Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part V

[Guttersniped]

Risky move, but if Marino and Dougie stay healthy and any of our prospects can pick up the slack, it could be an extremely smart play. Retention on him I believe would bring in a haul from some contending team.

But, if anyone on the right side gets hurt going into playoffs and/or whoever is on the 3rd pair just sinks the ship, it could be an insanely dumb move in hindsight.

Just a gamble really.

I think Fitz would likely get some defensive depth to replace Severson if he moved him.

It’s impossible to judge how much space we would have to work with since we don’t know if Meier is happening or what the cap implications of that trade will be if it happens. (If we retained salary on a Severson trade then my cap space theory takes a real hit though lol.)

I do think Severson is bummed about the drop in ice-time and points, this is a critical contract year for him. (Not sure it means he wants to be traded though.)

Damon got more PP1 time last season which led to more points.

It really was more a fluky amount of secondary assists and uncharacteristically high shooting %. He’s not good on PP (he was part of the reason our PP was bad.)

(Hamilton’s PP Shooting % is high too now but he just scored 2 PP goals on 2 shots and that sort of thing raises it.)

Spoiler: 2022-23 Power Play

Spoiler: 2021-22 Power Play

When people were yelling at me about the long posts in a GDT someone mentioned using the spoilers. Never used them before or even thought about using them. (I spoil everything!)

 

[Blackjack]

(Softest voice ever) oh no not Reilly Walsh

 

[TrufleShufle]

I think Fitz would likely get some defensive depth to replace Severson if he moved him.

It’s impossible to judge how much space we would have to work with since we don’t know if Meier is happening or what the cap implications of that trade will be if it happens. (If we retained salary on a Severson trade then my cap space theory takes a real hit though lol.)

I do think Severson is bummed about the drop in ice-time and points, this is a critical contract year for him. (Not sure it means he wants to be traded though.)

Damon got more PP1 time last season which led to more points.

It really was more a fluky amount of secondary assists and uncharacteristically high shooting %. He’s not good on PP (he was part of the reason our PP was bad.)

(Hamilton’s PP Shooting % is high too now but he just scored 2 PP goals on 2 shots and that sort of thing raises it.)

Spoiler: 2022-22 Power Play

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Spoiler: 2021-22 Power Play

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When people were yelling at me about the long posts in a GDT someone mentioned using the spoilers. Never used them before or even thought about using them. (I spoil everything!)

YEA!!!!!! So much better!

 

[NJDevs26]

First I wouldn't trade Severson right now for anything short of an overpayment.

Plus, how is what you just said not completely contradictory to the point you are making when all put together?


K, now pretend to shake salt onto your tongue from a salt shaker, you can actually taste the salt.

I expounded on it later, but to reiterate - Severson is not going to get the overinflated return most defensemen get at the deadline because (in addition to being a rental most teams probably won't sign immediately) he's not physical and doesn't have much playoff experience. But he's generally better than what gets dealt at the deadline.

 

[TrufleShufle]

I expounded on it later, but to reiterate - Severson is not going to get the overinflated return most defensemen get at the deadline because (in addition to being a rental most teams probably won't sign immediately) he's not physical and doesn't have much playoff experience. But he's generally better than what gets dealt at the deadline.

Yea, if the camp "don't trade just for the sake of it like you are selling but only if someone blows your socks off" exists, that's where I am. If not, I'm starting one now.

 

[Unknown Caller]

Yeah but we're playing like crap.

They are playing like absolute shit. The last few years I was the first one to say the Devils were playing incredibly well despite losing, so it's only fair that we admit they're playing like shit even though they're winning games.

They need to make systematic changes and turn it around or it's going to be a quick week of playoff games in April. Teams have figured them out and they need to make the necessary adjustments.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Under discussed aspect of Meier is that SJS still haven’t given his agent permission to speak to other teams. That makes me wonder how willing they are to trade actually trade him. Might just be listening to offers to see if someone blows them away.

I guess they could just be waiting for an adequate deal to be in place first rather than just letting him talk around to teams. Like if a team gives them an acceptable offer or things are getting close they could give permission to that team.

 

[NJDevs26]

Under discussed aspect of Meier is that SJS still haven’t given his agent permission to speak to other teams. That makes me wonder how willing they are to trade actually trade him. Might just be listening to offers to see if someone blows them away.

I assume that'll come when someone meets their asking price, or they decide something's close enough to it.

