Do you believe in Dubas?

[ShaneFalco]

The reasons why a team loses are meaningless?

Hey we lost in the first round again but we had great stats!! A few of you need to tone down the constant need to prop this team up with expected goals/wins/we're elite/we lost but we're still great/Dubas can do now wrong/16 isn't paid to score etc etc etc etc

 

[geo25]

As long as Dubas continues to make moves with a future focused mindset, I will likely support him. His loyalty to the core 4 is not a blind/limitless loyalty. It will just the last shoe to drop (moving a core player).

I think he's made plenty of mistakes in his tenure. I think Mitch and Auston should have had 8 year deals at those AAV's. Something that will likely become a huge issue in 2 years time. I didn't like his expansion protection strategy. Those are 2 scenarios that instantly come to mind where I was unhappy with the move right at inception.

But there have also been moves that he made that in hindsight have not worked out and we were forced to abort or change direction. These moves were met with optimism when they were made, but in time soured for one reason or another.

What I appreciate the most about Kyle is his ability to cut his losses.

Tyson Barrie was clearly not the right fit, he let him walk. Only to sign Brodie, who has been outstanding.

Foligno trade. Paid big bucks for a guy who should have helped us in the post season last year. His age and health became a huge issue. So many GM's would have doubled down on that, and lost once over. As bad as Ritchie has been this year, he's still been 10x better than what Foligno has been able to offer for Boston, at almost half the cost.

Letting Hyman walk is a decision that hurts in the immediate, but long term will be the right decision most likely. 8 years for a player who plays exactly like the aforementioned Foligno in his prime was always going to be a deal that matures poorly. Letting him walk was a decision that best suited the GM of our club 4 years from now, yet Kyle was not guaranteed to even be around beyond this current season. It was a decision to protect our club's future, when Kyle was only guaranteed the present. To me, I respect that.

I think that's where I have trust in Kyle's judgment of our core 4. He's shown in many ways that he is not afraid to make a move, and also make moves that contradict his prior beliefs. There will come a time when his belief in the core may waiver, at that point I trust he will make that decision.

No GM is going to be 100% on their transaction history. It's about finding ways to adapt. A lot of that adaptability comes from being humble enough to move on from your own failures. Something that is not overly common in traditional "old boys club" managing IMO.

Some astute observations that I agree with. These coming playoff results and how he responds will be interesting.

 

[Michael HOMERUNing]

Very well put! I feel the same way, I like almost most of the moves he's made and am completely baffled that we keep losing in the playoffs. So every year I like our team going in and every year we lose. So If I'm happy with Dubas when the playoffs start, I can hardly call him an idiot 2 weeks later now can I? If we keep losing then of course in the end he takes the responsibility but still, it's hard to complain when I like most of what he's done right up until we lose the deciding game.

His mistakes IMO:

1 - Marner's contract
2 - Not extending Campbell this summer
3 - Trading a 1st for Foligno

He's also done many good things though and I'm always a big picture kind of guy so while I'm definitely pissed at some of the mistakes, I have to give him a pretty good grade overall. I really hope this team plays up to it's potential for a change in these playoffs a change, would be awesome for the narratives to change in a positive direction!

His mistakes IMO:

1. Giving Matthews a 5 year deal, allowing him to potentially walk to free agency at 26

2. Overpaying Marner by 2 million

3. Signing Nylander at the last possible moment, essentially wasting a year of his career

4. Trading a 1st for Foligno

5. Trading the most valuable asset he had for Tyson Barrie, the complete opposite kind of defenseman we needed

6. Exposing McCann to ED after making a brilliant trade to acquire him, only to protect Justin Holl

It’s too early to call not re-signing Campbell a mistake especially since we don’t really know what we have in Mrazek

 

[Twine Tickler]

Some astute observations that I agree with. These coming playoff results and how he responds will be interesting.

Yup.

