Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason edition

[None Shall Pass]

Holtz, Mercer, and Muk are going to be our 2017 Dallas 1st round.

 

[Guttersniped]

I thought I missed confirmation as I saw something on Twitter today. Just a simple question

NOTE: This is the tweet that started the rumor. McCagg is being a weirdo about Wright to Montreal and so I would wait for another source.



There won’t be a “confirmation” though.

 

[Csonked Out]

I still think the biggest change we need to make is at head coach. Ruff has no defensive structure and isn’t conducive to success with a young team

 

[Oneiro]

You know who had foot speed problems?
Jason Robertson.

He was a fantastic prospect in so many ways, a top half of the draft candidate, with only one flaw, but it was seen as a huge one. His skating was real slow so he fell to 39th.

Who knows how far he would have fallen if Dallas’ approach even then was “get the guy who projects for a lot of offense & we’ll worry about the other stuff later”.

There’s a myth that you can’t improve skating but it depends on what’s wrong and often if the player is bigger like Robertson added strength will help quite a bit. And the need for speed depends on the position, with wingers needing it the least.

Holtz had flaws coming in. He was a shooter/playmaker, not a play driver, so he’s center dependent and he tries to slow plays down to create (which is extremely hard to pull off at the highest levels) instead of playing with higher pace.

He’s skating needs to get better and he needs to get stronger but not every successful player is a burner in this league. There’s also different issues with skating (younger players who are slow vs flaws in skating technique,posture,etc).

I'm not actually writing any of these guys off yet. But, taking a contrarian stance for argument's sake, there aren't reasons to be critical from a process perspective?

Reaching on two guys with extra 1sts, possibly making other tools-first selections w/ McLeod, Holtz (again I know it's early). I liked the Smith pick and believe he can improve, but he's been surprisingly bad, considering who he was tauted to be (smart two way guy, neither of which has been the case).

Robertson is a player with 1) (as you noted) more going on for himself and possibly quite a lot more than Holtz and 2) exactly the kind of player you'd want to overlook skating for? I've made similar arguments (to a lesser extent) defending Foote - he's a sharp kid who's capable of mitigating his flaws - but I think you need quite a lot elsewhere to overlook skating.

And I'm not just a high offensive upside guy. It's that, when you have a cluster of talent and the waters are quite muddy, why make it harder on yourself? I understand not every pick is a likable slam dunk along the lines of Mercer and most picks are not going to solidify themselves two years in.

 

[mort4345]

How can anyone answer that question on this board?

Napoleon, like anyone could even know that...

 

[Devils731]

Robertson is a player with 1) (as you noted) more going on for himself and possibly quite a lot more than Holtz

I’m not saying you’re wrong but Holtz just had a comparable or better first AHL season than Robertson did and Holtz did it while a year younger.

If Robertson is a success story about drafting well then I have a hard time seeing how you can be iffy of Holtz in comparison as Holtz has a better pro career at the same age.

Wouldn’t Robertson be an example of needing to give a guy a few years after being drafted to find his NHL role? Instead we see people wanting to write Holtz off (while saying they aren’t) for only being a point per game as a 19/20 year old in the AHL.

 

[Guttersniped]

I'm not actually writing any of these guys off yet. But, taking a contrarian stance for argument's sake, there aren't reasons to be critical from a process perspective?

Reaching on two guys with extra 1sts, possibly making other tools-first selections w/ McLeod, Holtz (again I know it's early). I liked the Smith pick and believe he can improve, but he's been surprisingly bad, considering who he was tauted to be (smart two way guy, neither of which has been the case).

Robertson is a player with 1) (as you noted) more going on for himself and possibly quite a lot more than Holtz and 2) exactly the kind of player you'd want to overlook skating for? I've made similar arguments (to a lesser extent) defending Foote - he's a sharp kid who's capable of mitigating his flaws - but I think you need quite a lot elsewhere to overlook skating.

And I'm not just a high offensive upside guy. It's that, when you have a cluster of talent and the waters are quite muddy, why make it harder on yourself? I understand not every pick is a likable slam dunk along the lines of Mercer and most picks are not going to solidify themselves two years in.

I don’t get what you want, you aren’t a “high offensive upside guy”? What kind of players do you want, “high floor”? Just go by skating?

If Mercer was for sure “slam dunk” he wouldn’t have slipped to 20. Mercer’s skating wasn’t seen as strength at all, he wasn’t slow but he lacked explosiveness. Mercer is player who has been developing great since before the draft and keep that upward trajectory since.

