Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19: Part VIII (No Kakko/Hughes Talk)

[broadwayblue]

Heinola at 20 and Dorofeyev at 28

Scott Wheeler of the Athletic has Dorofeyev at 15 in his final rankings.

15. Pavel Dorofeyev — RW/LW, Metallurg Magnitogorsk, 6-foot-0

Dorofeyev, one of the older players in this draft (October 26, 2000), is a stunningly patient player who excels with linemates who can play off him. Though he lacks strength (even 10 pounds would do wonders), Dorofeyev also rarely gets pushed around because that patience allows him to release a seam pass or a cut to the slot for a shot before he can get hit. That was particularly true at the MHL level in both of the last seasons (Dorofeyev’s play two seasons would have also been impressive in his draft year, which has me less concerned about his age), whereas he tended to play a little too much on the perimeter in the KHL. His puck skills (in tight, out wide, on his forehand and on his backhand) are all high end, which allows him to turn in traffic and escape with possession on the heel or toe of his blade. Like Brink, he’s going to take some time and the payoff has a chance of being an exciting, line-driving winger who can control a power play.

 

[offdacrossbar]

if Podkolzin falls out of the top 15 0r so, there will be many teams climbing over top of each other to grab him.

the skills are there. the package is high end. the guy plays a very NA style of hockey.

the production just isnt there

 

[Lays]

Yes, he's all over the place!

Honka above Heinola is funny

 

[Joey Bones]

Wheeler (The Athletic)posted his new top 100 for 2019. Some interesting rankings for sure...

If Podkolzin falls into the late Teens Gordie has to pounce on that.


1) Hughes C
2) Kakko RW
3) Turcotte C
4) Cozens C
5) Byram LHD
6) Krebs C/LW
7) Boldy RW/LW
8) Dach C
9) York LHD <--Hmmm!
10) Caufield RW
11) Newhook C
12) Zegras C <--Jeezus!
13) Kayilev LW
14) Brink RW
15) Dorofeyev RW/LW
16) Suzuki C
17) Podkolzin RW <-- Jiminy Kreegans!!!! That is a crazy fall.
18) Hoglander LW
19) Broberg LHD
20) Honka RHD
21) Heinola LHD
22) Puistola LW
23) Kokkonen LHD
24) Lavoie LW/C
25) Pelletier LW
26) Cajkovic RW
27) Legare RW
28) Soderstrom RHD
29) Harley LHD
30) Robertson LW
31) Poulin LW
32) Alexandrov C
33) Mastrosimone C
34) Tomasino C/RW
35) Seider RHD <--Most have him 1st round.
36) Leason RW <--Want this player with NYR 2nd.
37) Afanasyev- LW
38) Thrun- LHD
39) Thompson RHD
40) Grewe C/RW <--Power forwards tend to develop late. Ones that can skate have added value. Worth the risk IMO.
41) M Robertson LHD <-- Was top 15 for much of the season on alot of rankings. At 6'4" he's not going to fall to 41.
42) Fagemo LW/RW
43) Kolyachonok LHD
44) Rees C
45) Knight G
46) McMichael C/RW
47) Spence RHD
48) Firstov LW
49) Foote LW
50) Pinto RW

I think the biggest issue I have is that Tobias Bjornfot was completely omitted from that top 50. He is a solid defender in all zones. I think whoever grabs him is going to have a steal. Also, Knight, IMO, will undoubtedly go in the 1st round. No way he falls past Florida. He's got the best capability of being a starter for years and with Luongo getting to closer to retirement it's bound to happen. Wildcard for Pitt and Montreal!!

Interesting that he has Matt Robertson so low. Think he's a steady defender for a late 1st round pick. Same with Seider.

Interesting that he has has Krebs so high. I don't think he'll go in the top 15, let alone top 5. I like Puistola, but also think that's a reach for him at No. 22. Maybe at the tail end of the 1st, but he's more of a 2nd round piece, IMO.

 

[Fitzy]

if Podkolzin falls out of the top 15 0r so, there will be many teams climbing over top of each other to grab him.

the skills are there. the package is high end. the guy plays a very NA style of hockey.

the production just isnt there

I remember this line about Artyukhin too. Sooner or later you have to show you can get results.

