Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part IV

[NjDevsRR]

Yeah, I'm not trading Casey unless someone legit is coming back to NJ. People worrying about the offensive side are overreacting to a bad year of our players besides the studs all having down years + Fitz screwing the pooch with going heavier instead of committing to a speed demon roster after getting thumped by Carolina. Casey helps with the latter, if he was a Bahl build, they'd be a better argument for a move since you could trade him essentially to beef up the roster in another way or acquire the goalie you want.

Still top 10 in scoring, even with all the injuries. With all the players being hobbled. Players being traded. Players vanishing. Etc…

Shows the talent.

Dallas second? They really are a sleeper team.

 

[bossram]

The thing is that prospects like Casey should only be moved for difference makers. Either borderline top line forward or top pairing defenders.

With how tight the Devils cap situation may look soon trying to re-up Luke, Nemec, and Mercer while trying to add around them, we can’t really afford another Meier and a 7+ million dollar cap hit that comes with it.

We would need to look at some cost certainty and try to poach players on good contracts. Those are few and far between and generally teams don’t like to move those guys. Matheson is the only name I can think of where I would be able to stomach moving Casey because of his ability, play style being a fit here, and then his contract.

Again that has to be weighed against Casey being on his ELC when we will need ELC players too.

Re: bolded, yes. I agree. I'm not suggesting moving him for like Ben Chiarot or some other dumb move. I suggested Marcus Pettersson as the trade target and, IMO, he is a top-pairing calibre player. I don't think his extension would come in the $7M range either.

I understand trying to acquire a player with cost-certainty (like they did with Marino) in this kind of trade. I think that would be ideal. Matheson is a big no no no no though. He is legitimately bad defensively. He only has the counting stats he does because MTL force feeds him all the offensive minutes and PP time. Similar to part of my argument for using Casey as a trade chip, the Devils already have a lot of defensemen competing for those prime offensive minutes. What they need is a guy that can handle tough competition and DZ starts.

 

[Brooklyndevil]

Yeah, I'm not trading Casey unless someone legit is coming back to NJ. People worrying about the offensive side are overreacting to a bad year of our players besides the studs all having down years + Fitz screwing the pooch with going heavier instead of committing to a speed demon roster after getting thumped by Carolina. Casey helps with the latter, if he was a Bahl build, they'd be a better argument for a move since you could trade him essentially to beef up the roster in another way or acquire the goalie you want.

If we got heavier it certainly didn’t help with our grit. Playing pond hockey may be exciting, however, if we don’t get tougher to play against and get better defensively, we’ll never win a championship in the near future.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I'm talking about how those guys were thought of when they were traded (Hagel, Coleman and Lehkonen were all seen as middle six players at the time they were traded).

Casey is a very good prospect but I don't view him as a blue chip prospect. Zeev Buium has better production, more translatable game to the NHL and is two years younger and he might not even be a top 10 pick in a relatively weak draft. If Casey is a Blue chip prospect than there's a ton of blue chip prospects around the league.

His production is also nearly identical to Luke’s while having better advanced stats defensively. His game looks like it will translate very well to the next level. He doesn’t have the explosive speed Luke has but he’s unbelievably shifty. He’ll be a transition machine.

I’d be much more wary about moving him than Holtz, who might even have more value around the league because of his draft status and some NHL production. I could see us losing a Casey deal badly.

 

[bossram]

His production is also nearly identical to Luke’s while having better advanced stats defensively. His game looks like it will translate very well to the next level. He doesn’t have the explosive speed Luke has but he’s unbelievably shifty. He’ll be a transition machine.

I’d be much more wary about moving him than Holtz, who might even have more value around the league because of his draft status and some NHL production. I could see us losing a Casey deal badly.

My unpopular opinion is that I think Casey's most likely outcome is a Sam Girard-esque career path/level.

That's not meant as an insult. Girard is a top-four defenseman. But I don't see Casey as an untradeable, can't miss prospect. Like it or not, NHL rosters can only have so many purely offensively-inclined defensemen on the roster, and the Devils already have guys to take on those offensive minutes.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Still top 10 in scoring, even with all the injuries. With all the players being hobbled. Players being traded. Players vanishing. Etc…

Shows the talent.