We haven’t targeted offensive producers who are play drivers enough for my taste, but that comes from a mix of skills, not just skating. We’ll see what happens with this draft, Fitz might have learned from his first two drafts.

Before the 2020 draft I remember a poster saying that we for sure had to hit on all 3 of 1sts and all 3 players had to be top line/top pairing guys.

Not only was that a ridiculous ask, when you go for high end offensive guys you often risk busting even more. Both the “Boom” and the “Bust” are right there in the term.

I just don’t think skating is the end all or be all. McLeod’s selling point was his skating but he always skated to nowhere, even before his knee injury. Skating can be improved, strength helps a lot there.

Holtz has an elite shot, we got him score goals. His skating is ok, he needs to get stronger and improve his conditioning. I assume he’s working on that now. I don’t see how McLeod and Holtz are similar picks, McLeod is a moron who doesn’t see shit. If anything Holtz is overthinking things offensively, he sees a lot on the ice.

After watching Foote live in the AHL playoffs I came away pretty impressed, he’s progressed nicely. Big forwards develop slowly and he got hit by a double development whammy, he’s missed time due to both injury and COVID. I still think there’s something good there.

 

[RememberTheName]

You don’t understand my point because you’re lost in the one-sidedness of debates. It would do wonders for you to discover nuances and learn to discuss things.

It wasn’t a comparison of player’s in terms of two “bad skaters” Robertson’s skating was way worse.
What kind of skating do you think gets you knocked out the 1st round?

My point is you don’t only draft the top skaters in any section of the draft or you’ll lose out on good players.

I listed what Holtz’s flaws are, he has strengths too but his style of play is even more of struggle when we only create off the rush at a manic pace. I think people are wrong when they are flipping out over his skating so much. As I said, players, specifically wingers, don’t all have to be burners.

Jack Quinn isn’t fast and lacks explosiveness and his skating was rated lower than Holtz’s. Perfetti’s skating was seen as notably worse than both of theirs and is the reason he was so “Boom or Bust”. His skating made people question his ability to play in the NHL. You scout all aspects of a player, skating can get better.

He mentioned Stillman as a negative example too. Stillman’s problem isn’t subpar skating for me, it’s that he hasn’t shown any notable traits in a disappointing season other than a good motor.

While Perfetti was most definitely boom or bust because of his skating, I don't think a single person could have watched Jack Quinn and Alex Holtz and told you that Holtz was a better skater, and it has never been remotely close. Quinn's skating graded out at above average in almost every category (aside from a bit of an unorthodox looking stride) and he was showing rapid year-over-year improvements in his skating ability.

 

[Guttersniped]

While Perfetti was most definitely boom or bust because of his skating, I don't think a single person could have watched Jack Quinn and Alex Holtz and told you that Holtz was a better skater, and it has never been remotely close. Quinn's skating graded out at above average in almost every category (aside from a bit of an unorthodox looking stride) and he was showing rapid year-over-year improvements in his skating ability.

Not remotely close seems a bit of an exaggeration.

How much people knocked Quinn for his quirky stride & posture might have affected the grading.

I’m not debating against Quinn, I’m pushing back against that new argument that Holtz’s issue is his skating and people arguing that it was a glaring problem since the draft.

Not to put words in your mouth but your issues with him, as far as I can tell, were based around him not being a play driver. And that comes more from pace than skating.

And I think you can make a argument that he was not the greatest pick at #7 at the time because at best you’re getting a complimentary scoring winger in what was a deep forward draft. I was more into Jarvis than Quinn, but it’s still early.

 

[Devilsfan92]

I don't think Lindy Ruff is a coach to bring a cup to New Jersey, so what's his message?

 

[Guadana]

4 pages of “let’s root for Dallas”.

Hischier is a great two way center, L Hughes has Makar season in universit being two years younger, Fifth rounder Gritsyuk is a rookie of the year in KHL, Mukhamadullin is a potential top-4 D, Holtz spend great season for 19 yo boy in AHL, Okhotyuk was best defensive defenseman in OHL, the best in board battles, he has huge shot down upside, Jack is the most talented young forward in the league, Zetterlund with Foote(I know he was a part of the trade) and Thompson have potential to be nhlers. Daws was ok and he was drafted year before he did try himself in NHL. Bratt and Yegor are gold. Bastian is only fourth liner, but he is perfect fourth liner, that’s ok for second rounders, sometimes you have robertson, much more often you have nothing. And Smith svcks of course. And Mercer is great.
im ok with Castron and drafting.

