Prospect Info: Draft Thread | Oilers Select 4th Overall

[Zaddy]

We have a completely different scouting staff and GM that had an excellent first draft last season (as of right now). Every draft pick from last season has exceeded expectations (even Mcdavid for some people) other than maybe Svoboda. If we were offered that trade we would take it and run very fast.

I mean it's hard to say (in terms of the trade offer). It's a really good offer but this draft is pretty weak outside the top15. Even with better scouting there is no guarantee those picks turn into anything. It really comes down to how big of a difference you think it's between Laine and Chychrun/Dubois/Sergachyov or whoever you're targetting at #4. For me, I think Laine has legit superstar potential and could become one of the best goalscorers in the league. It's hard to pass that up. On the other hand doing that trade would allow us to restock the cupboards in a really nice way and that's something which is needed as well, so it's a pretty tough situation, but I still feel that you have to go with the best prospect you can get in this situation, and that would be Laine.

EDIT: Just saw you posted more on the subject.

If we were offered that package we would take it without hesitation but it would never be offered because it's stupid for the Leafs. The trade could potentially be:

Laine for Dubois, Fabbro, Benson and Hart

You don't turn that down.

I think you do. Fabbro, Benson and Hart are far from sure things and all of them have question marks. I'm not convinced Fabbro will be anything more than a #4-5 guy, Benson had a very injury-riddled season and Hart is a goalie and he's not in the tier of a Gibson, Vasilevski, Samsonov etc. So it comes down to Laine vs Dubois and I think there's a fair chance that Laine turns out to be a much more impactful NHLer than Dubois.

 

[Oilception]

Yar, one year ago today.

For anyone interested in grinning ear to ear, the GDT from last year. The magic happens on page 21.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1879229&highlight=

I love that in about 2 minutes there was 100 posts

 

[Zaddy]

Good old jibberish posts, keyboard mashing

Hahaha, it's hilarious reading that. Brings a big smile to my face. What a day that was.

 

[s7ark]

If we were offered that package we would take it without hesitation but it would never be offered because it's stupid for the Leafs. The trade could potentially be:

Laine for Dubois, Fabbro, Benson and Hart

You don't turn that down.

I'd easily turn that down. The difference between a top 2 pick and a lower pick is dramatic most years. If the Oilers get a 1/2 pick, I'd be willing to trade the pick. But only for a top pairing D.

Yar, one year ago today.

For anyone interested in grinning ear to ear, the GDT from last year. The magic happens on page 21.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1879229&highlight=

Good read. Thx

 

[Lacaar]

Oscar Klefbom... Brandon Davidson

Problem with our D drafting is we picked Plante, Musil, Hesketh, Bigos, Blain, Motin. Low scoring pluggers. We picked skill in Marincin, Gernat and 1 of those 2 is in NHL with #4 upside

Bears/Jones/Paigin look like your Petry/Davidson/Marincin type skilled D and their seasons show it

Davidson? he's a 3rd pairing defenceman who had a good 20 game stretch on pace for all of 15 points.

Klefbom has played 30 games this year where he looked good. Not crowning him yet.

Sorry I need a ton more proof before I think of either of them as bonefide successful draft picks. Davidson is doing good for where he was drafted but 3rd pairing dman just aren't that special.

 

[Aceboogie]

Davidson? he's a 3rd pairing defenceman who had a good 20 game stretch on pace for all of 15 points.

Klefbom has played 30 games this year where he looked good. Not crowning him yet.

Sorry I need a ton more proof before I think of either of them as bonefide successful draft picks. Davidson is doing good for where he was drafted but 3rd pairing dman just aren't that special.

lmao. 6th round picks have a 5% chance of becoming an NHL player.

From the 6th round in 2010 only Mark Stone and perhaps Jesper Fasth are better than Davidson. Dalton Prout and Bitetto are the only other NHLers. Although Prout is a niche fighter

If you go to the 5th round only Gallagher, Mrazek, Donskoi and Klingberg are above him. A total of 13 picks have NHL games, most just a brief stretch and back in AHL

if you move to the 3rd and 4th rounds. Only Gudas and perhaps Nordstrom are above him.