 

[Devs3cups]

Some of y’all exaggerate stuff to a whole other level. Are we playing like we were at the start of the year and during the historic streak? Nope, we aren’t, and progress can be made. But we’re not the Blackhawks either. Some here make it sound like we are legitimately one of the worst teams in the league after every game.

Last 25 games:

Even Strength (All Strength)

CF%: 7th (14th)
SF%: 7th (10th)
xGF%: 17th (22nd)
SCF%: 4th (11th)
HDCF%: 5th (14th)

The defense seems to be a problem, especially at EV. Probably explains the huge difference between SCF%/HDCF% and xGF% at even strength.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I assume that'll come when someone meets their asking price, or they decide something's close enough to it.

Ya just thought of that and added it.

 

[Emperoreddy]

 

[Rhodes 81]

Is Severson that important to the team atm? Not really. Marino has phased his role out.

Long term, he's been replaced by Marino, but in the short term he actually averages more 5v5 TOI/game than Marino. Among defenders at 5v5, he's 2nd on the team behind Hamilton for corsi for %, first for xGF%, 2nd the Hamilton in scoring chance %, and first in high danger chance %. That's despite starting in the offensive zone approximately 6.5% less often than Hamilton.

He is not great on the PP, but he eats minutes at even strength and is also not a terrible PKer. He gives up a lot, but he generates much more offense. It's what he's always done and almost any team would be happy to add him to their third pairing, which is the luxury we have right now. If you trade him, you're basically saying you're not serious about competing for anything this year.

 

[Zippy316]

Some of y’all exaggerate stuff to a whole other level. Are we playing like we were at the start of the year and during the historic streak? Nope, we aren’t, and progress can be made. But we’re not the Blackhawks either. Some here make it sound like we are legitimately one of the worst teams in the league after every game.

Last 25 games:

Even Strength (All Strength)

CF%: 7th (14th)
SF%: 7th (10th)
xGF%: 17th (22nd)
SCF%: 4th (11th)
HDCF%: 5th (14th)

The defense seems to be a problem, especially at EV. Probably explains the huge difference between SCF%/HDCF% and xGF% at even strength.

Change that to last twelve games (which we’ve also been 10-1-1 ironically)

The 25 game threshold still has a good chunk of games from around Christmas time when we were still dominating the ice 5 on 5. The last 10 or so games the team has struggled to get back to their early-season play.

 

[Lou is God]

Interesting

If true, it could be to make room for Nemec, not just Hughes.

 

[JK3]

I think Fitz would likely get some defensive depth to replace Severson if he moved him.

It’s impossible to judge how much space we would have to work with since we don’t know if Meier is happening or what the cap implications of that trade will be if it happens. (If we retained salary on a Severson trade then my cap space theory takes a real hit though lol.)

I do think Severson is bummed about the drop in ice-time and points, this is a critical contract year for him. (Not sure it means he wants to be traded though.)

Damon got more PP1 time last season which led to more points.

It really was more a fluky amount of secondary assists and uncharacteristically high shooting %. He’s not good on PP (he was part of the reason our PP was bad.)

(Hamilton’s PP Shooting % is high too now but he just scored 2 PP goals on 2 shots and that sort of thing raises it.)

Spoiler: 2022-23 Power Play

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View attachment 648158

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Spoiler: 2021-22 Power Play

View attachment 648166

View attachment 648167

View attachment 648168

When people were yelling at me about the long posts in a GDT someone mentioned using the spoilers. Never used them before or even thought about using them. (I spoil everything!)

This is great, no more scrolling, thank you! Much easier to read your thoughts and then click on the tag to check out the info if you want.

 

[Emperoreddy]

I don't really get trading Severson unless the idea is to clear cap for a big move

 

[glenwo2]

At best it’s robbing Peter to pay Paul, strengthen the offense and weaken the D which already looks like it’s fraying at the edges a little

Or robbing Bratt to pay Timo.

See, @Its Always Sundstrom ? I'm still me.