Dallas did tremendous job on the draft in 2017, but they did, other teams not. New Jersey made right pick with Hischier, he is exactly what teams need from him now. We don’t need Petterson for Nico. Makar is a better pick in vacuum, he would be great here, but not on the level with Mckinnon. It’s a specific examples. there is a 29/30 chances(31 from 32 now), you will find a better team on the draft. The most important thing to be a better team through years. Castron made a good job on drafts. Devils we’re not perfect on the draft, but overall - it’s good. Zacha, Mcleod shouldnt be picked. That was Shero’s idiotic anti defensive vision. He isn’t our gm anymore.
Now Fitz should make a right pick with 2nd OA. find working goalie, and find new right coach with giving development job to Ruff - this or may be next season. Other things are complimentary.

 

[Sgt Brylin]

I still think the biggest change we need to make is at head coach. Ruff has no defensive structure and isn’t conducive to success with a young team

This is exactly why I want a change. It's easy to blame the assistants and goalies, but we were getting caved in and shelled all year. Even good goalies would have struggles behind our team defence last year, and that's on Ruff. People harp on about developing the kids and experience, but I'm convinced there's a dozen NHL assistants or junior/college/minor coaches out there that can do the same job as Ruff, but add a fresh breath to a stale organisation. We need to be looking for our own Jay Woodcroft or Jared Bednar, not yet another washed up carousel coach.

 

[glenwo2]

I don't think Lindy Ruff is a coach to bring a cup to New Jersey, so what's his message?

"Use 'Depends' undergarments; they're comfortable"?

 

[Devilsfan92]

"Use 'Depends' undergarments; they're comfortable"?

So is a muzzle.

 

[ninetyeight]

Well said by Guadana, just because one team hit the jackpot, one year, doesn't mean we did bad or that every other team did good too. Scouts can't see the future, they can't possibly know if someone is gonna be a breakthrough star if they haven't shown any indication for it pre-draft. To hold scouts accountable for not drafting guys like Henrik Zetterberg in the first round is just ignorant. If you never actually follow the draft and prospects pre-draft, you have no idea why a guy like Nolan Patrick goes #2 and Jason Robertson goes #39. You just expect our staff to end up with the best guys regardless what they've shown pre-draft.

Projecting players just isn't that simple, everyone develops at a different pace. Some people hit their ceiling early, some very late. Some players figure out the holes in their game, some never will. And there are tons of other small factors that go into it. Which team is a player drafted into, what kinda player development program do they have. Coaching. Team mates. Is the player put on the right league at the right time. For players coming overseas there are cultural adjustments and differences in the game. Some europeans will never quite figure out the NA style hockey, and some thrive there better than back in Europe.

Dallas hit the jackpot in 2017, but it's not like their scouting/drafting is perfect either. It's still early to say for the recent drafts, but here's their other years (from top100 picked players)

2018
#13 Ty Dellandrea - solid pick, 0.73ppg in the AHL, still no NHL experience so hard to say. The devils 2019 and 2020 selections already blow this guy away in terms of stats.

#44 Albin Erikson - still playing in europe, 4 goals in Liiga last season.

#75 Oskar Bäck - 0.35ppg in AHL

#100 Adam Mascherin - overager already sent to Europe.

2016
#25 Riley Tufte - 0.37ppg in AHL, already 24yo so major NHL breakout unlikely

#90 Fredik Karlström - 0.44ppg in AHL, similar to above.

2015
#12 Guryanov - decent NHLer, similar stats to Zacha.

#49 Roope Hintz - excellent pick, a real steal, close to a ppg guy.

2014
#14 Julius Honka - didn't have the tools to make it in NA, now sent back to Europe.

#45 Brett Pollock - never played a single game in the NHL, now plays in DEL

#75 Alex Peters - below average AHL player

 

[AfroThunder396]

Picking a strong exciting 6'4" goal-scoring winger over a boring but very competent 6'1" center because you're scared of fan backlash or because 'Nick Suzuki is good enough' is exactly the kind of thing Montreal would do.

 

[Normal Devil]

Picking a strong exciting 6'4" goal-scoring winger over a boring but very competent 6'1" center because you're scared of fan backlash or because 'Nick Suzuki is good enough' is exactly the kind of thing Montreal would do.

