Proposal: Dubois for Suzuki

[domiwroze]

Maybe some of the crazies on HF were doing that. I think most Jets fans were hoping/expecting Dubois to bounce back in a more "normal" year. He's done that.

The Jets traded their highest pick since the team came back to Winnipeg in Laine for Dubois. They weren't gonna ditch Dubois after a shortened COVID season, especially because the Jets don't seem to like to make trades unless their hands are tied.

Dubois having a resurgence this season shouldn't come as news to anyone. Turns out he's much more the player he looked like his first 3 seasons than what he was during the COVID bubble season. Unsurprisingly.

It is good to hear for the kid's sake. With that said, It doesn't make sense for mtl to give up Suzuki for a chance that PLD does the same job as Suzuki, under french media pressure, new city and with a subpar team.

It's just not a deal that make sense for any one and we can lose our time debating on whose the better player but the fact is that neither team should make this move. Too much risk for no real reward as they would offer the same result IF everything goes right.


But then again, Suzuki might do better than PLD with Connor on his wing instead of AHLers or Hoffman

 

[snowkiddin]

It is good to hear for the kid's sake. With that said, It doesn't make sense for mtl to give up Suzuki for a chance that PLD does the same job as Suzuki, under french media pressure, new city and with a subpar team.

It's just not a deal that make sense for any one and we can lose our time debating on whose the better player but the fact is that neither team should make this move. Too much risk for no real reward as they would offer the same result IF everything goes right.


But then again, Suzuki might do better than PLD with Connor on his wing instead of AHLers or Hoffman

Agreed. Makes no sense for either team, which is why I responded to Joe Habs Fan who seemed to think the Jets would’ve “danced in the street” for this six months ago when, point in case, neither team would be doing so.

 

[Guy Larose]

You are wasting your time proving facts on this board.

Fixed it for you. This whole board sucks when it comes to player evaluations and trade proposals.

 

[JoelWarlord]

And for the contract the Jets gave Scheifele, they ended up with a PPG #1C. If Suzuki doesn't turn out to be a #1C, he will be overpaid through his contract. I didn't think he would turn out to be one at the time of signing, thus I believe he's overpaid. Not sure what's controversial about this.

Well the main thing is it's not actually the kind of dollar figure where the player needs to be a solid 1C to be worth it. I think he will be a 1C (in the sense he will be in the top 32Cs in the league during his prime, not that I think he's a franchise/contender level 1C), but even if he's just a solid 2C the contract is still more than fine. If you think his likely projection is average to low-end 2C then I guess I understand the argument, I'm just more bullish on the player in general due to his defensive floor.

His AAV will already be the 22 to 24th highest salary among Cs by October 2022, (19th currently + Hertl, Kadri, Bergeron, Malkin, possibly Dubois), and then drop at least another three spots in Oct 2023 (Barzal, MacKinnon, O'Reilly), with Pettersson, Scheifele, and Lindholm coming in Oct 2024, and that's without accounting for any players like Zegras/Stutzle/Thomas/Lundell/Mercer/Cozens/Rossi having breakout years or big paydays. 31 months from now the Suzuki deal will already be out of the top 30C contracts and continue to fall while he's signed for 6 more years.

I don't really think it's a big deal if he's momentarily ahead of a bunch of guys on bridge deals or nearing the end of long term contracts from 5+ years ago when 7.8M is already going to be 2C money by year 3 of the contract with a pending cap windfall from when the escrow debt is paid off and the ESPN/TNT money bumps the cap by ~5-6M in a single offseason.

 

[HuGo Sham]

Fixed it for you. This whole board sucks when it comes to player evaluations and trade proposals.

truth

 

[Baksfamous112]

Maybe some of the crazies on HF were doing that. I think most Jets fans were hoping/expecting Dubois to bounce back in a more "normal" year. He's done that.

The Jets traded their highest pick since the team came back to Winnipeg in Laine for Dubois. They weren't gonna ditch Dubois after a shortened COVID season, especially because the Jets don't seem to like to make trades unless their hands are tied.

Yep and Montreal laughed at Columbus when the ask was Suzuki for PLD. It’s ok to like Dubois and be happy with him, but Suzuki’s better.

