Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19: Part VII (No Kakko/Hughes Talk)

[McRanger]

Some drafts are defenseman heavy, especially at the top. 2008 and 2012 are two of the more extreme examples.

2019 just isn’t one of those years.

 

[Edge]

That's true every year. Forwards are flashier and have better stats. They also develop faster. But great teams have great defensemen: look at the Cup winners - Potvin, Coffey, Leetch+Zubov, Stevens+Niedermayer, Lidstrom, Pronger+Niedermayer, Chara, Doughty, Duncan Keith, Letang. You can sometimes get away with just a good, but not great defense in the back, but normally you need guys who are All Stars most of their prime.

Big time defensemen matter. Not just: "he's one of the 62 best defensemen, so he is a first pair guy."

This is true, which is why I don't have a problem going with some names if they're the best on the board --- be it at 14, 20, 28, etc.

Am I inclined to trade for any of them? Not desperately, but I'm not opposed to a Miller type scenario --- Soderstrom is on the board at 16 and the Rangers move up from 20 to get him.

Would I do a lot of shuffling and dealing to get in to the top 10 for one? Eh, probably not.

 

[Edge]

Newhook has really impressed me thus far in this tourney. Just as good as turcotte or zegras imo.

I've long maintained that if you put Newhook in the same situations as Turcotte or Zegras, I think it's damn close.

Newhook is playing like a kid with a MAJOR chip on his shoulder right now --- be it the BCHL playoffs, or this tournament. Make no bones about it, he's trying to send a message that he's as good as any center in this draft not named Hughes.

 

[Ola]

Newhook has really impressed me thus far in this tourney. Just as good as turcotte or zegras imo.

Tracey has impressed me caufield of course. Harley as well. York is a great player.

But the guy that really is impressing me is jamieson rees. This kid is a heck of a player.

I've not seen much of Canada yet, tried watching a crappy feed of the Swiss game but gave up, dying to see him and a bunch of other kids on that team.

 

[nyr2k2]

I've wanted Newhook since I first saw him while checking out Riley Hughes. He was totally f***ing dominant. I know it's against lesser competition in the BCHL but the skill was undeniable. Find a way to get him.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Newhook has really impressed me thus far in this tourney. Just as good as turcotte or zegras imo.

Tracey has impressed me caufield of course. Harley as well. York is a great player.

But the guy that really is impressing me is jamieson rees. This kid is a heck of a player.

I love Rees. Jaden Schwartz written all
Over him.

 

[Ola]

So if Dallas and Vegas win their series we are guaranteed to jump up to 20?

There is reason to hope for 20. I don't at all think 19 is out of the question, I think CBJ has one of the deepest rosters in the POs with a lot of game breakers too. 18 is probably unlikely, takes Carolina being the last team standing of NYI, Washington and Carolina. But its not impossible.

Everyone know that the division winners and conference final teams move past teams ahead of them in the standings even if they have fewer points. The bold teams have fewer points than Winnipeg, and will hence jump past them -- if -- the get to the conference finals (the underlined teams are the division winners, but there is no need to pay attention):

Nashville/Dallas
vs
STL

Colorado
vs
SJ/Vegas

CBJ
vs
Bos/Tor

Was/Car
vs
NYI

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

Hoping to fall to 20, 19 would be incredible. 18 would be a sign from God

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Some drafts are defenseman heavy, especially at the top. 2008 and 2012 are two of the more extreme examples.

2019 just isn’t one of those years.

The thought going into last draft was that it would be another 2008 in terms of defensive talent, and they took like 5-6 defensemen

 

[Beacon]

This is true, which is why I don't have a problem going with some names if they're the best on the board --- be it at 14, 20, 28, etc.

Am I inclined to trade for any of them? Not desperately, but I'm not opposed to a Miller type scenario --- Soderstrom is on the board at 16 and the Rangers move up from 20 to get him.

Would I do a lot of shuffling and dealing to get in to the top 10 for one? Eh, probably not.

I would pay the price to move up for Soderstrom, not Newhook. Maybe even both Sod and Moritz (Kreider+ for Sod, Jets pick for Moritz), so we are just as strong on paper on D as up front. No need to load up at forward and leave the blue line exposed. Then see how things play out with guys like Chytil, ADA, even Vinni and Pionk (among many others) next season.

Next year we're likely to be in a similar spot as this year prior to the lottery, give or take a couple spots. We could even win the lottery again (look at the Devils), and if not, whoever we draft in the 4-8 range in a draft stronger than this year's is very likely to be superior to whoever we can get by trading up to the 8-14 range now.