I won't cry if we wind up with Wright .. he's a stud. Slaf is probably the better fit for our situation, but given the durability issues of Jack and Nico a guy like Wright might end up spending most of his time in the Top 6 anyway.

 

[MauDevils]

If Montreal doesn't take Wright we better be sprinting up to the podium with the pick.

 

[Blender]

The Devils should turf Ruff and hire Andrew Brunette if we can. Insane that Florida cut him loose.

 

[Devils731]

He’s the CEO of Fanatics and I surmised his ownership interests were partially to allow him to promote Fanatics usage to the leagues.

Now that Fanatics is deeply embedded he can cash out with mission accomplished.

 

[None Shall Pass]

Let's crowd source the money to buy his shares.

Let's be legends.

 

[glenwo2]

I won't cry if we wind up with Wright .. he's a stud. Slaf is probably the better fit for our situation, but given the durability issues of Jack and Nico a guy like Wright might end up spending most of his time in the Top 6 anyway.

I would RAGE if we wind up trading the pick (which I seriously doubt happens)...

Devils are walking away from this year's draft with either Slaf or Wright in the organization.

PERIOD. (yes, I'm so confident that I am acting like this is already FACT)

 

[Saugus]

Picking a strong exciting 6'4" goal-scoring winger over a boring but very competent 6'1" center because you're scared of fan backlash or because 'Nick Suzuki is good enough' is exactly the kind of thing Montreal would do.

Honestly with all the hype around Slafkovsky now, they might get fan backlash no matter what they do. Crazy trade proposals for the #2 pick reek of a fanbase that wants to eat its cake and have it too, somehow ending up with both Slafkovsky and Wright. Since that won't happen, some portion of the fanbase is going to be disappointed either way.

 

[HBK27]

I would RAGE if we wind up trading the pick (which I seriously doubt happens)...

Devils are walking away from this year's draft with either Slaf or Wright in the organization.

PERIOD. (yes, I'm so confident that I am acting like this is already FACT)

I'm trying not to get myself too excited about the pick.

Felt really good about NJ taking Nico and Jack, as well as them grabbing Hughes if he slipped to #4 last year. I'm a bit more nervous about what's going to happen with this draft.

 

[Guttersniped]

Well said by Guadana, just because one team hit the jackpot, one year, doesn't mean we did bad or that every other team did good too. Scouts can't see the future, they can't possibly know if someone is gonna be a breakthrough star if they haven't shown any indication for it pre-draft. To hold scouts accountable for not drafting guys like Henrik Zetterberg in the first round is just ignorant. If you never actually follow the draft and prospects pre-draft, you have no idea why a guy like Nolan Patrick goes #2 and Jason Robertson goes #39. You just expect our staff to end up with the best guys regardless what they've shown pre-draft.

Projecting players just isn't that simple, everyone develops at a different pace. Some people hit their ceiling early, some very late. Some players figure out the holes in their game, some never will. And there are tons of other small factors that go into it. Which team is a player drafted into, what kinda player development program do they have. Coaching. Team mates. Is the player put on the right league at the right time. For players coming overseas there are cultural adjustments and differences in the game. Some europeans will never quite figure out the NA style hockey, and some thrive there better than back in Europe.

Dallas hit the jackpot in 2017, but it's not like their scouting/drafting is perfect either. It's still early to say for the recent drafts, but here's their other years (from top100 picked players)

2018
#13 Ty Dellandrea - solid pick, 0.73ppg in the AHL, still no NHL experience so hard to say. The devils 2019 and 2020 selections already blow this guy away in terms of stats.

#44 Albin Erikson - still playing in europe, 4 goals in Liiga last season.

#75 Oskar Bäck - 0.35ppg in AHL

#100 Adam Mascherin - overager already sent to Europe.

2016
#25 Riley Tufte - 0.37ppg in AHL, already 24yo so major NHL breakout unlikely

#90 Fredik Karlström - 0.44ppg in AHL, similar to above.

2015
#12 Guryanov - decent NHLer, similar stats to Zacha.

#49 Roope Hintz - excellent pick, a real steal, close to a ppg guy.

2014
#14 Julius Honka - didn't have the tools to make it in NA, now sent back to Europe.

#45 Brett Pollock - never played a single game in the NHL, now plays in DEL

#75 Alex Peters - below average AHL player

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