Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part IV

[Guadana]

Numbers don't lie? Here are the numbers. Dumoulin was:
- 6th among regular SEA defensemen in ATOI (16:55)
- Played the 2nd lowest minutes proportion of minutes against "Elite" competition per PuckIQ (26% of ice time).
- 53% xG (highest among Seattle defenseman!)

Dumoulin had good results in pretty much the most sheltered role you could possibly give him. I have no idea what you're talking about with Marino doing better last year in a "lesser" role. He was absolutely buried last season with DZ starts and constantly facing top competition. It's clear you don't know what you're talking about there.

Last season Dumoulin was:
- 3rd among regular PIT defensemen in ATOI (20:38)
- Played the most minutes against elite competition on the team (30.4%)
- 50% xG (last among PIT defenseman!)

So we can see, in a tough minutes role, Dumoulin performed quite badly, ranking last in xG%. Compare that to Bahl this season:
- 5th in ATOI among regular Devils defensemen (17:23)
- Yet 2nd highest proportion of minutes against Elite competition (36.2%)
- 52% xG (4th among regular NJ defensemen)

Bahl performed better in a tougher role than Dumoulin did last season (more of his minutes were against Elite competition). Dumoulin's results are better this year, but he's playing a very sheltered role.

And now I see you are backtracking on Casey's impact. Let's be clear: You do not expect Casey to play at a 1D calibre level in the playoffs next season, as you said before, because that is the impact Byram had in his 20 year old season. So you admit that you do not think he will be a Byram-level upgrade.

He is borderline 4-5 D with 30+ games 5 on 5 TOI. And played 1-20 SH TOI
And he is
5 on 5 Dumolin is 4 best in xGA per league.
He is top 10/top 15 in CA, SA, FA per league.
He is second best in HDCA per league.

Everything about his previous season is working for our actual defensemen. Marino, Siegs, Hamilton. And after that we have more actual info.
Bahl has 2.93 xGA this season, Dumolin had 2.63 xGA previous season.
Sorry, but you narrative doesnt work.
We need him to replace Bahl for the same role with better deffensive depth team. For 4-5 D role. And he will cost less than Casey. So you like it or not Dumolin is better for the same role as Bahl for this team, because we need Bahl to be third pair defenseman who can play second pair. Bahl cant - he is worser with his xGA. And it was year ago, now Dumolins numbers are better like we see. Last year metrics of Bahl are worser than this year metrics of Dumolin(nothing surprising here). You are trying to compare worser non-actual stats of Dumolin with better non-actual stats of Bahl, but even there they are not in favor of Bahl everywhere. Last year Devils were much better overall than this year Seattle, same for this year Devils and mostly last year pens.

And the most importantly. Bahl played 15-05 TOI 5 on 5 THIS SEASON.
And Dumolin played 15-04. "Sheltered role".

Its not a debate between them. Its Dumolin over Bahl easily. And for the same role and same time Dumolin would be much better.

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

If Fitz is going big game hunting for Jusse Saros, then he may get a LHD as part of the deal. Lauzon from predators would bring some much needed snarl to Devils. He is among NHL leader in hits and can clear the crease in front of our goalie.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

If Fitz is going big game hunting for Jusse Saros, then he may get a LHD as part of the deal. Lauzon from predators would bring some much needed snarl to Devils. He is among NHL leader in hits and can clear the crease in front of our goalie.

One less guy to hurt Jack considering he already did it once on Seattle

 

[Lou Bloom]

The NHL is lending itself to smaller and more skilled guys now anyway, I have next to no worries that Casey will translate. I'm not trading him for a lottery ticket at forward for more size or a Coleman esque prospect. It sucks that even has to be discussed with how the Stillman pick was botched over a guy like Stankoven

And the opposite occurred when they chose Ty Smith over K'Andre Miller. I don't even have a bias against smaller players, I was very high on players like Michkov, Benson, Stenberg, Moore and Gulyayev from last years draft class. I even was higher on Casey than where he was drafted, but to act like he's a blue chip prospect who should only be traded for elite level players is crazy.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

And the opposite occurred when they chose Ty Smith over K'Andre Miller. I don't even have a bias against smaller players, I was very high on players like Michkov, Benson, Stenberg, Moore and Gulyayev from last years draft class. I even was higher on Casey than where he was drafted, but to act like he's a blue chip prospect who should only be traded for elite level players is crazy.

