Prospect Info: Draft Thread | Oilers Select 4th Overall

[Oilception]

OV and Crosby draft year I was too focused on finishing high school and going to college so I wasn't following hockey as much as I should. That's why I probably didn't notice the hype. I remember Lebron James was hyped like crazy tho. lol

education before general hockey knowledge?

for shame

 

[Lacaar]

Because only 1 or 2 teams hits that D every year. 30 teams in NHL, so 20 years is about right. (Been 20 years since Poti). if you think a late round steal is a top pairing, well every NHL fails from your POV. Getting even a 3rd pairing D is a win. Davidson was playing above a 3rd pairing D, so he is an even bigger win.

Look around the NHL and look at their steals from past 10-15 years (non 1st round picks)

Calgary- Brodie and Gio. None really in 20 years before that. So got their two now
Vancouver- Edler?
Winnipeg- Enstrom (Buff wasnt their pick)
Toronto- Kaberle, Stralman?
Montreal- Markov (98), Subban, Beachmin
Chicago- Keith, Buff
Minny- Spurgeon? (unsigned depth pick), Leddy?
Rangers- Girardi
NYI- Hamonic
Carolina- Faulk
Nashville- Weber, Josi, Ellis?
Tampa- Nothing (for D)
Ducks- Vat
LA- Muzzin, Voynov
Phoenix- Nothing for D (yet)
Sharks- Vlasic, Boyle


The list is far for exhaustive and really only a quick demo, could go way more in depth and missing players. But as you can see, all the "steals" are spread out over the years and over the teams. Which leads me to believe they are pure and utter luck. No team besides Nashville, Chicago and maybe Montreal has over 3 in last 15 years (Im probably missing a team here). Oilers werent going to get one with Musil, Hesketh, Bigos picks. But theyve been drafting smart with Jones/Bear/Laleggia/Paigin/ Davidson picks finally. If we get a steal, itll be pure luck. But atleast our name is in the "hat" to get a later round steal. We were always out of contention in past years with bad picks from the start

You're making stuff up that I said.

I said "I don't consider a 6th rounder turning into a MASSIVE SUCCESS"

I then say we don't hit on any round for a top two defencemen. You've gone and left the whole first round out.

The Oilers have failed to draft a top 2 defenceman in any round..for 20+ years.

I'm of the opinion that hitting 3rd pairing dmen in the late rounds while nice. Doesn't make a big impact.

This damn Davidson ***** everyone has for the scouting staff doesn't absolve the team of 20 plus years of swing and misses in every other bleeping round concerning defencemen.

Your list is massively incomplete and if it was complete. I'd wager it would be quite evident how truly disgraceful this team is at drafting defencemen. Include the 1st round and it would go from awfult to mind bogglingly futile.

 

[Tarus]

Internet age. I remember him being really hyped (he was rivalling Crosby from day 1 almost). Every prospect gets insane hype due to twitter, internet etc. Back in 2004 getting info from Russian Superleague was impossible

At 1:15 you have Milbury (?) start talking about trading the pick for more lesser assets

The Rest of the top 10 and 1st round which they could have traded down for? Wheeler at 5, Zajac at 20, Schnieder at 26. Rest are meh or busts. OV went on to be one of best goal scorers of all time

This should apply to Laine here too. Never trade down, ever

Milbury was still the GM of the Islanders then, but I can understand why you might think that it was him considering he was responsible for a considerable number of the terrible deals regarding young, highly rated prospects from the early/mid 2000s within the NHL.

 

[Raab]

Internet age. I remember him being really hyped (he was rivalling Crosby from day 1 almost). Every prospect gets insane hype due to twitter, internet etc. Back in 2004 getting info from Russian Superleague was impossible



At 1:15 you have Milbury (?) start talking about trading the pick for more lesser assets

The Rest of the top 10 and 1st round which they could have traded down for? Wheeler at 5, Zajac at 20, Schnieder at 26. Rest are meh or busts. OV went on to be one of best goal scorers of all time

This should apply to Laine here too. Never trade down, ever

Your assuming they would have only got picks in a deal. Also how many cups have the Caps won with Alex leading the way?

