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Draft Lottery (April 18) - 13th/14th Pick Speculation (2% Chance at Top Pick)

  • Thread starter Thread starter Ron*
  • Start date Start date
King'sPawn said:
Thank you! I'm glad you enjoy them :)

This is something I've wanted to do for a while, frankly. Dating back to 2007, actually, when the Kings drafted Wayne Simmonds. It made me think, "Gosh, Central Scouting doesn't have this guy ranked at all. I wonder what he plays like?" And someone told me "He's a tough kid. You'll like him." I thought... that doesn't really help me.

So I made these videos for those people who haven't been able to see the prospects or see what they're like. It's not to replace scouting... but to give a glimpse of what a player is like in an actual game.

I also didn't want to do just a highlight video, because if you've heard my commentary, highlights - while fun - create these unfair and unrealistic expectations where players are seen at their best... and people expect that best... all. the. time.

So, that's my intent and purpose with these. I'm really glad you like them. Maybe it will inspire other people to do similar works with more players so we'll have a more comprehensive look at the draft class, since the fastest I can expect to churn anything out recently is 1-2 a week.

I'll probably post them on the main board after the regular season is over. I've been nervous, since the trolls come out in full force there.
Click to expand...

I think that's the most important piece, really. You can glean a lot about a player by seeing him at his average, not just best and or worst. I.e. everything from positioning to body language.
 
Final odds:

Rank|Chance|Team
1|20.00%|Buffalo
2|13.50%|Arizona
3|11.50%|Edmonton
4|9.50%|Toronto
5|8.50%|Carolina
6|7.50%|New Jersey
7|6.50%|Philadelphia
8|6.00%|San Jose
9|5.00%|Columbus
10|3.50%|Colorado
11|3.00%|Florida
12|2.50%|Dallas
13|2.00%|Los Angeles
14|1.00%|Boston
 
Ron said:
Final odds:

Rank|Chance|Team
1|20.00%|Buffalo
2|13.50%|Arizona
3|11.50%|Edmonton
4|9.50%|Toronto
5|8.50%|Carolina
6|7.50%|New Jersey
7|6.50%|Philadelphia
8|6.00%|San Jose
9|5.00%|Columbus
10|3.50%|Colorado
11|3.00%|Florida
12|2.50%|Dallas
13|2.00%|Los Angeles
14|1.00%|Boston
Click to expand...

We got this.
 
Ron said:
Final odds:

Rank|Chance|Team
1|20.00%|Buffalo
2|13.50%|Arizona
3|11.50%|Edmonton
4|9.50%|Toronto
5|8.50%|Carolina
6|7.50%|New Jersey
7|6.50%|Philadelphia
8|6.00%|San Jose
9|5.00%|Columbus
10|3.50%|Colorado
11|3.00%|Florida
12|2.50%|Dallas
13|2.00%|Los Angeles
14|1.00%|Boston
Click to expand...
Back to the black hole.
 
kingsfan said:
It's a myth, plenty of great talent is still on the board at 10-15.
Click to expand...

Absolutely. That being said the Kings really need this pick to turn into a top six forward (hopefully a center), or a top four defenseman.
 
KINGS17 said:
Absolutely. That being said the Kings really need this pick to turn into a top six forward (hopefully a center), or a top four defenseman.
Click to expand...

Yep. To many so-so picks or flops in the first round under Futa. He and his crew have been great the rest of the way but the 1st round has been merely ok.

2007: Hickey
2008: Doughty, Teubert
2009: Schenn
2010: Forbort
2011: No one
2012: Pearson
2013: No one
2014: Kempe

Outside of Doughty, no one has established themselves as a core player in this league. Time to take a swing for a homerun, try for an elite goalscorer or centreman.
 
kingsfan said:
Yep. To many so-so picks or flops in the first round under Futa. He and his crew have been great the rest of the way but the 1st round has been merely ok.

