

:snip:

All of this is fine for justifying why bad trade proposals based on a couple of seasons worth of stats are bad. However, I still find the argument that a player will definitely do (insert thing that isn't based on anything other than speculation) on a competent team to be a poor argument. If I'm offering, for instance, Ekholm + Fabbro + 2017 1st round pick why can't I turn around and start throwing out things that are based on nothing more than pure speculation to start working that down to Ekholm + Smith + a third? All I'm saying is there is enough there to shoot down bad offers without the "he would definitely have a career year on your team" promise that can't be kept.

 

[falconski]

^^^ Take note of this Avs fans. ^^^

This guy obviously knows an adult who knows Bergevin.

Otherwise, he wouldn't be able to "GUARANTEE" that Sergachev won't be traded.

it's almost like we haven't seen this before: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1863393

 

[Big Bad Zad]

it's almost like we haven't seen this before: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1863393

No thanks from Buffalo.

Cue the Av fans lecturing everyone on how great ROR is and how no one could begin to understand his greatness.

One of my favorite ones

 

[Foppberg]

That thread is glorious.

 

[JoemAvs]

All of this is fine for justifying why bad trade proposals based on a couple of seasons worth of stats are bad. However, I still find the argument that a player will definitely do (insert thing that isn't based on anything other than speculation) on a competent team to be a poor argument. If I'm offering, for instance, Ekholm + Fabbro + 2017 1st round pick why can't I turn around and start throwing out things that are based on nothing more than pure speculation to start working that down to Ekholm + Smith + a third? All I'm saying is there is enough there to shoot down bad offers without the "he would definitely have a career year on your team" promise that can't be kept.

Yeah well every trade is a risk.

But the case for Duchene producing way more in NSH IMO is way more convincing than that the one that says that he would not.

That has nothing to do with speculation. It is simply projecting a likely outcome.


I mean Ekholm + Fabbro + 1st is a terrible offer if we apply your logic.

Because Fabbro + 1st turning into useful NHL players right now is just merely speculation.

Might as well assume they will be busts and value them at 0.

Is that reasonable?
No.

Is it reasonable to assume that Duchene would only score 50 points for a good team?
No.




I am not sure that he would have a career year. I mean he basically already had a PPG season (got hurt in game 71 2 mins in).

But IMO he would absolutely be in contention for being your best forward all things considered. Who knows what that means numberswise.

Don't really care.

Its just laughable that people throw out RNH and Bozak comparisons just because the Numbers on an epically bad team that hasn't been good for a while and is a complete trainwreck right now are not good enough...

 

[bleuetbio]

There's no guaretee that a guy that relies on as much energy as Subban does ages as well as a guy like Weber anyways so Nashville hasn't one the trade in the future either.

Well thats 100% subjective...

You both rights but the fact is we talk about a Cup window of two years since that trade. I think it not a secret for everybody that Subban has a lot of chances to dig the spread between the value with the years to come. Thats why I consider we should have a younger asset included in the trade to balance. Maybe im wrong. Only future will tell

Preds fan here saying I hate Subban and would much rather have kept Weber. Poile got robbed there

Well, like I said, this is the kind of trade that we cannot analyse only after 6 months. All your club has to find himself right now, its a kind of mass hysteria.

 

[CHaracter79]

Landeskog
duchene


for

pacioretty
sergachev
mccaron
1st

 

[CHaracter79]

Yeah well every trade is a risk.

But the case for Duchene producing way more in NSH IMO is way more convincing than that the one that says that he would not.

That has nothing to do with speculation. It is simply projecting a likely outcome.


I mean Ekholm + Fabbro + 1st is a terrible offer if we apply your logic.

Because Fabbro + 1st turning into useful NHL players right now is just merely speculation.

Might as well assume they will be busts and value them at 0.

Is that reasonable?
No.

Is it reasonable to assume that Duchene would only score 50 points for a good team?
No.




I am not sure that he would have a career year. I mean he basically already had a PPG season (got hurt in game 71 2 mins in).

But IMO he would absolutely be in contention for being your best forward all things considered. Who knows what that means numberswise.

Don't really care.