Edit: To play devils advocate what would have happened if Washington and Chicago traded? Something like this for a deal to Washington 3rd overall where they take Ladd, Keith, Anderson for Ovechkin? Who wins that deal?

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Your assuming they would have only got picks in a deal. Also how many cups have the Caps won with Alex leading the way?

Edit: To play devils advocate what would have happened if Washington and Chicago traded? Something like this for a deal to Washington 3rd overall where they take Ladd, Keith, Anderson for Ovechkin? Who wins that deal?

But the odds of hitting a deal like that are one in a million. Much more likely you're going to end up with a MA Pouliot and JFJ for Parise-like trade...

Also how do those 3 do when they don't hit their stride until their mid-20's, when Ovi is already a multi time 50 goal scorer? Reinhart gets ripped apart here purely due to what he traded for, now amplify that pressure by a near infinite amount...


There's a time in the draft when one could look to trade down and collect picks, but that would be on day 2.

 

[Aceboogie]

Your assuming they would have only got picks in a deal. Also how many cups have the Caps won with Alex leading the way?

Edit: To play devils advocate what would have happened if Washington and Chicago traded? Something like this for a deal to Washington 3rd overall where they take Ladd, Keith, Anderson for Ovechkin? Who wins that deal?

I mean at that age Keith was almost equivalent to Joey Laleggia, or course he skyrocketed after but at the time he was not hyped. You cant really play revisionist history with only the best picks from later rounds and apply it today. If you look at any draft, after top 3, the rest of the 1st round has alot of busts or career depth players with your steals sprinkled in. Hard to hit on those guys, and you need to hit on 2 to even be worth it. Hitting 2 studs in 1st round after the top 3 is extremely, extremely hard. While we all talk about the 2016 drfats 1st rounds with optimism today, the reality is that in 5 years, of the top 10 2 will bust, 2 will be dissappointing NHLers, 2 will be ok and 2 will exceed and 2 will be studs

I mean look at 2010 draft. Busts: Mcilrath, Burmistrov
Dissappointing: Connolly, Nino
Ok: Gudbranson, Granlund Skinner
Exceed: Johansen studs: Hall, Seguin
or 2009- bust:Glennie, Cowen
disappointing: MPS, Schenn
ok: Kadri, Kane
Exceed: Duchene
Studs: OEL, Duchene, Hedman

To go extreme: I mean why didnt Tampa trade 1st pick used on Lecaviler in 1998 for Detroits 6th round pick and 7th round pick in 1999.

Washington has been a powerhouse with Ovy for years now. I highly doubt any package would have been worth in, quantity for Quality trades rarely work out and either does trading down in top 5.

 

[Aceboogie]

On note of Detriot picks. Man I get a chuckle every time I hear Detroit being some powerhouse drafting team for past 20 years because of Datsyuk and Zetterberg. They landed 2 massive steals in 98 and 99. But around those picks? Worse than the worst drafting Oilers (for depth picks)

95: Landed zero regular NHLers. Total NHL GP: 175 for every draftee
96: Landed zero NHLers, total NHL GP: 49
97: Landed zero NHLers, total NHL GP: 191
98: Datsyuk, other than that Jiri Fischer had 305 games
99: Zetterberg, nothing other than that
00: Kronwall (1st round pick) and Kopecky
01: zero regular NHLers
02: Killed it in this draft. Ericsson, Hudler, Fleischmann, Filpulla
03 and on- really picked it up with Franzen, Howard, Quincey, Abedklkader, Helm. But from 95 and earlier till 2003 they were pathetic

 

[Jet Walters]

The Leafs offering Penguins 1st, Leafs 1st and 2nd, and Washington 2nd might look appealing, but you have to make good on those picks. Assume those picks are 4, 27, 31, and 60. Now go back and look at who was drafted in those positions every year and you'll find the returns to be very poor. John Carlson at 27 in the Gagner draft as the best player I found going back 10 years out of picks 27, 31, an 60.