View attachment 846028

Dallas second? They really are a sleeper team.

I think Dallas v Carolina is the final tbh

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

I'm talking about how those guys were thought of when they were traded (Hagel, Coleman and Lehkonen were all seen as middle six players at the time they were traded).

Casey is a very good prospect but I don't view him as a blue chip prospect. Zeev Buium has better production, more translatable game to the NHL and is two years younger and he might not even be a top 10 pick in a relatively weak draft. If Casey is a Blue chip prospect than there's a ton of blue chip prospects around the league.

It does seem like there’s a major increase in points produced by Dmen prospects. Maybe due to better PP tactics, additionally my theory is this generation has been using composite sticks from peewee and can generate incredible shot power from minor wrist movements.

In any case it does seem like every team has a dman prospect putting up major points in the lower levels with some sort of question marks re: how it will translate.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

My unpopular opinion is that I think Casey's most likely outcome is a Sam Girard-esque career path/level.

That's not meant as an insult. Girard is a top-four defenseman. But I don't see Casey as an untradeable, can't miss prospect. Like it or not, NHL rosters can only have so many purely offensively-inclined defensemen on the roster, and the Devils already have guys to take on those offensive minutes.

I’ll put my EA NHL GM hat on and say the best way to build this team up would be to let Dougie cook next year on PP1 and rack up the points, let Casey season in Utica, and then send Dougie somewhere for the PK Subban return (we may have to eat a small portion of the deal). That frees up a ton of cash to address other areas and by that point Luke and Nemec are likely 25+ minute monsters.

 

[Devs3cups]

Awesome player. Love him. Weird that his D number is so low, when all his numbers are so high in the category.

 

[Guadana]

Dumoulin was abysmal last season with PIT. With SEA, they've moved him into a 3rd pair role and his results look better - albeit SEA is a low-event team in the first place, so there's relatively little happening and that kind of role is easier to "look good" defensively.

I think he is a disaster waiting to happen if you promote him back into a hard-minutes top-four player.

What is the difference between "Byram level upgrade" and "Byram level prospect"? Do you think Casey is going to play at a 1D calibre level in the playoffs next year in his 20 year-old season, as Byram did in his?

He played second-third pair time. Numbers dont lie. This is what we exactly need over Bahl. His abysmals year ago was on the level with Hamilton, Siegs and Dougie this year. We just need to fix our defensive depth for reasonable compensation and use three strong pair. Thats is exactly what Dumolin will bring. Marino was great in lesser role, and now he is on the "abysmal" level of last year Dumolin. Do you feel something similar?

Byram level upgrade is a "talented rookie with upside and freshness" for limited role(in our case) but with skills to annoy opponents. Overall Byram was good with the puck and played second pair role, we need from Casey to play third pair role. We can debate about semantics, but Casey is very talented player with results and skills and we dont have a lot in the system of that. Roster isnt done yet short and long term, Dougie played much lesser games then he should. We played "full season" of Smith-DeSimone-Foote on the right side. Its better to save talented player who will cost peanuts for cap hit. Trading young talented players is a classic recipe for limiting the potential of the team. Again - only if the trade is for long term control player.

 

[Lou Bloom]

His production is also nearly identical to Luke’s while having better advanced stats defensively. His game looks like it will translate very well to the next level. He doesn’t have the explosive speed Luke has but he’s unbelievably shifty. He’ll be a transition machine.

I’d be much more wary about moving him than Holtz, who might even have more value around the league because of his draft status and some NHL production. I could see us losing a Casey deal badly.

Junior and College level production are far from the be all end all when projecting how a player will play at the NHL level. Luke had elite physical tools which makes for a much easier transition to the NHL level. Ty Smith was a much more productive WHLer than Kaiden Guhle, but one guy had clearly better physical traits and a much more defined role vs a player that was great offensively at a level that more suited his skillset. Same for Juraj Slafkovsky vs Joakim Kemell in Liiga. And that's not to say Casey can't become a good NHL player but I do think fans tend to overhype some of these junior or college level players based solely on stats.

I'd value him over Holtz but there's still a big gap between Holtz and untouchable/Blue Chip and I think Casey is firmly in that gap of players.

