Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part V

[bossram]

Some of y’all exaggerate stuff to a whole other level. Are we playing like we were at the start of the year and during the historic streak? Nope, we aren’t, and progress can be made. But we’re not the Blackhawks either. Some here make it sound like we are legitimately one of the worst teams in the league after every game.

Last 25 games:

Even Strength (All Strength)

CF%: 7th (14th)
SF%: 7th (10th)
xGF%: 17th (22nd)
SCF%: 4th (11th)
HDCF%: 5th (14th)

The defense seems to be a problem, especially at EV. Probably explains the huge difference between SCF%/HDCF% and xGF% at even strength.

Is this score adjusted? A lot of the reason the raw numbers don't look terrible is because of score effects. The Devils have been playing from behind a lot, needing to push, and the opposition fine with sitting back.

Per NST for the last 25 games, I see Devils between 49% and 52% for all of Corsi, xG, SC, and HDC - which is okay, but not great. But that is not score adjusted. At Evolving Hockey, which has score-adjusted stats, the Devils are 50% Corsi but down to 47% xG. That is not good at all - ranked 25th in the league. And it's been trending down.

I think there is some evidence that Ruff's systems are essentially being "solved". I've been pretty consistent that I don't like Ruff's playing style, as basically no modern NHL teams play a defensive zone scheme that the Devils do. Video below from Jack Han also has some interesting hypotheses on NJ's systems flaws. The breakout fails are things I've visually noticed quite often. The forecheck is something I have not visually noticed, but running an aggressive 2-1-2 forecheck is something that basically no other team does now.

 

[MadDevil]

We just saw how helpful it was to have depth when Marino was out. Why would we purposely deplete that depth for futures when we're headed for our second playoff appearance in the last 11 seasons?

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Nah. Selling a guy, with L. Hughes/Nemec on the doorstep is 4D chess.

This team has a better chance of winning without Sev’s than Jack. Look at the funking depth on offense right meow.

Trading Sev’s wouldn’t be just to recoup assets it’s also to free up space.

This is just totally unwise. Luke will only be able to get a few games in before the playoffs and is likely not capable of shouldering the load Severson is. Nemec is not ready to do that either. The answer to our defensive issues is not sprinkling in a couple rookies. That sounds like a total disaster.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

This is just totally unwise. Luke will only be able to get a few games in before the playoffs and is likely not capable of shouldering the load Severson is. Nemec is not ready to do that either. The answer to our defensive issues is not sprinkling in a couple rookies. That sounds like a total disaster.

Yeah this is the recipe for a team just happy to be there, looking forward to next season. Which to be fair was what I imagined the best case scenario was for NJ entering the season (challenging for playoff spot and sneaking in).

But I think that ship sailed and the team should try to win a cup starting this year. Don't sacrifice a playoff run just to get Nemec / L.Hughes playing time. Don't dump Severson for a late 1st which is most likely not going to help anytime in the next 4 years if at all.

 

[Emperoreddy]

 

[Guttersniped]

The Sev’s trade talk is bitter sweet. I was semi attacked in the Nemec tread for saying they should probably trade Sev’s.

1) I think a series with the Rangers is a crapshoot and they have bolstered their roster. The easier teams should be knocked out round 1.

2) Luke Hughes and Nemec could fill the void. They are the future and the experience would be valuable. Plus, you have the other defenseman who filled in all year. The depth is still pretty solid. Don’t worry too much, they don’t call penalties in the playoffs.

3) Returns on defenseman tend to be lucrative. Plus, it free’s up cap, to add more offense. Sev’s is 100% out, this summer. You have multiple prospects on the doorstep.

They did call penalties in the last playoffs.

There’s been a big drop in the penalties called in playoffs over the last decade BM but that also reflects the big drop in regular season PP

Spoiler: PIM in the 2021-22 Playoffs

A Breakdown of Penalties During the Stanley Cup Playoffs

Are refs actually calling more penalties than they usually do during the Stanley Cup playoffs? How different is playoff officiating really? Which teams have been getting penalized the most? Here are some of the trends.

thehockeynews.com

I don’t think the answer is “let the kids play” in the playoffs. I don’t think it will necessarily be Fitz‘s answer to next season’s UFA losses at defense.

