Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19: Part V (Lottery 04/09 8PM EST)

[I Eat Crow]

I wouldnt be surprised if hes gone in the top 5.

Because we took him

 

[Edge]

Truth to be told, I wouldn’t care that much about what ‘others’ think. There are so much out there that only is based on some McKenzie ranking plus a finger in the air and some names moved around based on gut feelings. Just look back at last year, it’s a joke how off some stuff are. But that is only the start of it, then you go on and read what some actually are saying about a player. We covered the Wahlstrom stuff in the past, his skating. Nobody even brought it up, and quite many labeled him as a terrific skater and what not. This is not some dud in the 3rd round, he participated every time everywhere all season.

Get an eye on a kid and watch a full game, preferably against the best of his peers, it will get you so much further than reading most of these reports.

McKenzies rankings are of course genuine and of great quality, but for some reasons — we can only speculate — they are also ‘off’ by quite much if the mid season is compared to the June one and then the draft.

As for who we will pick, Clarke and co will take a kid they really like. Who thrives in spotlight, and who has the ability to be a special player. I think Lias over Mittlestad was all character. I also think they really will premier speed.

A lot will depend on who still is on the table. I think there is a quite steep drop off after 6-7, but I don’t have track of everyone.

I don’t care, so much as I think it helps to get a diverse perspective. Any place runs the risk of getting into a group think mentality, and so it’s important to acknowledge that there are other planets in the solar system so to speak — especially when it comes to getting too worked up one or the other about these kids.

As for McKenzie, I actually think TSN is usually a lot closer to the final draft result than anyone else.

 

[Edge]

Every time I see Turcotte, he reminds me of a young Robert Sean Leonard from Dead Poets Society:

 

[Winston2018]

Our Draft slot will be determined on April 9th?

 

[bl02]

Yeah, I don’t think Detroit let’s him go past them. Assuming the list is as it is. Kakko to LA. Turcotte to Detroit. vPod to NJ? Cozens to Buffalo?

It’s not good. Odds are that we are getting the 7th pick. The forwards could be gone by then.

Could Detroit have interest in Byram? Don’t think any of the other top teams are that keen on him. Or could NJ be interested? That would be great.

Dach is also good. I think Dach is better than Hayton. And that kid LA took with backproblems, lost his name.

Vilardi.

 

[bl02]

Our Draft slot will be determined on April 9th?

yup april 9th 3 days after the regular season ends. Espn says its gonna be around 8pm

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

It’d be great if Byram fell to us.

Turcotte has become so overrated across this site. Like not just here, everywhere. I’d love it if he went before we pick.

 

[Edge]

It’d be great if Byram fell to us.

Turcotte has become so overrated across this site. Like not just here, everywhere. I’d love it if he went before we pick.

Podkolzin has become that guy for me. The talent is tempting, but the question marks are substantial.

I’d prefer he go before we pick, to remove temptation, but also to ensure that one of Turcotte, Zegras, Cozens, Byram, or Dach is there.

I’d just as soon have him go third and then see who we have to choose from.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Podkolzin has become that guy for me. The talent is tempting, but the question marks are substantial.

I’d prefer he go before we pick, to remove temptation, but also to ensure that one of Turcotte, Zegras, Cozens, Byram, or Dach is there.

I’d just as soon have him go third and then see who we have to choose from.

I don’t think podkolzin is on our radar with that top pick, assuming the Rumors of him wanting to spend 4-5 seasons in Russia after this one are true.

Turcotte otoh I’m pretty confident is. We need to win the lottery so this becomes a non issue.

 

[Zibanejbread]

I don’t think podkolzin is on our radar with that top pick, assuming the Rumors of him wanting to spend 4-5 seasons in Russia after this one are true.

Turcotte otoh I’m pretty confident is. We need to win the lottery so this becomes a non issue.

We'll take him at #1 then.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Our Draft slot will be determined on April 9th?

Yup, our 1st will. The other 1sts spots will still be up in the air depending if those teams make it to the conference finals or further.

 

[Trxjw]

My only concern with all the US program kids is that they’re playing on the teenage equivalent of the 1980s Edmonton Oilers.

Don’t get me wrong, they’re all incredibly talented, and certainly should be in the mix for those 3-10 draft positions. But it’s also very easy to get caught up in the excitement and keep pushing those ceilings higher and higher.