Its just laughable that people throw out RNH and Bozak comparisons just because the Numbers on an epically bad team that hasn't been good for a while and is a complete trainwreck right now are not good enough...

so if pacioretty played elsewhere.. with a real center.. say.. mcdavid or backstrom... ed be a 50 goal 90 point player?

pacioretty has been producing at the same pace 36G-32A since the season prior to the lockout.

and most of that was with DD as his center. should his value be that of a player he could have been on another team with a real #1 center?

 

[ProspectsSTC]

Landeskog
duchene


for

pacioretty
sergachev
mccaron
1st

Pacioretty>Landeskog by quite a bit, the rest of it is probably fair value but no deal

 

[Foppberg]

Landeskog
duchene


for

pacioretty
sergachev
mccaron
1st

No thanks.

 

[JoemAvs]

so if pacioretty played elsewhere.. with a real center.. say.. mcdavid or backstrom... ed be a 50 goal 90 point player?

pacioretty has been producing at the same pace 36G-32A since the season prior to the lockout.

and most of that was with DD as his center. should his value be that of a player he could have been on another team with a real #1 center?

Has Pacioretty ever shown that he is capable of being that player?

Isn't Pacioretty already playing on a pretty decent team?

Also Pacioretty scoring 50 and getting 90 is unrealistic regardless of the team he plays on. He is not that good.

Nashville averages 2.75 / goals per game.
Avs are averaging 1.96 / goals per game.


It is not unreasonable to assume that Duchene would increase his scoring by looking at this metric alone once he gets to NSH.



Also hell no to your deal.

Avs have 0 interest in Pacioretty.

Give us Sergachev+++ for Duchene and lets be done with that.

 

[Go Wings]

Bergevin will not trade Sergachev....GUARANTEED....he will make smaller moves like Patrick Eaves one of the best wrist shots in hockey,he will help with secondary scoring and Patrik Berglund who will help the penalty kill both in the last year of their contracts.

That wont get Montreal a cup

 

[Pierre Lebrun]

Bergevin will not trade Sergachev....GUARANTEED....he will make smaller moves like Patrick Eaves one of the best wrist shots in hockey,he will help with secondary scoring and Patrik Berglund who will help the penalty kill both in the last year of their contracts.

Agree 100p on Eaves... they've (DAL and MTL) been connected for awhile as scouting each other and Eaves would be really decent middle 6 scoring punch for the run.

 

[puckluck33*]

That wont get Montreal a cup

Bringing in Duchene will not guarantee a cup either,Montreal has as good a chance as anybody to win the cup if Price plays the way he can.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Has Pacioretty ever shown that he is capable of being that player?

Isn't Pacioretty already playing on a pretty decent team?

Also Pacioretty scoring 50 and getting 90 is unrealistic regardless of the team he plays on. He is not that good.

Nashville averages 2.75 / goals per game.
Avs are averaging 1.96 / goals per game.


It is not unreasonable to assume that Duchene would increase his scoring by looking at this metric alone once he gets to NSH.



Also hell no to your deal.

Avs have 0 interest in Pacioretty.

Give us Sergachev+++ for Duchene and lets be done with that.

Only two players in the NHL have scored more goals than Pacioretty over the last five years. Ovechkin and Pavelski. I'm not sure why Pacioretty is so underrated, and I know 50/90 is unrealistic for anyone besides Ovechkin, but we're talking about one of the elite goalscorers in the NHL here.

As for Duchene being better on Nashville, that's highly debatable. Its not like Duchene plays with scrubs in Colorado, he doesn't really play incredibly tough minutes and he gets in general a more favourable zone start push relative to his team. And while Colorado isn't producing, Duchene and his linemates do what you can reasonably expect them to.

I don't see how any team is going to give Duchene better linemates, and most aren't going to give him more favourable minutes either. And he's definitely not going to get the same TOI or prime scoring positions on a deeper team like Nashville (or Montreal).

Obviously he could be better on a better team, since he also wont target #1, but its more like a crapshoot than a slam dunk.


Counterproposal. We keep Segachev and a +, then trade the ++ to another team. You try to trade Duchene to another team.