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Draft Lottery (April 18) - 13th/14th Pick Speculation (2% Chance at Top Pick)

  • Thread starter Thread starter Ron*
  • Start date Start date
Ron said:
Think of that for a moment.

And then think of all the people playing the California lottery at ridiculous odds...171 million to 1, as I recall.

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Muzzinga said:
Imagine if the Pens had traded Crosby for JMFJ, Vladimir Mihalik and Tyler Plante. They would probably be a dynasty tbh becuase then they wouldnt draft Fleury
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MAF flipping the playoff mode switch...

25th%20anniversary%20of%20Chernobyl%20disaster%20-%20Ruined%20reactor%20complex,%2025%20years%20ago.jpg
 
Future King Connor McDavid with four goals for Erie. Almost through with the second period...
 
kingsfan28 said:
Has there ever been a team outside the bottom ten to win the draft and pick 1st?
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Before this year, the winner of the draft lottery moved up 3 picks.....in otherwords, it was impossible to get the 1st pick. They changed that this year, and they will make another change next year.
 
kingsfan28 said:
Has there ever been a team outside the bottom ten to win the draft and pick 1st?
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Until recently the rules only allowed teams to move up four places if they won the lottery, so only the top five teams had a chance at the top pick. The Kings won the lottery from seventh and moved up to third, Chicago and New Jersey won the lottery from eighth and moved up to fourth.
 
Tadite said:
I hadn't been paying attention at all to how the new lotto works. I'm just amazed that the worst team in the league only has a 20% (or is it 25%) chance at the 1st overall. Really undercuts the whole "tanking" thing. Only a crazy person would throw away a whole season for a 20% chance at any player, even one that's a possible 'generational.'
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After this year it actually gets worse. The first 3 picks will be decided on lottery. So starting next year you could finish dead last and pick 4th overall.
 
Ron said:
Okay, I've had enough fun with this, but I'm thinking some posters are misinterpreting the point of this thread, which is simply a discussion.

Sure it's interesting to speculate on getting McDavid, but I'm more interested in what the more prospect-knowledgeable posters here think what we can get in the 13th/14th position, and how it would help us fill our present needs, which I believe are this (not necessarily in this order):

3rd-line center
1st-line right wing
3rd-pairing defensemen (right shot)

I think we will resign Sekera and I do believe Voynov is coming back to make a dynamic second pair. The glaring problem with McNabb and Greene was made more than obvious on the road trip. McNabb is a 7th defensemen. Period. Greene needs to go, along with Stoll and Williams.

So, in my eyes, those are our needs. Who might be available at the 13th/14th positions?

(Title changed to reflect a better discussion.)
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I might be overreacting, but the draft shouldn't be based on "needs" since there might be a couple years that pass before the player would be able to make the NHL. If I'm reading too much in what you said, I apologize.

Regarding the draft, here are my thoughts on some likely available players. I'm only going to write on the ones I've done shift by shift videos on, since those are the ones I've paid closest attention to. If you're interested in seeing my videos, I've posted them in the draft thread, but my channel is here:

#13 pick
Centers:
Mathew Barzal - He's an average size player who has very good speed and two way ability. In a lot of ways, he reminds me of Kopitar, where he protects the puck well and he has a tendency to pass too much.

Travis Konecny - Slightly smaller than average, but he has a lot of great tools and plays in all three zones well. He's a better shooter than Barzal. He's already a captain, so leadership is there.

Jansen Harkins - Like the above, solid in all three zones, with an effortless stride like Jeff Carter

Pavel Zacha - Big, plays with an edge, and loves to shoot. He's pretty much an offensive catalyst on Sarnia, where he carries the puck a LOT through the neutral zone. Not as defensively disciplined as the others.

Filip Chlapik - Another center who plays a full 200 foot game, while also scoring enough to put him 3rd in rookie scoring. His team as a whole was 3rd worst in scoring in the league, so some of those numbers could have been due to lack of support.


Wingers:
Mikko Rantanen - Great player on a terrible team. Very big, strong on the boards, loves to shoot.

Evgeni Svechnikov - Exceptional east-west skater with very good vision. 2nd in rookie scoring in the Q this year

Timo Meier - Hard to argue with an 18 year-old who is 11th in scoring in the Q. However, he's not very strong on his feet, while playing a heavy game. In this way, his play is reminiscent of Dustin Brown. I also think he's benefiting a lot from playing with dynamic player Nikolai Ehlers on Halifax. Not that he's a bad prospect, but I think people may be misled a bit by his numbers.

Defense:
Ivan Provorov - One of my favorite prospects in the draft, and he likely won't fall to the Kings (although it's a distant possibility). He has all the tools to play in any situation. He led all rookies in the WHL in scoring as a defenseman, and he was the 4th highest scoring defenseman in the WHL (again, as a rookie).

