Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19: Part V (Lottery 04/09 8PM EST)

[Matz03]

This rebuilding will go on until at least 2021 because Hank, Staal, Shatty and Smith will not come off the cap until then. Nor will the 2018, 2019 and 2020 draftees be ready.

Gorts just made the Rangers significantly worse, losing Hayes and Zuccarello and replacing them with Lemieux and Vinni. The team that wasn't even close to the playoffs just lost of their best 4 skaters, their second and third highest scorers. Who replaces them? Kravtsov will be an instant first liner? Doubt it. Chytil and Howden average over .8 ppg per game? Would be shocked.

Even with Kreider, the Rangers will be the 3-5 worst team in the NHL next year. Maybe the worst. Without him, almost assuredly bottom-3.

The Rangers have been the second-worst NHL team since the TDL. If anything, it will have a worse roster in March 2020 than in March 2019 as we ship away Kreider, Vesey, Fast and Names in their last year before they hit the UFA.

The 2020-21 roster will still be stripped of all above average talent in their prime years (24-30) except Zibanejad. That's likely another top-5, maybe top-3 draft pick.

By then, the fans will be going crazy, with even the majority of today's supporters for a full, real rebuild. I assume the Rangers will use some of that cap space freed by the departure of Hank, Staal, Shatty and Smith on a star UFA or even two. If our 2019 first rounders are still developing in 2 years and will be rookies only in 2021-22, no problem at all.

I would think that’s exactly the plan, pick around 5 or 6 this year. Pick top 2 next year (Byfield), maybe pick top 3-5 again after that. They drafted and acquired a bunch of D first since they take longer, and I think this was partly by design. With some luck we get a true franchise player in one of next three drafts while keep building around that. We also have some advantages with picking up college ufa, Kevin Hayes type ufa’s hopefully as soon as 2020. At some point we’ll use our assets to acquire young players being squeezed out of contenders or through camp dumps. I can’t image this will be a rebuild through only the draft you see from smaller market teams.

 

[Edge]

There's no doubt that the US squad is greater than the sum of it's parts, even though those parts are pretty damn good in isolation. All the record breaking that's been going on can definitely be somewhat attributed to the pure level of talent there right now.

For me the group of centers is very close. Dach out front of Zegras by a hair with Cozens tailing him just a bit and Turcotte right there behind Cozens. The separation is razor thin, in my opinion. As for that second group, I like the NTDP product better than their CHL counter-parts, but again, it's not a huge gap there either. In fact, I have groupings like that all over the top-40 or so. Even players in the same league, or as close as the same team and position, are all squeaking out the tiniest of leads between each other. All in all, I'm much more impressed with the projected top two rounds of this draft than I expected to be coming into the season. Risers are outnumbering the clear fallers for the most part.

I would be most happy with one of Byram, Turcotte, Zegras or Cozens.

I’ve always really liked the first round of this draft, particularly the top 10. I’m a little less in love with the latter first and second, especially compared to last year.

 

[broadwayblue]

I would think that’s exactly the plan, pick around 5 or 6 this year. Pick top 2 next year (Byfield), maybe pick top 3-5 again after that. They drafted and acquired a bunch of D first since they take longer, and I think this was partly by design. With some luck we get a true franchise player in one of next three drafts while keep building around that. We also have some advantages with picking up college ufa, Kevin Hayes type ufa’s hopefully as soon as 2020. At some point we’ll use our assets to acquire young players being squeezed out of contenders or through camp dumps. I can’t image this will be a rebuild through only the draft you see from smaller market teams.

I can't imagine this team picking in the top 10 after next year. They will be players in the UFA market either this summer, or certainly next summer. And some of the prospects will start having an impact either next season or the year after.

 

[broadwayblue]

I would be most happy with one of Byram, Turcotte, Zegras or Cozens.

I’ve always really liked the first round of this draft, particularly the top 10. I’m a little less in love with the latter first and second, especially compared to last year.

It would seem at least one, perhaps two of those 4 will be on the board if we're picking at 6 or 7, no? Whether we actually select one of them is an entirely different story.

 

[Beacon]

I can't imagine this team picking in the top 10 after next year. They will be players in the UFA market either this summer, or certainly next summer. And some of the prospects will start having an impact either next season or the year after.

Players hit their prime at 24-26 years of age, 6-8 years after the draft. Even partial results take 2-3 years unless we luck into getting a superstar. Look at Chytil and Lias. Yes, they are in the NHL, but they are crap players for now. I have a lot of hope for Chytil in his prime, but that is years away. That's likely to happen to Kravtsov next season - even if he makes it, we are probably talking about a kid making rookie mistakes while contributing only 20-25 points (next year, not talking about his prime).

