Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19: Part V (Lottery 04/09 8PM EST)

[Off Sides]

This rebuilding will go on until at least 2021 because Hank, Staal, Shatty and Smith will not come off the cap until then. Nor will the 2018, 2019 and 2020 draftees be ready.

Gorts just made the Rangers significantly worse, losing Hayes and Zuccarello and replacing them with Lemieux and Vinni. The team that wasn't even close to the playoffs just lost of their best 4 skaters, their second and third highest scorers. Who replaces them? Kravtsov will be an instant first liner? Doubt it. Chytil and Howden average over .8 ppg per game? Would be shocked.

Even with Kreider, the Rangers will be the 3-5 worst team in the NHL next year. Maybe the worst. Without him, almost assuredly bottom-3.

The Rangers have been the second-worst NHL team since the TDL. If anything, it will have a worse roster in March 2020 than in March 2019 as we ship away Kreider, Vesey, Fast and Names in their last year before they hit the UFA.

The 2020-21 roster will still be stripped of all above average talent in their prime years (24-30) except Zibanejad. That's likely another top-5, maybe top-3 draft pick.

By then, the fans will be going crazy, with even the majority of today's supporters for a full, real rebuild. I assume the Rangers will use some of that cap space freed by the departure of Hank, Staal, Shatty and Smith on a star UFA or even two. If our 2019 first rounders are still developing in 2 years and will be rookies only in 2021-22, no problem at all.

That is close to my timeline should they follow through.

I'd say the 2021 deadline ends the stockpiling. If they can sell Shattenkirk, Staal, Smith they do, if not those deal just end that off-season.

From there they have just about every option they could should they not have unwisely used up their cap space.

Right now they have something like only ~12M committed beyond 2021.

I'm really hooping not to be disappointed out of this, the timeline is there and it makes sense, should they draft and develop well, keep their cap space pretty open, they are going to have tons of options to try to put much of everything in place pretty quickly starting in that 2021 off-season.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I think its a term thrown away way to easily, but the top of the 2020 draft should be really good in the top 5 at least. I have no idea who the top US kids are for that draft, but the above said will especially be true if they can contribute with a few kids for the top 5-10. Lafreniére might not be the next Crosby/McDavid, but he is at least Tavares level. Special kid that will become a special NHLer. Raymond and Holtz are so dynamic. Raymond is Pat Kane like. Holtz so good too. Like they are not only great talents, they are to the T what works in the game today. So much will happen and you can't even remotely try to map some kind of top 5-10 at this point. But those three are there already in the top 5-6 discussion at least, no doubt. The changes won't be to the negative, many others are on the verge.

Gorton should stay the course, get another high pick next season. Then I think its time to start getting more support for the kids, think the negative effects of sucking will be too high if we are down there much longer. It will take time no matter what and be a roller coaster ride after it, we could definitely still get high picks.

Huge Holtz fan. Kid is an absolute goal scoring machine.

 

[True Blue]

I continue to believe that most "observers" don't fully grasp how good Byram is.

We'll see how scouts view him, but I continue to believe Byram is the most underrated player at the top of this draft. I'd put Zegras second in that category.

Has to be. Again, Dhalin aside, Byram is the best defensive prospect in two drafts. How often does one get to say that? And he is on the younger side.

 

[Ola]

He is every now and then, but it’s pretty few and far between. You’re right though, he is more of a finesse defender

There is still a big difference in that regard between junior/college and the NHL. Its going to hurt in the NHL to go to the net when Miller is there. In College or in international hockey you can easily get 2 min for being a bit un-gentle when you defend the crease, that won't be the case in the NHL.

Miller is just that type, the elbows are sharp, the small slashes will be hard, those cross checks when he is just fending himself will be bruising. When he clears the puck around the boards, if you are close to the ice or watch carefully, its like damn what a velocity that puck had. When he dumps the puck in the janitor goes 'watch the glass'.