So I’m intrigued by Fitz wheeling and dealing if Severson is replaced by a cheaper rental or maybe a transitional defenseman for the short-term future.

It’s not like we’re a well-oiled contender that can’t be fiddled with. This team needs improvements and has a bunch of UFAs who won’t be back.

Just passively shrugging, and saying you let everyone walk because “playoffs”, is not an iron clad rule or the only good plan.

Most likely nothing interesting will happen with Severson though, I’m ready for a lot of smoke lol.

 

[Guttersniped]

Thank the lord, Brendan Smith is capable of boarding a plane!

 

[xigon]

Not to sound selfish but, I bet on hughes to win the Rocket at +4500, so I hope he doesn’t miss many games. Ofc, his health is more important but, .

 

[Clam Jensen]

yo this shit slaps

View attachment 648252

Absolutely wrecked me with this one.

 

[Guttersniped]

Look at the funking depth on offense right meow.

yo this shit slaps

 

[Goptor]

Some of you guys are under selling Luke's impact at the end of the season.

He's spent all year in the weight room with weekend home games. The rest of the NHL has been busting their ass for 82 games. Players slow down and get worn out and Luke will be coming in fresh.

The college guys always outperform when they sub in at the end of a season.

 

[Brodeur]

Moving Severson makes no sense unless they're confident in Hughes or Nemec AND the assets gained are significant towards filling other voids like our bottom 6 or for Meier

Just for fun, I'm not advocating to do this:



Edmonton: LD Carson Soucy
Seattle: EDM 2nd round pick (~54th overall)

Soucy is UFA and it seemed like Seattle has been shopping him which might explain the Jayson Megna acquisition. Edmonton had previous interest in Soucy at last year's deadline. Apparently Soucy was among a handful of unused jerseys at an Oilers sale last year (ie, they had jerseys made up ahead of time in case the new player joined them on the road). Oilers GM Ken Holland mentioned how it's basically "dollar in dollar out" with any deadline trades. Soucy (2.75 mil) would more or less match up if they can dump Jesse Puljuarvi (3 mil).

Seattle: RD Damon Severson
New Jersey: SEA 1st round pick (~23rd overall)

Seattle falls back a round but improves their 2RD spot? Seattle would have the cap space and motivation to extend Severson as well.

Hampus Lindholm got a late 1st + other non-premium assets last year. Ben Chiarot somehow netted a 1st. Josh Manson got a 2nd + recent 2nd round prospect Drew Helleson.

EDM:
Nurse-Ceci
Soucy-Barrie
Kulak-Bouchard

SEA:
Dunn-Larsson
Oleksiak-Severson
Megna-Schultz

NJD:
Siegenthaler-Hamilton
Graves-Marino
Smith-(Hughes/Nemec/replacement rental)

 

[BostonDevil]

Death, taxes and the fear of a Devils trade on this board.

Can’t wait to see what ends up happening but I’m 99% sure that whatever they do will have cost too much, destroy the cap or was just the wrong guy.

I’m so happy to be buyers this year!!!! Bring it on!!

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Henrique or Meier and they beat the Rangers in round 1 unless Vanecek turns into a pumpkin which isn't predictable with how he's been this year.

 

[Guttersniped]

Just for fun, I'm not advocating to do this:



Edmonton: LD Carson Soucy
Seattle: EDM 2nd round pick (~54th overall)

Soucy is UFA and it seemed like Seattle has been shopping him which might explain the Jayson Megna acquisition. Edmonton had previous interest in Soucy at last year's deadline. Apparently Soucy was among a handful of unused jerseys at an Oilers sale last year (ie, they had jerseys made up ahead of time in case the new player joined them on the road). Oilers GM Ken Holland mentioned how it's basically "dollar in dollar out" with any deadline trades. Soucy (2.75 mil) would more or less match up if they can dump Jesse Puljuarvi (3 mil).