Maybe Chytil breaks out next year or the following year. Does that replace Kreider? We'd be extremely lucky if a 20/21 year old Chytil became as good as prime Kreider. But even if that happens, who replaces MZA and Hayes next year or the following year?

We simply wont be any good for another couple of seasons even if prospects mildly exceed expectations, unless several vastly exceed current expectations.

 

[offdacrossbar]

Players hit their prime at 24-26 years of age, 6-8 years after the draft. Even partial results take 2-3 years unless we luck into getting a superstar. Look at Chytil and Lias. Yes, they are in the NHL, but they are crap players for now. I have a lot of hope for Chytil in his prime, but that is years away. That's likely to happen to Kravtsov next season - even if he makes it, we are probably talking about a kid making rookie mistakes while contributing only 20-25 points (next year, not talking about his prime).

Maybe Chytil breaks out next year or the following year. Does that replace Kreider? We'd be extremely lucky if a 20/21 year old Chytil became as good as prime Kreider. But even if that happens, who replaces MZA and Hayes next year or the following year?

We simply wont be any good for another couple of seasons even if prospects mildly exceed expectations, unless several vastly exceed current expectations.

yup

the darkness is descending.

years of poor drafting and bad FA signings is coming home to roost.

all this drafting of these kids this year won't address the fundamental problems. were are closer to buffalo, ott and edmonton than we are the isles, the habs and the canes.

our current roster has 2 legit nhl forwards and not one 1st pair dman and there is zero help on the way anytime soon to address that.

draft away. good luck. that help is 3 yrs away before it has any impact. until then, its pretty barren looking at the current roster.

 

[Matz03]

I can't imagine this team picking in the top 10 after next year. They will be players in the UFA market either this summer, or certainly next summer. And some of the prospects will start having an impact either next season or the year after.

I definitely can, you have the right to think they’ll add big ufa’s and dramatically improve over this season but I certainly don’t. They lost Zucc, Hayes, possibly will move Kreider. Hanks play will continue to deteriorate. Prospects won’t be anywhere near where you think they’ll be at next year or the year after. This is a rebuild.

 

[Lays]

We’re finally at the 5th spot btw, tied with Buffalo in points but they’re at 6th. Hopefully they get their shit together and decide they want to finish strong

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

We’re finally at the 5th spot btw, tied with Buffalo in points but they’re at 6th. Hopefully they get their **** together and decide they want to finish strong

Fat chance.

My hope is that they’re so awful it causes them to bail in Eichel.

I could see it. In a Joe Thornton esque fashion.

 

[Barnaby]

Every time I see Turcotte, he reminds me of a young Robert Sean Leonard from Dead Poets Society:

View attachment 205409View attachment 205411

Except Turcotte is better looking... he says very heterosexually.

 

[Ghost of jas]

There’s a part of the Rangers’ descent in the standings that I find amusing, and it’s the reaction of some posters. For a while, after a Ranger win, you’d see ‘can’t wait to pick 15th.’ As they would settle into a better draft position, it was ‘expect to draft three spots liser’. And as they’ve reached 5OA, it’s still going to be worst case scenario for some people. And yet some of us had them in the top 5 all along. It’s just taken a slow-moving train wreck to get there. And, I’m not ruling out them being passed by NJ (likely) and Detroit (possibly).

 

[Edge]

There’s a part of the Rangers’ descent in the standings that I find amusing, and it’s the reaction of some posters. For a while, after a Ranger win, you’d see ‘can’t wait to pick 15th.’ As they would settle into a better draft position, it was ‘expect to draft three spots liser’. And as they’ve reached 5OA, it’s still going to be worst case scenario for some people. And yet some of us had them in the top 5 all along. It’s just taken a slow-moving train wreck to get there. And, I’m ruling out them being passed by NJ (likely) and Detroit (possibly).

I agree. Sometimes I do chuckle because you can almost draw a map of how it’s going to play out.

I remember about a month back thinking we were about due for a “all the best players will be gone by the pick just before the Rangers” post. Sure enough, boom there they were.

Before the season, it was said this team would likely finish 4-6 in the draft (pre-lottery). Split the difference and it was said we’d pick fifth. Well, that’s where we are.

 

[Ghost of jas]

I agree. Sometimes I do chuckle because you can almost draw a map of how it’s going to play out.

I remember about a month back thinking we were about due for a “all the best players will be gone by the pick just before the Rangers” post. Sure enough, boom there they were.

Before the season, it was said this team would likely finish 4-6 in the draft (pre-lottery). Split the difference and it was said we’d pick fifth. Well, that’s where we are.

Yup. I had them bottom five with a strong possibility of being in the top three, which is still a possibility. Frankly, I’m expecting NJ to pass them,

 

[Edge]

Just realized that Byram has the same birthday as McD.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Just realized that Byram has the same birthday as McD.

