Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part IV

[Bleedred]

Just do what I do and just watch the YT highlights. It's better for my blood pressure than getting angry and annoyed with the team going through the motions. If they don't give a shit anymore, I don't either.

I wish I could, but it’s almost like a TV show you’ve invested so much time in and the last season or two have been terrible, but you really wanna watch just to see how the series ends.

I’d be sitting around compulsively checking the score every few minutes anyway haha.

The most I’ve done is if I’m running errands or something I don’t rush home to get here in time for the game anymore. If I have to run to the store the intermission I’ll do it now. I used to not do that, but that’s a change in habits I’ve made probably since February. Where I don’t necessarily make it a point to be home and have the TV on by puck drop. I’ll instead do what I need to do and have the game going through bluetooth on my stereo when I’m driving around before I get home.

 

[TrufleShufle]

I am a Seamus Casey fan but this fan base heavily overrates him.

I mean maybe? But if that's true it's mostly due to the fact over the last year or two we went from having a top 3 prospect pool with no shortage of prospects to be excited about down to just one. He's our only child, he get's all the Christmas presents now.

 

[Guttersniped]

Numbers don't lie? Here are the numbers. Dumoulin was:
- 6th among regular SEA defensemen in ATOI (16:55)
- Played the 2nd lowest minutes proportion of minutes against "Elite" competition per PuckIQ (26% of ice time).
- 53% xG (highest among Seattle defenseman!)

Dumoulin had good results in pretty much the most sheltered role you could possibly give him. I have no idea what you're talking about with Marino doing better last year in a "lesser" role. He was absolutely buried last season with DZ starts and constantly facing top competition. It's clear you don't know what you're talking about there.

Last season Dumoulin was:
- 3rd among regular PIT defensemen in ATOI (20:38)
- Played the most minutes against elite competition on the team (30.4%)
- 50% xG (last among PIT defenseman!)

So we can see, in a tough minutes role, Dumoulin performed quite badly, ranking last in xG%. Compare that to Bahl this season:
- 5th in ATOI among regular Devils defensemen (17:23)
- Yet 2nd highest proportion of minutes against Elite competition (36.2%)
- 52% xG (4th among regular NJ defensemen)

Bahl performed better in a tougher role than Dumoulin did last season (more of his minutes were against Elite competition). Dumoulin's results are better this year, but he's playing a very sheltered role.

And now I see you are backtracking on Casey's impact. Let's be clear: You do not expect Casey to play at a 1D calibre level in the playoffs next season, as you said before, because that is the impact Byram had in his 20 year old season. So you admit that you do not think he will be a Byram-level upgrade.

I didn’t know Dumoulin was that sheltered in Seattle (classic 90’s comedy!).


Yep, that’s sheltered lol. This is also borderline abusive to Oleksiak & Borgen.

Pittsburgh in 2022-23


Yeah, Marino had it tougher both seasons, as did Bahl this year.

 

[Guttersniped]

For people arguing goalie performance is a product of the team, I give you Seattle:

Gallant

and

Goofus

Grubauer does have a handle on those medium danger shots, so that’s good.

 

[Triumph]

I am a Seamus Casey fan but this fan base heavily overrates him.

He's not likely to become an above-average player, but he still has a ton of potential, and it's the kind of potential that other teams tend to overlook. Small players basically have to keep proving themselves until they're about 30.

 

[JimEIV]

For people arguing goalie performance is a product of the team, I give you Seattle:

Gallant
View attachment 846382
and

Goofus
View attachment 846381
Grubauer does have a handle on those medium danger shots, so that’s good.

Grubauer missed 3 months with injuries this year...

He was bad before the injury and he was bad last year but I don't think this is a very good example.

That's probably a better example of goalie who's career is nearly over.

Edit:
And the irony is for all the glaring difference in stats and SV% they are both winning games at the same rate

12 wins in 30 starts 40%
18 wins in 43 starts 42%

Go figure....it might have something to do with team? Maybe? Perhaps?