However, if the Oilers could trade those picks for proven NHL talent and draft Dubois or one of the defensemen at 4 that might be something worth looking at.

 

[Aceboogie]

The Leafs offering Penguins 1st, Leafs 1st and 2nd, and Washington 2nd might look appealing, but you have to make good on those picks. Assume those picks are 4, 27, 31, and 60. Now go back and look at who was drafted in those positions every year and you'll find the returns to be very poor. John Carlson at 27 in the Gagner draft as the best player I found going back 10 years out of picks 27, 31, an 60.

However, if the Oilers could trade those picks for proven NHL talent and draft Dubois or one of the defensemen at 4 that might be something worth looking at.

Yeah if Oilers land 1st or 2nd overall and Leafs are foaming at the mouths for that pick id give up a package with 1st for 4th overall and Rielly. That way we are actually getting NHL talent now

Say 1st overall + Yakupov for 4th + Rielly. If Leafs turn it down, so be it. Thats only trade worth the risk or worth op cost of making that deal (and we arent able to trade it for AP or Subban or OEL or Shattenkirk or whomever)

However im really not using that pick to acquire D. Id try to get one with any asset before that 1st

 

[Jet Walters]

Yeah if Oilers land 1st or 2nd overall and Leafs are foaming at the mouths for that pick id give up a package with 1st for 4th overall and Rielly. That way we are actually getting NHL talent now

Say 1st overall + Yakupov for 4th + Rielly. If Leafs turn it down, so be it. Thats only trade worth the risk or worth op cost of making that deal (and we arent able to trade it for AP or Subban or OEL or Shattenkirk or whomever)

However im really not using that pick to acquire D. Id try to get one with any asset before that 1st

There may be some very good veterans available for a pick with a lot of teams up against the cap. I'd try to line a few of those deals up and then I'd be OK with trading down from 1 to 4 for a load of picks. If you could get a solid 3rd line center and a two way top 6 winger out of those picks it would be ideal and open up trading some excess skill up front for defense.

 

[Pointteen]

The Leafs offering Penguins 1st, Leafs 1st and 2nd, and Washington 2nd might look appealing, but you have to make good on those picks. Assume those picks are 4, 27, 31, and 60. Now go back and look at who was drafted in those positions every year and you'll find the returns to be very poor. John Carlson at 27 in the Gagner draft as the best player I found going back 10 years out of picks 27, 31, an 60.

However, if the Oilers could trade those picks for proven NHL talent and draft Dubois or one of the defensemen at 4 that might be something worth looking at.

It looks good if they are traded for proven talent. Big if though.

 

[Raab]

But the odds of hitting a deal like that are one in a million. Much more likely you're going to end up with a MA Pouliot and JFJ for Parise-like trade...

Also how do those 3 do when they don't hit their stride until their mid-20's, when Ovi is already a multi time 50 goal scorer? Reinhart gets ripped apart here purely due to what he traded for, now amplify that pressure by a near infinite amount...


There's a time in the draft when one could look to trade down and collect picks, but that would be on day 2.

Well its improbable the whole deal would work out. If you can hit on 2 or 3 pieces you'd still have a good team. Even if we don't cherry pick and say Washington and Chicago traded and Washington got 3rd overall, Ruutu, Seabrook(14th overall the year before), and Anderson for Ovechkin. Which I don't think would be out of line given the contrast between the 1st and 3rd pick. I think if your doing a deal like that though you really have to have good scouts and trust them.

 

[Raab]

The Leafs offering Penguins 1st, Leafs 1st and 2nd, and Washington 2nd might look appealing, but you have to make good on those picks. Assume those picks are 4, 27, 31, and 60. Now go back and look at who was drafted in those positions every year and you'll find the returns to be very poor. John Carlson at 27 in the Gagner draft as the best player I found going back 10 years out of picks 27, 31, an 60.

However, if the Oilers could trade those picks for proven NHL talent and draft Dubois or one of the defensemen at 4 that might be something worth looking at.

