Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19: Part VII (No Kakko/Hughes Talk)

[Ola]

Heinola is definitely a guy on my radar at the Jets pick.

He and Poulin (shout out @Lays) are guys I’m starting to really like at the Jets spot.

I love Seider/Caufield as well but I’m expecting to be top-20, maybe top-15 picks.

Another small LD?..

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

I know some posters really like Zegras, but I feel like Dach is the best fit for what Gorton is doing. He’s building a heavy team...definitely skilled, but very strong possession-wise. It’s why I think Kakko fits better than Hughes.

They also loved Keller and Pettersson. All things equal they would probably lean towards Dach, but they might be that team that loves Zegras

 

[bl02]

You’re likely right about Cozens, but Dach has been fluctuating in the 6-10 range for a couple of months now.

Man if Dach became something and the Oilers traded that pick they would make the Sens look like the most competent organization in history.

 

[Ghost of jas]

They also loved Keller and Pettersson. All things equal they would probably lean towards Dach, but they might be that team that loves Zegras

I’m not denying that . I just prefer Dach.

 

[Ola]

I know some posters really like Zegras, but I feel like Dach is the best fit for what Gorton is doing. He’s building a heavy team...definitely skilled, but very strong possession-wise. It’s why I think Kakko fits better than Hughes.

Dach? We are probably too heavy if anything, look at Tampa, not a forward over 6’1. Can we keep up? Think we need to find speed up front and size on the blueline. Also more RHS up front.

It’s a bit typical of Gorts/Sather to not manage to steer the ship. For such a long time we didn’t have a RHS PPQB. We had two RHS up front, Step and Fast. And Step sucked in that shooting role on the PP. We had zero grit for a while

You need size on the blueline. You need speed up front. You need left shooting Ds on the left side and right shooting Ds on the right side. You need a few RHS up front.

I am so sick of the mañana attitude of Gorton/Slats reaulting in them always putting flawed products on the ice. It will be the same when this rebuild is over. I would easily bet a good sum of money on that everyone unanimously will be willing to underwrite a statement that we have a logjam at LD, that we lacks speed up front, that we could use more RHS — in a few years time. Why would it work itself out?

 

[Trxjw]

Kreider doesn't really make sense for a team like Edmonton, even if he makes sense as a winger for McDavid on paper. They're going to rebuild things a bit there and they probably want a young player they can bring into the core.

I'd wonder how available Kapanen would be in Toronto. He'd be a good piece to add in Edmonton. Could the Rangers threaten an offer-sheet at a 2nd round pick compensation, strike a deal for a 2019 2nd instead, and then flip Kapanen and the Jets pick to the Oilers for #8? Is a 22 year old righty-shot winger coming off a 20 goal season enough to move up 12 spots? Tough to say.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Dach? We are probably too heavy if anything, look at Tampa, not a forward over 6’1. Can we keep up? Think we need to find speed up front and size on the blueline. Also more RHS up front.

It’s a bit typical of Gorts/Sather to not manage to steer the ship. For such a long time we didn’t have a RHS PPQB. We had two RHS up front, Step and Fast. And Step sucked in that shooting role on the PP. We had zero grit for a while

You need size on the blueline. You need speed up front. You need left shooting Ds on the left side and right shooting Ds on the right side. You need a few RHS up front.

I am so sick of the mañana attitude of Gorton/Slats reaulting in them always putting flawed products on the ice. It will be the same when this rebuild is over. I would easily bet a good sum of money on that everyone unanimously will be willing to underwrite a statement that we have a logjam at LD, that we lacks speed up front, that we could use more RHS — in a few years time. Why would it work itself out?

I’m sorry, what? There’s been one draft since they started this rebuild, as it stands now they’ll have 10 picks in each of the next two drafts (weighted toward the earlier rounds). Give it some time before you start saying we’re too this without enough of that.

And as good as Tampa has been in the regular season, their stars shrunk against Washington and it’s looking like they’ll be down 2-0 to a Columbus team who limped into the playoffs.

 

[Trxjw]

I know some posters really like Zegras, but I feel like Dach is the best fit for what Gorton is doing. He’s building a heavy team...definitely skilled, but very strong possession-wise. It’s why I think Kakko fits better than Hughes.

