Do you believe in Dubas?

[francis246]

Hey Zeke I’m not trying to be difficult and I don’t mean to be rude. This is a message board and sometimes things come across in a different tone than meant.

What does this stat have anything to do with? The reason the leafs lost was because they chocked the series away against them. We are comparing a playoff series where they only played one team compared to multiple teams. If you can explain this stat and why it means anything to me I’m all ears.

I’ll say it again I’ll be rude, king of posting stats with zero context

 

[81Leafs50]

Leafs are 2pts out first place. They domintaed the Canadian division and everyone said it was cause the division was weak.

WELL .... Leafs are dominating the American teams too.

I believe in Dubas. the players need to play and play well.

 

[Buds17]

I mean with all due respect, Missing the playoffs in your final year and getting bounced in the first round potentially 7 straight seasons seems about the same to me.

If there is no significant steps forward in the next 2 seasons, there is no chance IMO that Auston will want more of that

I completely agree and that's totally understandable. The team would also have to ask itself some tough questions if things can't progress further with these players.

 

[Twine Tickler]

The only factors that are really within Leaf control are being able to offer a competitive team and salary. We'll see what happens.

Yup, and if Auston shows no cooperation in getting an extension done after a very strong offer has been tabled, you have to consider that as a sign that he will not ever resign. It will be up to management at that time to have the honest and direct conversation with Auston to find a solution that suits his needs, all while extracting the most value out of his remaining year under contract. Because ultimately he holds the all of the power.

It's really that simple. Kyle left a vulnerability there, and to me it was his greatest mistake (potentially).

At the end of the day, I am not refuting the possibility of Auston resigning in TOR. There is a decent chance of that as well. I'd put that chance below 20% if they cannot make it to the ECF in the next 2 seasons though.

At the end of the day, Auston holds all of the power. Not sure any GM would want any player to hold that level of power.

 

[zeke]

If we get bounced in the first round for the next 2 playoffs, it would mean 7 straight first round exits. Entirely possible in our division.

To me, that is "terrifically awful" results that would warrant a player wanting a better situation.

I don't think I am reaching on that.

He's going to be on one of the best teams in the league the next 3yrs, and one that will continue to be one of the best when he re-signs for years after, in the biggest hockey market in the world.

It's simply not a situation he would leave unless something extremely unlikely happens.

But that's...extremely unlikely.

 

[Notsince67]

If you could give one example of a franchise player leaving a big market top tier team as UFA that would help convince me.

Marion Hossa?
Not a big market team but top tier for sure

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Bigger mistake was not signing Marner first.

Marner refused to negotiate in season. Are you advocating for walking Matthews to FA?

 

[Buds17]

Yup, and if Auston shows no cooperation in getting an extension done after a very strong offer has been tabled, you have to consider that as a sign that he will not ever resign. It will be up to management at that time to have the honest and direct conversation with Auston to find a solution that suits his needs, all while extracting the most value out of his remaining year under contract. Because ultimately he holds the all of the power.

It's really that simple. Kyle left a vulnerability there, and to me it was his greatest mistake (potentially).

At the end of the day, I am not refuting the possibility of Auston resigning in TOR. There is a decent chance of that as well. I'd put that chance below 20% if they cannot make it to the ECF in the next 2 seasons though.

At the end of the day, Auston holds all of the power. Not sure any GM would want any player to hold that level of power.

It's a tough situation. Pending UFA Auston Matthews still helps the Leafs compete more than any trade package immediately would. Conversely, his contract status would be one in a list of many problems for a non-competitive Leaf team. Here's to obviously hoping that the team will be of quality and he'll appreciate that and re-up when the time comes.

 

[ACC1224]

Marner refused to negotiate in season. Are you advocating for walking Matthews to FA?

He made an offer before the season began, Dubas declined.

 

[Twine Tickler]

He's going to be on one of the best teams in the league the next 3yrs, and one that will continue to be one of the best when he re-signs for years after, in the biggest hockey market in the world.

It's simply not a situation he would leave unless something extremely unlikely happens.

But that's...extremely unlikely.

Trust me man, I really do hope you are right. But if you want to deny the vulnerability we presently are faced with when it comes to the Auston Matthews 2023 offseason extension I just think that is completely naïve.

When the player holds all of the power, which he does, the team hardly ever wins.

Auston is not going to go to the negotiating table and reminisce about all of the regular season team success and personal success he's had over his prior 8 seasons. He's going to think about that dumb f*** Steve Simmons, who probably can't even skate, asking him why he hasn't been able to elevate his game in the post season the prior 8 years.