Even in the 2nd round hes above around 18 players from 2nd round and 7 players from 1st round

And that only from his 1st season where he looked very good for 30 games. Give him a full season next year and hell be above more guys. Davidson was a incredible pick even if only 3rd pairing. Because 3rd-7th round picks rarely if ever turn out

If you are expecting a Keith/Weber. Well those steals come around once or twice a year and never to the same team. So realistically just gotta wait your turn. And with our picking strategy from 2007-2013 we werent going to even be in discussion to get one

 

[HeavyHitter99]

Our picks are not success from last year. They're trending.. trending is good for all of nothing.

When they play in the NHL.. and Contribute. That's success.

This gets said every year.. our picks are doing great. Then they hit the NHL and fold like a cheap tent. Especially I might add our defence picks. We haven't hit anything special on that end in over 25 years.

And last I checked Mac T and Howson still work for this team.. in the scouting department.

I understand the draft is a crapshoot. But we lose that crapshoot more than any other team unless we're dealt a wining hand. And the effective is now magnified with how important the defensive position has become in todays game. Miss after miss after miss after miss in the drafting and development department for defencemen.

The best they have to show for it is Jeff Petry and Tom Poti. Those are the two best defencemen this team has **** out of its system in 20 plus years.

Actually 99% of our picks the last 15 years have looked stupid from the second they were made so you're wrong people don't say they look great every season. Especially the last bunch of years where we have been drafting way off the board picks, nobody ever said those picks look great. Last season we made smart picks and drafted players that were expected to go a lot earlier.

Last season was the first year in a long long time that we didn't go way off the board with our picks. Not saying they are guarentees but they were smart decisions at the time and now. Something MacT and Tambo etc etc etc could never figure out how to do.

 

[HeavyHitter99]

Davidson? he's a 3rd pairing defenceman who had a good 20 game stretch on pace for all of 15 points.

Klefbom has played 30 games this year where he looked good. Not crowning him yet.

Sorry I need a ton more proof before I think of either of them as bonefide successful draft picks. Davidson is doing good for where he was drafted but 3rd pairing dman just aren't that special.

Give me a break. Davidson was a 6th rounder, the fact that he even made the NHL at all is a major success.

Klefbom was great last year and our #1 this season. Regardless he was a mid-late 1st rounder who would be a #3 on a very good team. You can't ask anymore of a non top 15 pick.

Like I've already stated, our drafting in the past was crap and we consistently went way off the board with the pick and/or didn't make the easy smart picks. We didn't do that last draft, hopefully one of our picks from 2015 other than Mcdavid turns out.

 

[HeavyHitter99]

I mean it's hard to say (in terms of the trade offer). It's a really good offer but this draft is pretty weak outside the top15. Even with better scouting there is no guarantee those picks turn into anything. It really comes down to how big of a difference you think it's between Laine and Chychrun/Dubois/Sergachyov or whoever you're targetting at #4. For me, I think Laine has legit superstar potential and could become one of the best goalscorers in the league. It's hard to pass that up. On the other hand doing that trade would allow us to restock the cupboards in a really nice way and that's something which is needed as well, so it's a pretty tough situation, but I still feel that you have to go with the best prospect you can get in this situation, and that would be Laine.

EDIT: Just saw you posted more on the subject.



I think you do. Fabbro, Benson and Hart are far from sure things and all of them have question marks. I'm not convinced Fabbro will be anything more than a #4-5 guy, Benson had a very injury-riddled season and Hart is a goalie and he's not in the tier of a Gibson, Vasilevski, Samsonov etc. So it comes down to Laine vs Dubois and I think there's a fair chance that Laine turns out to be a much more impactful NHLer than Dubois.

Those players were just examples. How much have you actually watched those 4 players to be able to write them off like that?