He is just a little stronger, harder, than the average guy in the elite hockey player category that he is in.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Here’s that sick Turcotte goal from a few games ago. Shows a little bit of Boldy’s strength too as a puck carrier with some playmaking skills

 

[offdacrossbar]

Two legit NHL forwards? Think that's a bit of an exaggeration, no?

Our D core is suspect but ADA looks extremely promising and could certainly become a first pairing defenseman if he continues to improve. I still think there's a decent chance of him regressing, but he's on the right path. Extrapolate his stats over a full season and he's at 50-60 points... There ain't a lot of D in this league putting up those type of numbers

As ****ty as our D is now we have a lot of help waiting in the wings.

Also, if we end up with a top 3- p4 pickit isn't going to take 3 years for that pick to make a difference unless they totally botch it.

actually no.

other than 93 and 20 name one. 13 and 36 are gone. they were the other 2.

buchnevich ? vesey ? fast. what have they accomplished ?

this forward group is brutal. period.

there's no help in hartford. whos helping next year? kravtsov ? hell need 2 yrs min to make an impact.

dark days indeed.

 

[offdacrossbar]

Agreed 2 is a severe exaggeration

Zibby
Kreids
Buch
Strome
Names
Fast
Vesey

All NHL guys, were just completely empty on elite talent.

Also Skjei and ADA are top 4 defenseman. With Miller/Lundqvist/Hajek/Rykov all with the potential to also be top 4 talents.

We need to find elite talent on both ends of the rink now. And these next two years are our best chances at doing so. While also having the extra first round picks to fill in more potential depth behind them. We really need to hit on our firsts these next two years. It’s pretty much critical to this rebuild that we not miss.

lol. really ?

that list

lets have some fun.

buchnevich was toast earlier this year. his recent play not withstanding, he was on his way out and some had him back to the K. he's had more ice and more prime minutes with 13 and 36 gone but hes still an enigma wrapped in a mystery. hes an NHL forward no doubt but hes still a fringe player at this point.

strome ? really.

names... same as strome.

fast and vesey. ugh. these are not players that will make us better. these are role players who are important but will not help us crawl out from the darkness.

our forwards aren't very good

 

[Dijock94]

lol. really ?

that list

lets have some fun.

buchnevich was toast earlier this year. his recent play not withstanding, he was on his way out and some had him back to the K. he's had more ice and more prime minutes with 13 and 36 gone but hes still an enigma wrapped in a mystery. hes an NHL forward no doubt but hes still a fringe player at this point.

strome ? really.

names... same as strome.

fast and vesey. ugh. these are not players that will make us better. these are role players who are important but will not help us crawl out from the darkness.

our forwards aren't very good

These are all NHL level forward are they not? What do you expect to have 12 Kreiders and Zibanejads. Get real dude.

I was disagreeing with your point of having two NHL level forwards, which is dead wrong. If you meant we have two first line NHL players than that’s what you should have typed.

 

[offdacrossbar]

These are all NHL level forward are they not? What do you expect to have 12 Kreiders and Zibanejads. Get real dude.

no dude. i said legit NHL forwards and by "legit" i mean high end, difference makers who can play top 6 minutes. we have 2 of those. thats it.

i expect to have a FULL first line and a second line thats how you can compete.

really, right now, we have what ? 2 top 6 players on roster - questionable if either 20 and 93 are true "1st liners" at all. and a bunch of 3rd and 4th liners after that.

permission granted to return head to sand now

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

There is still a big difference in that regard between junior/college and the NHL. Its going to hurt in the NHL to go to the net when Miller is there. In College or in international hockey you can easily get 2 min for being a bit un-gentle when you defend the crease, that won't be the case in the NHL.

Miller is just that type, the elbows are sharp, the small slashes will be hard, those cross checks when he is just fending himself will be bruising. When he clears the puck around the boards, if you are close to the ice or watch carefully, its like damn what a velocity that puck had. When he dumps the puck in the janitor goes 'watch the glass'.

He is just a little stronger, harder, than the average guy in the elite hockey player category that he is in.