I think that is kind of what we are all waiting on. We know this team is good. We know the roster construction is good. But are they mentally strong enough to win when it matters the most? I f***ing pray to god they are lol

They've been regular season giants before, it really means nothing unless they can do it in the post season. But developing those championship level habits in November is hugely important. Aside from that 4 game stretch early on, this group has come back this season and has done everything that was expected of them. They are playing the right way, and they are getting the results they deserve. We are defending leads better than ever before. I'm sure we will have one of our vintage Leaf blown leads here at some point. But in all honesty, this team has played with the lead better than any Leaf team in the last 20 years. They've show almost no signs of nervousness with the lead. That is a championship habit that translates to playoff success more often than not. Just got to keep it up, and most importantly do it when it matters the most

 

[zeke]

That should Matthews choose not to resign after his current contract, then the "window" may not be the 10 years you had suggested.

Is it at all likely that a star player will leave one of the best teams in the league, or that the team will choose not to pay him?

 

[zeke]

Hey we lost in the first round again but we had great stats!! A few of you need to tone down the constant need to prop this team up with expected goals/wins/we're elite/we lost but we're still great/Dubas can do now wrong/16 isn't paid to score etc etc etc etc

we didn't have great stats, though.

we couldn't score.

 

[egd27]

Is it at all likely that a star player will leave one of the best teams in the league, or that the team will choose not to pay him?

The above would have been a more appropriate response to:

Our current window is the length of Auston Matthews' contract. If he re-signs, that could open a new window.

than your actual response:

Keep hoping that he'll leave.

 

[kevsh]

6. Exposing McCann to ED after making a brilliant trade to acquire him, only to protect Justin Holl

I get this, but right now the Leafs have three top-4 defencemen and 4 bottom-pairing defencemen. Which, to me at least, means their blue line is not Stanley Cup-winning caliber. If Sandin can work the mental mistakes (mostly brutal turnovers and ill-advised rushes) out of his game, Holl doesn't fade late in the season, I'll be more optimistic.

Even if you think they're a bit better than my take, if Holl was exposed and selected by Seattle, the Leafs (injury-free) blue line for now is:

Reilly-Brodie
Muzzin-Dermott
Sandin-Liljegren

Two years from now, if Sandin and Liljegren keep progressing, Dermott likely is moved and another veteran is thrown in there, I see a solid, consistent blue line that can help carry this team deep. But this season - another critical one for this team - as unimpressive as Holl has been so far I think if they lost him Keefe would have very little wiggle room, esp. if, as almost a certainty, any of those six misses significant time due to injury.

 

[Notsince67]

I think most posters will at least agree to Marner being overpaid by a couple million, Ritchie signing was questionable (I've warmed up to a little, but still seems like a bad signing), I am sure there are more that are universally agreed on as bad moves, but those are the two off the top of my head, where I am sure even his strongest supporters can agree he didn't make the best calls.

Most of the criticism is with hindsight involved, which is never fair.

Sparks
Foligno (slight overpay in my opinion, but it was also market value at the time)
Marleau
Mrazek
Zaitsev
Brown
Kapenan
Johnsson
etc...

All were not his fault (cleaning up the mess left to him) or just look bad in hindsight but were likely the right move with the given knowledge

Overpaid...probably. by $2mm? not even close

 

[Twine Tickler]

Is it at all likely that a star player will leave one of the best teams in the league, or that the team will choose not to pay him?

I think it is a touch naïve to think Auston is a shoe in to resign in Toronto after his current deal is up. Auston is arguably the most marketable player in the league. Certainly every US team that can afford him will be lining up for his services, and the ones that currently are unable, will find a way to become able. Just as we did for JT.

Whether its legal or not, there will be tampering occurring prior to his expiry of his current deal. He will conveniently catch wind from another player around the league that their team is looking to free up money to bring him onto their team in 2024, and Auston will have every right to hold out to UFA to explore options elsewhere. Toronto is obviously still an option, but I think we'd be foolish to think it's the only option. He signed his current deal for a reason. Either to Leverage TOR for more money, or to explore options elsewhere. Really no other reason why he would sign a 5 year deal.