 

[TBF1972]

PLD is worth a lot in futures In a hockey trade he worth a top pairing D or a high end winger or a C with 1st line potential . I predict you will be offer a package of lessor parts that are underwhelming .

lesser parts?

strubble and norlinder. poehling and tuch. they are as bluest blue chips as zac jones.

 

[Habs Halifax]

And for the contract the Jets gave Scheifele, they ended up with a PPG #1C. If Suzuki doesn't turn out to be a #1C, he will be overpaid through his contract. I didn't think he would turn out to be one at the time of signing, thus I believe he's overpaid. Not sure what's controversial about this.

Saying that the Jets are cheap and won't give PLD a contract that you just said is equivalent to the Scheifele contract they plainly were willing to give a potential #1C seems a bit contradictory.

NO! Just cause Scheifele busted out and it becomes a value contract, it don't mean every other contract higher than Scheifele is garbage now. When Suzuki is half way through his contract, that cap hit is probably 2C rate.

I stand firm. Suzuki is probably overpaid in the 1st half and underpaid in the 2nd half. However, we as fans can't act like we can predict the future that well. Suzuki could stall or he could bust out. Every case is different and that's the risks you take in long term deals in a salary cap league. Dubois is not going to do the Jets any favors when you try to sign him for 4-8 year range. Reality

Today, I consider Suzuki a 30-40 range center. Fringe 1C and above average 2C. I feel Dubois is similar but they have different games. Different games but similar value. Other posters can nit pick what the differences are... have fun

 

[Habs Halifax]

please explain why you think the jets are cheap? trading for schmidt and stastny during a pandemic and spending to the cap since we were ready to compete says otherwise....

One example? Last season, they were the only team in the NHL to not have any July signing bonuses. I can post you my research if you wish? If not, good luck tracking the data cause you won't be able to find that on the internet in 5 min's.

It's not rocket science. They have a small market, small arena, and below average local TV revenue. Certainly not as bad as the Coyotes but don't kid yourself, Jets have no choice but to the frugal.

 

[gojetsgo]

One example? Last season, they were the only team in the NHL to not have any July signing bonuses. I can post you my research if you wish? If not, good luck tracking the data cause you won't be able to find that on the internet in 5 min's.

It's not rocket science. They have a small market, small arena, and below average local TV revenue. Certainly not as bad as the Coyotes but don't kid yourself, Jets have no choice but to the frugal.

that doesn't make them cheap... the player is getting the same amount of money, just not all at once... how are we being frugal when we spend to the cap each year....

 

[Habs Halifax]

that doesn't make them cheap... the player is getting the same amount of money, just not all at once... how are we being frugal when we spend to the cap each year....

It does make them cheap or if you are sensitive to that word... forced to be more frugal with the winning strategy and how they manage the money in the pot.

Don't worry, you're not the only team who avoids the July signing bonus money. It's ok

 

[gojetsgo]

It does make them cheap or if you are sensitive to that word... forced to be more frugal with the winning strategy and how they manage the money in the pot.

Don't worry, you're not the only team who avoids the July signing bonus money. It's ok

so jets a cap team are to cheap to pay pld 8 million a year because we don't give our signing bonuses

sensitive? no, I just find it stupid that your calling a cap team who brought in more contracts during a pandemic cheap...

 

[snowkiddin]

It does make them cheap or if you are sensitive to that word... forced to be more frugal with the winning strategy and how they manage the money in the pot.

Don't worry, you're not the only team who avoids the July signing bonus money. It's ok

That's fine but the context you provided was the Jets aren't gonna wanna sign PLD at $8 million because they are cheap, but you haven't given any supporting evidence to suggest this is the case. They're spending to the cap right now, so if they believe PLD is worth $8 million, then they'll pay him. Stastny or Copp's salary goes toward Dubois's raise and the "cheap" Jets are spending the same on salaries as they are this year.

 

[Habs Halifax]

so jets a cap team are to cheap to pay pld 8 million a year because we don't give our signing bonuses

Forking out millions in July before revenue comes in is a big deal for the Jets and several other teams. Players value that and get it wherever they can cause it's more investment time. Trends speak for themselves when you look at the contracts the Jets signed.