Dach and Kakko has the potential to be a dominant top line. Add a guy like Chytil to the wing and good luck to teams trying to defend 3 guys who are that big and that skilled. I even like the way that group lines up on the power-play.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Dach and Kakko has the potential to be a dominant top line. Add a guy like Chytil to the wing and good luck to teams trying to defend 3 guys who are that big and that skilled. I even like the way that group lines up on the power-play.

Kravstov.

 

[Trxjw]

Kravstov.

I just have a sneaking feeling that Kravstov ends up with Zibanejad. Nothing to base that on other than I feel like it'll work.

 

[Ola]

I’m sorry, what? There’s been one draft since they started this rebuild, as it stands now they’ll have 10 picks in each of the next two drafts (weighted toward the earlier rounds). Give it some time before you start saying we’re too this without enough of that.

And as good as Tampa has been in the regular season, their stars shrunk against Washington and it’s looking like they’ll be down 2-0 to a Columbus team who limped into the playoffs.

True, but it’s sooooo how Gorts/Slats function.

If a kid didn’t have a season ‘deserving’ a long term contract — sign him to a short term deal and then stand there with a disaster on your hands 2 years later. Ice a flawed roster. Always have big holes.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I just have a sneaking feeling that Kravstov ends up with Zibanejad. Nothing to base that on other than I feel like it'll work.

It would, but my thought is that his possession game fits in with the others and hes pretty good at carrying the puck up ice (should get better with added leg strength, hes going to get faster), which is something the other 2 lack.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

True, but it’s sooooo how Gorts/Slats function.

If a kid didn’t have a season ‘deserving’ a long term contract — sign him to a short term deal and then stand there with a disaster on your hands 2 years later. Ice a flawed roster. Always have big holes.

Every team has holes, that’s how it works in a cap league. Also, those Gorton and Sather teams are ground zero for this new speed based NHL. So while they couldn’t exactly complete the circle, they made a team that could overcome its bigger holes and consistently beat teams more talented then they were

 

[Trxjw]

It would, but my thought is that his possession game fits in with the others and hes pretty good at carrying the puck up ice (should get better with added leg strength, hes going to get faster), which is something the other 2 lack.

Yeah that's why I put Chytil on the other wing. He's quite good at rushing the puck through the neutral zone. Kakko and Dach get in behind him and out-work the defense to create chances.

 

[Lays]

Kreider doesn't really make sense for a team like Edmonton, even if he makes sense as a winger for McDavid on paper. They're going to rebuild things a bit there and they probably want a young player they can bring into the core.

I'd wonder how available Kapanen would be in Toronto. He'd be a good piece to add in Edmonton. Could the Rangers threaten an offer-sheet at a 2nd round pick compensation, strike a deal for a 2019 2nd instead, and then flip Kapanen and the Jets pick to the Oilers for #8? Is a 22 year old righty-shot winger coming off a 20 goal season enough to move up 12 spots? Tough to say.

Edmonton is desperate. They can’t afford to rebuild with McDavid and Draisaitl on the team. He’ll ask for a trade for sure or he’ll leave through FA once his current contract is over. Oilers need to fix things quick. Vets make more sense than younger players too for them. I’d really hate to be GM of that team, so much pressure

 

[Ghost of jas]

So which LW In next year’s top 7 fits next to Zibanejad and Kravtsov then?

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

So which LW In next year’s top 7 fits next to Zibanejad and Kravtsov then?

Lafreniere

 

[Ola]

At LD for example, this is what you can expect to get from a draft, of even a draft+UDFAs, all kids born one year:

1.5 No 1 Ds
1.5 No 2 Ds
1.5 No 3 Ds
1.5 No 4 Ds

That is assuming an average career of 10 years for top 4 Ds. There are 60 top 4 LDs in the league. Of those, statistically, only less than a half will be picked in the first round.

It don’t add up when you have 8-9 guys in the 1st round and another strong handful in the 2nd round who all are almost equally good, and fit a bill of being very good prospects. Then we know that there will be guys from the lower rounds making it or UDFAs.