If I were management, I'd have Auston's very favorable 8 year contract extension on the table next to a Jersey with a "C" on it in the summer of 2023.

I wouldn't bother negotiating, I'd go in with a strong offer right away. If he shows any signs of playing hardball, I'd move him for a kings ransom. If we lose the greatest Leaf of all time to free agency for absolutely nothing, it would be the biggest mistake in franchise history. Which given our history of bullshit, is saying something

 

[ACC1224]

I think it is a touch naïve to think Auston is a shoe in to resign in Toronto after his current deal is up. Auston is arguably the most marketable player in the league. Certainly every US team that can afford him will be lining up for his services, and the ones that currently are unable, will find a way to become able. Just as we did for JT.

Whether its legal or not, there will be tampering occurring prior to his expiry of his current deal. He will conveniently catch wind from another player around the league that their team is looking to free up money to bring him onto their team in 2024, and Auston will have every right to hold out to UFA to explore options elsewhere. Toronto is obviously still an option, but I think we'd be foolish to think it's the only option. He signed his current deal for a reason. Either to Leverage TOR for more money, or to explore options elsewhere. Really no other reason why he would sign a 5 year deal.

If I were management, I'd have Auston's very favorable 8 year contract extension on the table next to a Jersey with a "C" on it in the summer of 2023.

I wouldn't bother negotiating, I'd go in with a strong offer right away. If he shows any signs of playing hardball, I'd move him for a kings ransom. If we lose the greatest Leaf of all time to free agency for absolutely nothing, it would be the biggest mistake in franchise history. Which given our history of bullshit, is saying something

What if he refuses to waive his NMC?

 

[zeke]

The above would have been a more appropriate response to:


than your actual response:

My actual response was on the money, tho.

You guys are pretending that an unlikely thing is likely, in order to make the Leafs' situation look worse.

 

[zeke]

I get this, but right now the Leafs have three top-4 defencemen and 4 bottom-pairing defencemen. Which, to me at least, means their blue line is not Stanley Cup-winning caliber. If Sandin can work the mental mistakes (mostly brutal turnovers and ill-advised rushes) out of his game, Holl doesn't fade late in the season, I'll be more optimistic.

Even if you think they're a bit better than my take, if Holl was exposed and selected by Seattle, the Leafs (injury-free) blue line for now is:

Reilly-Brodie
Muzzin-Dermott
Sandin-Liljegren

Two years from now, if Sandin and Liljegren keep progressing, Dermott likely is moved and another veteran is thrown in there, I see a solid, consistent blue line that can help carry this team deep. But this season - another critical one for this team - as unimpressive as Holl has been so far I think if they lost him Keefe would have very little wiggle room, esp. if, as almost a certainty, any of those six misses significant time due to injury.

The Leafs are the 3rd ranked defense this year and 6th ranked the past 2yrs.

They have 3 top-pair caliber dmen and probably 6 top-4 caliber dmen, though only Holl has proven that while Sandin-Lilly still need to.

 

[zeke]

I think it is a touch naïve to think Auston is a shoe in to resign in Toronto after his current deal is up.

If you could give one example of a franchise player leaving a big market top tier team as UFA that would help convince me.

 

[Apex Predator]

If you could give one example of a franchise player leaving a big market top tier team as UFA that would help convince me.

Johnny Damon

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Hey we lost in the first round again but we had great stats!! A few of you need to tone down the constant need to prop this team up with expected goals/wins/we're elite/we lost but we're still great/Dubas can do now wrong/16 isn't paid to score etc etc etc etc

Pot.....kettle?

 

[Buds17]

What if he refuses to waive his NMC?

I don't even think the NMC is much of a concern. I'd be more worried about how things are going and where things are headed if the team is even entertaining the thought of trading him away at that point.

 

[Twine Tickler]

What if he refuses to waive his NMC?

yup that could happen for sure. I suspect it won't though.

