Confirmed with Link: Draisaitl re-signs 8y 8.5M AAV

[guymez]

It's definitely one of his biggest weaknesses, maybe him being a former player agent plays a role to some extent? I don't think he necessarily overpays a tonne, but all of these slight over payments, buyouts, etc. will cause challenges down the road for sure.

Thats Chiarellis history for sure. So I am with you....its a large part of what concerns me about the team moving forward.

I disagree Guymez. McDavid changed the landscape of the team (and League) with his epicness. Chia had to follow suit with the contract (s).

I see McDavid as a player that's on a different tier and not comparable to other players.
That being said you could well be right...his contract might be the game changer after all. It would have been interesting to be in the room when Draisaitl was negotiating his contract to see if the McDavid numbers played a major role.

 

[ThePhoenixx]

I am not sure I can make this any clearer for you than I already have.

I feel the same way. It's like you are ignoring that the cap has gone up since all those 6 million dollar deals.

A 6 mil contract with a 40 million dollar cap is not the same as an 8 million dollar contract with a 70 million dollar cap.

Look at the percentage of cap.

Draisatls' is the exact same percentage as when Toews signed his 6 million dollar contract. It is that simple.

 

[CupofOil]

Nope. What I am saying is that Chias job filling out the roster is about to get a lot tougher.

Did you not expect it to get tougher with McDavid and Drai due for new contract? Whether Drai's contract was $7.5M or $8.5M, the cap crunch was coming regardless. All teams with elite talents have to deal with this at some point and with the RFA market for forwards having been inflated the last several years, this especially affects teams with elite level young talent performing at a high level during the ELC.

The contracts that will cause issues are RNH, Lucic, Russell and to a lesser extent Sekera. Still LOTS of term left on those deals with three of those players being 30+ already and the other being overpaid for what he brings.

 

[guymez]

To me, the Klefbom and Larsson contracts completely cover the pressure that the McDavid and Drai contracts give. There is no excuse not to have a deep roster. The RNH situation is much bigger than the cap, and he needs to prove he's worth 6 million AAV whether we have cap space or not, and if we gained that 6 million in space it would basically remove our cap issues outright. Not only that, but I think Chia will find a way to keep RNH if he can prove he's worth his cash this season.

Every team out there has an identity based around their weaknesses as much as their strengths. The cap ensures that no one can have it all. Pittsburgh won the cup with big contracts surrounded by small ones, all while missing Letang.

As for Chicago, they were #1 in the west this year. They are still a great team. Getting swept in the playoffs doesn't take away from that, and I don't see how you could show that the cap is the reason that they got swept. This is nothing like after their 2010 cup where there was an exodus of players like Buff and Ladd.

And imo, the pressing problem in Chicago has more to do with the decline of Seabrook than the Kane and Toews deals. Maybe even a decline in Keith and of course the decline and loss of Hossa. They are getting older, and finding new elite D is not about how much cap space you have. That is why they for Murphy. It's moreso to find a gem somewhere than it is for cap issues. A good GM can fulfill both goals at once, and it is because that team has players like Toews and Kane that Murphy has any chance of becoming great.

I am not saying that being top heavy in contracts is the reason Chicago was swept in the playoffs.
I am suggesting that being top heavy makes it much more difficult to round out the roster. I agree that the Klefbom and Larsson contracts will help but I still see trouble ahead for Chiarelli.
A revolving door is coming and as a number of posters have pointed out Chiarelli is not a strong negotiator...that makes this job even more difficult.

 

[guymez]

Did you not expect it to get tougher with McDavid and Drai due for new contract? Whether Drai's contract was $7.5M or $8.5M, the cap crunch was coming regardless. All teams with elite talents have to deal with this at some point and with the RFA market for forwards having been inflated the last several years, this especially affects with elite level young talent.

The contracts that will cause issues are RNH, Lucic, Russell and to a lesser extent Sekera. Still LOTS of term left on those deals with three of those players being 30+ already and the other being overpaid for what he brings.