Smith was a better prospect than Miller by a country mile and Miller isn't even that great now anyway to begin with anyway. As much as this fanbase bitches about Luke, they'd be in shambles with how Miller plays. How Luke makes mistakes now is what Miller is consistently doing at 24. And he's probably our best prospect left, it's fine if fans want to coddle him. I don't think franchises should coddle prospects like fans do but it's a subjective thing to argue about.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Smith was a better prospect than Miller by a country mile and Miller isn't even that great now anyway to begin with anyway. As much as this fanbase bitches about Luke, they'd be in shambles with how Miller plays. How Luke makes mistakes now is what Miller is consistently doing at 24. And he's probably our best prospect left, it's fine if fans want to coddle him. I don't think franchises should coddle prospects like fans do but it's a subjective thing to argue about.

Your point was chasing physical tools over production = bad. My counter example (of which I could find many but chose one relevant to the Devils) was K'Andre Miller vs Ty Smith. The Same K'Andre Miller that's playing nearly 22 mins on the team with the most points in the NHL vs Ty Smith who hasn't even played an NHL game this season.

And that's not even to say Physical tools > production, the point is not to have this linear mindset that all that matters when evaluating/projecting prospects is looking at stats and to ignore the totality of the picture.

 

[glenwo2]

If Fitz is going big game hunting for Jusse Saros, then he may get a LHD as part of the deal. Lauzon from predators would bring some much needed snarl to Devils. He is among NHL leader in hits and can clear the crease in front of our goalie.

What will Fitz need to give up for both then?

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Your point was chasing physical tools over production = bad. My counter example (of which I could find many but chose one relevant to the Devils) was K'Andre Miller vs Ty Smith. The Same K'Andre Miller that's playing nearly 22 mins on the team with the most points in the NHL vs Ty Smith who hasn't even played an NHL game this season.

And that's not even to say Physical tools > production, the point is not to have this linear mindset that all that matters when evaluating/projecting prospects is looking at stats and to ignore the totality of the picture.

Saying that the league is moving towards guys like Casey =/= me wanting just those guys

 

[Lou Bloom]

Saying that the league is moving towards guys like Casey =/= me wanting just those guys

Where did I say anything about you wanting only smaller players?

 

[RNCDevil]

The NHL is lending itself to smaller and more skilled guys now anyway, I have next to no worries that Casey will translate. I'm not trading him for a lottery ticket at forward for more size or a Coleman esque prospect. It sucks that even has to be discussed with how the Stillman pick was botched over a guy like Stankoven

Is it? The last 10 cup winners...Maybe the Blackhawks? Maybe early Pens Letang/Crosby/Hagelin/Bonino/Sheary...

But a lot of fast, skill, and size with Caps, Lightning, Vegas, and STL. I don't think the Devils needs goons but as Fitz said, you can't have all forwards that just do fly-by checks.

 

[RNCDevil]

...oooh I actually found an article about it (a little dated):

How much does size matter when trying to win the Stanley Cup?

Can a Stanley Cup winner be distilled into a repeatable recipe? Is there a set list of ingredients a contending team can seek out and sprinkle into one pot every season to ensure a deep playoff run?

www.yardbarker.com

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Is it? The last 10 cup winners...Maybe the Blackhawks? Maybe early Pens Letang/Crosby/Hagelin/Bonino/Sheary...

But a lot of fast, skill, and size with Caps, Lightning, Vegas, and STL. I don't think the Devils needs goons but as Fitz said, you can't have all forwards that just do fly-by checks.