It’s the same mindset when we start targeting players from one of the stacked offensive teams in the NHL. I can’t help but feel that we have to be a little careful with that — especially in a world of highlight clips and purposeful editing.

Because this is the time of year where it becomes a game of one-ups-manship when it comes to projecting these kids. And it happens every spring.

I can certainly appreciate that concern. It's always tough to judge a super-team and determine who the real catalysts are. That being said, I think the top guys are pretty definitively the top guys. At least I don't see a guy who is clearly ranked ahead of where he ought to be. Even a guy like Boldy, who I think is a little bit unremarkable, deserves a high ranking because he's shown that he can play with anyone. He can skate, create, and finish with elite players on his line. So even while I don't see him as a line driver in the NHL, he's a guy you can easily see fitting in on a top line and just producing year after year.

That "other than Hughes" group of Boldy, Zegras, Turcotte, and Caufield are all showing they're not just a product of an elite talent, which was the slight on just about all of them earlier in the year, but that they're high end talents themselves.

 

[Justin17]

Who are some late round players we should target? I don’t know much after the first two rounds.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

We'll take him at #1 then.

RIP Me.

 

[Edge]

I don’t think podkolzin is on our radar with that top pick, assuming the Rumors of him wanting to spend 4-5 seasons in Russia after this one are true.

Turcotte otoh I’m pretty confident is. We need to win the lottery so this becomes a non issue.

I have a hard time seeing Podkolzin being there either.

The only player I've heard anything about is Cozens, and I don't know how much they like him. If I was going to speculate, I'd say Cozens, Turcotte and Zegras are probably pretty high on their list.

 

[Edge]

I can certainly appreciate that concern. It's always tough to judge a super-team and determine who the real catalysts are. That being said, I think the top guys are pretty definitively the top guys. At least I don't see a guy who is clearly ranked ahead of where he ought to be. Even a guy like Boldy, who I think is a little bit unremarkable, deserves a high ranking because he's shown that he can play with anyone. He can skate, create, and finish with elite players on his line. So even while I don't see him as a line driver in the NHL, he's a guy you can easily see fitting in on a top line and just producing year after year.

That "other than Hughes" group of Boldy, Zegras, Turcotte, and Caufield are all showing they're not just a product of an elite talent, which was the slight on just about all of them earlier in the year, but that they're high end talents themselves.

I think there's a tendency to view things as black and white --- aka guys are either the real deal, or a product of their environment. (Not you, but in general). Frankly it's that area in the middle that I'm focused on.

I don't doubt the kids are good, the question is how good. That's a bit of the unknown for me, and in that territory is where they might fall along the high-end talent spectrum and who is more likely to land higher on said spectrum.

That will be the trick, figuring out if Turcotte or Zegras are better than guys like Cozens and Dach, or whether they benefit from that amazing support group. Ditto for other potential comparisons, Boldy vs. Krebs, Caufield vs. Kaliyev.

Personally, I have the members of those different groupings close, and don't doubt there's quality to be be had. It's just a matter of trying to find the highest quality.

 

[Fitzy]

Who are some late round players we should target? I don’t know much after the first two rounds.

Neithrt do most folks here, though I'd say after top level talent we need some depth prospects at the wing position big time.

 

[Trxjw]

Who are some late round players we should target? I don’t know much after the first two rounds.

Logan Barlage. He's not a late round pick, but he's outside the top-62 and likely to go somewhere in the 4th or 5th round. 6'4, 200lb C/RW playing behind Cozens in Lethbridge this year. He was pretty highly touted coming out of the Bantam draft where he was taken 4th overall, but he hasn't quite seemed to put it all together. You see some flashes of what he could be, a big, rangy winger with a quality shot and good vision, but the consistently isn't there. Now that he's grown into his frame more the skating has definitely improved, but he could still use some work on his agility as his feet are a bit heavy.

The Rangers were watching Lethbridge a few weeks ago, for Cozens I'm sure, but they definitely got to see him up close.

 

[Trxjw]

I think there's a tendency to view things as black and white --- aka guys are either the real deal, or a product of their environment. (Not you, but in general). Frankly it's that area in the middle that I'm focused on.