I agree in part.
A million here and a million there makes a difference. Its not irrelevant like some posters are claiming.
I see RNH as being the first causality of whats to come for this team. The Russell contract perfectly fits the reality that myself and others are pointing out. There is plenty of evidence that shows that negotiating contracts is not Chiarellis strength.
The revolving door is coming and we have a GM that doesnt do very well with contracts. Its a valid concern IMO.

The window to win starts this season.

 

[joestevens29]

I agree in part.
A million here and a million there makes a difference. Its not irrelevant like some posters are claiming.
I see RNH as being the first causality of whats to come for this team. The Russell contract perfectly fits the reality that myself and others are pointing out. There is plenty of evidence that shows that negotiating contracts is not Chiarellis strength.
The revolving door is coming and we have a GM that doesnt do very well with contracts. Its a valid concern IMO.

The window to win starts this season.

So he's just not going to acquire players via trades anymore? Seems to have done well getting Talbot, Maroon, Kassian etc...

 

[guymez]

So he's just not going to acquire players via trades anymore? Seems to have done well getting Talbot, Maroon, Kassian etc...

I dont think you are following what I am saying here. I never said a thing about Chiarelli not acquiring players via trade moving forward.

This is all about the difficulty of the task ahead for Chairelli and the team.

 

[PaPaDee]

So he's just not going to acquire players via trades anymore? Seems to have done well getting Talbot, Maroon, Kassian etc...

He definitely seems to have an eye for talent, and seeing players that can offer more than there current circumstances indicate. He also seems to have a good eye for finding/landing college free agents. He's going to need to lean on this going forward given our minimal cap space we will have for the foreseeable future.

 

[McDNicks17]

I really don't understand why people think they know more about what a player is worth than the GM negotiating with said player.

 

[PaPaDee]

I really don't understand why people think they know more about what a player is worth than the GM negotiating with said player.

I could agree with you more if we're talking about UFA's. But in an RFA situation, it's a lot easier to second guess and question.

 

[CupofOil]

I agree in part.
A million here and a million there makes a difference. Its not irrelevant like some posters are claiming.
I see RNH as being the first causality of whats to come for this team. The Russell contract perfectly fits the reality that myself and others are pointing out. There is plenty of evidence that shows that negotiating contracts is not Chiarellis strength.
The revolving door is coming and we have a GM that doesnt do very well with contracts. Its a valid concern IMO.

The window to win starts this season.

It's definitely not irrelevant but my point is that I'd rather overpay a young, fast developing player who has an elite skillset and will likely be worth his deal at some point during his contract and soon than players who have already peaked and are worth the contract now but likely won't be in 2-3 years.

My big worry is how Chia manages the cap going forward with the supporting cast, the Russell contract is not a good start. I fully expected McDavid and Draisaitl to take up a big chunk of the cap, as they should.

 

[guymez]

I really don't understand why people think they know more about what a player is worth than the GM negotiating with said player.

Commenting on a GM's strengths and weaknesses is fair game. We do it with players all the time.

 

[rboomercat90]

One thing I find interesting about this deal is that pretty much every other player besides Malkin and Toews/Kane is making 8+ million to be THE guy. Drai doesn't even need to be THE guy most nights. He just needs to be able to run a second line effectively.

So you have to ask, what is Drai's job? What do bar do you set for him? I could see a future where he puts up around 65-75 points per season as an effective second line centre, with McDavid putting up 90-105 points pretty easily, and the team succeeding. Is that good enough?

Basically, if the team continues to put up 100+ point seasons even if Drai is only putting up 75ish points, is he worth it? I would say yes.

Most of the talk on related to this contract has been about Drai being able to replicate his 77 point regular season. I really don't think that matters as much as his playoff performance does. This is a team that should be expected to finish top3 in the division for the next 5+ years, and I think anything less would be a total failure. I think they get in regardless of whether Drai puts up 70 or 85 points.