I don’t really disagree, but his physicality at the college level outside of a handful of occasions have pretty much been using his size/strength to box players out rather than throwing a hit. Just based on what I’ve seen from him, I don’t think he’s going to be the big punishing type of defenseman that I think some people want him to be, but he’ll definitely use his size/strength to lean on people

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

no dude. i said legit NHL forwards and by "legit" i mean high end, difference makers who can play top 6 minutes. we have 2 of those. thats it.

i expect to have a FULL first line and a second line thats how you can compete.

really, right now, we have what ? 2 top 6 players on roster - questionable if either 20 and 93 are true "1st liners" at all. and a bunch of 3rd and 4th liners after that.

permission granted to return head to sand now

Then say we don’t have top 6 players instead of “there’s 2 NHL players”

 

[UnSandvich]

no dude. i said legit NHL forwards and by "legit" i mean high end, difference makers who can play top 6 minutes. we have 2 of those. thats it.

i expect to have a FULL first line and a second line thats how you can compete.

really, right now, we have what ? 2 top 6 players on roster - questionable if either 20 and 93 are true "1st liners" at all. and a bunch of 3rd and 4th liners after that.

permission granted to return head to sand now

You sure you're the one who should be granting permission for burying one's head in the sand? Seems more like you should be asking for it

 

[Dijock94]

Then say we don’t have top 6 players instead of “there’s 2 NHL players”

Thank you.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Here’s that sick Turcotte goal from a few games ago. Shows a little bit of Boldy’s strength too as a puck carrier with some playmaking skills

As @Edge has said a few times, Turcotte is lower in the media rankings than people have him around here, but he’s probably got the most to gain from the combine out of any player in the draft. If he measures at closer to 6’0” and teams can get a better idea of his earlier injury and how that will impact him going forward, he’d have as solid of a foundation as anyone to go 3rd OA

 

[Mac n Gs]

As @Edge has said a few times, Turcotte is lower in the media rankings than people have him around here, but he’s probably got the most to gain from the combine out of any player in the draft. If he measures at closer to 6’0” and teams can get a better idea of his earlier injury and how that will impact him going forward, he’d have as solid of a foundation as anyone to go 3rd OA

I think a lot has to do with his earlier injuries and whether teams glance any sight of potential physical issues. The kid has all the tools to be a more physical version of Dylan Larkin. The gears in his skating are too-notch, and I really question if whoever likened him to Zucker has really watched him healthy this year. He can change directions really well and knows how to really attack teams on angles. His playmaking skill gets downplayed because of Hughes and Zegras’ sick passing abilities, but Turcotte to me is the one that is the more versatile goal scoring and playmaking threat. Add in the physical factor plus his ability to battle nonstop to win puck battles, and you see a kid with a strong first line ceiling.

My only concern remains to be the injury history, but if that all checks out for him, he’s probably solidified as a top-5 pick.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I think a lot has to do with his earlier injuries and whether teams glance any sight of potential physical issues. The kid has all the tools to be a more physical version of Dylan Larkin. The gears in his skating are too-notch, and I really question if whoever likened him to Zucker has really watched him healthy this year. He can change directions really well and knows how to really attack teams on angles. His playmaking skill gets downplayed because of Hughes and Zegras’ sick passing abilities, but Turcotte to me is the one that is the more versatile goal scoring and playmaking threat. Add in the physical factor plus his ability to battle nonstop to win puck battles, and you see a kid with a strong first line ceiling.

My only concern remains to be the injury history, but if that all checks out for him, he’s probably solidified as a top-5 pick.

That was me.

His vision is not great and it isn't just a Hughes/Zegras thing, it's compared to all of the top guys in the draft. He is much more of a straight line player who struggles with tunnel vision. Thats a massive, massive red flag for me, because players who have this almost break out of it. He doesn't do a good job using his skating to open up lanes to create opportunities for other players, usually his skating stands out when he's making something happen for himself (no, this is not a cue for someone to post a gif or video of him dangling some poor kid before setting up I think Boldy for a tap in, You can find something similar for almost any player.)

