Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part II

[Forge]

Markstrom for anything less than the value of a first round pick and I’m good. Let’s get it done.

I don't think that that is likely to be feasible. The question is more or less how do you get to that value. I do not want to part with 10 in order to pay the value of markrstrom. Think that's bad process, even if you can get the value to work out (and to be fair, you can).

 

[Guttersniped]

Fewest goals against per 60 of any defenseman for Pittsburgh this season at Even Strength.

It was actually a very good 2 GA per 60 at ES . Last year he was at 2.3 on one of the best pairs in the league. He averaged 16:23 at ES this season and last year averaged 17:29 at ES

This year none of our regular Dmen were under Siegenthaler's 2.7 GA/60.

Fewer goals against are scored when Graves is on the ice.

Yeah, I’m not doing a deep dive on Graves but he lost his spot in the top 4 and was dropped to a bottom pair.



Graves’ 5v5 on Ice-Time
First two months (22 GP) 18:15
The rest (48 GP) 14:50

So you know who didn’t think he played well?

The Pittsburgh Penguins because they didn’t give him a 6 years/4.5m to end up playing on their 3rd pair when possible. He lost his top 4 spot to Pierre-Oliver Joseph for f***’s sake.

Maybe he bounces back next season. I personally don’t care about Ryan Graves anymore.

I don’t know if you need to make “our defense in 2022-23 was light years better than last year” your life’s work on the board and defend the honor of defensemen who are gone, but you do you.

 

[Guttersniped]

Welp, NJ having a better defensive system is a debatable point in itself.

Wait, we had a defensive system last year?

 

[StevenToddIves]

Yeah, I’m not doing a deep dive on Graves but he lost his spot in the top 4 and was drop to a bottom pair.

View attachment 880925

Graves’ 5v5 on Ice-Time
First two months (22 GP) 18:15
The rest (48 GP) 14:50

So you know who didn’t think he played well?

The Pittsburgh Penguins because they didn’t give him a 6 years/4.5m to end up playing on their 3rd pair when possible. He lost his top 4 spot to Pierre-Oliver Joseph for f***’s sake.

Maybe he bounces back next season. I personally don’t care about Ryan Graves anymore.

I don’t know if you need to make “our defense in 2022-23 was light years better than last year” your life’s work on the board and defend the honor of defensemen who are gone, but you do you.

You know, I was thinking about it, and if I had a choice to have to face-off in a debate with @Guttersniped or literally drop the gloves with Ryan Reaves? I think I'd go with Reaves because I'd have a better chance of maybe getting one hit in.

 

[NJDevs26]

This continued criticism is so wrong - it’s entirely results based. It’s fine to not agree with what the team did, but admit that punting 2012 and keeping 2014 could have also resulted in a busted pick.

Nah that was one of the rare moves where we could all see it was bad at the time. There was little chance we were ever going to get a pick as bad as 29 to drop but Lou A) wanted to fight the punishment as long as possible and B) thought he’d at least get a pick in the early 20’s to drop if it came to it, which knowing the state of the Parise negotiations and how old other key players were would have been naive at best.

Sure we could have ballsed up pick #11 in 2014 but that doesn’t make it a smart decision to hold onto pick #29 in a horrible draft.

 

[Forge]

You know, I was thinking about it, and if I had a choice to have to face-off in a debate with @Guttersniped or literally drop the gloves with Ryan Reaves? I think I'd go with Reaves because I'd have a better chance of maybe getting one hit in.

I'm not scared of @Guttersniped. I just pull out the big guns if I have to debate. There's no data she can provide that overcomes this

 

[StevenToddIves]

I'm not scared of @Guttersniped. I just pull out the big guns if I have to debate. There's no data she can provide that overcomes this

Do. Not. Test. @Guttersniped

You're playing with fire @Forge -- I don't know anyone else who can mix such impeccable research with so many swear words I've never even heard before.

 

[devilsblood]

Yeah, I’m not doing a deep dive on Graves but he lost his spot in the top 4 and was drop to a bottom pair.

Not really. 2nd half of the season Graves averaged the 4th most minutes amongst d-men.

The last 20 Pitt games POJ eeked out the 4th most minutes, but Graves missed 12 of those game and POJ likely picked up those minutes. Through 60 games the gap between Graves and the 5th d-man is 4.5 mpg.

Graves was a 2nd pair guy for Pitt and played heavily tilted defensive minutes( 30% o-zone start in Pitt's last 40 games which is extreme). His numbers were decent.

The narrative of Graves being terrible there is greatly exaggerated.