We can probably get away with the offence going primarily through McDavid in the regular season, but that is not so in the playoffs, as we have seen.

So,where this deal will look great, or not so great, is in the playoffs. If Drai can do damage on the opposition's second pairing, as we saw this year, then he will be worth every cent of the deal.

I'll be judging this deal on how well the team plays and not specifically on how many points Draisatl gets. Draisatl isn't a player that only brings offence. He has other elements to his game too. As long as the team is winning and being competitive every year I'll be happy. Conversely, if he's scoring 100 points and the team is missing the playoffs every year I'll see the teams structure as a failure. I think the teams core with McDavid, Draisatl, Klefbom, Larsson, Lucic and Sekera is good enough to be very competitive so I'm happy with the deal. I'll be even happier if we can get Talbot signed long term after next season.

 

[McDNicks17]

Commenting on a GM's strengths and weaknesses is fair game. We do it with players all the time.

There's a big difference between the two.

You get to see every second of what a player does on the ice.

We basically know nothing about what a GM is doing behind the scenes.

 

[guymez]

It's definitely not irrelevant but my point is that I'd rather overpay a young, fast developing player who has an elite skillset and will likely be worth his deal at some point during his career and soon than players who have already peaked and are worth the contract now but likely won't be in 2-3 years.

My big worry is how Chia manages the cap going forward with the supporting cast, the Russell contract is not a good start. I fully expected McDavid and Draisaitl to take up a big chunk of the cap, as they should.

The bolded is a large part of my point.
Hypothetically speaking....if McDavid signed for $11.5M would anybody really think that it was a bad contract for the player? Would anybody have argued that signing Draisaitl for $7.5M was a bad contract for the player?
Add in Russell. Lucic et al and it underscores a trend for Chiarelli. What is it about his negotiating skills that I should be confident about?
Where is the evidience form his time with the Oilers and his time in Boston that would lend me to think that he will handle the coming revolving door effectively?
Can you provide anything that counters this perspective?

 

[Cawz]

I disagree Guymez. McDavid changed the landscape of the team (and League) with his epicness. Chia had to follow suit with the contract (s).

Exactly. The Oilers just had 2 players finishing the top 8 in scoring. Both players are under 22 years old. If they didn’t produce as well as they did, we would have been signed for cheaper contracts, but who wants that? You build a team from talent down. Every team in the league would jump at the chance to have these 2 players at the salaries they are getting. Yeah, it’ll be tough to fill in the roster around them. You know what would be tougher? To fill in the roster around worse players, even if you had more money.

Plus, as time goes on, these players will gain more experience and the cap will go up. A new tv contract is coming half-way through their contracts, which usually comes with a big bump. The NBA saw around a 33% jump in the salary cap when their new tv deal came in, due to the fact that advertisers are shifting more money to live sporting events, since they get more bang for their buck due to the fact that few people PVD / DVR sports games and fast-forward the commercials. Plus, Vegas is apparently red hot in ticket sales, which adds to revenues.

There might be a few tough years, but I think anyone signing after the new tv deal comes in will be even more inflated. At that point, these 2 contracts could be looked at as absolute steals. It sucks to have to look that far into the future, but that’s the reality of long term contracts.

 

[CupofOil]

The bolded is a large part of my point.
Hypothetically speaking....if McDavid signed for $11.5M would anybody really think that it was a bad contract for the player? Would anybody have argued that signing Draisaitl for $7.5M was a bad contract for the player?
Add in Russell. Lucic et al and it underscores a trend for Chiarelli. What is it about his negotiating skills that I should be confident about?
Where is the evidience form his time with the Oilers and his time in Boston that would lend me to think that he will handle the coming revolving door effectively?
Can you provide anything that counters this perspective?