Always interesting

 

[ThirdEye]

yup

the darkness is descending.

years of poor drafting and bad FA signings is coming home to roost.

all this drafting of these kids this year won't address the fundamental problems. were are closer to buffalo, ott and edmonton than we are the isles, the habs and the canes.

our current roster has 2 legit nhl forwards and not one 1st pair dman and there is zero help on the way anytime soon to address that.

draft away. good luck. that help is 3 yrs away before it has any impact. until then, its pretty barren looking at the current roster.

Two legit NHL forwards? Think that's a bit of an exaggeration, no?

Our D core is suspect but ADA looks extremely promising and could certainly become a first pairing defenseman if he continues to improve. I still think there's a decent chance of him regressing, but he's on the right path. Extrapolate his stats over a full season and he's at 50-60 points... There ain't a lot of D in this league putting up those type of numbers

As shitty as our D is now we have a lot of help waiting in the wings.

Also, if we end up with a top 3- p4 pickit isn't going to take 3 years for that pick to make a difference unless they totally botch it.

 

[Bluenote13]

Just realized that Byram has the same birthday as McD.

Come on, I've been making this 'note for awhile now.

And Kakko is a 13 too, February 13th, my grandpa's birthday !

 

[Blue Blooded]

Two legit NHL forwards? Think that's a bit of an exaggeration, no?

Our D core is suspect but ADA looks extremely promising and could certainly become a first pairing defenseman if he continues to improve. I still think there's a decent chance of him regressing, but he's on the right path. Extrapolate his stats over a full season and he's at 50-60 points... There ain't a lot of D in this league putting up those type of numbers

As ****ty as our D is now we have a lot of help waiting in the wings.

Also, if we end up with a top 3- p4 pickit isn't going to take 3 years for that pick to make a difference unless they totally botch it.

43 point pace for the full season (29 in 56), 53 point pace since the new year (20 in 31) and 62 point pace over the past 20 games (15 in 20).

 

[egelband]

I guess lindgren has been forgotten lol. I still think if he can progress it would be nice to have two guys with size, physicality and good skating like miller and lindgren.

Miller is physical? I'm not doubting it. But I get the sense he's more of a finesse guy.

 

[Lays]

43 point pace for the full season (29 in 56), 53 point pace since the new year (20 in 31) and 62 point pace over the past 20 games (15 in 20).

Can’t wait to see what he does with better a better team

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Can’t wait to see what he does with better a better team

Or with consistent ice time.

He should spend the entire summer working on his shot and nothing else though.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Miller is physical? I'm not doubting it. But I get the sense he's more of a finesse guy.

He is every now and then, but it’s pretty few and far between. You’re right though, he is more of a finesse defender

 

[Dijock94]

Two legit NHL forwards? Think that's a bit of an exaggeration, no?

Our D core is suspect but ADA looks extremely promising and could certainly become a first pairing defenseman if he continues to improve. I still think there's a decent chance of him regressing, but he's on the right path. Extrapolate his stats over a full season and he's at 50-60 points... There ain't a lot of D in this league putting up those type of numbers

As ****ty as our D is now we have a lot of help waiting in the wings.

Also, if we end up with a top 3- p4 pickit isn't going to take 3 years for that pick to make a difference unless they totally botch it.

Agreed 2 is a severe exaggeration

Zibby
Kreids
Buch
Strome
Names
Fast
Vesey

All NHL guys, were just completely empty on elite talent.

Also Skjei and ADA are top 4 defenseman. With Miller/Lundqvist/Hajek/Rykov all with the potential to also be top 4 talents.

We need to find elite talent on both ends of the rink now. And these next two years are our best chances at doing so. While also having the extra first round picks to fill in more potential depth behind them. We really need to hit on our firsts these next two years. It’s pretty much critical to this rebuild that we not miss.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Or with consistent ice time.

He should spend the entire summer working on his shot and nothing else though.

And watch tapes on how Erik Karlsson plays defence.

 

[Ola]

I think its a term thrown away way to easily, but the top of the 2020 draft should be really good in the top 5 at least. I have no idea who the top US kids are for that draft, but the above said will especially be true if they can contribute with a few kids for the top 5-10. Lafreniére might not be the next Crosby/McDavid, but he is at least Tavares level. Special kid that will become a special NHLer. Raymond and Holtz are so dynamic. Raymond is Pat Kane like. Holtz so good too. Like they are not only great talents, they are to the T what works in the game today. So much will happen and you can't even remotely try to map some kind of top 5-10 at this point. But those three are there already in the top 5-6 discussion at least, no doubt. The changes won't be to the negative, many others are on the verge.

Gorton should stay the course, get another high pick next season. Then I think its time to start getting more support for the kids, think the negative effects of sucking will be too high if we are down there much longer. It will take time no matter what and be a roller coaster ride after it, we could definitely still get high picks.