 

[Aceboogie]

Give me a break. Davidson was a 6th rounder, the fact that he even made the NHL at all is a major success.

Klefbom was great last year and our #1 this season. Regardless he was a mid-late 1st rounder who would be a #3 on a very good team. You can't ask anymore of a non top 15 pick.

Like I've already stated, our drafting in the past was crap and we consistently went way off the board with the pick and/or didn't make the easy smart picks. We didn't do that last draft, hopefully one of our picks from 2015 other than Mcdavid turns out.

Ive wrote alot about it in another thread. But when Oilers havent gone off the board, theyve actually hit at a rate that the better drafting NHL teams do. Not every pick has worked out, for instance Gernat, Pitlick,MPS, Lander, Bunz, Martindale, Rajala Hamilton were generally solid picks with upside but didnt work out

But Oiler hit on Marincin, Davidson, Reider (but dumbly traded), Petry, Klefbom, Eberle, Gagner (yes), Nash (traded for Marincin, but player worked out and identified by Oiler).

Problem is the Hesketh, Motin, Abney, Bigos, Ewanyk etc picks, and Musil/Moroz reaches. These guys are easy to not pick. These guys have no shot from draft day

The draft is kind of easy actually. Just avoid the huge red flags like those players and pick from 90% of talented picks. Sure only 20% will work out (like what happened for every team), but youll hit more

2013 draft was a mixed bag. Chase, Roy, Yakimov, Slepyshev were solid picks. Not everyone worked out. Platzer, Betker would be on my do not draft list, but Platzer put up 90 in OHL when given ice time. Ketker put up some good points

But then you has Muir, Campbell who I wrote off from beginning. 2014 draft had all picks I wouldnt want. None really look like guys thatll be anything. Save for maybe Lagesson.

2015 draft was killer. Every pick save for Svoboda has upside and potential to be a steal.

 

[BB88]

How is Laine's 2-way game? I remember a lot of Oiler fans drooling over Yakupov's shot when he was in junior but if you can't play a a 2-way game and don't have the proper hockey IQ then it's going to be an uphill battle

1 difference to Yak is that Laine plays against men in Liiga, it's a quality league in Europe, defensive minded and well coached, if you don't know how to play defense in Finland you won't play, you simply won't win your coaches trust if you are a complete mess defensively, especially when we are looking at prospects aged 17y.

Laine is a rookie in Liiga this season and he has been improving his all around game throughout the year, he has a damm high compete level and in the playoffs especially you can see him working without the puck, skating back, being strong on the forecheck(same as he was at the WJC) but he isn't Puljujarvi when it comes to play without the puck.
Laine also has a high end hockey IQ which should make it easier for him.

In short he's not Barkov(prospect) without the puck but he's not Ovi either.

 

[Lacaar]

lmao. 6th round picks have a 5% chance of becoming an NHL player.

From the 6th round in 2010 only Mark Stone and perhaps Jesper Fasth are better than Davidson. Dalton Prout and Bitetto are the only other NHLers. Although Prout is a niche fighter

If you go to the 5th round only Gallagher, Mrazek, Donskoi and Klingberg are above him. A total of 13 picks have NHL games, most just a brief stretch and back in AHL

if you move to the 3rd and 4th rounds. Only Gudas and perhaps Nordstrom are above him.

Even in the 2nd round hes above around 18 players from 2nd round and 7 players from 1st round

And that only from his 1st season where he looked very good for 30 games. Give him a full season next year and hell be above more guys. Davidson was a incredible pick even if only 3rd pairing. Because 3rd-7th round picks rarely if ever turn out

If you are expecting a Keith/Weber. Well those steals come around once or twice a year and never to the same team. So realistically just gotta wait your turn. And with our picking strategy from 2007-2013 we werent going to even be in discussion to get one

They got a 3rd pairing dman in the 6th round.......

They haven't hit a top 2 dman in over 20 years.

You want to call getting a 3rd pairing dman in the 6th round a success.. fine.