 

[Joey Bones]

I would love Newhook at 18-21 but if it's Suzuki + Seider for Newhook, then no. I don't think that is the wisest asset management. I'm really crossing my fingers Newhook falls to our WPG pick. It could happen if there is a glut of teams desperately trying to draft themselves the best d-man. If the top 11 are Hughes, Kakko, Turcotte, Cozens, Dach, Krebs, Zegras, Caufield, Boldy, Podkolzin, and Byram (no particular order) and the a bunch of teams go heavy on drafting d-man, only 6-9 of Soderstrom, Harley, Broberg, York, Robertson, Seider, Heinola, Bjornfot, and Thomson would need to get drafted and Newhook would land in our laps. And there are also players like Kaliyev, Lavioe, Suzuki, McMichael, and Spencer Knight teams could just like better than Newhook. No one really knows but it's possible Newhook falls to us. <please please please>

What's not wise? Newhook has the biggest boom/bust of the potential 1st rounders....

Suzuki is a safe bet at being a top 9 playmaker and Seider could be a mean, top 4 defensive defender in exchange. I think it's a very useful and smart asset management if NYR were to get those two with WIN's pick and DAL's pick. It might seem incredibly intriguing to trade up for a potentially falling Newhook, but that's a big gamble with how his development proceeds. I mean, with the way the prospect pool has turned around for NYR, they could afford the gamble, but would it be the smartest if he busts? I don't think it's so clear....

 

[Edge]

I remember this line about Artyukhin too. Sooner or later you have to show you can get results.

It's funny, I find myself remembering Olesz back in 2004. He was another kid who, based on pure talent, was arguably one of the top talents in that 2004 draft. But the sum never quite matched the parts on offense.

When I see Podkolzin, there's a lot of similar feelings. Now, I will say he's even more talented than Olesz. But one shouldn't have to try and rationalize the lack of production from Podkolzin, and yet that's exactly what is happening.

 

[Joey Bones]

COHEN: Whose draft status may have changed with U18’s?

Cohen thinks Amirov is a 2019 draft prospect.

Koffer did have a good U18's and had an excellent season from the Czech leagues. Think he would need some more exposure though. Maybe a move to the CHL?

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

if Podkolzin falls out of the top 15 0r so, there will be many teams climbing over top of each other to grab him.

the skills are there. the package is high end. the guy plays a very NA style of hockey.

the production just isnt there

That's the biggest issue. When a player cannot even put up points in the MHL, he should not be a 1st round pick

 

[n8]

never going to happen lol, just saw something on the athletic that had dorofeyev as the 12th or so best prospect in the draft

I'm seeing him all over the rankings so who knows.

 

[n8]

What's not wise? Newhook has the biggest boom/bust of the potential 1st rounders....

Suzuki is a safe bet at being a top 9 playmaker and Seider could be a mean, top 4 defensive defender in exchange. I think it's a very useful and smart asset management if NYR were to get those two with WIN's pick and DAL's pick. It might seem incredibly intriguing to trade up for a potentially falling Newhook, but that's a big gamble with how his development proceeds. I mean, with the way the prospect pool has turned around for NYR, they could afford the gamble, but would it be the smartest if he busts? I don't think it's so clear....

ha, we are agreeing. I said it would not be wise to trade the two picks up just to get Newhook as Suzuki + Seider > Newhook alone.

 

[Joey Bones]

ha, we are agreeing. I said it would not be wise to trade the two picks up just to get Newhook as Suzuki + Seider > Newhook alone.

Ah, my fault cuh!!

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I think the biggest issue I have is that Tobias Bjornfot was completely omitted from that top 50. He is a solid defender in all zones. I think whoever grabs him is going to have a steal. Also, Knight, IMO, will undoubtedly go in the 1st round. No way he falls past Florida. He's got the best capability of being a starter for years and with Luongo getting to closer to retirement it's bound to happen. Wildcard for Pitt and Montreal!!

Interesting that he has Matt Robertson so low. Think he's a steady defender for a late 1st round pick. Same with Seider.

Interesting that he has has Krebs so high. I don't think he'll go in the top 15, let alone top 5. I like Puistola, but also think that's a reach for him at No. 22. Maybe at the tail end of the 1st, but he's more of a 2nd round piece, IMO.

I don't see any way he passed by Vancouver.

 

[Joey Bones]

I don't see any way he passed by Vancouver.

I mean I could see him in Vancouver, too, but I don't think he'll be a good pro. Decent reach at No. 10, IMO.

 

[Ola]

That's the biggest issue. When a player cannot even put up points in the MHL, he should not be a 1st round pick

Have you seen him play in the MHL? How was his usage etc? Its a really small sample size. He was loaned to that team, SKA is loaded etc.

BTW, are there any games with Dorofeyev at YT or anyone else where they can be streamed?

 

[I Eat Crow]

I prefer Heinola over Seider but both would be great pickups with the WPG pick

I'm on the Heinola train myself for the WPG pick. He's risen so much that I'm not sure he's even around at 20, though.

 

[Ola]

I think that you need to watch all kids and judge them individually. I was really high on Podkolzin after watching him in the Hlinka and 4-nations, then he dropped some on me to at the U18. But I don't really see how he could become an ineffective player.

