Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19: Part V (Lottery 04/09 8PM EST)

[pblawr]

His skating is awesome, actually. There were videos of him going down the side against defenders and blowing by them. He faired well in the KHL. His skating is like Buchnevich's, but at 18 he's got plenty of room for development.

Watch #54 close on Dorofeyev here. 80 and 81 catch up to him pretty easily too and 74 did not seem to have a hard time staying in front of him.

 

[Barnaby]

"Allaire has obviously done a terrific job as a goalie coach, but the Rangers have drafted quite a few goalie duds over the years. I realize you're going to miss, but wow. If he's the guru, then I'd assume they have him look at these guys.

Im not going to judge him on late rounders but Halverson, Lafleur, and now Lindbom are premium picks. I believe he was around when they chose Montoya as well. I could be wrong but I think I remember him commenting about Montoya many moons ago."

@Barnaby

I couldn't quote this from the last thread, but I'd thought it would be fair to give my rebuttal. I would only consider Halverson as his only miss. I don't think he was the goalie coach when Lafleur was with NYR. Lindbom was only drafted last summer, so it's unfair to count him in that group. But he also helped bring Raanta and Talbot to starting caliber careers and resurrected Pavelec in his short stint. That and obviously Lundqvist.

But he also gets credit with what he did in Phoenix before the Rangers helping Sean Burke, Brian Boucher and Nikolai Khabibulin.

I wouldn't criticize his coaching at all - didn't mean for it to come off that way. I think he's probably one of the best around - maybe the best.

I was questioning the goalies drafted. I don't know how much input, if any, that he has in that. I was just mentioning some misses that they've had using premium picks. You make a good point on Talbot and Raanta. If he's consulting on the draft picks then he's also probably consulted on free agency / pros who have been mostly positive.

 

[Ola]

Rankings change. Craig is CHL-centric and IIHF. He was in Plymouth this weekend for both games. Other years he goes to USHS and NCAA. It’s very common for players to get a low ranking based on limited viewings. I had Cale Makar like 228 in my early 2016 rankings because I thought he was just taking advantage of a weaker league. He was fourth by season’s end.

There are over 1000 kids eligible over two continents. It’s literally impossible to scout all of them by March, unless you’re some psycho coked-up freak with rich parents and no family, job or school. Three full months left before the draft, so Button has time to catch up.

That man puts in more work than pretty much any of the draft guys or posters here. He does TSN Radio, NHL games, Sportscenter on occasion and scouts on the road as well. Just because he leans towards what he sees, that doesn’t make him incompetant.

There literally is no NHL draft expert. There’s no draft expert in any sport. Everybody - scouts, GMs, fans and media — are guilty of incredibly stupid and moronic takes, with an occasional hit here and there.

You are right of course, but it also depends on how many kids you focus on. I did a top 31 last season. I excluded guys I couldn't get eyes on, Bokk, Demisenko, Hayton among others, and focused on the top guys I could get to see. Granted that I should have seen more of just about everyone, I was short on all fronts, but I don't really think I got any legit excuses. When you can start to close the books on that draft in 5-10 years bad reads will have been made due to my incompetence.

But as of now, I am very proud of that ranking. I made it on April 28 and tried to go by what I saw and be as little influnced as possible by others, and even if its way to early to call anything, I can note that I made some reads that are looking really good (and its so hard not to be influenced, I know I wanted to rank Wahlstrom lower than I ended up doing, but I was affected by everyone having him as high as they did). Nobody had Kotkaniemi higher than 15 -- IIRC -- when I had him 6. I had Kravtsov at 9 when few had him that high. I really liked K'Andre Miller and I like what I have seen of him after the draft too. Given what I've seen of some kids after the draft, I also like that I didn't have a bunch of guys like Bouchard, Dobson, Velano and the likes higher than I did. Given where obviously all NHL teams had him, my ranking of Bode Wilde was an extreme head scratcher. My bad. But otherwise I am looking forward to see how my calls went in relation to how these kids turns out.

My point is just, you are of course right that its completely impossible for one guy to watch everyone. But regarding the top guys, if you watch them extensively, I do think a lot can be done. Its not just a lotto.

 

[Ola]

Krebs at 17 is rediculous.

