Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19: Part V (Lottery 04/09 8PM EST)

[Edge]

And if you took the consensus ranking of Kravstov this time last year he wouldn't have been a first-rounder.

There is still three months to go before this draft.....

This is the time of the year where prospects become like politics and religion — very sensitive subjects.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

McKenzie was also a guy who talked about teams liking Kravtsov higher in the draft as well, especially as it got closer.

If anyone’s looking for the Philsopher’s Stone, there’s none to be found.

For people looking for an insight into how thoughts evolve and how things are shaping up for approaches, that’s where TSN can have its uses.

Agreed, but it doesn't work if players are excluded for not being "viewed enough". How does Button watch enough of Daniil Gutik, but not Pavel Dorofeyev? It's much, much easier to follow Dorofeyev

 

[Bluenote13]

This is the time of the year where prospects become like politics and religion — very sensitive subjects.

Yeah I know what you mean, and I didn't even mention the part where all the other boards are pretty much crucifying Jack Hughes, trying to set themselves up for when they don't win the lottery

 

[Lays]

Something to what Edge said the other day. The only place that seems to have Podklozin falling is HF.

And wow. Nikolaev not only in the first round, but at #12. I like him as a second rounder, but top 15?

If the draft broke anything like this, I would be ecstatic. Byran/Cozens/Boldy, Newhook, Ryan Johnson/Tomasino/Vlasic/Foote? Sign me up.

I really dislike Button’s rankings but Nikolayev we agree on. I have him at 11 (and he’s finally surpassed Dorofeyev for me)
His defensive game is exceptional and his play style is very similar to Crosby’s

 

[Edge]

Agreed, but it doesn't work if players are excluded for not being "viewed enough". How does Button watch enough of Daniil Gutik, but not Pavel Dorofeyev? It's much, much easier to follow Dorofeyev

It depends on what you’re reading it for.

If you’re looking for a great talent evaluator, Button is not a go-to source.

If you’re looking to get a feel for how a lot of prospects are generally viewed by the teams making the picks, it’s provides some early insight.

I’ll almost bet dollars to doughnuts that Craig’s views are....shall we say gleamed from multiple sources.

So once you get past that, and whatever he calls it (rankings, a mock, whatever), you see where it fits into a bigger picture.

 

[Edge]

Yeah I know what you mean, and I didn't even mention the part where all the other boards are pretty much crucifying Jack Hughes, trying to set themselves up for when they don't win the lottery

There are two currents I try to be mindful of as we approach the draft:

The first is the jockeying for position that takes place as people try to assert themselves at the smartest person on their respective boards.

The second is the hedging that takes place as people either downplay the skills of the guys they won’t get, or upsell the skills of the guys they might.

It usually crests around the time of the lottery. So this year we should get some resolution a little sooner.

 

[Barnaby]

Agreed, but it doesn't work if players are excluded for not being "viewed enough". How does Button watch enough of Daniil Gutik, but not Pavel Dorofeyev? It's much, much easier to follow Dorofeyev

Very good chance he isn't seeing much of either player. He probably sees the North American guys on occasion, and gets info on the Euro guys via tournaments and contacts within the sport. He puts a list together for fan interest which is fun, but he's not making franchise altering decisions as a GM. Hence, I doubt he's watching much tape on European guys unless maybe they're considered top flight picks. I would guess it's probably based more on contacts from his time in the league though I could be wrong.

 

[Edge]

Very good chance he isn't seeing much of either player. He probably sees the North American guys on occasion, and gets info on the Euro guys via tournaments and contacts within the sport. He puts a list together for fan interest which is fun, but he's not making franchise altering decisions as a GM. Hence, I doubt he's watching much tape on European guys unless maybe they're considered top flight picks. I would guess it's probably based more on contacts from his time in the league though I could be wrong.

I would say he and McKenzie have somewhat similar approaches. They get a feel for which players are talked about, then they go back and do some research to create a more fleshed out presentation.

For most people I’d probably break it down like this:

If you want to know WHAT a prospect is capable of, and WHY people believe that way, don’t go to TSN (Button, McKenzie, etc.)