 

[Guttersniped]

Grubauer missed 3 months with injuries this year...

He was bad before the injury and he was bad last year but I don't think this is a very good example.

That's probably a better example of goalie who's career is nearly over.

Edit:
And the irony is for all the glaring difference in stats and SV% they are both winning games at the same rate

12 wins in 30 starts 40%
18 wins in 43 starts 42%

Go figure....it might have something to do with team? Maybe? Perhaps?

What is that made up Win % math?

Daccord has a 18-16-11 record, which is a .522 win %

Grubauer has a 12-14-2 record, which is .464 win %

Also,
Daccord has
1 regulation loss w/ 1 GA
1 SO loss w/ 1 GA
7 regulation losses w/ 2 GA
3 OT losses w/ 2 GA
1 SO loss w/ 2 GA

That’s how Daccord has 30 Quality Starts and 18 wins. That’s the team’s fault. Seattle is 29th in GF.

Grubauer has 13 Quality Starts and 12 wins.
He has 4 regulation losses w/ 2 GA, so he got some of that lack of goal support too, but the team made it up to him.

 

[Bleedred]

Grubauer is a roasted marshmallow and has been for several years now.

He’s scorched.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

For people arguing goalie performance is a product of the team, I give you Seattle:

Gallant
View attachment 846382
and

Goofus
View attachment 846381
Grubauer does have a handle on those medium danger shots, so that’s good.

Goofus lmao, but yeah I think that's just Grubauer being bad. He's one of the most maddening goalies in the league for whatever reason and he's the epitome of the position when you're not elite. He can have a great season at hover around .915 or completely tank your season. I haven't watched Seattle much at all this year but they're going through weird ebbs and flows through their early years like an expansion team should (Screw you Vegas lol). Pretty bad the first year, pretty good the second year and now back to bad this year.

Grubauer is a roasted marshmallow and has been for several years now.

He’s scorched.

Knew you were gonna reply on Grubauer, just a when not if with all the goalie talk we do

 

[billingtons ghost]

Sharangovich Zetterlund Boqvist Wood Severson Graves was too much depth to lose in one off season. Then McLeod

Then injuries. Hamilton, Siegenthaler, whatever is going on with Jack...

Then whatever went wrong with Vitek...he still hasn't played a game since the beginning of February. Who knows what his future holds.... Forget hockey just on a human level.

Going into the season with Bahl and Luke and potentially Nemec was always a dangerous play. Early injury to Miller before the season even started then Hamilton after losing Severson and Graves was too big of hole to overcome in my opinion. Then injuries to Siegenthaler....a lack of PKers forced Smith to play way more than he should've

I'm not sure I want to blame Fitz for any of this. We put our resources into Meier and Bratt...we expected the young defenders to have more support than injuries would allow....

I'm not sure how much Fitz knew about McLeod but he said that the league advice was to proceed with business as usual....you can't say that if it wasn't true.

The ONLY thing I think I question Fitz for is Toffolli... I don't think he was a fit at all. Fast attacking, quick transition and you get a guy that can barely move to play with one of best skaters in the league? It doesn't make sense. Might as well put an anchor on Jack's ankle.

All in all it really looks more bad luck than bad decisions... let's see how Fitz addresses the issues...one thing is for certain, the Fitz honeymoon is over now

Should pretty much sticky this for season summation.

 

[Bleedred]

Goofus lmao, but yeah I think that's just Grubauer being bad. He's one of the most maddening goalies in the league for whatever reason and he's the epitome of the position when you're not elite. He can have a great season at hover around .915 or completely tank your season. I haven't watched Seattle much at all this year but they're going through weird ebbs and flows through their early years like an expansion team should (Screw you Vegas lol). Pretty bad the first year, pretty good the second year and now back to bad this year.