Is it? I love the concept of Krebs, but he just seem to be a little weak overall. Not the most skilled kid, not the smartest kid, not the strongest kid.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Is it? I love the concept of Krebs, but he just seem to be a little weak overall. Not the most skilled kid, not the smartest kid, not the strongest kid.

Not the smartest?

Wat...

He’s incredibly intelligent, one of the highest IQ’s of any player available.

He has more skill than he gets credit for too.

Strength is something anyone can add.

 

[LaffyTaffy]

Where we are right now, if we pick at 4/5. I think my final choice is Turcotte. IF Turcotte goes before Byram, I take Byram. I like Turcotte more than Dach and Cozens, and I have him higher than Zegras and Boldy. I think Turcotte can be a #1C at the NHL level.

 

[Ola]

Buttons draft rankings is the worst ranking i've ever seen…

Samuel Fagemo isn't even ranked top 93, he's having a D+1 (overager) season now that's worthy of a top 10 pick. He has 6 goalies ahead of Ilya Konovalov (atleast, not ranked). Dorofeyev not ranked, Honka not ranked… list goes on...

This is absolutely atrocious and needs to be completely disregarded.

I think you are looking for faults a bit too much, I don't really see a the link between the five examples you mention and the statement that the rankings of all 93 kids should be disregarded.

From my POV I feel like Button in more or less every instance has the same raisers and fallers I've talked about the last months. The US kids are up, up and up. Definitely think they deserve it. Caufield is way up too. Cozens reminds fairly high, but Dach is dropping a lot. Lavoie is gaining a ton of ground on both Dach and Krebs. Definitely think that is warranted.

From a NYR POV I am not keen of Byram, but in a ranking like this both him and Knight are where they should be.

Jack Hughes is a runaway No 1 from my POV. But my prediction is that others will close the gap on Kakko for No 2 after the U18s.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Where we are right now, if we pick at 4/5. I think my final choice is Turcotte. IF Turcotte goes before Byram, I take Byram. I like Turcotte more than Dach and Cozens, and I have him higher than Zegras and Boldy. I think Turcotte can be a #1C at the NHL level.

Byram or Cozens depending on who is still available.

Turcotte is a pretty good winger at the NHL level IMO. Jason Zucker type.

 

[Ola]

Where we are right now, if we pick at 4/5. I think my final choice is Turcotte. IF Turcotte goes before Byram, I take Byram. I like Turcotte more than Dach and Cozens, and I have him higher than Zegras and Boldy. I think Turcotte can be a #1C at the NHL level.

The annoying thing is that if we finish 5, our most likely pick is actually the 6th overall pick... Hope that Byram goes before that. Hughes, Kakko, Byram. That is 3. Two of Turcotte, Zegras, vPod and Cozens will be on the table when we pick.

 

[LaffyTaffy]

If we drop to 5 I am hoping the teams in front of us at 3 and 4 are silly enough to take Dach/Cozens/Vpod. Leaves us with a choice between Turcotte or Byram which I think are the best players in the 3-7 range. Turcotte and Byram each have organization altering potential that simply push the prospect pool over the top. Take a few gambles at the back end of the 1st round and perfectly round out the pool.
Krava
Turcotte
Miller
Lundkvist
Heinola
Dorofeyev
Pelletier?
I mean this can get really crazy in a few years.

 

[LaffyTaffy]

Byram or Cozens depending on who is still available.

Turcotte is a pretty good winger at the NHL level IMO. Jason Zucker type.

The annoying thing is that if we finish 5, our most likely pick is actually the 6th overall pick... Hope that Byram goes before that. Hughes, Kakko, Byram. That is 3. Two of Turcotte, Zegras, vPod and Cozens will be on the table when we pick.

I am like 99% sure that NHL GMs see Cozens as the "clear" #3 behind Hughes Kakko.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I am like 99% sure that NHL GMs see Cozens as the "clear" #3 behind Hughes Kakko.

Then I happily take Byram at 4.

 

[True Blue]

Where we are right now, if we pick at 4/5. I think my final choice is Turcotte. IF Turcotte goes before Byram, I take Byram. I like Turcotte more than Dach and Cozens, and I have him higher than Zegras and Boldy. I think Turcotte can be a #1C at the NHL level.