I'm sure the NMC is not there for Auston to spend the entire 2023-24 season fielding question regarding his pending UFA status only to inevitably f*** us over come July 1, 2024. It was likely put there so that Auston could control where he wanted to end up in the event of him not wanting to stay in TOR. Wherein, I feel like Auston will know its not worth him playing in Toronto in 2023-24 and being constantly harassed about what he is inevitably about to do, which would be him leaving in UFA, and he has a NMC to protect himself from going to potentially another market where he has no plans of resigning only to field that exact same questions he would in TOR. I am assuming that if the Leafs are unable to sign Auston in the summer of 2023, they will work together to find Auston a destination where he wants to play long term. Which I assume would be a handful of US markets.

Will this affect his trade value at that time? ya for sure. But if he give 5 cities where he'd accept a trade to, I can absolutely guarantee you that all of those 5 teams would move anything to accommodate that transaction. He is a generational player. They just don't become available that often.

But to your original point, he absolutely could f*** us over. I just see no gain for him doing that TBH

 

[ACC1224]

yup that could happen for sure. I suspect it won't though.

I'm sure the NMC is not there for Auston to spend the entire 2023-24 season fielding question regarding his pending UFA status only to inevitably f*** us over come July 1, 2024. It was likely put there so that Auston could control where he wanted to end up in the event of him not wanting to stay in TOR. Wherein, I feel like Auston will know its not worth him playing in Toronto in 2023-24 and being constantly harassed about what he is inevitably about to do, which would be him leaving in UFA, and he has a NMC to protect himself from going to potentially another market where he has no plans of resigning only to field that exact same questions he would in TOR. I am assuming that if the Leafs are unable to sign Auston in the summer of 2023, they will work together to find Auston a destination where he wants to play long term. Which I assume would be a handful of US markets.

Will this effect his trade value at that time? ya for sure. But if he give 5 cities where he'd accept a trade to, I can absolutely guarantee you that all of those 5 teams would move anything to accommodate that transaction. He is a generational player. They just don't become available that often.

But to your original pint, he absolutely could f*** us over. I just see no gain for him doing that TBH

If he has a specific city he's looking to walk to as a UFA that will severely affect any possible return, IMO.

 

[Twine Tickler]

If you could give one example of a franchise player leaving a big market top tier team as UFA that would help convince me.

you can't be serious right?

 

[ACC1224]

you can't be serious right?

The whole thing is stupid. When has a player of Matthews age and stature had the opportunity to walk?

 

[4thline]

If he has a specific city he's looking to walk to as a UFA that will severely affect any possible return, IMO.

Only if said team can't fit him a year early. At that point we're trading one year of Matthews, not Matthews' next long term contract. Value will still be biggish, and the absence of a bidding war shouldn't hurt it that much. We'll still be in a position to make use of that year, so they'll either pay for it or we keep him.

 

[4thline]

The whole thing is stupid. When has a player of Matthews age and stature had the opportunity to walk?

Crosby/Malkin/Stamkos/Toews/Kane

 

[francis246]

His mistakes IMO:

1. Giving Matthews a 5 year deal, allowing him to potentially walk to free agency at 26

2. Overpaying Marner by 2 million

3. Signing Nylander at the last possible moment, essentially wasting a year of his career

4. Trading a 1st for Foligno

5. Trading the most valuable asset he had for Tyson Barrie, the complete opposite kind of defenseman we needed

6. Exposing McCann to ED after making a brilliant trade to acquire him, only to protect Justin Holl

It’s too early to call not re-signing Campbell a mistake especially since we don’t really know what we have in Mrazek

Idk if any GM would have signed Campbell, he was unproven at that point and could barely finish the season uninjured. You can’t really blame management for that.

 

[ACC1224]

Crosby/Malkin/Stamkos/Toews/Kane

They were all UFA's at 25?
Other than Stamkos I don't recall any of the others becoming UFA's but I may have forgotton.