Knew you were gonna reply on Grubauer, just a when not if with all the goalie talk we do

He was okay last year on some of the models. I haven’t seen many that had him as pretty good.

He’s been an abomination this year and year one in Seattle though.

Last year’s playoff berth and them winning a round with him probably saved him from a buyout this summer, but he’s gotta be on thin ice after he was overthrown by Daccord and they actually let it happen.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

He was okay last year on some of the models. I haven’t seen many that had him as pretty good.

He’s been an abomination this year and year one in Seattle though.

Last year’s playoff berth and them winning a round with him probably saved him from a buyout this summer, but he’s gotta be on thin ice after he was overthrown by Daccord and they actually let it happen.

Ya, more so referring to his Colorado and Washington days. He's been comically bad for Seattle. Didn't they draft Vanecek from Washington or something in the expansion draft or am I misremembering that? A Grubauer and Vanecek duo might've folded the franchise before they ever got started lmao

 

[billingtons ghost]

Goofus lmao, but yeah I think that's just Grubauer being bad. He's one of the most maddening goalies in the league for whatever reason and he's the epitome of the position when you're not elite. He can have a great season at hover around .915 or completely tank your season. I haven't watched Seattle much at all this year but they're going through weird ebbs and flows through their early years like an expansion team should (Screw you Vegas lol). Pretty bad the first year, pretty good the second year and now back to bad this year.



Knew you were gonna reply on Grubauer, just a when not if with all the goalie talk we do

I think it's more a condemnation of the stupid stats we try to use to assess goalie play.

Grubauer is ugly to watch now, but I got to watch alot of their games and they have never been a good team in front of him, despite the metrics.

It doesn't matter the amount of chances you get against a goalie a game. All it takes is three unstoppable for you to lose a game.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I think it's more a condemnation of the stupid stats we try to use to assess goalie play.

Grubauer is ugly to watch now, but I got to watch alot of their games and they have never been a good team in front of him, despite the metrics.

It doesn't matter the amount of chances you get against a goalie a game. All it takes is three for you to list a game.

Some of it probably has to do shock value of him going from Colorado to Seattle and the talent just being so different. You lose confidence as a goalie as soon as you get shelled plus he's one of the higher paid guys on Seattle, no? It's tougher to roster construct when you're a middling team and you give a big contract to a goalie, Florida had that issue for years with Bob and just recently got over that hump

 

[JimEIV]

What is that made up Win % math?

Daccord has a 18-16-11 record, which is a .522 win %

Grubauer has a 12-14-2 record, which is .464 win %

Also,
Daccord has
1 regulation loss w/ 1 GA
1 SO loss w/ 1 GA
7 regulation losses w/ 2 GA
3 OT losses w/ 2 GA
1 SO loss w/ 2 GA

That’s how Daccord has 30 Quality Starts and 18 wins. That’s the team’s fault.

Grubauer has 13 Quality Starts and 12 wins.
He has 4 regulation losses w/ 2 GA, so he got some of that lack of goal support too, but the team made it up to him.

Seattle is 29th in GF.

Those aren't win% they are point percentages.

They both won games at the same rate. One just got a lot of loser points.

 

[Guttersniped]

Some of it probably has to do shock value of him going from Colorado to Seattle and the talent just being so different. You lose confidence as a goalie as soon as you get shelled plus he's one of the higher paid guys on Seattle, no? It's tougher to roster construct when you're a middling team and you give a big contract to a goalie, Florida had that issue for years with Bob and just recently got over that hump

He doesn’t get shelled in Seattle though, they’re a pretty defense-minded team that suppresses shots and keeps traffic out of their crease.

The worst thing about the team defensively is the PK and Grubauer does pretty well on that.

Sometimes goalies fall off a cliff at around ~30, the position is tough on the body.

 

[Guttersniped]

Those aren't win% they are point percentages.

They both won games at the same rate. One just got a lot of loser points.

