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Draft and UDFA Thread: Part IV

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Amazing Kreiderman said:
McKenzie also had Kravtsov as a late 1st rounder. I don't really believe what shows up in these rankings outside the top-5
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McKenzie had him right outside of the top 10 (11) on his final rankings.

Things will change between those rankings and where the final ones are, but thats where actual NHL scouts had him (most likely including our own.)
 
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I read on some thread here (this one?) that McKenzie usually talks to mostly North American scouts so their views on foreign players are often mostly, if not all, based on the tournaments. He may very well get a broader view later in the process, but it does make a lot of sense. I'm sure he spends a lot more time hearing from local scouts than say a Russian scouting living out there and traveling to KHL games.
 
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Amazing Kreiderman said:
That's my whole point. I don't really care that Dorofeyev is ranked in the 3rd round with months to go still. So much changes
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I alluded to that.

But for those wondering why he doesn't have a 1st round grade, actual NHL scouts don't (well didn't, I have no idea where he is now.)

A 34 spot jump is pretty significant. Not saying that it can't happen (there are a few every year, Chytil rose a ton late) but its far from a sure thing.
 
Trxjw said:
I was agreeing with you. Didn't mean for that to come off the way it did.
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Ah, I misread it then. Apologies.

ZuccsFluffierFluffer said:
I alluded to that.

But for those wondering why he doesn't have a 1st round grade, actual NHL scouts don't (well didn't, I have no idea where he is now.)

A 34 spot jump is pretty significant. Not saying that it can't happen (there are a few every year, Chytil rose a ton late) but its far from a sure thing.
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A lot can happen. There's a chance Dorofeyev is picked for the Olympic team (They play Belarus in 2 weeks). And other players can drop. These rankings are what they are: Rankings based on some scouts and what they feel. I am not saying Dorofeyev will be a top-10 pick, but on draft day anything can happen and Chytil is a great example. Rangers have 2 picks and possibly 4, in the first round. Teams with multiple picks tend to reach with the later picks on Friday.
 
I have seen some clips, but haven't seen much else of Dorofeyev. What's his upside? Who is his playing style similar to? From what I've read/seen I wouldn't have an issue taking him with our 2nd or god willing 3rd first round pick.
 
Barnaby said:
I have seen some clips, but haven't seen much else of Dorofeyev. What's his upside? Who is his playing style similar to? From what I've read/seen I wouldn't have an issue taking him with our 2nd or god willing 3rd first round pick.
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Dorofeyev has a lot in common with Kravtsov. It is the best comparison I can think of. Filip Forsberg is another comparison.

What sets Dorofeyev apart from other Russian prospects, to me at least, is his maturity. The style of hockey he plays works really well at pro level. Podkolzin is a kid who a lot of people love, but he is a bit too opportunistic to me.

The Dorofeyev/Podkolzin situation reminds me a lot of the Kravtsov/Denisenko situation last season. Denisenko was listed much higher all season than Kravtsov
 
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Amazing Kreiderman said:
Dorofeyev has a lot in common with Kravtsov. It is the best comparison I can think of. Filip Forsberg is another comparison.

What sets Dorofeyev apart from other Russian prospects, to me at least, is his maturity. The style of hockey he plays works really well at pro level. Podkolzin is a kid who a lot of people love, but he is a bit too opportunistic to me.

The Dorofeyev/Podkolzin situation reminds me a lot of the Kravtsov/Denisenko situation last season. Denisenko was listed much higher all season than Kravtsov
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From the little bit I've seen I thought that he looked very composed on the ice. He seems like a guy who makes the smart and mature play but does have creativity. If Filip Forsberg is a close comp then I'd be thrilled bc I really like his game.

Podkolzin... I hate to judge a young guy on stats, but as a guy whose been sold at such a high talent level he seems a bit underwhelming in that regard. I would be happy to have him in the system, but I wouldn't be crazy about taking him as high as he's been projected.

You have my blessing. Call your friend Jeff G and tell him that he has the green light to grab Dorofeyev with our second first!
 
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Amazing Kreiderman said:
McKenzie also had Kravtsov as a late 1st rounder. I don't really believe what shows up in these rankings outside the top-5
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Yeah, the thing is, something happens with these rankings along the way. And also between the final polling and the draft. So many Canadian kids dropped last season, and quite much too.

I have my own theory. McK talks with core individuals within a bunch of organizations, but of course only one individual within each organization. A scouting organization is built like a pyramid, of course, but the people at the top also puts in hours on the floor. They travel all over, but those hours are of course mostly focused in NA since there are where they are stationed. Since these guys almost always have a hockey background, many of them are from and live in Canada.

I don’t for a second believe it’s purposeful bias, but my theory is that the impact of the European scouts grow the closer to the draft you get, where you have more organizational meetings. Heck, that sounds only natural right? In addition, the U18 service as a monumental calibration tool. It’s easy to see what one player has and what he lacks. But the hard part is compare the kid in Siberia with the kid in Ontario with the kid in the US and so forth. That calibration comes late in the year.

And, furthermore, the impact of these error sources becomes bigger if the area getting more coverage — Canada in my theory — is weaker than normal. You probably start the year assuming business as normal, and then calibrate from that.

Like there have been quite many instances the last years where I’ve felt that I’ve comfortably been able to look at McKs polling and point at a few names and call ‘there is no way this is carrying over into the draft, that ranking is going to be off’. Turcotte is one this season. Was he 11th? Hehe what do I know, but if he lasts to 11 I am going to be very very surprised. Kotkaniemi, Kravtsov and K’Andre Miller were three guys last season. I made my 31 ranking, it’s all there.
 
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Barnaby said:
I read on some thread here (this one?) that McKenzie usually talks to mostly North American scouts so their views on foreign players are often mostly, if not all, based on the tournaments. He may very well get a broader view later in the process, but it does make a lot of sense. I'm sure he spends a lot more time hearing from local scouts than say a Russian scouting living out there and traveling to KHL games.
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Barnaby, I missed your post when I made one. Just skip my last post and read this instead, what I mean but in much fewer words! ;)
 
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Dorofeyev seems to be like this year's version of Dominik Bokk. Just slowly but steadily rising as the season has gone along. I'm kind of thinking he's somewhere between 15 and 25 on draft day--so if the Rangers want him--they'll have to move up to get him. I just don't see taking him in the top 10.

Agree with Edge on Hughes, Kakko, Byram--they would be my top 3 in that order too though I think it's arguable taking Kakko over Hughes. I'm kind of trying to work out tiers.

Hughes
Kakko
------------

Byram
------------

Cozens
Zegras
Turcotte
Dach
Podkolzin
------------

Boldy
Krebs
maybe Newhook, Soderstrom, Broberg
etc. is where I'm at.

Caufield kind of f***s with my head--where to put him?--and this is about where Dorofeyev enters the picture.
 
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effen said:
Who would we compare Hughes to? I've heard Kane but that seems to be a stature thing given Kane is a winger.

Rich man's Mat Barzal?
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I really like Hughes. Look, his engine is world class. He is an amazing skater. Deep center of gravity. Tremendous edge work. Elusive. Explosive. Electric. Like you basically only get a skater like that with a 1st overall pick.

I also think his offensive game overall is a bit underrated. He moves the puck really well. One step ahead in his thinking.

I think Jack Hughes is more Pat Kane caliber than Nico Hirscher caliber if you get what I mean.

Comparable? Modern Mike Modano. Think he can become a real franchise guy. If Gorts can move up, there shouldn’t be any sacred cows.
 
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