 

[Lou Bloom]

It does seem like there’s a major increase in points produced by Dmen prospects. Maybe due to better PP tactics, additionally my theory is this generation has been using composite sticks from peewee and can generate incredible shot power from minor wrist movements.

In any case it does seem like every team has a dman prospect putting up major points in the lower levels with some sort of question marks re: how it will translate.

I haven't checked the numbers but it does seem like offense is up across the board as far as NA junior leagues and college is concerned.

 

[TrufleShufle]

Awesome player. Love him. Weird that his D number is so low, when all his numbers are so high in the category.

I would imagine a lot of that has to do with who he is matched up against, and with the absence of Hughes and Mcleod, he for long stretches was tasked with all the roles.

 

[Devils731]

Awesome player. Love him. Weird that his D number is so low, when all his numbers are so high in the category.

I think almost all the Devils forwards have bad defensive metrics this season; even if they’ve had better metrics in prior seasons.

It does seem like the way the played this year affected everyone negatively.

 

[bossram]

I’ll put my EA NHL GM hat on and say the best way to build this team up would be to let Dougie cook next year on PP1 and rack up the points, let Casey season in Utica, and then send Dougie somewhere for the PK Subban return (we may have to eat a small portion of the deal). That frees up a ton of cash to address other areas and by that point Luke and Nemec are likely 25+ minute monsters.

Preaching to the choir. I've been mentioning moving Dougie as early as last summer. He's not the fleetest of foot to begin with, and if he loses another step, he could go down the path of Brent Seabrook real quick. But I don't think Fitz/the org will remotely consider this, so my proposals do not really have this in mind.

Regardless, the Devils still need a defensive upgrade on the blueline, Dougie or not.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Junior and College level production are far from the be all end all when projecting how a player will play at the NHL level. Luke had elite physical tools which makes for a much easier transition to the NHL level. Ty Smith was a much more productive WHLer than Kaiden Guhle, but one guy had clearly better physical traits and a much more defined role vs a player that was great offensively at a level that more suited his skillset. Same for Juraj Slafkovsky vs Joakim Kemell in Liiga. And that's not to say Casey can't become a good NHL player but I do think fans tend to overhype some of these junior or college level players based solely on stats.

I'd value him over Holtz but there's still a big gap between Holtz and untouchable/Blue Chip and I think Casey is firmly in that gap of players.

I think people put far too much emphasis on literally 1 or 2 inches of height. His latest measurements from the team USA website have him at 5-10 178. Andy Greene was one of the better shutdown Ds of his era at 5-11 190 and size is becoming less important in this era.

Nemec is an inch maybe 2 inches shorter than Luke and is far more sturdy.

 

[Devils731]

I think people put far too much emphasis on literally 1 or 2 inches of height. His latest measurements from the team USA website have him at 5-10 178. Andy Greene was one of the better shutdown Ds of his era at 5-11 190 and size is becoming less important in this era.

Nemec is an inch maybe 2 inches shorter than Luke and is far more sturdy.

How thick his thighs are and how high his waist is would probably tell us more about his ability to win physical battles than his height does.

 

[NjDevsRR]

Marty St Louis and Bratt are players that show you that size doesn’t matter if you are built and they were/are BUILT. And are able to bounce off defenders along the boards.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Awesome player. Love him. Weird that his D number is so low, when all his numbers are so high in the category.

Turnovers are creeping up in his game a bit but it's on that board system shit where the forward or dman just chucks around the boards into the other team's skates. Nico had 2-3 turnovers last night that led to knee buckling shifts v the Rags.

 

[Lou Bloom]

I think people put far too much emphasis on literally 1 or 2 inches of height. His latest measurements from the team USA website have him at 5-10 178. Andy Greene was one of the better shutdown Ds of his era at 5-11 190 and size is becoming less important in this era.

Nemec is an inch maybe 2 inches shorter than Luke and is far more sturdy.

Where did I ever say him being 5-10 is a death nail for him as a prospect?

 

[Guadana]

Still top 10 in scoring, even with all the injuries. With all the players being hobbled. Players being traded. Players vanishing. Etc…

Shows the talent.

View attachment 846028

Dallas second? They really are a sleeper team.