If you want to live in your own alternate universe, with alternate facts, you do you, but went with how win percentage is actually calculated in the NHL.

The loser point is what replaced ties, which were also calculated into win % back in the day. Neither team won those games.

And keeping the score close enough to get to OT is pretty important. It would have been useful for us to have a goalie keep us in more games like Daccord did with Seattle.

 

[billingtons ghost]

For people arguing goalie performance is a product of the team, I give you Seattle:

Gallant
View attachment 846382
and

Goofus
View attachment 846381
Grubauer does have a handle on those medium danger shots, so that’s good.

Yeah. Interesting that rebound control doesn't hurt Daccord. Couple extra 'high danger' shots rammed into his pad? Interesting that medium danger shots is a thing at all.. like wtf. Interesting that one goalie is better than another when down a man. Like when goalies probably have the most impact.

Weird.

I think the thing that bothers me the most is that's so completely dismissive of so much of the important things about playing the sport.

Hell, Grubauer could have had a coach or defensive group he jibed with in Wash and Colorado and a system that made it easy for him to see and stop pucks.

But instead we get this reductive bullshit that takes into a very small number of factors of what makes a shot hard to stop and treat it like law. It's so religious.

 

[Bleedred]

Ya, more so referring to his Colorado and Washington days. He's been comically bad for Seattle. Didn't they draft Vanecek from Washington or something in the expansion draft or am I misremembering that? A Grubauer and Vanecek duo might've folded the franchise before they ever got started lmao

Yes, you’re remembering correctly. And I’m pretty sure Washington traded them a second to get him back after that.

I guess they traded him back to Washington after they signed Grubauer? Not knowing if they would be able to sign him or someone else I think they took Driedger and Vanecek in the expansion draft.

Driedger is still there and in the final year of his deal, but had surgery after their first year, which caused him not to be ready for the start of the 22-23 season. They signed Martin Jones that offseason and it relegated Driedger to the AHL by the time he was ready to play. And this year they went with Daccord, who they had the last couple of years as their AHL goalie. Driedger has since played during injury call ups, but that’s it.

 

[bossram]

Sure, I'd trade him for a LHD but why not go after someone like Hanifin in UFA if he makes it there first. Granted, the rumors of him wanting Florida are rampant and probably accurate. As for the other points you make, like I said above, Marino is the entire wild card to the whole defense. If he sucks ass, then RHD is still an issue and you don't just trade Casey. If Marino is good, then it alleviates the pressure somewhat on the RHD and you can look at a better Siegs replacement

I'm optimistic on Marino. His career track record of defensive ability, last season aside, is sublime.

I wouldn't mind Hanifin in UFA, but I doubt he makes it to July 1st. And if he does, he's going to Sunrise or Tampa. Skjei is likely the only hard-minutes top-four LHD that will be available as a UFA, which will mean he will be very expensive and sought after.

This is why I think the only real way to address that area is via trade, and Casey & Holtz are some of the obvious trade chips.

I don't think Casey moves the needle in a deal for a top-pairing defenseman. The same concerns you brought up with him is exactly what NHL decision makers would think, if not worse.

That's fine. If he doesn't, don't trade him. If he can be used to acquire a top-pair LD, then pull the trigger.

I'm not saying I'm dying to trade him. But he's an obvious trade chip, the NHL roster needs to be upgraded, and the Devils already have a surplus of defensemen that you'd want to give offensive minutes to.

 

[bossram]

I didn’t know Dumoulin was that sheltered in Seattle (classic 90’s comedy!).

View attachment 846352
Yep, that’s sheltered lol. This is also borderline abusive to Oleksiak & Borgen.

Pittsburgh in 2022-23
View attachment 846378

Yeah, Marino had it tougher both seasons, as did Bahl this year.

View attachment 846364
View attachment 846365

Thanks for adding the additional charts.