Zachary Werenski - I think he's a bit of a gamble. I think he's more of an offensive defenseman, but he wasn't even a catalytic offensive defenseman. I just don't think he has the tools to control the pace of a high end defenseman, so I think he is too much of a risk at this pick... though I'm guessing he'll be taken in the top 20 anyway.

#43 pick
Centers:
Nicolas Roy - He's listed as a center on CSS, but in my SBS video, he was a winger. Either way, this kid plays Kings hockey. He's big and strong on the boards.

Defensemen:
Brandon Carlo - He's a big guy who plays with an edge. Contributes offensively, but will probably develop more into a stay-at-home type.

Mitchell Vande Sompel - Smaller defenseman with a lot of skills. He plays in all situations, and even plays forward on the penalty kill.

Noah Juulsen - I liken him a lot to Mike Richards, if he was a defenseman. Plays with a ton of heart and is used in all situations. He's an 18 year-old playing the most minutes on a team that allowed the 2nd fewest goals in the WHL. He was also top 10 among defensemen in scoring.
 
TwoForRoughing said:
Future King Connor McDavid with four goals for Erie. Almost through with the second period...
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And he finished with five. Going to be the best player in the league for a decade.

Holden Caulfield said:
After this year it actually gets worse. The first 3 picks will be decided on lottery. So starting next year you could finish dead last and pick 4th overall.
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Good. Frankly I'd do the entire league in a lottery.
 
King'sPawn said:
I might be overreacting, but the draft shouldn't be based on "needs" since there might be a couple years that pass before the player would be able to make the NHL. If I'm reading too much in what you said, I apologize.

Regarding the draft, here are my thoughts on some likely available players. I'm only going to write on the ones I've done shift by shift videos on, since those are the ones I've paid closest attention to. If you're interested in seeing my videos, I've posted them in the draft thread, but my channel is here:

#13 pick
Centers:
Mathew Barzal - He's an average size player who has very good speed and two way ability. In a lot of ways, he reminds me of Kopitar, where he protects the puck well and he has a tendency to pass too much.

Travis Konecny - Slightly smaller than average, but he has a lot of great tools and plays in all three zones well. He's a better shooter than Barzal. He's already a captain, so leadership is there.

Jansen Harkins - Like the above, solid in all three zones, with an effortless stride like Jeff Carter

Pavel Zacha - Big, plays with an edge, and loves to shoot. He's pretty much an offensive catalyst on Sarnia, where he carries the puck a LOT through the neutral zone. Not as defensively disciplined as the others.

Filip Chlapik - Another center who plays a full 200 foot game, while also scoring enough to put him 3rd in rookie scoring. His team as a whole was 3rd worst in scoring in the league, so some of those numbers could have been due to lack of support.


Wingers:
Mikko Rantanen - Great player on a terrible team. Very big, strong on the boards, loves to shoot.

Evgeni Svechnikov - Exceptional east-west skater with very good vision. 2nd in rookie scoring in the Q this year

Timo Meier - Hard to argue with an 18 year-old who is 11th in scoring in the Q. However, he's not very strong on his feet, while playing a heavy game. In this way, his play is reminiscent of Dustin Brown. I also think he's benefiting a lot from playing with dynamic player Nikolai Ehlers on Halifax. Not that he's a bad prospect, but I think people may be misled a bit by his numbers.

Defense:
Ivan Provorov - One of my favorite prospects in the draft, and he likely won't fall to the Kings (although it's a distant possibility). He has all the tools to play in any situation. He led all rookies in the WHL in scoring as a defenseman, and he was the 4th highest scoring defenseman in the WHL (again, as a rookie).

Zachary Werenski - I think he's a bit of a gamble. I think he's more of an offensive defenseman, but he wasn't even a catalytic offensive defenseman. I just don't think he has the tools to control the pace of a high end defenseman, so I think he is too much of a risk at this pick... though I'm guessing he'll be taken in the top 20 anyway.

#43 pick
Centers:
Nicolas Roy - He's listed as a center on CSS, but in my SBS video, he was a winger. Either way, this kid plays Kings hockey. He's big and strong on the boards.

Defensemen:
Brandon Carlo - He's a big guy who plays with an edge. Contributes offensively, but will probably develop more into a stay-at-home type.

Mitchell Vande Sompel - Smaller defenseman with a lot of skills. He plays in all situations, and even plays forward on the penalty kill.