The reason this team blows monkey chunks is they haven't hit a Keith/Weber in 25 years. Like not even a sniff.... not even the slightest sniff. They haven't hit a Seabrook.. the next tier down.

 

[Aceboogie]

They got a 3rd pairing dman in the 6th round.......

They haven't hit a top 2 dman in over 20 years.

You want to call getting a 3rd pairing dman in the 6th round a success.. fine.

The reason this team blows monkey chunks is they haven't hit a Keith/Weber in 25 years. Like not even a sniff.... not even the slightest sniff. They haven't hit a Seabrook.. the next tier down.

Because only 1 or 2 teams hits that D every year. 30 teams in NHL, so 20 years is about right. (Been 20 years since Poti). if you think a late round steal is a top pairing, well every NHL fails from your POV. Getting even a 3rd pairing D is a win. Davidson was playing above a 3rd pairing D, so he is an even bigger win.

Look around the NHL and look at their steals from past 10-15 years (non 1st round picks)

Calgary- Brodie and Gio. None really in 20 years before that. So got their two now
Vancouver- Edler?
Winnipeg- Enstrom (Buff wasnt their pick)
Toronto- Kaberle, Stralman?
Montreal- Markov (98), Subban, Beachmin
Chicago- Keith, Buff
Minny- Spurgeon? (unsigned depth pick), Leddy?
Rangers- Girardi
NYI- Hamonic
Carolina- Faulk
Nashville- Weber, Josi, Ellis?
Tampa- Nothing (for D)
Ducks- Vat
LA- Muzzin, Voynov
Phoenix- Nothing for D (yet)
Sharks- Vlasic, Boyle


The list is far for exhaustive and really only a quick demo, could go way more in depth and missing players. But as you can see, all the "steals" are spread out over the years and over the teams. Which leads me to believe they are pure and utter luck. No team besides Nashville, Chicago and maybe Montreal has over 3 in last 15 years (Im probably missing a team here). Oilers werent going to get one with Musil, Hesketh, Bigos picks. But theyve been drafting smart with Jones/Bear/Laleggia/Paigin/ Davidson picks finally. If we get a steal, itll be pure luck. But atleast our name is in the "hat" to get a later round steal. We were always out of contention in past years with bad picks from the start

 

[Draiskull]

Marincin and Gernat looked pretty legit one year removed from draft.
Lets not get carried away with Bear\Jones\Paigin til they prove to be better than what we have had these past few years.

 

[Aceboogie]

Marincin and Gernat looked pretty legit one year removed from draft.
Lets not get carried away with Bear\Jones\Paigin til they prove to be better than what we have had these past few years.

I dont think it would be bad if they developed into Marincin, I mean thats a pretty good thing to do. Marincin is a good bottom pairing D who looked like a #4 D in his first year here and last half of season in Toronto. Not a slight to any of the 3 new guys to carve a career like that. Petry would be another great outcome for them. Top pairing is a possibly, I mean top pairing D have looked like these guys did in junior. Parayko was roughing it in AJHL 4 years ago. But thats a very slight chance

Gernat was all work ethic issues. He never put the work in, relied entirely on physical tools. I hate comparing high skilled D to him, because it takes a special type of player to have the lack of drive he had


Id say with those 3 combined: 10% chance of 1 being a top pairing D, 35% chance of 1 being Petry/Marincin level, 50% of 1 being some sort of NHL player, 5% chance of all 3 busting

 

[Canovin]

As good as OV was. Was he as hyped as Matthews and Laine in his draft? I'm only a few weeks older than him and I don't remember him being as hyped as the top 2 in 2016

Remember when OV was thought to be Kovy-lite in his draft year and who would have thought he turned out to be even better. Makes me think Laine could become something special especially he plays with McDavid

 

[Aceboogie]

As good as OV was. Was he as hyped as Matthews and Laine in his draft? I'm only a few weeks older than him and I don't remember him being as hyped as the top 2 in 2016