Seattle: RD Damon Severson
New Jersey: SEA 1st round pick (~23rd overall)

Seattle falls back a round but improves their 2RD spot? Seattle would have the cap space and motivation to extend Severson as well.

Hampus Lindholm got a late 1st + other non-premium assets last year. Ben Chiarot somehow netted a 1st. Josh Manson got a 2nd + recent 2nd round prospect Drew Helleson.

EDM:
Nurse-Ceci
Soucy-Barrie
Kulak-Bouchard

SEA:
Dunn-Larsson
Oleksiak-Severson
Megna-Schultz

NJD:
Siegenthaler-Hamilton
Graves-Marino
Smith-(Hughes/Nemec/replacement rental)

I’ve seen this tweet before and I’m still fascinated by the team both making and selling those unused jerseys.



We’re on a road trip during the 2023 TDL.

The small break before it is the only little extra down time the team gets for a while.

After that they don’t get more than 1 day off between games until after March 21st. (That’s 12 games, with two b2b, in 21 days.)

Got to make trades early Fitz and give Timo players time to get settled.

 

[Brodeur]

We’re on a road trip during the 2023 TDL.

View attachment 648304

The small break before it is the only little extra down time the team gets for a while.

After that they don’t get more than 1 day off between games until after March 21st. (That’s 12 games, with two b2b, in 21 days.)

Got to make trades early Fitz and give Timo players time to get settled.

I booked a flight for the Coyotes game a couple days ago. Would have loved to have added a Vegas leg but it's a UFC weekend there and hotel prices are beyond ridiculous. Maybe I'll stalk the team bus and see if a random unused jersey falls out.

 

[BostonDevil]

Henrique or Meier and they beat the Rangers in round 1 unless Vanecek turns into a pumpkin which isn't predictable with how he's been this year.

Love Henrique but I don’t know about that contract next year. Does it limit us from doing other things? Not saying he won’t help but for a couple million more, Meier.

Would actually prefer Rico was a rental.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Love Henrique but I don’t know about that contract next year. Does it limit us from doing other things? Not saying he won’t help but for a couple million more, Meier.

Would actually prefer Rico was a rental.

Make Anaheim retain and you get a plug and play top 6 LW when injuries happen and then your 3C for 2.9M which has been a revolving door between Boqvist/Haula/etc. They clearly don't think Boqvist should be in the lineup for whatever reason lately when he should be in over Wood.

 

[Ripshot 43]

I think selling a UFA when you are clearly a playoff team sounds like an odd strategy, so what if Fitz is looking to flip Severson for a more defensively responsible defenseman? Maybe someone who brings a different element to the backend.

 

[Guttersniped]

I booked a flight for the Coyotes game a couple days ago. Would have loved to have added a Vegas leg but it's a UFC weekend there and hotel prices are beyond ridiculous. Maybe I'll stalk the team bus and see if a random unused jersey falls out.

 

[Rybo]

I would like to beat the Rangers. We’re beyond the “gather assets” stage. Time to win.


I’d like to have Luke go in for Smith. I don’t think it’s fair to expect Luke to replace Severson’s big minutes.

Maybe theyre moving Severson for money then, and perhaps they can acquire a cheap veteran 3RD! Thatd dave Luke from big minutes but also accomplish what some (and maybe Fitz) want

 

[BostonDevil]

Make Anaheim retain and you get a plug and play top 6 LW when injuries happen and then your 3C for 2.9M which has been a revolving door between Boqvist/Haula/etc. They clearly don't think Boqvist should be in the lineup for whatever reason lately when he should be in over Wood.

OK - I’m in for 3M on one year of Rico.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

OK - I’m in for 3M on one year of Rico.

Henrique is also signed for next season as well.

 

[BostonDevil]

Henrique is also signed for next season as well.

That was the year. Next year at 6M was my problem.

 

[OmNomNom]