Noah Juulsen - I liken him a lot to Mike Richards, if he was a defenseman. Plays with a ton of heart and is used in all situations. He's an 18 year-old playing the most minutes on a team that allowed the 2nd fewest goals in the WHL. He was also top 10 among defensemen in scoring.
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I don't know if Barzal, Zacha, Provorov or Werenski will be available at 13 but if any of them are you guys should snap them up.
 
kingsfan said:
Good. Frankly I'd do the entire league in a lottery.
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If it were up to me, I genuinely think picks 1-14 should be done with the lottery system, and keep the same weight.

I don't know how next year's going to be done, but let's say for example, Buffalo gets the #1 pick with their 20% chance... then all of the numbers which were associated with Buffalo get evenly distributed between the other 13 teams. Then, let's say, Dallas gets #2. All of Dallas' number combinations then get re-distributed to the other 12 teams.
 
Just want to stress I loved the videos too, KP. helped me get caught up in a year I didn't think we'd be looking at the first round at all :laugh:
 
Brad Doty said:
Just want to stress I loved the videos too, KP. helped me get caught up in a year I didn't think we'd be looking at the first round at all :laugh:
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Thank you! I'm glad you enjoy them :)

This is something I've wanted to do for a while, frankly. Dating back to 2007, actually, when the Kings drafted Wayne Simmonds. It made me think, "Gosh, Central Scouting doesn't have this guy ranked at all. I wonder what he plays like?" And someone told me "He's a tough kid. You'll like him." I thought... that doesn't really help me.

So I made these videos for those people who haven't been able to see the prospects or see what they're like. It's not to replace scouting... but to give a glimpse of what a player is like in an actual game.

I also didn't want to do just a highlight video, because if you've heard my commentary, highlights - while fun - create these unfair and unrealistic expectations where players are seen at their best... and people expect that best... all. the. time.

So, that's my intent and purpose with these. I'm really glad you like them. Maybe it will inspire other people to do similar works with more players so we'll have a more comprehensive look at the draft class, since the fastest I can expect to churn anything out recently is 1-2 a week.

I'll probably post them on the main board after the regular season is over. I've been nervous, since the trolls come out in full force there.
 
Best to stay in here. Some knob will watch the first five seconds and then talk ****. No respect for the amount of work and time these require make.
 
Updated odds (before the Boston/Pittsburgh games today):

Odds:

Rank|Chance|Team
1|20.00%|Buffalo
2|13.50%|Arizona
3|11.50%|Edmonton
4|9.50%|Toronto
5|8.50%|Carolina
6|7.50%|New Jersey
7|6.50%|Philadelphia
8|6.00%|Columbus
9|5.00%|Colorado
10|3.50%|San Jose
11|3.00%|Florida
12|2.50%|Dallas
13|2.00%|Boston
14|1.00%|Los Angeles
 
Boston eliminated by Penguins win. If they lose in regulation, they fall to the 13th slot and we select 14th.
 
Updated odds:

Rank|Chance|Team
1|20.00%|Buffalo
2|13.50%|Arizona
3|11.50%|Edmonton
4|9.50%|Toronto
5|8.50%|Carolina
6|7.50%|New Jersey
7|6.50%|Philadelphia
8|6.00%|Colorado
9|5.00%|Columbus
10|3.50%|San Jose
11|3.00%|Dallas
12|2.50%|Florida
13|2.00%|Los Angeles
14|1.00%|Boston
 
King'sPawn said:
I might be overreacting, but the draft shouldn't be based on "needs" since there might be a couple years that pass before the player would be able to make the NHL. If I'm reading too much in what you said, I apologize.

Regarding the draft, here are my thoughts on some likely available players. I'm only going to write on the ones I've done shift by shift videos on, since those are the ones I've paid closest attention to. If you're interested in seeing my videos, I've posted them in the draft thread, but my channel is here:

#13 pick
Centers:

Jansen Harkins - Like the above, solid in all three zones, with an effortless stride like Jeff Carter

Pavel Zacha - Big, plays with an edge, and loves to shoot. He's pretty much an offensive catalyst on Sarnia, where he carries the puck a LOT through the neutral zone. Not as defensively disciplined as the others.

Defense:
Ivan Provorov - One of my favorite prospects in the draft, and he likely won't fall to the Kings (although it's a distant possibility). He has all the tools to play in any situation. He led all rookies in the WHL in scoring as a defenseman, and he was the 4th highest scoring defenseman in the WHL (again, as a rookie).

#43 pick

Defensemen:
Brandon Carlo - He's a big guy who plays with an edge. Contributes offensively, but will probably develop more into a stay-at-home type.
Click to expand...

From what I have seen and read, these are my favorites with the bolded players being the ones I would like to see the Kings take.

Of course, the Kings scouting department is among the best in the NHL, and Dean will have Plans A-Z at the draft. I have faith in those guys to do their jobs.
 
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