Dallas prefer to save their first round picks and their second round picks.
10 second round picks and 12 first round picks in the last 11 years. There were more second and first round picks before that.
They drafted Johnston and Stankoven by their late first and late second round picks (23, 47) in 2021. They drafted Bourque by late 30 pick in 2020(he is destroying AHL).
They drafted very well in 2017 not by only 3 but by their 26 and 39 picks.
Some picks were misses but this is how big amount of picks and good scouting are working.

 

[bossram]

He played second-third pair time. Numbers dont lie. This is what we exactly need over Bahl. His abysmals year ago was on the level with Hamilton, Siegs and Dougie this year. We just need to fix our defensive depth for reasonable compensation and use three strong pair. Thats is exactly what Dumolin will bring. Marino was great in lesser role, and now he is on the "abysmal" level of last year Dumolin. Do you feel something similar?

Byram level upgrade is a "talented rookie with upside and freshness" for limited role(in our case) but with skills to annoy opponents. Overall Byram was good with the puck and played second pair role, we need from Casey to play third pair role. We can debate about semantics, but Casey is very talented player with results and skills and we dont have a lot in the system of that. Roster isnt done yet short and long term, Dougie played much lesser games then he should. We played "full season" of Smith-DeSimone-Foote on the right side. Its better to save talented player who will cost peanuts for cap hit. Trading young talented players is a classic recipe for limiting the potential of the team. Again - only if the trade is for long term control player.

Numbers don't lie? Here are the numbers. Dumoulin was:
- 6th among regular SEA defensemen in ATOI (16:55)
- Played the 2nd lowest minutes proportion of minutes against "Elite" competition per PuckIQ (26% of ice time).
- 53% xG (highest among Seattle defenseman!)

Dumoulin had good results in pretty much the most sheltered role you could possibly give him. I have no idea what you're talking about with Marino doing better last year in a "lesser" role. He was absolutely buried last season with DZ starts and constantly facing top competition. It's clear you don't know what you're talking about there.

Last season Dumoulin was:
- 3rd among regular PIT defensemen in ATOI (20:38)
- Played the most minutes against elite competition on the team (30.4%)
- 50% xG (last among PIT defenseman!)

So we can see, in a tough minutes role, Dumoulin performed quite badly, ranking last in xG%. Compare that to Bahl this season:
- 5th in ATOI among regular Devils defensemen (17:23)
- Yet 2nd highest proportion of minutes against Elite competition (36.2%)
- 52% xG (4th among regular NJ defensemen)

Bahl performed better in a tougher role than Dumoulin did last season (more of his minutes were against Elite competition). Dumoulin's results are better this year, but he's playing a very sheltered role.

And now I see you are backtracking on Casey's impact. Let's be clear: You do not expect Casey to play at a 1D calibre level in the playoffs next season, as you said before, because that is the impact Byram had in his 20 year old season. So you admit that you do not think he will be a Byram-level upgrade.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Where did I ever say him being 5-10 is a death knell for him as a prospect?

You didn’t. But the reason why you’re questioning if he’ll translate to the next level is almost entirely due to size. He checks almost every other box. If he was 6 foot 180 are we talking about if he’ll translate?

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

The NHL is lending itself to smaller and more skilled guys now anyway, I have next to no worries that Casey will translate. I'm not trading him for a lottery ticket at forward for more size or a Coleman esque prospect. It sucks that even has to be discussed with how the Stillman pick was botched over a guy like Stankoven

 

[Lou Bloom]

You didn’t. But the reason why you’re questioning if he’ll translate to the next level is almost entirely due to size. He checks almost every other box. If he was 6 foot 180 are we talking about if he’ll translate?

He also isn't a great straight line skater (Very shifty when you mix his edgework + stick handling but not fast in a straight line), his defense is good at the college level but it's certainly fair to question how well an undersized, not elite skating defenseman will hold up at NHL level where his speed isn't nearly as effective as it will be at the college level.

And again, I said he's a good prospect (who would go 1st round round in a 2022 redraft) but there's a big difference between that and being a blue chip prospect. Like I brought up before Zeev Buium has better production, more translatable NHL game and is two years younger and is a borderline top 10 guy in this year's draft class, how many defensive prospects are you taking before you get to Seamus Casey?