2007: Hickey
2008: Doughty, Teubert
2009: Schenn
2010: Forbort
2011: No one
2012: Pearson
2013: No one
2014: Kempe

Outside of Doughty, no one has established themselves as a core player in this league. Time to take a swing for a homerun, try for an elite goalscorer or centreman.
Click to expand...

Give Pearson time. He is going to be gold in this league, IMO.
 
kingsfan said:
Yep. To many so-so picks or flops in the first round under Futa. He and his crew have been great the rest of the way but the 1st round has been merely ok.

2007: Hickey
2008: Doughty, Teubert
2009: Schenn
2010: Forbort
2011: No one
2012: Pearson
2013: No one
2014: Kempe

Outside of Doughty, no one has established themselves as a core player in this league. Time to take a swing for a homerun, try for an elite goalscorer or centreman.
Click to expand...

I dunno about your assessment of Futa. He has had some misses, but Doughty is Doughty, Pearson is going to be a very good top six forward in the NHL, Schenn was considered the top prospect entering the NHL when he was traded, and the jury is still out on Kempe.

That's not too shabby. The Kings likely won't be picking this high again for a while. That's why I say this pick needs to be a top six forward, or top four defenseman somewhere down the line.

Also, don't forget a guy like Muzzin was heavily scouted by Futa and his staff before the Kings went after him.
 
Ron said:
Give Pearson time. He is going to be gold in this league, IMO.
Click to expand...

I don't know about gold, but I can see a Justin Williams type with more speed, which is pretty good I agree. Point is it's a list with only one bust (Teubert) but only one elite talent (Doughty) as well. The rest thus far is good but mostly support players. We need to get a Jeff Carter/Gaborik/etc. here. We need a skilled player, not another two-way type, especially since we don't have a first next draft.
 
KINGS17 said:
I dunno about your assessment of Futa. He has had some misses, but Doughty is Doughty, Pearson is going to be a very good top six forward in the NHL, Schenn was considered the top prospect entering the NHL when he was traded, and the jury is still out on Kempe.

That's not too shabby. The Kings likely won't be picking this high again for a while. That's why I say this pick needs to be a top six forward, or top four defenseman somewhere down the line.

Also, don't forget a guy like Muzzin was heavily scouted by Futa and his staff before the Kings went after him.
Click to expand...

Maybe I didn't come across the way I intended. I certainly don't think Futa's done bad, it's just that we've been set up now to have a boatload of character guys (which I love) but where's the skill? Doughty was a great pick, but that also comes in part from the fact we got to draft high. When drafting outside the top two, were's the skill?

Even Schenn was a character guy, we all remember the comparisions to Mike Richards. Yes, he had skill, hence going sixth overall, but that character played into his drafting defeinately. Same for Teubert, Pearson, etc. We need someone in the system that has 25-30 goal upside. Zykov is not it. Neither is Kempe. When guys like Gaborik, Carter, etc. start on the downslide, which will be coming in the next 3-4 years likely, whose going to replace them?

It's why I hope we take a swing for the fences.
 
kingsfan said:
Yep. To many so-so picks or flops in the first round under Futa. He and his crew have been great the rest of the way but the 1st round has been merely ok.

2007: Hickey
2008: Doughty, Teubert
2009: Schenn
2010: Forbort
2011: No one
2012: Pearson
2013: No one
2014: Kempe

Outside of Doughty, no one has established themselves as a core player in this league. Time to take a swing for a homerun, try for an elite goalscorer or centreman.
Click to expand...

Isn't Schenn a core player in Philly? I thought he was. Forbort is ready for his shot so he could still be a core player and Pearson sure looks like he can be one maybe as early as next season and that is great considering he was passed over and taken 30th. Kempe has a great shot at developing into a core player but it could take anotehr 3 or 4 years to find out.
 
kingsfan said:
Maybe I didn't come across the way I intended. I certainly don't think Futa's done bad, it's just that we've been set up now to have a boatload of character guys (which I love) but where's the skill? Doughty was a great pick, but that also comes in part from the fact we got to draft high. When drafting outside the top two, were's the skill?