And its not really true that he "never" produces, this is his career stats:

He is a young kid, moved from Moscow to St. Petersburg this season. I've not see his 12 MHL games in which he only has 8 pts in. I've also not seen his VHL games, but that league can be extremely low scoring. He played for no fewer than 6 teams last season.

The kid got really frustrated, way to fast and way to much for his own good, at the WJCs. Wanted things way to much and got down on himself, seemed like the C was a bad idea for him too. If he does well at the combine and interviews well, or at least not the opposite, I think its a mistake to not look really really closely at him outside the top 12.

 

[n8]

I'm on the Heinola train myself for the WPG pick. He's risen so much that I'm not sure he's even around at 20, though.

it really depends who drops. BPA always. Like I take Newhook all day if he's available at that pick. But for God knows why, say Zegras falls. BPA always.

 

[Leetch3]

so we've had many posts saying if so and so is available at this pick we should look to trade up...but lets try to take that a little further...

lets say that you are looking to move up from the jets pick @ #20 and also that we have dallas' 1st rounder

which players would be worth only giving up a 2nd with the #20 (meaning jumping up a few spots)?

which players would you package the 2 1st together which means jumping up further?

which players are good enough that you'd look at including kreider in the mix?

and i'm considering it tiers...so if you'd be willing to give up kreider to get a pick high enough to land a player, it goes without saying that you'd also give up a 2nd if that guy continued to fall...

 

[Lion Hound]

so we've had many posts saying if so and so is available at this pick we should look to trade up...but lets try to take that a little further...

lets say that you are looking to move up from the jets pick @ #20 and also that we have dallas' 1st rounder

which players would be worth only giving up a 2nd with the #20 (meaning jumping up a few spots)?

which players would you package the 2 1st together which means jumping up further?

which players are good enough that you'd look at including kreider in the mix?

and i'm considering it tiers...so if you'd be willing to give up kreider to get a pick high enough to land a player, it goes without saying that you'd also give up a 2nd if that guy continued to fall...

If Podkolzin was there at day #15 or #16. I would trade the two 1st round picks all day long, and then throw a party.

If one of Zegras, Turcotte or Caufield we’re there I would absolutely trade the 2 1st rd picks for them, and then throw a block party and would even invite my mother in law.

I do think all of the aforementioned will go top 10 though.

Unsure if I would do it for Newhook. Early on I though he was a dipsy-doodling toe drag queen, but he opens some eyes at U-18’s. If I had the choose to stay on #18-20 and had the Dallas 1st rounder I guess it all depends on who was there? Seider and one of Bjornfot or Beecher? Hmmm...Close. I would go with those two over Newhook but it’s real close.

 

[Barnaby]

Have we often seen situations were a team ‘trades down’ — after having made a pick already? With the driving force behind it being that a kid they liked dropped further than they expected. I have some recollection of it, but can’t remember the details.

19 or even 18 don’t seem impossible with Winnipeg’s pick. I think there are some teams with a bit higher pick who might be considering Zach Knight, but they can’t be sure that he will be there at 18. I think some of those teams could see some value in trading a pick in say the 8-12 range for Zach Knight and Dallas 1st if we get it. But it might not be that attractive if someone else snags Knight just before their pick so making that trade before their selection might be a bit risky. So maybe they go ahead and drafts whomever they like with their own pick, but then a trade can be made if Knight is still on the table at 18 and we like who they picked.

I could be wrong, but can't remember scenarios where a team picked a player then traded him during or immediately after the draft. I've seen it in basketball or football which are obviously different animals.

 

[Barnaby]

I’m all about Seider with our 18-20 first. Exactly the type of home run I’m looking for.

He scares me. I feel like these big tough defenseman playing in smaller leagues miss about as often as first round goalies

 

[Leetch3]

If Podkolzin was there at day #15 or #16. I would trade the two 1st round picks all day long, and then throw a party.

If one of Zegras, Turcotte or Caufield we’re there I would absolutely trade the 2 1st rd picks for them, and then throw a block party and would even invite my mother in law.

I do think all of the aforementioned will go top 10 though.

Unsure if I would do it for Newhook. Early on I though he was a dipsy-doodling toe drag queen, but he opens some eyes at U-18’s. If I had the choose to stay on #18-20 and had the Dallas 1st rounder I guess it all depends on who was there? Seider and one of Bjornfot or Beecher? Hmmm...Close. I would go with those two over Newhook but it’s real close.

lol @ inviting your mother in law

 

[n8]

does anyone have a link* to Seider highlights?

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

does anyone have a link* to Seider highlights?

Get a sub at ProspectShifts.com