I wouldn't trade down for picks only. At minimum I want one of Komerov, JVR, or Reilly coming back. Komerov, 4th overall, Pitts 1st, Tor 2nd, Carrick, helps us, or Reilly, Pitts 1st, Connor Brown also helps us. We just need to be sure of the players were getting in return.

 

[Jet Walters]

I wouldn't trade down for picks only. At minimum I want one of Komerov, JVR, or Reilly coming back. Komerov, 4th overall, Pitts 1st, Tor 2nd, Carrick, helps us, or Reilly, Pitts 1st, Connor Brown also helps us. We just need to be sure of the players were getting in return.

Say you could work a deal out with Anaheim for Vatanen in exchange for the picks the Leafs paid for #1.

Is Dubois and Vatanen more appealing than Matthews? That's a tough call for me but I would probably do it.

 

[PBandJ]

OV was WAY more hyped. Not even close. OV was talked about as the best draft eligible player in a long time. OV was closer to Crosby/McDavid level of hype than the hype Matthews is getting

This.

The hype for him was so insane, Florida tried to pull a fast one in 2003 and claim he was eligible taking leap years into account or some insane reasoning.

 

[HeavyHitter99]

David Quenneville with an absolute beauty for Canada.

 

[MPStoEberletoHall*]

David Quenneville with an absolute beauty for Canada.

Where's he projected to go in the draft?

He's small, but he's a tank.

 

[McDrai]

Where's he projected to go in the draft?

He's small, but he's a tank.

Probably 4th round or later
You don't see many 5'8" defencemen in the NHL if at all

 

[Oilers10]

On note of Detriot picks. Man I get a chuckle every time I hear Detroit being some powerhouse drafting team for past 20 years because of Datsyuk and Zetterberg. They landed 2 massive steals in 98 and 99. But around those picks? Worse than the worst drafting Oilers (for depth picks)

95: Landed zero regular NHLers. Total NHL GP: 175 for every draftee
96: Landed zero NHLers, total NHL GP: 49
97: Landed zero NHLers, total NHL GP: 191
98: Datsyuk, other than that Jiri Fischer had 305 games
99: Zetterberg, nothing other than that
00: Kronwall (1st round pick) and Kopecky
01: zero regular NHLers
02: Killed it in this draft. Ericsson, Hudler, Fleischmann, Filpulla
03 and on- really picked it up with Franzen, Howard, Quincey, Abedklkader, Helm. But from 95 and earlier till 2003 they were pathetic

This is flawed on so many levels. First of all why are you not counting Dats and Zetterberg they were picked so they should be included and where are years 2003 -2015? You are forgetting Nyquist and Tatar and Mrazek as well. They haven't drafted top 10 in all this time. They are really an incredible organization. Plus I see a whole lot of NHL talent here I don't see Oilers with anywhere near this kind of haul.

Lol there's so many NHL stars on that list even without Dats and Zetterberg I don't know how you can deny that. They are the gold standard of how to respectably run a franchise not relying on lottery picks.

 

[HeavyHitter99]

Where's he projected to go in the draft?

He's small, but he's a tank.

He's ranked all over the board. I could see him being drafted in the 3rd but more likely the 4th. I think central scouting has him ranked in the 5th.

 

[bucks_oil]

On note of Detriot picks. Man I get a chuckle every time I hear Detroit being some powerhouse drafting team for past 20 years because of Datsyuk and Zetterberg. They landed 2 massive steals in 98 and 99. But around those picks? Worse than the worst drafting Oilers (for depth picks)

95: Landed zero regular NHLers. Total NHL GP: 175 for every draftee
96: Landed zero NHLers, total NHL GP: 49
97: Landed zero NHLers, total NHL GP: 191
98: Datsyuk, other than that Jiri Fischer had 305 games
99: Zetterberg, nothing other than that
00: Kronwall (1st round pick) and Kopecky
01: zero regular NHLers
02: Killed it in this draft. Ericsson, Hudler, Fleischmann, Filpulla
03 and on- really picked it up with Franzen, Howard, Quincey, Abedklkader, Helm. But from 95 and earlier till 2003 they were pathetic

Well... you are partly right in that the narrative is dated, but it was based on some pretty stellar steals in the late eighties and early nineties. The depth added in those years payed it forward for the next 25 years as it allowed Detroit to keep players out of the NHL longer.