Yes, I think Bahl's performance given his usage was admirable, especially at 23 years old. I don't want to give up on him lightly.

I have less than zero interest in Dumoulin. Guy can't play anything above butter soft minutes at this point.

I am a Seamus Casey fan but this fan base heavily overrates him.

As most fan bases do with their prospects. A Sam Girard-esque career would be a very good outcome. And that is in no way an insult.

 

[Guadana]

I didn’t know Dumoulin was that sheltered in Seattle (classic 90’s comedy!).

View attachment 846352
Yep, that’s sheltered lol. This is also borderline abusive to Oleksiak & Borgen.

Pittsburgh in 2022-23
View attachment 846378

Yeah, Marino had it tougher both seasons, as did Bahl this year.

View attachment 846364
View attachment 846365

So you tell me that for the same TOI Dumolin was great for his role and Bahl was bad for his bigger role and worser year ago on a much better team? Thanks, I need better defenseman for lesser role. It’s Dumolin.

 

[My3Sons]

Numbers don't lie? Here are the numbers. Dumoulin was:
- 6th among regular SEA defensemen in ATOI (16:55)
- Played the 2nd lowest minutes proportion of minutes against "Elite" competition per PuckIQ (26% of ice time).
- 53% xG (highest among Seattle defenseman!)

Dumoulin had good results in pretty much the most sheltered role you could possibly give him. I have no idea what you're talking about with Marino doing better last year in a "lesser" role. He was absolutely buried last season with DZ starts and constantly facing top competition. It's clear you don't know what you're talking about there.

Last season Dumoulin was:
- 3rd among regular PIT defensemen in ATOI (20:38)
- Played the most minutes against elite competition on the team (30.4%)
- 50% xG (last among PIT defenseman!)

So we can see, in a tough minutes role, Dumoulin performed quite badly, ranking last in xG%. Compare that to Bahl this season:
- 5th in ATOI among regular Devils defensemen (17:23)
- Yet 2nd highest proportion of minutes against Elite competition (36.2%)
- 52% xG (4th among regular NJ defensemen)

Bahl performed better in a tougher role than Dumoulin did last season (more of his minutes were against Elite competition). Dumoulin's results are better this year, but he's playing a very sheltered role.

And now I see you are backtracking on Casey's impact. Let's be clear: You do not expect Casey to play at a 1D calibre level in the playoffs next season, as you said before, because that is the impact Byram had in his 20 year old season. So you admit that you do not think he will be a Byram-level upgrade.

You could make your point without the “you don’t know what you are talking about” part. It doesn’t further the discussion that is very informative to those of us that are admittedly too lazy to look this stuff up.

 

[Brooklyndevil]

Junior and College level production are far from the be all end all when projecting how a player will play at the NHL level. Luke had elite physical tools which makes for a much easier transition to the NHL level. Ty Smith was a much more productive WHLer than Kaiden Guhle, but one guy had clearly better physical traits and a much more defined role vs a player that was great offensively at a level that more suited his skillset. Same for Juraj Slafkovsky vs Joakim Kemell in Liiga. And that's not to say Casey can't become a good NHL player but I do think fans tend to overhype some of these junior or college level players based solely on stats.

I'd value him over Holtz but there's still a big gap between Holtz and untouchable/Blue Chip and I think Casey is firmly in that gap of players.

I agree about Holtz. I actually like the kid. He’s been improving every year. But he’s still redundant in the sense that he’s another small skilled forward. I know some want Mercer gone, but one bad year out of 3, isn’t enough for me to give up on the kid. His start hurt him. However, he’s a perfect 3rd liner who never gets injured. Bahl I’m disappointed in. He’s a big strong kid that isn’t physical enough and I believe his hockey IQ isn’t very high. Don’t know much about Casey, but do we really need another offensive defenseman? I think Bahl and Holtz are most likely gone. I know they’re on the cheap, but are valuable assets.

 

[Bcap88]