A lot of players don't like playing in the biggest hockey market in the world. Auston could go to a big Market like LA and be a fart in the breeze. Collect the same, if not more money in external revenue, and live in the OC. Sounds like a no f***ing brainer to me. There is a huge difference between big market, and big hockey market. Let's not confuse the 2

Remember, Auston never had a choice to come to Toronto. He was drafted by us, and resigned when we still owned his rights. The only indication we have seen from Auston was that he signed a deal that walks him directly to UFA. So I'm not sure why you're so confident he'd want to stay with this team regardless of results.

Toronto is only a fun market when the team is successful.

 

[Twine Tickler]

It's a tough situation. Pending UFA Auston Matthews still helps the Leafs compete more than any trade package immediately would. Conversely, his contract status would be one in a list of many problems for a non-competitive Leaf team. Here's obviously hoping that the team will be of quality and he'll appreciate that and re-up when the time comes.

Yup. One can hope. Ultimately we should be a very viable option for him resigning. We will have a very good team. But it really does come down to having some post season success. I have my fingers and toes crossed.

 

[Dekes For Days]

He made an offer before the season began, Dubas declined.

You have no idea what offers existed before the season began, or whether Marner was willing to sign then at all. Not to mention the complications a Marner signing could have created for the Nylander negotiation.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Remember, Auston never had a choice to come to Toronto. He was drafted by us, and resigned when we still owned his rights. The only indication we have seen from Auston was that he signed a deal that walks him directly to UFA. So I'm not sure why you're so confident he'd want to stay with this team regardless of results.

The deal didn't walk him directly to UFA, it bought a UFA year.

I don't think you need to remind people the NHL draft exists. It applies to every player and the vast, vast majority of star players have still re-signed with their original team.

 

[egd27]

NYI missed the playoffs in his final season with the team though. I couldn't consider that "top tier".

But a team that can't get out of the first round is considered "top tier"?

 

[Gary Nylund]

I think most posters will at least agree to Marner being overpaid by a couple million, Ritchie signing was questionable (I've warmed up to a little, but still seems like a bad signing), I am sure there are more that are universally agreed on as bad moves, but those are the two off the top of my head, where I am sure even his strongest supporters can agree he didn't make the best calls.

Most of the criticism is with hindsight involved, which is never fair.

Sparks
Foligno (slight overpay in my opinion, but it was also market value at the time)
Marleau
Mrazek
Zaitsev
Brown
Kapenan
Johnsson
etc...

All were not his fault (cleaning up the mess left to him) or just look bad in hindsight but were likely the right move with the given knowledge

Most, sure. I'm just saying that there are two posters here who post a ton every day (except when we play like crap, then they disappear until things get better) and I have never, like not even once seen a hint of disapproval from either one of them about anything Dubas has ever done, and that includes the Marner contract. That contract still pisses me off when I think about it and I would dearly love to know WTF Dubas was thinking. The cap hit is so bad and he couldn't even get max term, just unbelievable.

 

[Twine Tickler]

The deal didn't walk him directly to UFA, it bought a UFA year.

I don't think you need to remind people the NHL draft exists. It applies to every player and the vast, vast majority of star players have still re-signed with their original team.

My mistake, yes it bought 1 year UFA. Still doesn't impact where I stand on the deal.

I've not said that there was no possibility of Auston resigning, I said it was a naïve thought to insinuate this will be a routine set of business. Especially if our post season results continue to be the same over the next 2 seasons.

Auston and his camp very strategically designed the termination of his deal to align with the prime of his career for 1 of 2 reasons. To maximize his earnings on his next deal with TOR, or hit the UFA market at 26 years old and have all 32 teams making offers for his services.

Applying the vast majority of players resign with their drafted team logic does nothing for me personally. Auston is not your typical superstar. He's far more in tune with pop culture and is likely the most marketable player in the NHL. If you think teams won't be lining up to sign him, you are mistaken. He is also not a stupid individual, neither is his agent. Auston testing the UFA market will be either explored or exploited. Both of which will not be favorable for the Leafs.

Our only hope is to have some tangible success in the next 2 seasons, tug on his heart strings with the "C" on his sweater, and hope he wants to finish what he started. If he has any doubts, I don't think Auston will be too worried to break the mold of "usually guys re-sign after their deals expire".

But I really hope I am wrong on that.

 

[Buds17]

But a team that can't get out of the first round is considered "top tier"?

Not at all. I apologize if my post implied as much. I was only implying that the Islanders weren't at that level when Tavares departed from there.

 

[Gary Nylund]

His mistakes IMO:

1. Giving Matthews a 5 year deal, allowing him to potentially walk to free agency at 26

2. Overpaying Marner by 2 million

3. Signing Nylander at the last possible moment, essentially wasting a year of his career

4. Trading a 1st for Foligno

5. Trading the most valuable asset he had for Tyson Barrie, the complete opposite kind of defenseman we needed

6. Exposing McCann to ED after making a brilliant trade to acquire him, only to protect Justin Holl

It’s too early to call not re-signing Campbell a mistake especially since we don’t really know what we have in Mrazek

I don't agree with some of these but they've all been debated at nauseum already so whatever, can't expect everyone to agree on everything.