If you want to know HOW a prospect is viewed by a lot of teams, and WHERE they might go in the draft, TSN is worth looking at.

TSN isn’t going to be the first place you’ll read about a guy like Dorofeyev and what he’s capable of. However, there’s a good chance they’ll have a pretty good indication as to whether that will manifest itself with an earlier selection on draft day.

 

[Barnaby]

Not to change the topic, but I'm curious about Turcotte. Obviously Hughes is considered the more talented prospect and is projected to go first, but how big of a talent gap are we talking about here? I read somewhere that their coach made a comment along the lines of Hughes being the better player, but Turcotte has been the more valuable player to the team. I take that to mean that Turcotte is a more 200 foot player. I guess my questions are does Turcotte have the potential to be a top line center, and is the talent level THAT far apart?

 

[Levitate]

Pretty much this. Bob gets his ranking from who he talks to. Remember the draft day talk on Kravtsov that someone had him near the top 5 and Bob pushed him up to around where we were picking? Have to think Bob's rankings are coming from teams shying away from Russian players.

McKenzie was also a guy who talked about teams liking Kravtsov higher in the draft as well, especially as it got closer.

I think McKenzie was literally talking about the Rangers when he made those comments about Kravtsov wasn't he?

 

[Edge]

Not to change the topic, but I'm curious about Turcotte. Obviously Hughes is considered the more talented prospect and is projected to go first, but how big of a talent gap are we talking about here? I read somewhere that their coach made a comment along the lines of Hughes being the better player, but Turcotte has been the more valuable player to the team. I take that to mean that Turcotte is a more 200 foot player. I guess my questions are does Turcotte have the potential to be a top line center, and is the talent level THAT far apart?

Turcotte’s a very good prospect. But I’d say there’s probably more debate between him and Zegras, than either of them and Hughes.

Turcotte has done an exceptional job on the wings this year, and definitely gave them a huge energy boost when he came back from his injury.

I am curious as to how teams project him though.

Before this season, most would’ve said he was probably more of playmaker or balanced offensive forward, albeit a little undersized.

However, he’s shown a whole new side to his goal scoring ability this year, while adding muscle, and (supposedly) maybe a little height as well. His 200 foot game has also continued to grow and he’s been the guy the coaching staff has been comfortable deploying in different roles.

In fact, one of the biggest compliments you can give both Turcotte and Zegras is their adaptability. Both guys have looked very good on the wings, and I honestly think that both guys would be perfectly capable scoring more goals if the US team didn’t have some strong goal scoring options over the last couple of years.

 

[Edge]

I think McKenzie was literally talking about the Rangers when he made those comments about Kravtsov wasn't he?

I think the Rangers are one of the “10” he’s allowed to reference.

With that said, if he takes the same approach he has for years, he actually talks to more than double that amount.

However, there are a number of guys who are fiercely protective of having something potentially linked back to them, so they don’t want to be “counted.” It’s rather silly to me, because in theory you’re already talking to the guy, but to each his own.

So Bob will source 10 scouts, who will give him their views on a greater number of prospects, factor in the opinions of 10-15 others who contribute info on a smaller number of guys, and then he creates a list that attempts to blend things.

 

[Lays]

Not to change the topic, but I'm curious about Turcotte. Obviously Hughes is considered the more talented prospect and is projected to go first, but how big of a talent gap are we talking about here? I read somewhere that their coach made a comment along the lines of Hughes being the better player, but Turcotte has been the more valuable player to the team. I take that to mean that Turcotte is a more 200 foot player. I guess my questions are does Turcotte have the potential to be a top line center, and is the talent level THAT far apart?

Just my opinion but I think Turcotte is closer to Hughes than Zegras (my 3rd NTDP guy) is to Turcotte

 

[Mac n Gs]

I really dislike Button’s rankings but Nikolayev we agree on. I have him at 11 (and he’s finally surpassed Dorofeyev for me)
His defensive game is exceptional and his play style is very similar to Crosby’s

Can you or @Bluenote13 elaborate more on him? I see he’s one of the younger skaters in the draft, but his stats don’t really jump off the page. Is it a limited role on his team?