His shot is the best of the three you mentioned, but he doesn't shot a ton. His individual shot rates are pretty meh (so are Zegras', but hes more a playmaker than scorer anyway.)

To me, everything you mentioned as positives plus his limitations with offensive IQ scream Zucker. Zucker is a pretty good player in this league.

The durability is another red flag for me. Size shouldn't be a massive factor but when you play the way that he does, it should be taken into consideration.

 

[Edge]

Re: Turcotte, as @GeorgeKaplan said, he’s got as good of a shot as anyone to go third.

He’s one of the more electric prospects in the draft, and if he measures in closer to that 6’0, 200 pound mark, it will only help his cause.

With regards to the injury, and how it’s inpacted his ranking, I think it’s somewhat important to understand “why” it’s had the impact it has.

The one question mark regarding Turcotte has been durability. He tends to play a very involved game and there was some concern that he’d either have to adjust as the competition gets bigger and stronger, or he’d be a guy who runs the risk of breaking down.

So when Turcotte got injured earlier this season, this time more serious than in the past, it very much played into a lot of those concerns. Very few people question the talent. But there is a fear about passing on guys who are equally talented, or very close, who don’t necessarily come with those concerns.

Just wanted to give a little background and context because I don’t know if we’re really delved into the reasons behind Turcotte’s slip in the rankings.

 

[Ola]

As @Edge has said a few times, Turcotte is lower in the media rankings than people have him around here, but he’s probably got the most to gain from the combine out of any player in the draft. If he measures at closer to 6’0” and teams can get a better idea of his earlier injury and how that will impact him going forward, he’d have as solid of a foundation as anyone to go 3rd OA

There is no way NHL teams have him that low. I don't care what the ranking are saying, looking at last year the rankings were a joke. I don't know who makes those rankings, but look at the mess they caused last season when everyone thought Wahlstrom was a flawless player with the best shot in decades next to Laine and that we passed on him in favor of Kravtsov who was some suspect Russian with a tad of upside. In 2-3 years, it will be very hard if not impossible to find a hockey game played in which Alex Turcotte wouldn't be among the top 2-3 players on the ice when it came to carrying the puck. Look at the NHL game and what it is about today.

I think the ranking services has him as low as they do because he has been blocked by Hughes, the USNDP team is so deep no matter what, and he had the injury at the start.

I made this post on Turcotte on 3rd October 2018 stating that he basically was ready to take a shift in any league in the world at that point, as a 17 y/o, and betting on that he would be a strong future No 1 center come draft time.
Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19

Why? He just has tremendous quality. Sick wheels. I don't think the real pro's want to tip their hand and I think the rest to a large extent look at stats, McKenzie mid-season rankings that for some reasons aren't that good and put a finger in the air.

I know this sound so arrogant but its just my call. If its wrong, please don't hesitate to mock me as much as you want. Would probably be good for me. But I would be very very surprised if Turcotte went outside the top 6-7 and I have him a lot higher than that too. JMHO.

 

[Ola]

I have a work product draft for a top 31, will be totally limited to the players ranked and will omit a ton of guys not ranked since I haven't seen them (Newhook, Bobby Brick (sp) and co, Dorofeyev) and since I have seen them but just not been able to figure them out (especially depth guys on Team USA and Team Canada, you can only watch so many guys in a game at the same time and even if I now have managed to watch these teams multiple times it hasn't been enough to sort out all these guys). I just need to write my commentary before I post it.

But on Alex Turcotte since he is discussed now. He is a very good passer and play-maker, don't think he can shot, albeit he gets easy goals. But -- the kid is about carrying the puck and skating. And his skating and hockey sense spills over to his game without the puck.

He is as good as they come when carrying the puck. He is going to be top 2-3 in any game he plays in, in a few years, no matter what. You won't get McDavid, Crosby, Kane and co on the ice for the same game so that means that Turcotte will be top 2-3 at carrying the puck in any game he plays in.