Once again, I'm not disagreeing, I'm just saying there's nothing wrong with your stars being those smaller stature players. The bottom 6 forwards are legit not producing or do anything at last year's clip which is hurting this team. The issue also is their top 6 guys are really not nasty to play against, it's just Timo for the most part. All the teams you mentioned had a guy in their top 6 who could legit be an annoying nuisance to teams even if they're not scoring. Timo v NYR needs to be the Timo we need to get for the duration of his contract and he's slowly getting back to that form late in the year.

 

[bossram]

He is borderline 4-5 D with 30+ games 5 on 5 TOI. And played 1-20 SH TOI
And he is
5 on 5 Dumolin is 4 best in xGA per league.
He is top 10/top 15 in CA, SA, FA per league.
He is second best in HDCA per league.

Everything about his previous season is working for our actual defensemen. Marino, Siegs, Hamilton. And after that we have more actual info.
Bahl has 2.93 xGA this season, Dumolin had 2.63 xGA previous season.
Sorry, but you narrative doesnt work.
We need him to replace Bahl for the same role with better deffensive depth team. For 4-5 D role. And he will cost less than Casey. So you like it or not Dumolin is better for the same role as Bahl for this team, because we need Bahl to be third pair defenseman who can play second pair. Bahl cant - he is worser with his xGA. And it was year ago, now Dumolins numbers are better like we see. Last year metrics of Bahl are worser than this year metrics of Dumolin(nothing surprising here). You are trying to compare worser non-actual stats of Dumolin with better non-actual stats of Bahl, but even there they are not in favor of Bahl everywhere. Last year Devils were much better overall than this year Seattle, same for this year Devils and mostly last year pens.

And the most importantly. Bahl played 15-05 TOI 5 on 5 THIS SEASON.
And Dumolin played 15-04. "Sheltered role".

Its not a debate between them. Its Dumolin over Bahl easily. And for the same role and same time Dumolin would be much better.

1. You're using raw numbers. You're not at all considering that SEA is a low event team (so all their players will have better raw xGA/60), nor are you considering role and usage.

2. It is indisputable Dumoulin was used as a bottom-pair player and played weak, sheltered competition. I provided the numbers. He performed much worse last season, when playing in a more difficult role. Again, I provided the numbers. Bahl literally played more difficult competition than him.

3. Casey will be coming on an ELC. Now you're comparing Casey to Dumoulin for some reason, saying Casey will be cheaper. This makes no sense at all.

4. It's extremely difficult to even tell what you're saying, given your English.

 

[devilsblood]

The NHL is lending itself to smaller and more skilled guys now anyway, I have next to no worries that Casey will translate. I'm not trading him for a lottery ticket at forward for more size or a Coleman esque prospect. It sucks that even has to be discussed with how the Stillman pick was botched over a guy like Stankoven

But how many of those smaller skilled players are strong defensive defenseman?

Nevermind we are locked in with RHD for the foreseeable. I know things can change, but the fit doesn't look great, even if he is a very good looking prospect.

 

[bossram]

The NHL is lending itself to smaller and more skilled guys now anyway, I have next to no worries that Casey will translate. I'm not trading him for a lottery ticket at forward for more size or a Coleman esque prospect. It sucks that even has to be discussed with how the Stillman pick was botched over a guy like Stankoven

Who is suggesting trading him for a prospect?

I would only include Casey in a deal for a top-pairing defenseman.

And as I and other have said, the offensive minutes for defensemen will be in short supply in NJ, with Nemec, Luke, and Dougie here long-term.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

But how many of those smaller skilled players are strong defensive defenseman?

Nevermind we are locked in with RHD for the foreseeable. I know things can change, but the fit doesn't look great, even if he is a very good looking prospect.

After this year, Marino has to be looked at with more scrutiny. He's not the future lock we thought he was after ending the 22-23 season. The right side in 2-3 years could easily be Nemec pair 1 all developed and the 2 way stud we think he's gonna be, Dougie older but a PP merchant while also allowing for sheltered offensive mins with his age, Casey breaking in slowly on the bottom pair. And that's if Marino sucks. If Marino bounces back, I'd be more willing to trade Casey in that case (lol).

Who is suggesting trading him for a prospect?