 

[Lays]

Can you or @Bluenote13 elaborate more on him? I see he’s one of the younger skaters in the draft, but his stats don’t really jump off the page. Is it a limited role on his team?

MHL stats are really misleading, I wouldn’t pay much attention to them

I think I summed it up with my last post on him but he gets to the dirty areas, he battles in front of the net and that’s where/how he creates a lot of his offense. He just thinks the game at a very high level. These types of descriptions are usually reserved for low upside players but Nikolayev has some high end tools in his skating (puck control is incredible), shot, and deking. Always plays with 100% effort and can get physical (though he doesn’t seek it.) His defensive game is second to only Turcotte in this draft (for forwards), again just smart defensively. He’s not a “typical” Russian player. He doesn’t have upside for 70+ but I think he can be a stud 2C. When asked about a player he models his game after, Nikolayev responded with Bergeron (although again, I’m going to throw the Crosby comparison out there)

He’s been really impressive in the playoffs as well

 

[Edge]

Just my opinion but I think Turcotte is closer to Hughes than Zegras (my 3rd NTDP guy) is to Turcotte

I think any team that gets either Turcotte or Zegras is getting a great prospect.

For me, Turcotte’s been there for more than a year. Zegras forced himself into my radar this year and just kept getting better.

But if Hughes, Kakko, Byram and Cozens are off the board, I’d have no problem taking ether guy starting at 5. And even then, I don’t think there’s a huge gap between them and Byram/Cozens.

 

[AlternateSideParking]

Rankings change. Craig is CHL-centric and IIHF. He was in Plymouth this weekend for both games. Other years he goes to USHS and NCAA. It’s very common for players to get a low ranking based on limited viewings. I had Cale Makar like 228 in my early 2016 rankings because I thought he was just taking advantage of a weaker league. He was fourth by season’s end.

There are over 1000 kids eligible over two continents. It’s literally impossible to scout all of them by March, unless you’re some psycho coked-up freak with rich parents and no family, job or school. Three full months left before the draft, so Button has time to catch up.

That man puts in more work than pretty much any of the draft guys or posters here. He does TSN Radio, NHL games, Sportscenter on occasion and scouts on the road as well. Just because he leans towards what he sees, that doesn’t make him incompetant.

There literally is no NHL draft expert. There’s no draft expert in any sport. Everybody - scouts, GMs, fans and media — are guilty of incredibly stupid and moronic takes, with an occasional hit here and there.

 

[Mac n Gs]

MHL stats are really misleading, I wouldn’t pay much attention to them

I think I summed it up with my last post on him but he gets to the dirty areas, he battles in front of the net and that’s where/how he creates a lot of his offense. He just thinks the game at a very high level. These types of descriptions are usually reserved for low upside players but Nikolayev has some high end tools in his skating (puck control is incredible), shot, and deking. Always plays with 100% effort and can get physical (though he doesn’t seek it.) His defensive game is second to only Turcotte in this draft (for forwards), again just smart defensively. He’s not a “typical” Russian player. He doesn’t have upside for 70+ but I think he can be a stud 2C. When asked about a player he models his game after, Nikolayev responded with Bergeron (although again, I’m going to throw the Crosby comparison out there)

He’s been really impressive in the playoffs as well

Awesome, thanks! Is it safe to assume he’ll be at the U18s for Russia? I vaguely remember him on the U17 squad, but I haven’t really paid any attention to Euro/Russian prospects this year.

 

[Lays]

Awesome, thanks! Is it safe to assume he’ll be at the U18s for Russia? I vaguely remember him on the U17 squad, but I haven’t really paid any attention to Euro/Russian prospects this year.