 

[Brodeur]

I don't love the idea of throwing Luke or Nemec into the deep end of NHL playoff hockey, but there's probably no harm in seeing what Severson could fetch. Unfortunately I don't think the RD market will be that great. Anaheim will be dumping Klingberg, Minnesota's been shopping Dumba, and Vancouver will be dangling Schenn. Of the playoff contenders:

Boston: McAvoy-Carlo-Clifton
Toronto: Brodie (LH)-Liljegren-Holl-Timmins
Tampa: Cernak-Foote-Perbix-Bogosian
Florida: Ekblad-Montour-Gudas
Buffalo: Dahlin (LH)-Jokiharju-Lyubushkin

Carolina: Burns-Pesce-Chatfield-Coghlan
NY Rangers: Fox-Trouba-Schneider
Washington: Carlson(inj)-Jensen-van Riemsdyk
Pittsburgh: Letang-Petry-Rutta-Ruhwedel-Friedman
NY Islanders: Dobson-Pulock-Mayfield

Dallas: Heiskanen (LH)-Hakanpaa-Miller-Lundkvist
Winnipeg: Schmidt (LH)-Pionk-DeMelo
Colorado: Makar-Manson-Johnson
Minnesota: Spurgeon-Dumba-Addison
Nashville: Josi (LH)-Fabbro-Carrier

Vegas: Pietrangelo-Theodore (LH)-Whitecloud-Korczak
Seattle: Larsson-Schultz-Borgen
Edmonton: Bouchard-Ceci-Barrie
Los Angeles: Doughty-Roy-Durzi (plays left)-Walker-Spence
Calgary: Andersson-Weegar (plays left)-Tanev-Stone

If they dealt him, I'd imagine they'd prefer a Western Conference team. Seattle maybe? Nashville could use an upgrade and they have Hynes who'd be familiar with Severson, but who knows if they'll be a buyer in a couple weeks.

 

[NjDevsRR]

I don't really get trading Severson unless the idea is to clear cap for a big move

Clear cap

Gain more assets that go towards a Meier trade

Extend Meier and Bratter

HfDevs pepe and dano party

 

[Billdo]

Moving Severson makes no sense unless they're confident in Hughes or Nemec AND the assets gained are significant towards filling other voids like our bottom 6 or for Meier

 

[Nubmer6]

I just did this five times and now people are looking at me.

Dork.

 

[JK3]

I'm not the biggest Severson fan at all but what the hell would we have done when Marino went down and him not on the team. As much as he makes me nuts the dude is never hurt and eats tons of minutes. It's kind of crazy, it doesn't phase him, he could probably play 30 minutes if asked. That being said I don't want him on the first pairing, our D has been massively improved with him playing down in the lineup with less minutes.

I'd hate to not get anything for him when he's off to FA next year but I think he's too valuable to us down the stretch and in the playoffs. We're talking about possibly plugging in one of 2 kids who never played a minute in the NHL, that could backfire massively.

I'm not really nostalgic about players at all and feel that they deserve something (like keeping him around after being on shit teams). He's an asset and should be used as such to improve the team overall. If it takes him to get Meier I might be for it but again it could totally backfire.

 

[Nubmer6]

I think Fitz would likely get some defensive depth to replace Severson if he moved him.

It’s impossible to judge how much space we would have to work with since we don’t know if Meier is happening or what the cap implications of that trade will be if it happens. (If we retained salary on a Severson trade then my cap space theory takes a real hit though lol.)

I do think Severson is bummed about the drop in ice-time and points, this is a critical contract year for him. (Not sure it means he wants to be traded though.)

Damon got more PP1 time last season which led to more points.

It really was more a fluky amount of secondary assists and uncharacteristically high shooting %. He’s not good on PP (he was part of the reason our PP was bad.)

(Hamilton’s PP Shooting % is high too now but he just scored 2 PP goals on 2 shots and that sort of thing raises it.)

Spoiler: 2022-23 Power Play

View attachment 648157

View attachment 648158

View attachment 648159

Spoiler: 2021-22 Power Play

View attachment 648166

View attachment 648167

View attachment 648168

When people were yelling at me about the long posts in a GDT someone mentioned using the spoilers. Never used them before or even thought about using them. (I spoil everything!)

At this point, after seeing the Siegenthaler and Marino trades, I have faith in Fitz's defenseman evaluations.

 

[JrFischer54]

Under discussed aspect of Meier is that SJS still haven’t given his agent permission to speak to other teams. That makes me wonder how willing they are to trade actually trade him. Might just be listening to offers to see if someone blows them away.

I guess they could just be waiting for an adequate deal to be in place first rather than just letting him talk around to teams. Like if a team gives them an acceptable offer or things are getting close they could give permission to that team.

wouldn't even bother me if he came here without an extension in place. it would keep the price lower and at some point you have to be confident enough in your ability to become a destination that players want to sign long term. no reason to think timo wouldn't want to reup here long term that goes for any "rental" player if the team wanted to sign them longer in the summer.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Sounds like Timo or bust to me