For example:

1989:
1st = Mike Sillinger, 548pts/1049gp,
2nd round = Bob Boughner a steady 630gp on D,
3rd round = Nick Lidstrom HOFer,
4th round = Sergei Fedorov HOFer
6th round = Dallas Drake, for years one of the top 10 checking C in the league
11th round = Vladimir Konstantinov, a fantastic 2nd pairing D

1990:
1st = Keith Primeau, who became one of the best 2C power centermen in the league
2nd = Vyacheslav Kozlov, who scored 853 points in 1182 games during the dead puck era
7th = Jason York, who put together a 757 game career on D

1991:
1st = Martin Lapointe, who developed into a solid 2 way winger good for 40 points/season
2nd = Jamie Pushor, over 500 games of stay at home D
3rd = Chris Osgood, over a decade of being a starter and a stanley cup winner
4th = Mike Knuble, a surprising 548 points in 1068 games as a hard-nosed winger

I mean... that's 12 solid NHLers drafted in 3 years, including 9 guys who were key members of stanley cup teams... HALF A ROSTER! Two Hall of Famers with 3rd+ round picks IN ADDITION to two more in Datsyuk and Zetterberg several years later. The only team to even get close to that level of elite drafting were the 1980's Oilers

 

[Seachd]

As far as I can remember, the last time a top 5 pick was traded outright and a 1st overall pick was traded period was 2002. I think the odds are low that it would happen this year, no matter who has those picks.

 

[Aceboogie]

This is flawed on so many levels. First of all why are you not counting Dats and Zetterberg they were picked so they should be included and where are years 2003 -2015? You are forgetting Nyquist and Tatar and Mrazek as well. They haven't drafted top 10 in all this time. They are really an incredible organization. Plus I see a whole lot of NHL talent here I don't see Oilers with anywhere near this kind of haul.

Lol there's so many NHL stars on that list even without Dats and Zetterberg I don't know how you can deny that. They are the gold standard of how to respectably run a franchise not relying on lottery picks.

I know they are a good drafting team. I was just pointing out they missed in great fashion in the years leading up to picks and many years after

The draft for me in those rounds is pure luck. Red Wings are a great example for this. They have never constantly picked steals. However the reason they have picked more steals than other teams is that they have picked skilled players almost exclusively in later rounds, and almost all their steals turned into skilled forwards. Then they just rounded the roster out with depth guys off waivers or in trades

When people say "follow Red Wings model" typically they mean draft and hold in AHL for 4 years. But thats not the important part, its picking skill players in later rounds. Ignore all the "future NHL bottom pairing D" or "good potential depth piece". Pick skill like Red Wings did. Their hit rate is still pretty low, and have some 1st and 2nd round busts. But they just picked skill A TON more than other teams in last 15-20 years

 

[40oz]

As far as I can remember, the last time a top 5 pick was traded outright and a 1st overall pick was traded period was 2002. I think the odds are low that it would happen this year, no matter who has those picks.

Prospects are just too valuable in the cap era

 

[Raab]

I know they are a good drafting team. I was just pointing out they missed in great fashion in the years leading up to picks and many years after

The draft for me in those rounds is pure luck. Red Wings are a great example for this. They have never constantly picked steals. However the reason they have picked more steals than other teams is that they have picked skilled players almost exclusively in later rounds, and almost all their steals turned into skilled forwards. Then they just rounded the roster out with depth guys off waivers or in trades

When people say "follow Red Wings model" typically they mean draft and hold in AHL for 4 years. But thats not the important part, its picking skill players in later rounds. Ignore all the "future NHL bottom pairing D" or "good potential depth piece". Pick skill like Red Wings did. Their hit rate is still pretty low, and have some 1st and 2nd round busts. But they just picked skill A TON more than other teams in last 15-20 years

Having the best European scout for over 25 years in Hakan Andersson helped as well.