Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19: Part VII (No Kakko/Hughes Talk)

[notwolfy]

Alex Debrincat says high. Only Cole will be better.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I find it crazy that back in 2002, the 4th OA pick (Joni Pitkanen) was traded by Tampa Bay for Ruslan Fedotenko and two 2nd round picks. Imagine if we could trade Jimmy Vesey and two 2nds for the 4th OA pick because that is a decent comparison.

Pre-salary cap era, different era when it comes to scouting. It's not really a fair comparison

 

[Thirty One]

I find it crazy that back in 2002, the 4th OA pick (Joni Pitkanen) was traded by Tampa Bay for Ruslan Fedotenko and two 2nd round picks. Imagine if we could trade Jimmy Vesey and two 2nds for the 4th OA pick because that is a decent comparison.

It was viewed as just as crazy at the time. Everyone knew Tampa was going to trade the pick for some immediate help, but the price was alarmingly low. I think there were some rumors about Nedved at the time.

 

[n8]

Kreider and a 2nd isn’t getting you a top ten pick.

If all it takes is Kreider and DAL late first I’d be totally fine with that.

If Georgiev manages a shutout in every one of the EHC games Russia plays (essentially ups his value) AND Kreider signs an extension, history has shown that we can get the 7th overall + a top defensive prospect for that package although frankly, a signed Kreider > signed Stepan.

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

I wish they had the player selected next to the trades, but ill do it for us. He's got the teams messed up in the second post.

I'm all for moving up into the top 10-15 if you are damn sure you are getting a top notch player who slipped a bit - but its always a risk to move several assets for one.

2007 #9 = Logan Couture
2016 #11 = Logan Brown
2005 #12 = Marc Staal
2008 #12 = Tyler Myers
2009 #12 = Calvin de Haan
2012 #14 = Zemgus Girgensons
2008 #15 = Erik Karlsson
2010 #15 = Derek Forbort
2006 #16 = Ty Wishart
2007 #16 = Colton Gillies

Its a risk for sure, especially if Kreider is part of the deal. Thats why i wouldnt trade Kreider and another 1st unless you were getting a top 10 Couture type player. The Staal deal was actually one of the better ones.

But thats why I say if you are gonna go for it, go for it and be aggressive at the top of the draft. Once it falls past 12-14 i think you are better off taking your chances with 2 more shots later in the first (If you have them both)

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

How does Lafreniere compare to 2018's top two guys?

I hesitate to use their names, for the title has forbade me.

I think he’s handidly better than both. He’s got as good a claim as anyone else to be the second best prospect, behind McDavid, since Crosby

 

[True Blue]

Is smaller players more injured than bigger players? I think that is another misconception.

Smaller players that get banged would be more prone to injury that larger players that gets banged. But you need to take into consideration weight as well. If a smaller player is built like a tank, that is one thing. But if said player weights all of 170 pounds and gets banged into the boards by someone who weighs 215, well that tends to take a toll. This is sin't a race. Players eventually are not skating at full speed.

 

[Rangers in 7]

I think he’s handidly better than both. He’s got as good a claim as anyone else to be the second best prospect, behind McDavid, since Crosby

from everything ive read you are correct, hes definitely behind mcdavid but would be considered significantly higher then hughes

 

[eco's bones]

I'm not a fan of Dach, at all. His skating really worries me.

If we're moving into the top 10 I want Cozens followed by Zegras.

In a forward heavy top ten Cozens would be my third forward right after Hughes and Kakko. If we had stayed at 6 I would be hoping but not expecting for him to fall to us. I see him as the third or fourth guy taken so I'm thinking if the Rangers want to move up to say 4--they are going to have to target Colorado and be willing to give up quite a lot. Zegras could go anywhere between 5 and 10 but I'd guess around 8 or 9. To me this is where Newhook could come in because he might go a little later--10 to 12.

Then again I'm not that concerned about Dach but if Cozens is what we aim at--expect to be disappointed because I think he's probably out of reach.