Correct unless I’m missing something

 

[Edge]

Rankings change. Craig is CHL-centric and IIHF. He was in Plymouth this weekend for both games. Other years he goes to USHS and NCAA. It’s very common for players to get a low ranking based on limited viewings. I had Cale Makar like 228 in my early 2016 rankings because I thought he was just taking advantage of a weaker league. He was fourth by season’s end.

There are over 1000 kids eligible over two continents. It’s literally impossible to scout all of them by March, unless you’re some psycho coked-up freak with rich parents and no family, job or school. Three full months left before the draft, so Button has time to catch up.

That man puts in more work than pretty much any of the draft guys or posters here. He does TSN Radio, NHL games, Sportscenter on occasion and scouts on the road as well. Just because he leans towards what he sees, that doesn’t make him incompetant.

There literally is no NHL draft expert. There’s no draft expert in any sport. Everybody - scouts, GMs, fans and media — are guilty of incredibly stupid and moronic takes, with an occasional hit here and there.

It can be very easy to get so married to the images we have in our head, that any deviation seems strange.

I’ll use Zegras as an example. McKenzie said one scout had him fourth, Button has him fourth, and I personally think he might be the George Harrison of this draft. But for others who had different images in their mind, that might seem jarring.

Podkolzin is another one. He’s lower on our board, but I have yet to talk to people who him as consistently low as we do. And I say that as someone who had him at 3 for a while and has dropped him lower in recent months.

But the draft is always such an interesting process to watch unfold because people start to form very deep attachments to guys.

But man, there are so many variables at play between now and then.

 

[Joey Bones]

"Allaire has obviously done a terrific job as a goalie coach, but the Rangers have drafted quite a few goalie duds over the years. I realize you're going to miss, but wow. If he's the guru, then I'd assume they have him look at these guys.

Im not going to judge him on late rounders but Halverson, Lafleur, and now Lindbom are premium picks. I believe he was around when they chose Montoya as well. I could be wrong but I think I remember him commenting about Montoya many moons ago."

@Barnaby

I couldn't quote this from the last thread, but I'd thought it would be fair to give my rebuttal. I would only consider Halverson as his only miss. I don't think he was the goalie coach when Lafleur was with NYR. Lindbom was only drafted last summer, so it's unfair to count him in that group. But he also helped bring Raanta and Talbot to starting caliber careers and resurrected Pavelec in his short stint. That and obviously Lundqvist.

But he also gets credit with what he did in Phoenix before the Rangers helping Sean Burke, Brian Boucher and Nikolai Khabibulin.

 

[Joey Bones]

Something to what Edge said the other day. The only place that seems to have Podklozin falling is HF.

And wow. Nikolaev not only in the first round, but at #12. I like him as a second rounder, but top 15?

If the draft broke anything like this, I would be ecstatic. Byran/Cozens/Boldy, Newhook, Ryan Johnson/Tomasino/Vlasic/Foote? Sign me up.

Nikolaev is another workhorse type player. No. 12 is definitely a reach, but the 20 range is reasonable, IMO.

 

[Joey Bones]

My recollection is that after Button ranked Kravtsov as his #1 prospect, Clarke did an interview where he said he respected Button's rankings bc he had been an NHL GM and actually traveled to see the games in person. Then you shared a post about how Clarke told you he thought you had to go scout players in person so you could see that what they did away from the puck or something to that effect.

I think Dorofeyev had very good hands and a very good shot and competes well, but my impression is that Kravtsov's skating and creativity / passing are on a different level than Dorofeyev's. It seems to me like there's some risk that Dorofeyev's skating could be an obstacle to him making it at the NHL level.

His skating is awesome, actually. There were videos of him going down the side against defenders and blowing by them. He faired well in the KHL. His skating is like Buchnevich's, but at 18 he's got plenty of room for development.

 

[Joey Bones]

Can you or @Bluenote13 elaborate more on him? I see he’s one of the younger skaters in the draft, but his stats don’t really jump off the page. Is it a limited role on his team?

Defensively responsible with a really good shot. I wouldn't necessarily say Crosby is his style of play, but maybe a better scoring version of Namestnikov/Mikael Backlund.

 

[Joey Bones]

No Bobo