Depending on how things play out with our current prospects and who's available to us 2020, we draft a D or F prospect. You don't want to be overloaded at F and exposed on D, so you're stuck reaching for a D in 2020.

 

[Lion Hound]

Hoping that the club can snag Leason with one of their 2nds. I like watching this kid play. Love the idea of having a 6'5 center with some moxy in the system even if he is a double overager. I love the gamble on a player like him. He seems too have fallen somewhat out of favor as a first rounder by some of the "experts". If he is there with a 2nd i hope Gordie pounces on him!

 

[SA16]

I would pay the price to move up for Soderstrom, not Newhook. Maybe even both Sod and Moritz (Kreider+ for Sod, Jets pick for Moritz), so we are just as strong on paper on D as up front. No need to load up at forward and leave the blue line exposed. Then see how things play out with guys like Chytil, ADA, even Vinni and Pionk next season.

Next year we're likely to be in a similar spot as this year prior to the lottery, give or take a couple spots. We could even win the lottery again (look at the Devils), and if not, whoever we draft in the 4-8 range in a draft stronger than this year's is very likely to be superior to whoever we can get by trading up to the 8-14 range now.

Depending on how things play out with our current prospects and who's available to us 2020, we draft a D or F prospect. You don't want to be overloaded at F and exposed on D, so you're stuck reaching for a D in 2020.

It's easier to find a develop defenseman later than it is for forwards because it is much easier to teach defensive play and correct a players flaws than it is to teach offensive creativity and skill.

 

[Edge]

Hoping to fall to 20, 19 would be incredible. 18 would be a sign from God

Assuming we don't find a path into the top 10, I would love to land Newhook. Thoughts on his draft position are all over the map right now. He could just outside the top 10, or he could slip into the 20s. I personally don't see him falling out of the first, though that's been mentioned once or twice.

But I would incredibly happy if he was there with the Winnipeg pick, and would be willing to move up from that slot and snag him.

 

[Beacon]

It's easier to find a develop defenseman later than it is for forwards because it is much easier to teach defensive play and correct a players flaws than it is to teach offensive creativity and skill.

Theres also a reason why last year the next 5 picks, excluding Lindbom, after Kravtsov were defensemen. Gorton recognizes the old expression that you build the team from inside out. The acquisition of Kakko, Strome and Lemieux, as well as the emergence of Zibanejad made the situation up front less pressing, but the lack of RDs stepping up made that position even more lacking which is why Gorton is reportedly looking into trading for Trouba.

 

[Beacon]

One more thing: nothing says we dont draft in the top 2 again next year, when the top 2 guys projected are centers. We could get lucky in the lottery again or just suck. The Rangers were the worst or second worst team in the NHL after dealing away MZA and Hayes.

Let's say Kakko gets 40 points, Chytil 30-35, Kravtsov 25-30. All of these are very realistic numbers. Is a team markedly better this way than towards the end of 2018-19? Plus, maybe Zibanejad or ADA are not as good as they seemed last year or maybe (probably) Kreider gets traded. A bottom 2 finish is very realistic.

I wouldn't necessarily rush to draft whatever center is on the board around #14. It's worth seeing what we already have and what we will get next year.

 

[Edge]

I think we also have to take into account that while the team might love to add higher-end RHD, that also has its limits as well.

There could be an interest in a guy like Soderstrom. Does that interest override interest in forward they like significantly more? Probably not.

There could be an interest in a guy like Trouba. Does that interest include moving multiple prime young assets at this time? Not sure.

But I don't think the Rangers are going to take a RHD they have rated as an 80 over a forward they might have rated as an 85 or 90. The higher we start talking in the draft, the more likely it is the Rangers are looking at forwards they might have rated higher. So I don't know if it's necessarily a forward vs. defenseman debate, so much as its a value debate. Right now, all things considered, you could probably argue that the top of this draft, and most of the first round, is probably filled with forwards who are seen as generally having higher values on the whole.

In 2018, I think you could make the argument there was a cluster of defensemen, or a broader group in that first round. This year, there doesn't seem to be a similar cluster that is viewed in the same light.

 

[Kovalev27]

Boldy is of course the other guy. Just top 6 pro NHL forward written all over him. Smart smart player.

If we end up with the 19th pick. Which is very possible. And newhook is still sitting there at 12 or 13. You absolutely have to move up and get him.

I think teams would be crazy to let him fall that far if they have turcotte or zegras high on their boards.

You know who hasn’t impressed me at all is Dylan Cozens. He’s awkward fast straight ahead but not real agile and gets caught standing around a lot. I don’t love his tourney at all right now.