I never argued that negotiating was a strength of his and I do think he rushed this Draisaitl signing a bit being in the strong negotiating position. All I'm saying is that the McDavid and Draisaitl contracts aren't the main causes of the upcoming cap crunch because they are more than likely to be worth their contract and then some over the duration of the deal.
It's the bloated contracts to decent secondary players most of which are entering the wrong side of their prime and NMC's that is the biggest issue.

Ultimately, this is his problem and not mine so I'm just going to focus on the positive which is having two of the best talents in the league locked up for the next 8 years and a team that will always be a playoff contender because of those two guys.

 

[Cawz]

The bolded is a large part of my point.
Hypothetically speaking....if McDavid signed for $11.5M would anybody really think that it was a bad contract for the player? Would anybody have argued that signing Draisaitl for $7.5M was a bad contract for the player?

His agent would. How do you argue that he's worth less than Kuznetsov and Johansson?

 

[guymez]

I never argued that negotiating was a strength of his and I do think he rushed this Draisaitl signing a bit being in the strong negotiating position. All I'm saying is that the McDavid and Draisaitl contracts aren't the main causes of the upcoming cap crunch because they are more than likely to be worth their contract and then some over the duration of the deal.
It's the bloated contracts to decent secondary players most of which are entering the wrong side of their prime and NMC's that is the biggest issue.

Ultimately, this is his problem and not mine so I'm just going to focus on the positive which is having two of the best talents in the league locked up for the next 8 years and a team that will always be a playoff contender because of those two guys.

The McDavid and Draisaitl contracts are a part of the problem. Thats exactly my point.
Thats what I am discussing here.

You can ignore it if you like...thats cool. This is however a Draisaitl contract thread.

 

[guymez]

His agent would. How do you argue that he's worth less than Kuznetsov and Johansson?

1 season. The sample size for Draisaitl was too small.

 

[McDNicks17]

The McDavid and Draisaitl contracts are a part of the problem. Thats exactly my point.
Thats what I am discussing here.

You can ignore it if you like...thats cool. This is however a Draisaitl contract thread.

I don't think you're going to find too many people that are pessimistic enough about having two of the best young players in the league(one being the clear best) locked up for nearly a decade to agree with you.

 

[CupofOil]

The McDavid and Draisaitl contracts are a part of the problem. Thats exactly my point.
Thats what I am discussing here.

You can ignore it if you like...thats cool. This is however a Draisaitl contract thread.

I believe in McDavid and Draisaitl so yeah, I don't think their contracts will be a problem going forward. Great players get paid.

I'm not ignoring anything, I'm just choosing to enjoy what this team is building towards rather than cap issues that will occur down the line. The Oilers will lose some solid role players and they will still contend because they have elite players, a good goaltender and their young top pairing locked up at a discounted rate for the next 4 years.

 

[guymez]

I don't think you're going to find too many people that are pessimistic enough about having two of the best young players in the league(one being the clear best) locked up for nearly a decade to agree with you.

Does it matter if people agree? I am just discussing what I see as a potential issue moving forward.

As McCupofOil said...he prefers not to focus on it. That doesnt mean it isnt an issue though. It just means some posters prefer to look the other way.

 

[guymez]

I believe in McDavid and Draisaitl so yeah, I don't think their contracts will be a problem going forward. Great players get paid.

I'm not ignoring anything, I'm just choosing to enjoy what this team is building towards rather than cap issues that will occur down the line. The Oilers will lose some solid role players and they will still contend because they have elite players, a good goaltender and their young top pairing locked up at a discounted rate for the next 4 years.

I never said that I didnt believe in McDavid and Draisaitl. My concern (which you shared a few posts ago) was that it (along with Chiarellis struggles with negotiating) plays a role in how the rest of the roster looks in terms of the cap.

 

[Cawz]

1 season. The sample size for Draisaitl was too small.

And the sample size of those 2 guys is larger with worse stats. If Drai regresses to a low-60 point player, he'll still be in line with those guys larger sample sizes, who would be making more.