Let's play the game that in your scenario, Podkolzin is off the board. My choices would then be Byram, Cozens/Dach, Boldy, Turcotte, Zegras. The last three are very close, but as of now, I have Boldy slightly ahead.

Take a few gambles at the back end of the 1st round and perfectly round out the pool.

Krava
Turcotte
Miller
Lundkvist
Heinola
Dorofeyev
Pelletier?
I mean this can get really crazy in a few years.​

Dorofeyev definitely. Pelletier. Maybe Nikolaev. I like Poulin as well, but think that he may be there when the Rangers pick early in the second.

This is also presuming that they Rangers do not take their second first (for not, pretending that there are no others) and their early 2nd and do not try to move up into the early twenties to take one of these (Dorofeyev, am looking at you). Or someone like a Newhook IF he drops.​

 

[True Blue]

Then I happily take Byram at 4.

And run

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Bobo Carpenter to the Isles

 

[FIRE DRURY]

You can't go wrong with Cozens or Byram at 3, just a matter of preference. I would lean towards Byram, but even if Gorton went with Cozens I would be ecstatic that we got a prospect like that.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

”Nobody had Kotkaniemi higher then 15” is just wrong, he was top 15 on pretty much every list i saw and i had him top 10 ‍

@Ola

 

[RangerBoy]

Bobby Carpenter was one of the worst if not THE worst Ranger player ever. It’s hard to think of a more brutal acquisition than Carpenter. I am glad his demon seed isn’t a Ranger.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

”Nobody had Kotkaniemi higher then 15” is just wrong, he was top 15 on pretty much every list i saw and i had him top 10 ‍

@Ola

I expected Kotkaniemi to go top-10 easily.

There's a good chance we won't see a Canadian in the top-5. Dahlin, Svechnikov, Zadina, Hughes, Wahlstrom, Kotkaniemi, Tkachuk. They could all go in the top-5. Highest drafted Canadian this year will probably be Bouchard/Dobson and that could be as low as 9

Once it was clear Montreal was targeting a center, Kotkaniemi was destined to go 3rd overall.

 

[LaffyTaffy]

I would be very happy with Byram at 4 as well, but I would prefer Turcotte. I will be just as excited to have Byram in the system. I believe those guys are the 3rd and 4th best players in the draft in no particular order, that is how good I think they are. I do not believe the hype on Cozens, Dach and vPod. Dorofeyev is the best russian in the draft and that is who I target at pick #31. If we take Byram at 4 then my pick at Winnipeg's spot is Tomasino, or Brink if he is available. In the 2nd I take swings at Pelletier/Hoglander, those two guys are 1st round talents who will drop due to "size" issues. 3rd round I look to hopefully pick up Patrik Puistola. In the 4th, I feel that Kolyachonok will drop and that is my guy cuz Belarussian bias and he is #actuallygood. 5th round I take a goalie like Wolf/Wallstedt. 6th round I take an overager, ideally Justin Bergeron. 7th rounder I take a gamble on either an overager, or someone who was barely old enough to qualify for the draft, maybe Vladimir Bakanin?

I went full BERN. Here is my draft scenario.
1st round: Byram/Turcotte, Heinola/Tomasino/Brink, Dorofeyev
2nd round: Pelletier, Hoglander
3rd round: Puistola
4th round: Kolyachonok
5th round: Wolf/Wallstedt
6th round: Bergeron
7th round: Bakanin

Edit: I am bored in class, not on drugs

 

[Rangers in 7]

I would be very happy with Byram at 4 as well, but I would prefer Turcotte. I will be just as excited to have Byram in the system. I believe those guys are the 3rd and 4th best players in the draft in no particular order, that is how good I think they are. I do not believe the hype on Cozens, Dach and vPod. Dorofeyev is the best russian in the draft and that is who I target at pick #31. If we take Byram at 4 then my pick at Winnipeg's spot is Tomasino, or Brink if he is available. In the 2nd I take swings at Pelletier/Hoglander, those two guys are 1st round talents who will drop due to "size" issues. 3rd round I look to hopefully pick up Patrik Puistola. In the 4th, I feel that Kolyachonok will drop and that is my guy cuz Belarussian bias and he is #actuallygood. 5th round I take a goalie like Wolf/Wallstedt. 6th round I take an overager, ideally Justin Bergeron. 7th rounder I take a gamble on either an overager, or someone who was barely old enough to qualify for the draft, maybe Vladimir Bakanin?