 

[Edge]

One more thing: nothing says we dont draft in the top 2 again next year, when the top 2 guys projected are centers. We could get lucky in the lottery again or just suck. The Rangers were the worst or second worst team in the NHL after dealing away MZA and Hayes.

Let's say Kakko gets 40 points, Chytil 30-35, Kravtsov 25-30. All of these are very realistic numbers. Is a team markedly better this way than towards the end of 2018-19? Plus, maybe Zibanejad or ADA are not as good as they seemed last year or maybe (probably) Kreider gets traded. A bottom 2 finish is very realistic.

I wouldn't necessarily rush to draft whatever center is on the board around #14. It's worth seeing what we already have and what we will get next year.

Keeping in mind, the rush for a center or even a forward, isn't necessarily a "board thing."

It draws from reports that the Rangers liked the cluster of forwards in the top 10, a group they've spent a significant amount of time scouting. It also comes from the belief they were looking at scoring forwards prior to the lottery, and the subsequent reports of their interest in getting back into the top 10.

So most of the assumption is that if they were looking at forwards before, and are keen to get back into the top 10, there's pretty good odds they might be looking at forwards.

I think if the reports went the other way, and the Rangers seemed torn between one of Broberg, Soderstrom or York, that's probably where the discussion on here would trend.

 

[Kovalev27]

By the way soderstrom is a poor man’s nils Lundkvist. Hardly a guy to go nuts to get.

I’m going all forwards with my first 3 picks. Unless I can get the big German. Otherwise I’m going forwards.

 

[Zil]

Theres also a reason why last year the next 5 picks, excluding Lindbom, after Kravtsov were defensemen. Gorton recognizes the old expression that you build the team from inside out. The acquisition of Kakko, Strome and Lemieux, as well as the emergence of Zibanejad made the situation up front less pressing, but the lack of RDs stepping up made that position even more lacking which is why Gorton is reportedly looking into trading for Trouba.

You lost me when you cited Strome as a reason to feel confident about the forwards. The guy shot 22.5% for us this season. That's an unsustainable number even for an elite sniper, which Strome definitely isn't. Also, I like Lemieux, but he's in a different talent zip code from the guys we're talking about drafting.

 

[Lays]

By the way soderstrom is a poor man’s nils Lundkvist. Hardly a guy to go nuts to get.

I’m going all forwards with my first 3 picks. Unless I can get the big German. Otherwise I’m going forwards.

Soderstrom>>>Lundkvist pre draft and even now I’d take Soderstrom without hesitation. I’m a big fan of Lundkvist but Soderstrom is a better skater and has better offensive upside

 

[True Blue]

Soderstrom>>>I’m a big fan of Lundkvist but Soderstrom is a better skater and has better offensive upside

Having a better offensive upside does not mean being a better defenseman.

With all that, neither of them looks to be a potential top pairing guy to me.

 

[Kovalev27]

There is nothing about soderstrom that tells me he’s better than Lundkvist. Certainly not his two way play. Just my opinion of course.

Matt Boldy is the kid that if he went to nhl camp he wouldn’t surprise me at all if he made the team. I actually don’t see what college hockey is going to do for him. He’s already playing a pro game.

Newhook
Seider
Boldy
Rees

Are the 4 guys I think may be options with that Winnipeg pick if we choose to make a move up a couple spots.

Here’s imo the top 10 picks 3 thru 10 could go anywhere in that range though really.

1Hughes
2Kakko
3Podkolzin
4Cozens
5Byram
6Caufield
7Turcotte
8Dach
9Zegras
10Broberg

That would leave some interesting players in reachable range

 

[Beacon]

You lost me when you cited Strome as a reason to feel confident about the forwards. The guy shot 22.5% for us this season. That's an unsustainable number even for an elite sniper, which Strome definitely isn't.

1) I was generally talking about top-9 forwards.

2) He averaged .48 ppg throughout his career excluding the 18 terrible games for Edmonton this year, but hey, who hasn't been awful for that team. He had .52 ppg for the Rangers. Not out of the ballpark crazy to think he can be close to a .5 ppg player going forward. He can be a middle-6 guy or at least a quality third liner.

 

[I Eat Crow]

By the way soderstrom is a poor man’s nils Lundkvist. Hardly a guy to go nuts to get.

I’m going all forwards with my first 3 picks. Unless I can get the big German. Otherwise I’m going forwards.

I agree with this. I'd be a lot more gung ho about potentially trading for Soderstrom if Lundkvist wasn't already in the system. Very similar players, IMO.