Overpaid...probably. by $2mm? not even close

If we're talking about how much Marner is overpaid by, I'd say 2 million is the perfect starting point for discussion. Seems spot on to me.

If we get bounced in the first round for the next 2 playoffs, it would mean 7 straight first round exits. Entirely possible in our division.

To me, that is "terrifically awful" results that would warrant a player wanting a better situation.

I don't think I am reaching on that.

Yeah for sure. It's unpleasant to think about and I prefer to focus on the current season but ... the possibility is out there for sure. It's so easy to say that stars usually stay with the team that drafted them but Tavares is a reminder that this isn't always the case and if we were to go out in the 1st round twice more, I'd say the odds of him wanting to leave are quite good. Really hoping we go deep this spring to shift all these unpleasant narratives, Dubas, Matthews, Marner, the same shadow is hanging over all these subjects. But considering we play in the division from hell, the worst case scenario isn't even that big a stretch.

I’ll say it again I’ll be rude, king of posting stats with zero context

Indeed. All hail the king.

But a team that can't get out of the first round is considered "top tier"?

Haha these subjective terms like "top tier" are pretty useless because of how subjective they are. I think I could convincingly argue it either way, I'd just shift the definition to accommodate my argument as required.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Pot.....kettle?

Negativity - hard not to be negative at this point. The franchise has been embarrassment for decades and now finally had a chance to make some noise. But we had to hire a rookie GM who guarantees, overpays, and coddles them. Such a shame to waste these years with a guy who seems to think he has a formula for winning but in every big game, this team folds. Weak management, weak players.

And block me if you want. I at least admit when I'm wrong and don't double down with excuse stats

 

[4thline]

That should Matthews choose not to resign after his current contract, then the "window" may not be the 10 years you had suggested.

If we're drafting well, why does the window have to close with Matthews?

 

[Twine Tickler]

Yeah for sure. It's unpleasant to think about and I prefer to focus on the current season but ... the possibility is out there for sure. It's so easy to say that stars usually stay with the team that drafted them but Tavares is a reminder that this isn't always the case and if we were to go out in the 1st round twice more, I'd say the odds of him wanting to leave are quite good. Really hoping we go deep this spring to shift all these unpleasant narratives, Dubas, Matthews, Marner, the same shadow is hanging over all these subjects. But considering we play in the division from hell, the worst case scenario isn't even that big a stretch.

Yup I really hope so too. I am really happy with the level of play I am seeing so far. This is about the longest stretch of hockey this core has played in succession within the structure of a system. This 13 game stretch where they've gone 11-2-0 has really shown me that this group can play the right way and is constructed in a way that can see post season success. They've had complete buy-in to the defensive side of the ice, which is really nice to see. That is ultimately how you win consistently in the playoffs. He who makes the least mistakes wins in the playoffs.

All n all, the team is looking great. There are really not too many holes on the current roster, and once again this group looks like a true contender.

but we've been fooled once before...

 

[Gary Nylund]

If we're drafting well, why does the window have to close with Matthews?

Good point. I mean Matthews leaving would obviously be really gross and not the least bit pleasant to contemplate. But there's still a boat load of talent here and if were to trade Matthews, we'd surely get a lot back for him ...

 

[Gary Nylund]

Yup I really hope so too. I am really happy with the level of play I am seeing so far. This is about the longest stretch of hockey this core has played in succession within the structure of a system. This 13 game stretch where they've gone 11-2-0 has really shown me that this group can play the right way and is constructed in a way that can see post season success. They've had complete buy-in to the defensive side of the ice, which is really nice to see. That is ultimately how you win consistently in the playoffs. He who makes the least mistakes wins in the playoffs.

All n all, the team is looking great. There are really not too many holes on the current roster, and once again this group looks like a true contender.

All true. Even Ritchie, who knows, his mere presence might be a part of why the boys are looking confident out there? It's only November of course but still, so far they're looking good!

but we've been fooled once before...

I'd say more than once.

 

[4thline]

Good point. I mean Matthews leaving would obviously be really gross and not the least bit pleasant to contemplate. But there's still a boat load of talent here and if were to trade Matthews, we'd surely get a lot back for him ...

Would also make us less top heavy and allow for some of that #depth and #balancedroster that people seem to be clamoring for.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Would also make us less top heavy and allow for some of that #depth and #balancedroster that people seem to be clamoring for.

You may be saying that tongue in cheek but IMHO there's something to that logic and a more balanced roster is a big reason why I would have wanted to see what we could get for Marner this past summer. Marner could be a big part of us winning the cup at some point, or we might never get close with him and we'll look back at last summer as the point where his value coming off a 1st all-star season was at it's highest point. We'll see.