I went full BERN. Here is my draft scenario.
1st round: Byram/Turcotte, Heinola/Tomasino/Brink, Dorofeyev
2nd round: Pelletier, Hoglander
3rd round: Puistola
4th round: Kolyachonok
5th round: Wolf/Wallstedt
6th round: Bergeron
7th round: Bakanin

Edit: I am bored in class, not on drugs

orrrr you are bored and on drugs

 

[pblawr]

I would be very happy with Byram at 4 as well, but I would prefer Turcotte. I will be just as excited to have Byram in the system. I believe those guys are the 3rd and 4th best players in the draft in no particular order, that is how good I think they are. I do not believe the hype on Cozens, Dach and vPod. Dorofeyev is the best russian in the draft and that is who I target at pick #31. If we take Byram at 4 then my pick at Winnipeg's spot is Tomasino, or Brink if he is available. In the 2nd I take swings at Pelletier/Hoglander, those two guys are 1st round talents who will drop due to "size" issues. 3rd round I look to hopefully pick up Patrik Puistola. In the 4th, I feel that Kolyachonok will drop and that is my guy cuz Belarussian bias and he is #actuallygood. 5th round I take a goalie like Wolf/Wallstedt. 6th round I take an overager, ideally Justin Bergeron. 7th rounder I take a gamble on either an overager, or someone who was barely old enough to qualify for the draft, maybe Vladimir Bakanin?

I went full BERN. Here is my draft scenario.
1st round: Byram/Turcotte, Heinola/Tomasino/Brink, Dorofeyev
2nd round: Pelletier, Hoglander
3rd round: Puistola
4th round: Kolyachonok
5th round: Wolf/Wallstedt
6th round: Bergeron
7th round: Bakanin

Edit: I am bored in class, not on drugs

I like Kolyachonok and would be on board with him in the late 1st or 2nd . It's tough to think of how else you could stack the deck against the guy - he's a late birthday, in his first year in a foreign country and a new league, on the 2nd worst team in the OHL - and he's had a very solid year anyway. He's also one of the best skaters in the draft and has good size. He seems to me like the kind of guy who could explode as he develops / gets placed in better situations. I''m all for swinging for upside on guys like that and if Kolyachonok isn't better than what he's looked like, it's not like that's a disaster anyway.

 

[QJL]

Byram or Cozens depending on who is still available.

Turcotte is a pretty good winger at the NHL level IMO. Jason Zucker type.

Of the top 10ish center prospects (Hughes, Dach, Cozens, Turcotte, Zegras, Newhook), Turcotte is the most likely to remain a center in my opinion.

I think Zegras becomes a wing and Hughes is 50/50z

 

[Ola]

”Nobody had Kotkaniemi higher then 15” is just wrong, he was top 15 on pretty much every list i saw and i had him top 10 ‍

@Ola

Mid April???

 

[Lion Hound]

Is it? I love the concept of Krebs, but he just seem to be a little weak overall. Not the most skilled kid, not the smartest kid, not the strongest kid.

Not sure where that is coming Ola? Ive watched a lot of him. He is consistently one of the best players on the ice. I def see him as a very cerebral player who has skills and an edge to his game. He's a competitor.

 

[Ola]

I am like 99% sure that NHL GMs see Cozens as the "clear" #3 behind Hughes Kakko.

I am turning a bit on Cozens, he is darn talented. Everyone had him so high for a while, clear 3-4 at least. I was just so impressed with the US kids, think they where doing so much more right than the rest. I kind of felt that it would be darn hard for a kid like Cozens to keep up with them.

But I’ve watched more of him lately. He is a really good scorer. He isn’t my dream pick in terms of style, I would much rather see someone who is more of a playmaker type.

I can’t at this point pin down where it will happen, but high in the top 5-10 you will get to a point where you can’t pass on Cozens because he is such a good scorer.