I would only include Casey in a deal for a top-pairing defenseman.

And as I and other have said, the offensive minutes for defensemen will be in short supply in NJ, with Nemec, Luke, and Dougie here long-term.

Sure, I'd trade him for a LHD but why not go after someone like Hanifin in UFA if he makes it there first. Granted, the rumors of him wanting Florida are rampant and probably accurate. As for the other points you make, like I said above, Marino is the entire wild card to the whole defense. If he sucks ass, then RHD is still an issue and you don't just trade Casey. If Marino is good, then it alleviates the pressure somewhat on the RHD and you can look at a better Siegs replacement

 

[Triumph]

Who is suggesting trading him for a prospect?

I would only include Casey in a deal for a top-pairing defenseman.

And as I and other have said, the offensive minutes for defensemen will be in short supply in NJ, with Nemec, Luke, and Dougie here long-term.

I don't think Casey moves the needle in a deal for a top-pairing defenseman. The same concerns you brought up with him is exactly what NHL decision makers would think, if not worse.

 

[devilsblood]

After this year, Marino has to be looked at with more scrutiny. He's not the future lock we thought he was after ending the 22-23 season. The right side in 2-3 years could easily be Nemec pair 1 all developed and the 2 way stud we think he's gonna be, Dougie older but a PP merchant while also allowing for sheltered offensive mins with his age, Casey breaking in slowly on the bottom pair. And that's if Marino sucks. If Marino bounces back, I'd be more willing to trade Casey in that case (lol).

If Marino doesn't rebound to the strong defender he was last year, then we need to find another defensive minded d-man for the right side.

I'm stereotyping here as it looks like Casey is a small offensive minded d-man, but I just don't think he is going to fit the bill.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

If Marino doesn't rebound to the strong defender he was last year, then we need to find another defensive minded d-man for the right side.

I'm stereotyping here as it looks like Casey is a small offensive minded d-man, but I just don't think he is going to fit the bill.

I think we're underrating how good Nemec is gonna be on that side of the puck but yeah probably. I really wanted Forsling but Florida being a good franchise lately locked him up. Gudas would be another decent/sneaky option if we want a dman with a ton of snarl on the right side. I trust Fitz way more on that side of the puck that I do on the forward side especially in depth adds. The top 4 is virtually set anyway for the next 5-10 years

 

[Bcap88]

It is going to be tough to get saros and pay him along with finding wingers to fill out jacks line, a defensemen and fill out the bottom 6

You have at least a top line of hischier Bratt and Meier locked in.

 

[Guadana]

1. You're using raw numbers. You're not at all considering that SEA is a low event team (so all their players will have better raw xGA/60), nor are you considering role and usage.

2. It is indisputable Dumoulin was used as a bottom-pair player and played weak, sheltered competition. I provided the numbers. He performed much worse last season, when playing in a more difficult role. Again, I provided the numbers. Bahl literally played more difficult competition than him.

3. Casey will be coming on an ELC. Now you're comparing Casey to Dumoulin for some reason, saying Casey will be cheaper. This makes no sense at all.

4. It's extremely difficult to even tell what you're saying, given your English.

I beIieve people can compare 15-05 and 15-04 of ice time and the impact one the ice by numbers at least. Like one of the best in the league and not the best one, people can compare the level of the teams and where they are in the standings.

English take is fun. Thanks, it’s a perfect way to end the conversation.

 

[Emperoreddy]

I hate how long this offseason is going to be

 

[Bleedred]

I hate how long this offseason is going to be

On one hand I agree

On the other hand I wish it had already started. Watching the majority of these games has just been a chore and not at all pleasurable.

 

[MadDevil]

On one hand I agree

On the other hand I wish it had already started. Watching the majority of these games has just been a chore and not at all pleasurable.

Just do what I do and just watch the YT highlights. It's better for my blood pressure than getting angry and annoyed with the team going through the motions. If they don't give a shit anymore, I don't either.

 

[NJDevils17]

I am a Seamus Casey fan but this fan base heavily overrates him.