The only possible scenario is that in 5-10 years, the guys deemed to be special now, won’t be as special because there are so many of them out there. It’s like when you have a bubble in a real estate market. The economics state that prices can’t go up with 20-30 % per year forever while salaries rise 2-5%. It’s hard to not understand what they mean, but people don’t act on that advice and you get the crash.

Maybe the undersized LD that is undersized and not much of a threat from the blueline and in, but that can skate and make the first pass, isn’t super special? There isn’t many organizations out there who do t have a big 3-4 on the blueline on the system right now. There are 180 Ds in the NHL, which 120 are retiring to make room for these kids next summer?

 

[Trxjw]

Edmonton is desperate. They can’t afford to rebuild with McDavid and Draisaitl on the team. He’ll ask for a trade for sure or he’ll leave through FA once his current contract is over. Oilers need to fix things quick. Vets make more sense than younger players too for them. I’d really hate to be GM of that team, so much pressure

I'm not sure they're as desperate as the fans think they are. They have a good group of players locked up under contract. What they need is some cap room to add a few pieces around them. I don't think they're going to embark on a multi-year rebuild, but I think they're going to start moving pieces around and try to acquire some good young players to fill out the roster. They might be interested in adding an extra 1st this year so they can bolster the flow of ELC's coming into the fold over the next few years.

I hope we take advantage of them doing something stupid, but I don't think I see that happening. A hockey trade though? Definitely.

 

[Stasis]

Dach and Kakko has the potential to be a dominant top line. Add a guy like Chytil to the wing and good luck to teams trying to defend 3 guys who are that big and that skilled. I even like the way that group lines up on the power-play.

I had a vision of Kreider - Kakko - Kravtsov together (unfortunate potential nickname aside...) since we really don't have anyone to fill in behind Mika atm and if Kreider's still a Ranger we have a bunch of wingers.

That's a line that could be really impressive, tons of fun to watch for us, and a nightmare for other teams to defend.

There are a lot of ways this can go but even if we move Kreider and don't sign Panarin, our top 6 is going to be pretty great. Maybe not immediately next season like many seem to expect, but soon. For it to be great next season we need Buchnevich to continue as he was, Chytil to not show only flashes of the skill he has (yes I know he's very young), Kakko/Hughes to step in immediately and not require easing in, and Kravtsov to do the same.

I don't expect all of that to happen. But having all of these guys that we know CAN be great top 6 players is a fun thing to see develop and gives us the luxury of being able to potentially move a winger or two without having to acquire one. I like Kreids a lot and I'd like to keep him but if we can get a good return we absolutely should move him. I also think we should pursue Panarin unless FLA throws him a blank check, because if you look at that top 6 full of young inexperienced guys other than Zbad and Kreids (Buch is getting there but still...), we have ONE right shot and a lack of good centers. If Zbad goes down we have zero right shots and no top 6 center. Then we have bottom 6 guys playing above their level. If we sign Panarin and try Kakko at center (since I really think Chytil will be a permanent winger and Lias will max out at 3rd/4th line ability, with Howden as a good 3rd) assuming Jersey drafts Hughes, then we have much more flexibility up there. We keep two veteran players, one being an elite righty, and then balance out the rest with whoever is adapting and improving quicker.

So many moving parts and question marks going forward. I'm actually happy I'm not Gorts and Quinn right now.I can sit here armchair GM'ing my butt off with no consequence. They have to figure out how to handle two potential studs coming in at once along with other young guys developing, moving a few people, possibly acquiring a few more, and if that wasn't enough? The D situation and then the goalie situation if Shesty comes over.

The one good thing Gorts has going for him is not having to decide if he wants Hughes or Kakko. As long as they don't pick Podkolzin. I'll flip a table then. I almost did with Kravtsov and was (probably) wrong, but if they do this...

Also Montreal really wants the second Suzuki. And so do I. It'd be awesome to move up and grab him as a center if we're getting Kakko.

 

[Trxjw]

I had a vision of Kreider - Kakko - Kravtsov together (unfortunate potential nickname aside...) since we really don't have anyone to fill in behind Mika atm and if Kreider's still a Ranger we have a bunch of wingers.

That's a line that could be really impressive, tons of fun to watch for us, and a nightmare for other teams to defend.