I don't doubt the kids are good, the question is how good. That's a bit of the unknown for me, and in that territory is where they might fall along the high-end talent spectrum and who is more likely to land higher on said spectrum.

That will be the trick, figuring out if Turcotte or Zegras are better than guys like Cozens and Dach, or whether they benefit from that amazing support group. Ditto for other potential comparisons, Boldy vs. Krebs, Caufield vs. Kaliyev.

Personally, I have the members of those different groupings close, and don't doubt there's quality to be be had. It's just a matter of trying to find the highest quality.

There's no doubt that the US squad is greater than the sum of it's parts, even though those parts are pretty damn good in isolation. All the record breaking that's been going on can definitely be somewhat attributed to the pure level of talent there right now.

For me the group of centers is very close. Dach out front of Zegras by a hair with Cozens tailing him just a bit and Turcotte right there behind Cozens. The separation is razor thin, in my opinion. As for that second group, I like the NTDP product better than their CHL counter-parts, but again, it's not a huge gap there either. In fact, I have groupings like that all over the top-40 or so. Even players in the same league, or as close as the same team and position, are all squeaking out the tiniest of leads between each other. All in all, I'm much more impressed with the projected top two rounds of this draft than I expected to be coming into the season. Risers are outnumbering the clear fallers for the most part.

 

[Joey Bones]

Would you be mad with Cajkovic with our 31st overall if tampa wins rather than risking waiting another 6 or 7 picks into the second round??? If he hits his potential kinda checks off some boxes we need. Right handed, good shot, winger. And hey we need a Slovakian prospect

It might be a reach at No. 31. Needs to be more physical on the forecheck. But I am very intrigued by his sheer scoring ability and quick rush mentality!!

 

[Joey Bones]

That stick flick at the end!!

 

[ecemleafs]

the more u read about this draft and see the stats of the top guys, it doesnt seem like anyone will be upset if they draft a top 10 guy. USNTDP team has a loaded class. finland has one of their greatest ever players. i like podkolzin as a top line winger in the future. then u have the CHL top players who u'd expect to be top 6 guys with potential for more.

 

[Joey Bones]

Who are some late round players we should target? I don’t know much after the first two rounds.

Plenty of names, but anything could happen later on. I think a name that would be intriguing is Wiljami Myllyla out of Finland. Could be one of those picks that benefit in a few years down the road....

 

[Joey Bones]

 

[Beacon]

How old is a D in the NHL normally when he is able to assume the role as a top pairing D? I don’t remember the exact details, but you can never really expect a D to assume that role before they are 24-25 y/o. Ds differs so much compared to forwards in that regard. McDavid can play at 18. Even Hedman needed 4 years. Many thought he was a bust or overrated in D+3. There are exceptions. There have been some guys lately, McAvoy. But they are so rare, you cannot count on someone being ready to mirror that.

My point is this, if we are planning on DRAFTING that 1st pair in the coming years — this will be a long rebuild.

This rebuilding will go on until at least 2021 because Hank, Staal, Shatty and Smith will not come off the cap until then. Nor will the 2018, 2019 and 2020 draftees be ready.

Gorts just made the Rangers significantly worse, losing Hayes and Zuccarello and replacing them with Lemieux and Vinni. The team that wasn't even close to the playoffs just lost of their best 4 skaters, their second and third highest scorers. Who replaces them? Kravtsov will be an instant first liner? Doubt it. Chytil and Howden average over .8 ppg per game? Would be shocked.

Even with Kreider, the Rangers will be the 3-5 worst team in the NHL next year. Maybe the worst. Without him, almost assuredly bottom-3.

The Rangers have been the second-worst NHL team since the TDL. If anything, it will have a worse roster in March 2020 than in March 2019 as we ship away Kreider, Vesey, Fast and Names in their last year before they hit the UFA.

The 2020-21 roster will still be stripped of all above average talent in their prime years (24-30) except Zibanejad. That's likely another top-5, maybe top-3 draft pick.

By then, the fans will be going crazy, with even the majority of today's supporters for a full, real rebuild. I assume the Rangers will use some of that cap space freed by the departure of Hank, Staal, Shatty and Smith on a star UFA or even two. If our 2019 first rounders are still developing in 2 years and will be rookies only in 2021-22, no problem at all.