Even Schenn was a character guy, we all remember the comparisions to Mike Richards. Yes, he had skill, hence going sixth overall, but that character played into his drafting defeinately. Same for Teubert, Pearson, etc. We need someone in the system that has 25-30 goal upside. Zykov is not it. Neither is Kempe. When guys like Gaborik, Carter, etc. start on the downslide, which will be coming in the next 3-4 years likely, whose going to replace them?

It's why I hope we take a swing for the fences.
Click to expand...

I see where your coming from.
 
A 2nd line centre is a huge need. This would help us move Toffoli to RW1 and Carter to RW2. I don't know if Lombardi and Sutter see Carter as a 2C long term but eventually he needs to be moved back to the wing, in my eyes anyways. Not a young guy anymore, he might be better on the wing.

Gaborik-Kopitar-Toffoli
Pearson-XX-Carter

Obviously it would be a while until the kid got up here but you guys get where I'm going with this.
 
AKAY47 said:
A 2nd line centre is a huge need. This would help us move Toffoli to RW1 and Carter to RW2. I don't know if Lombardi and Sutter see Carter as a 2C long term but eventually he needs to be moved back to the wing, in my eyes anyways. Not a young guy anymore, he might be better on the wing.

Gaborik-Kopitar-Toffoli
Pearson-XX-Carter

Obviously it would be a while until the kid got up here but you guys get where I'm going with this.
Click to expand...

That makes sense. Does not appear that the Kings have any top 6 centers
in the system, with the possible exception of Kempe, if he develops as a center.
I'm hoping they take a center with the pick. Since you're in Ottawa, how good is Konecny? Other centers that may be there at 13 are: Rantanen, Barzal, Connor, Zacha
and Merkley.
 
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A couple of teams flip-flopped in the official NHL released standings, but otherwise, pretty much the same.
 
kingsfan said:
Maybe I didn't come across the way I intended. I certainly don't think Futa's done bad, it's just that we've been set up now to have a boatload of character guys (which I love) but where's the skill? Doughty was a great pick, but that also comes in part from the fact we got to draft high. When drafting outside the top two, were's the skill?

Even Schenn was a character guy, we all remember the comparisions to Mike Richards. Yes, he had skill, hence going sixth overall, but that character played into his drafting defeinately. Same for Teubert, Pearson, etc. We need someone in the system that has 25-30 goal upside. Zykov is not it. Neither is Kempe. When guys like Gaborik, Carter, etc. start on the downslide, which will be coming in the next 3-4 years likely, whose going to replace them?

It's why I hope we take a swing for the fences.
Click to expand...

Hickey was a swing for the fence.
 
KINGS17 said:
Hickey was a swing for the fence.
Click to expand...

Hickey was off the board, not sure he was a swing for the fence.

I think what Kingsfan is saying is if the Kings have a chance to take a riskier potential 30 goal scorer or a sure thing character center or defenseman they should take the risk, and I agree. The Kings need to add some high end talent to the cupboard.
 
KINGS17 said:
Hickey was a swing for the fence.
Click to expand...

I was meaning now, and for a forward. Hickey's in the past. And while he wasn't a homerun, he wasn't a complete flop either, though that's likely a discussion for another thread.

Herby said:
Hickey was off the board, not sure he was a swing for the fence.

I think what Kingsfan is saying is if the Kings have a chance to take a riskier potential 30 goal scorer or a sure thing character center or defenseman they should take the risk, and I agree. The Kings need to add some high end talent to the cupboard.
Click to expand...

Yep. You look at Toffoli, it's been five years since he was drafted and this season was the first he'd be called a top two line forward. Most of our top two lines are well over 30 in five years with the exception of Toffoli and possibly Pearson. Outside of guys like Kempe, Zykov, Weal and Prokhorkin, who has that kind of upside? And even those guys aren't really great offensive prospects and none that I'd be willing to wager would ever hit 25-30 goals in a season. Let's go for a homerun. We could net a Kyle Beach, we could get a Claude Giroux. We can afford to miss on this pick, but we need a Giroux-like prospect.
 
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