There are a lot of ways this can go but even if we move Kreider and don't sign Panarin, our top 6 is going to be pretty great. Maybe not immediately next season like many seem to expect, but soon. For it to be great next season we need Buchnevich to continue as he was, Chytil to not show only flashes of the skill he has (yes I know he's very young), Kakko/Hughes to step in immediately and not require easing in, and Kravtsov to do the same.

I don't expect all of that to happen. But having all of these guys that we know CAN be great top 6 players is a fun thing to see develop and gives us the luxury of being able to potentially move a winger or two without having to acquire one. I like Kreids a lot and I'd like to keep him but if we can get a good return we absolutely should move him. I also think we should pursue Panarin unless FLA throws him a blank check, because if you look at that top 6 full of young inexperienced guys other than Zbad and Kreids (Buch is getting there but still...), we have ONE right shot and a lack of good centers. If Zbad goes down we have zero right shots and no top 6 center. Then we have bottom 6 guys playing above their level. If we sign Panarin and try Kakko at center (since I really think Chytil will be a permanent winger and Lias will max out at 3rd/4th line ability, with Howden as a good 3rd) assuming Jersey drafts Hughes, then we have much more flexibility up there. We keep two veteran players, one being an elite righty, and then balance out the rest with whoever is adapting and improving quicker.

So many moving parts and question marks going forward. I'm actually happy I'm not Gorts and Quinn right now.I can sit here armchair GM'ing my butt off with no consequence. They have to figure out how to handle two potential studs coming in at once along with other young guys developing, moving a few people, possibly acquiring a few more, and if that wasn't enough? The D situation and then the goalie situation if Shesty comes over.

The one good thing Gorts has going for him is not having to decide if he wants Hughes or Kakko. As long as they don't pick Podkolzin. I'll flip a table then. I almost did with Kravtsov and was (probably) wrong, but if they do this...

Also Montreal really wants the second Suzuki. And so do I. It'd be awesome to move up and grab him as a center if we're getting Kakko.

The problem with that line is I don't see Kakko as a center, nor Kravtsov. That could certainly change, but they're both wingers for me right now. If Kakko could move to the middle? Yeah that could be a dominant line.

I think patience and tempered expectations are needed for next year. Sasha Barkov, a very comparable talent to Kakko, took two years before he started producing at a high rate. Kravtsov is a very talented player, but he's a kid away from home and will need some time to adjust. I think if Kakko notches 50 points and Kravtsov can put up 30, that's a very successful rookie year for both players. Now, that kind of production from those two isn't putting us in the playoffs next year, but it's a very promising sign for the future.

If we can get that out of those two, and some marked improvement from Chytil, Andersson, Howden, ADA, etc, then that'll be a very good year. Yes, we'll probably still be a bottom-10 team, but it's likely to be a team that continues to work hard and lay a solid foundation for the future.

I don't think you need to worry about the Rangers going off the board. Kakko is the guy, and if he's not the guy it's because Jersey bucked the consensus and we're taking Jack Hughes.

 

[DutchShamrock]

Kreider doesn't really make sense for a team like Edmonton, even if he makes sense as a winger for McDavid on paper. They're going to rebuild things a bit there and they probably want a young player they can bring into the core.

I'd wonder how available Kapanen would be in Toronto. He'd be a good piece to add in Edmonton. Could the Rangers threaten an offer-sheet at a 2nd round pick compensation, strike a deal for a 2019 2nd instead, and then flip Kapanen and the Jets pick to the Oilers for #8? Is a 22 year old righty-shot winger coming off a 20 goal season enough to move up 12 spots? Tough to say.

Yeah, between the limited NTC and UFA approaching, I don't see Kreider as the piece without an extension. Too many teams could step up. Columbus may want to recoup a draft pick. Winnipeg too. They have some nice, young players. I mean, if a 50 point winger with 1 year left is the price, most teams can meet that ask.

I think the price for #8 is going to hurt. If all Edmonton can return is Kreider and a pick in the 20s, they can just trade out of the American College kid cluster and pick up a draftee with more control in the teens and add another asset.

 

[Cag29]

Lafreniere

Oh yeah !!!

 

[Lays]

So which LW In next year’s top 7 fits next to Zibanejad and Kravtsov then?

Perfetti.

 

[Barnaby]

Winnipeg drops another game... down 0-2