 

[Ola]

Smaller players that get banged would be more prone to injury that larger players that gets banged. But you need to take into consideration weight as well. If a smaller player is built like a tank, that is one thing. But if said player weights all of 170 pounds and gets banged into the boards by someone who weighs 215, well that tends to take a toll. This is sin't a race. Players eventually are not skating at full speed.

I don’t know, is this really the case? I think as a rule bigger guys are pretty injury prone. Either it’s muscular issues or they get caught more. I am fairly certain that if you look at numbers the bigger guys misses much more time than smaller players.

But maybe it’s not strange since so many bigger guys also play a physical style. But look at a guy like Nash, is it unusual that those types are injured a lot? No. Not more than say someone like Giroux for example.

 

[Bill Sergio]

And using this as a reference point, getting into the top 10 usually requires you to be within 4 slots of that pick, and costs three picks.

So, if you move Kreider for 14 heading into the draft.

You're most likely option, at least based on precedent, would be to approach Vancouver (maybe stretch it to Anaheim because they would have the ability to load up on picks in this draft).

And, based on precedent, your cost to get to 9 or 10 is likely going to be one of these combos:

• 14, 37 and a fourth
• 14, 58 and a third
• or 14 and 28

It would appear that 14 and 18 would be on the high-end. But it can't be ruled out either.

So no matter how you slice it, getting to around 14 is critical.

There's the Kreider approach. There's also the possibility of taking 18 and 58 to get to 14.

From there you would likely need the following combos to get 9 or 10:

• 14 and 28
• 14, 50, and a third

http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_NHL_Draftchart.pdf
Is a chart for trading NHL draft picks. The chart is a few years old, missing the 31st team but will give a good idea of what it would take to move.

 

[Edge]

http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_NHL_Draftchart.pdf
Is a chart for trading NHL draft picks. The chart is a few years old, missing the 31st team but will give a good idea of what it would take to move.

I don't know if I've ever fully bought into those charts, but just for the heck of it, let's explore:

14+18 = 3
14 + 21 = 4
14 + 28 = 5
14 + 37 = 7
14 + 50 = 8
14 + 58 = 8

18+28 = 7
19+28 = 8
20+28 = 8
21+28 = 9
21+37 = 11
21+50 = 12
21+58 = 12

21+37 = 11
21+ 50 = 12
21+58 = 12

37+50 = 17
37+58 = 18

50+58 = 20

All those values seem insanely high and not in line with what we've seen actually transpire.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

According to that chart we can trade up to 1st overall by throwing in a 7th rounder.

 

[Thirty One]

According to that chart we can trade up to 1st overall by throwing in a 7th rounder.

As long as it isn't 2020.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

As long as it isn't 2020.

We can trade down to 3rd and get Chicago's

 

[RangerBlues]

They should take best D available at 20. And there will be some good choices at 20.

 

[bobbop]

Kreider is a tough call. He is certainly part of the identity of the team, a very popular player and a player who by all appearances is a team leader. He is also inconsistent and he is due a large contract that will start at age 29.

The pros of keeping him are evident. The cons include a) his age doesn’t match up with the emerging core, b) he will never have higher trade value and c) he will bring back a big return, most likely in draft capital. Draft capital is very much in vogue around here these days.

My position all along is that I am listening. I think his value (especially with salary retention) is much higher that a #13 or #14 (albeit with a slight add)

I am not giving the player away. I want draft capital too.

 

[bobbop]

I don't see Kreider getting 14 on his own.

I'll happily be wrong tho.

I don’t see #14 getting Kreider on it’s own.

 

[EEDAWGZ]

I find it crazy that back in 2002, the 4th OA pick (Joni Pitkanen) was traded by Tampa Bay for Ruslan Fedotenko and two 2nd round picks. Imagine if we could trade Jimmy Vesey and two 2nds for the 4th OA pick because that is a decent comparison.

Fedotenko was an animal come playoff time , hardly comparable to Jimmy Vesey

 

[Fugazy]

Continue here: Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19: Part VIII (No Kakko/Hughes Talk)