I don't think Turcotte will become top 4-5 in the game in his peak. But I think he will become a steady top 15-25 player, that could peak up towards top 10. But from my POV, how valuable would it be for a team to have a guy that is like top 10-15 at carrying the puck in hockey on their team in light of how the games look right now? Its franchise altering, that speed and skill, its going to change the outlook of a team so much. Like Modano did with Dallas, maybe not quite at that level, but close to it. I am only passing that up for a guy who is even more dynamic than Turcotte with the puck and that is Jack Hughes. Turcotte is my No 2 in this draft.

Comparable player: Henrik Zetterberg

 

[Ola]

I don’t really disagree, but his physicality at the college level outside of a handful of occasions have pretty much been using his size/strength to box players out rather than throwing a hit. Just based on what I’ve seen from him, I don’t think he’s going to be the big punishing type of defenseman that I think some people want him to be, but he’ll definitely use his size/strength to lean on people

Yeah I definitely agree, he isn't Phaneuf like.

 

[Ola]

Edge- Interesting, I have not looked at it from that perspective.

But for me its a bit, a kid get one little news report about something and he is a total cancer. Another kid makes 1 or 2 mistakes and he is mistake prone. A third kid plays hockey and get one injury, and he is injury prone.

Is Broberg mistake prone? Eh what? Its hockey, everyone makes mistakes and he is 17 y/o. I've seen him quite much and I've seen NOTHING indicating that he is especially mistake prone. Still he got that label. How many injuries have Turcotte had? 1? What was it, some hip injury? Its not like he have had 5 concussions.

 

[Mac n Gs]

That was me.

His vision is not great and it isn't just a Hughes/Zegras thing, it's compared to all of the top guys in the draft. He is much more of a straight line player who struggles with tunnel vision. Thats a massive, massive red flag for me, because players who have this almost break out of it. He doesn't do a good job using his skating to open up lanes to create opportunities for other players, usually his skating stands out when he's making something happen for himself (no, this is not a cue for someone to post a gif or video of him dangling some poor kid before setting up I think Boldy for a tap in, You can find something similar for almost any player.)

His shot is the best of the three you mentioned, but he doesn't shot a ton. His individual shot rates are pretty meh (so are Zegras', but hes more a playmaker than scorer anyway.)

To me, everything you mentioned as positives plus his limitations with offensive IQ scream Zucker. Zucker is a pretty good player in this league.

The durability is another red flag for me. Size shouldn't be a massive factor but when you play the way that he does, it should be taken into consideration.

The only part I agree with is the durability issue. I don’t think it’s a tunnel vision issue as much as it’s a tendency to be a puck hog a bit, but I don’t blame him when he can skate with the puck the way he can. That’s the lart where I really question what you’re seeing with saying he doesn’t open up lanes with his skating. If anything, that’s where he excels the most because of how strong of a lower base he has and how he can make aggressive cuts to turn defenders around.

Frankly, I’m really confused as to how you make these conclusions about Turcotte, but end up rating someone like Krebs highly. The player you’re describing is much closer to Krebs than Turcotte.

 

[Ghost of jas]

The only part I agree with is the durability issue. I don’t think it’s a tunnel vision issue as much as it’s a tendency to be a puck hog a bit, but I don’t blame him when he can skate with the puck the way he can. That’s the lart where I really question what you’re seeing with saying he doesn’t open up lanes with his skating. If anything, that’s where he excels the most because of how strong of a lower base he has and how he can make aggressive cuts to turn defenders around.

Frankly, I’m really confused as to how you make these conclusions about Turcotte, but end up rating someone like Krebs highly. The player you’re describing is much closer to Krebs than Turcotte.

@Ola brought up an interesting name...Mike Modano. Is Turcotte’s skating on that level?

 

[True Blue]

I can't imagine this team picking in the top 10 after next year. They will be players in the UFA market either this summer, or certainly next summer. And some of the prospects will start having an impact either next season or the year after.

They are going to be much worse next year. They could be picking top 5

 

[True Blue]

Except Turcotte is better looking... he says very heterosexually.

Not that there's anything wrong with it.