Internet age. I remember him being really hyped (he was rivalling Crosby from day 1 almost). Every prospect gets insane hype due to twitter, internet etc. Back in 2004 getting info from Russian Superleague was impossible



At 1:15 you have Milbury (?) start talking about trading the pick for more lesser assets

The Rest of the top 10 and 1st round which they could have traded down for? Wheeler at 5, Zajac at 20, Schnieder at 26. Rest are meh or busts. OV went on to be one of best goal scorers of all time

This should apply to Laine here too. Never trade down, ever

 

[40oz]

Marincin and Gernat looked pretty legit one year removed from draft.
Lets not get carried away with Bear\Jones\Paigin til they prove to be better than what we have had these past few years.

I think the Paigin situation is a bit different because he's 21 and playing against men.

 

[CaptainSexyPants]

Not a fan of trading down unless we're outside the top 2/3.

There's a good reason guys like Friedman and LeBrun are saying 'no way anyone trades Matthews if they win it, not even the Oilers'. You really don't want to be trading franchise-level players at all, but when they're 18, cost controlled in a cap league, and under team control for 7+ years?

Matthews/Laine isn't the only way to fix the D. IMO you keep that player and use pretty much any other asset not named McDavid. Hall, Draisaitl, Klefbom, Nurse, Nuge, 2017 1st, Eberle, Yakupov...we have a lot of pieces to work with.

 

[MoneyGuy]

Yar, one year ago today.

For anyone interested in grinning ear to ear, the GDT from last year. The magic happens on page 21.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1879229&highlight=

Anyone have the link to the thread on the main boards?

 

[Zaddy]

Those players were just examples. How much have you actually watched those 4 players to be able to write them off like that?

I'm not writing them off at all, in fact I like all three of those players, but you have to be realistic too. Is it worth giving up a potential superstar player in Laine to pick those guys? It could pay off but it could just as well backfire and 5 years later you see Laine tearing up the league and scoring 40 goals while some of the other guys bust or struggle to be more than depth players.

Hypothetically, lets say Dubois turns into a great, but not elite, all-around forward and one of Benson/Fabbro becomes a top6 F / top4 D. Is that worth more than a 40 goal scorer? I mean, you can't bank on some of these later picks becoming stars and hitting their ceiling. Obviously if Fabbro, Benson, Hart and Dubois all become impact players than that's better than to just have one really good player but I think the chances of that happening are very slim.

 

[s7ark]

As good as OV was. Was he as hyped as Matthews and Laine in his draft? I'm only a few weeks older than him and I don't remember him being as hyped as the top 2 in 2016

Remember when OV was thought to be Kovy-lite in his draft year and who would have thought he turned out to be even better. Makes me think Laine could become something special especially he plays with McDavid

OV was WAY more hyped. Not even close. OV was talked about as the best draft eligible player in a long time. OV was closer to Crosby/McDavid level of hype than the hype Matthews is getting

 

[Aerchon]

Its funny how much some people are hoping for Laine so badly.

The odds are against us drafting 1 or 2 and I think our previous luck has a few people thinking too far ahead.

Who ever we get, I hope will be nothing but a domino effect to us finally getting a top pairing right shooting defenseman somehow.

I don't think trading down would help that situation in any way shape or form.

Edit: Ovie was way more hyped than Mathews and Laine isn't even remotely in the same conversation of either really.

 

[Canovin]

OV was WAY more hyped. Not even close. OV was talked about as the best draft eligible player in a long time. OV was closer to Crosby/McDavid level of hype than the hype Matthews is getting

OV and Crosby draft year I was too focused on finishing high school and going to college so I wasn't following hockey as much as I should. That's why I probably didn't notice the hype. I remember Lebron James was hyped like crazy tho. lol

 

[dustrock]

OV was WAY more hyped. Not even close. OV was talked about as the best draft eligible player in a long time. OV was closer to Crosby/McDavid level of hype than the hype Matthews is getting

Absolutely. He was a superstar as soon as he was drafted.