You're getting caught up into the word "cheap". Change it to "Required to be more Frugal".

 

[howkie]

It does make them cheap or if you are sensitive to that word... forced to be more frugal with the winning strategy and how they manage the money in the pot.

Don't worry, you're not the only team who avoids the July signing bonus money. It's ok

Blues avoided it for the longest and well, cant say Canadiens with all their bonuses are doing better...

 

[Habs Halifax]

That's fine but the context you provided was the Jets aren't gonna wanna sign PLD at $8 million because they are cheap, but you haven't given any supporting evidence to suggest this is the case. They're spending to the cap right now, so if they believe PLD is worth $8 million, then they'll pay him. Stastny or Copp's salary goes toward Dubois's raise and the "cheap" Jets are spending the same on salaries as they are this year.

Yes, that's where it started. I doubt they prefer to pay PLD more than the other top players on the same team. Bookmark it. I bet you the term is 3-5 years where they try to lower the AAV and also avoid July signing bonus money.

PLD would be your highest paid player after Wheeler. Ahead of Connor, Scheifele, Ehlers, Hellebuyck. Contract signed at different times yes but we will see how they mange it. PLD is not going to give any discounts in the 6-8 year term so if the Jets want a team friendly AAV, I think they look at 3-5 year range. Might top out around $6.5M ish for that range in term.

Bookmark it. I'm not sensitive to it if I'm wrong

 

[General Fanager]

Suzuki is better. Why would The Habs consider this?

 

[Habs Halifax]

Blues avoided it for the longest and well, cant say Canadiens with all their bonuses are doing better...

Not about doing better. It's about some teams revenue is higher than others. There is no need to be sensitive about it, it's reality. Avs and Canes also avoid it.

 

[gojetsgo]

Not about doing better. It's about some teams revenue is higher than others. There is no need to be sensitive about it, it's reality. Avs and Canes also avoid it.

just because people are saying you are wrong does not make them sensitive about it..

 

[Snowman]

That's fine but the context you provided was the Jets aren't gonna wanna sign PLD at $8 million because they are cheap, but you haven't given any supporting evidence to suggest this is the case. They're spending to the cap right now, so if they believe PLD is worth $8 million, then they'll pay him. Stastny or Copp's salary goes toward Dubois's raise and the "cheap" Jets are spending the same on salaries as they are this year.

Wow! He's really grasping at straws. He presents his argument, is proven uncategorically wrong by at least two posters and then tries changing his wording as if it makes what he is saying any more true. That's hilarious.

 

[Garbageyuk]

There you have it.

Let's lock this thing up.

“Oh no people might have a discussion and say things I don’t agree with, so I better whine to have the thread locked.” How about just don’t read the thread then.

 

[Habs Halifax]

just because people are saying you are wrong does not make them sensitive about it..

I do think there is some sensitivity at play. Facts are what they are. Jets have the smallest arena, play in one of the smaller markets, and have less local TV revenue than the average team. These are more like facts, not my opinion. I'm only speaking the context cause someone asked me to say why I think they are cheap. It's logical that they are forced to be more frugal than other teams with more revenue. Arguing against it is being sensitive IMO.

Will the Jets give PLD $8M for 8 years or will they try for the 3-5 year term around $6M - $7M range? Bookmark it

Lets agree to move on.. unless there is new information? Past is in the past so lets focus on new material now

 

[howkie]

Not about doing better. It's about some teams revenue is higher than others. There is no need to be sensitive about it, it's reality. Avs and Canes also avoid it.

Or Canadiens are bad at contracts and cave just like the Leafs. Why spend money when you dont need to. You will learn to about not spending millions in advance on bad products...

 

[Dust]

Suzuki is better. Why would The Habs consider this?

Based on what metrics? They have eerily similar stats, both regular season and playoffs.

I feel like the fact that both Jets and Habs fans think their guy is better, means the value is pretty good both ways.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Or Canadiens are bad at contracts and cave just like the Leafs. Why spend money when you dont need to. You will learn to about not spending millions in advance on bad products...

Sure, we have a few bloated contracts. The other angle is agents/players do push for the bigger market teams to fork out that money. Is it an advantage or a curse?

Like it or not, there are trends if you dig deep into it.