 

[BurntToast]

At this point, it is what it is..

We can’t “wish” back players from other teams if you liked them or not. Maybe Luke can take over for Siegs or they get another top 4.

I am hoping Fitz learned his lesson last season and stays away from slow old people.

 

[tailfins]

If you think you are a cup contender which they made the finals then why keep that pick who likely won’t be in the nhl 2-3 years from then. In theory you already have the pieces and that first round pick should be an easy loss

Nah that was one of the rare moves where we could all see it was bad at the time. There was little chance we were ever going to get a pick as bad as 29 to drop but Lou A) wanted to fight the punishment as long as possible and B) thought he’d at least get a pick in the early 20’s to drop if it came to it, which knowing the state of the Parise negotiations and how old other key players were would have been naive at best.

Sure we could have ballsed up pick #11 in 2014 but that doesn’t make it a smart decision to hold onto pick #29 in a horrible draft.

I wasn't in favor of keeping 29 either, but I just think the notion that it was clearly wrong not to give up the pick is incorrect.

First: Lou clearly didn't feel the punishment was appropriate, so he was going to keep fighting it. Would you just take the punishment if you felt it was levied incorrectly? Or, can you at least understand someone fighting for what they feel is right?

Second: knowing all the values, trading #11OA in 2 years for #29OA now and #30OA in 2 years isn't terrible value.

I get it - Lou gambled a potential 2014 #1OA pick for the #29OA in a weak draft. It's awful when you look at it like that. And, for us fans who had no insight into things, it seemed obvious that the Devils should just take their medicine and move on. But, since Lou and Bettman had worked together since 1993, it's reasonable that he had more insight than most fans did. Certainly more than me.

 

[ZYXWVUT]

I am starting to kinda think Markstrom ends up in toronto. There are just so many things that make too much sense. Their clear win-now position, treliving being the one who signed him in Calgary, the clear need for a goaltender to tandem with Woll, etc.

 

[Forge]

Elliott said there's talk of shortening the draft in the next cba

 

[Forge]

I am starting to kinda think Markstrom ends up in toronto. There are just so many things that make too much sense. Their clear win-now position, treliving being the one who signed him in Calgary, the clear need for a goaltender to tandem with Woll, etc.

I'm not even sure how concrete their interest is. If you listen to 32T, unless I'm misremembering, Elliott just did his Elliott thing where he's like, "I wonder about Toronto and Ottawa" and then followed it up with something to the extent of them always kicking the tires on everyone.

They also have no second or third round pick this year or next right now, and no first round pick next year. They are down a lot of bargaining power.

 

[Devils731]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1799878106884550967

Stinks for us that we are losing that resource. I hope the owners are getting paid handsomely though.

 

[devilsblood]

Elliott said there's talk of shortening the draft in the next cba

They can have the 7th, but they best not be thinking bout taking away our 6th rnd.

 

[Comparison Ford]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1799878106884550967

Stinks for us that we are losing that resource. I hope the owners are getting paid handsomely though.

i wonder why they would do this

 

[TrufleShufle]

We need a strong "if you ain't doing anything wrong, people aren't sure you did anything at all" type D-man, with Hamilton back to push everyone into a position they can thrive. Some fast bangers to muck stuff up on the bottom 6 forecheck and soften up a pinned in line for our top guns to come out and feast on. As for goalies, got nothing, to me it's like picking what poker player or fisherman will win a tournament.

 

[Forge]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1799878106884550967

Stinks for us that we are losing that resource. I hope the owners are getting paid handsomely though.

This sucks and is dumb as hell

 

[Guttersniped]

Not really. 2nd half of the season Graves averaged the 4th most minutes amongst d-men.

The last 20 Pitt games POJ eeked out the 4th most minutes, but Graves missed 12 of those game and POJ likely picked up those minutes. Through 60 games the gap between Graves and the 5th d-man is 4.5 mpg.

Graves was a 2nd pair guy for Pitt and played heavily tilted defensive minutes( 30% o-zone start in Pitt's last 40 games which is extreme). His numbers were decent.

The narrative of Graves being terrible there is greatly exaggerated.

*sigh* Yes, it was more complicated, I didn’t want to go into the weeds on Graves season with the Pens.


But he got dropped:




Their top two RHD are Letang & Karlsson.

They didn’t like Letang/Graves pair, so they swapped.

Graves completely neutralized Karlsson’s offense, just looking at GA doesn’t tell you what went wrong there. (The Graves/Letang pair didn’t seem that bad numbers wise, but each top pair was noticeably better with Petterson.)

So they dropped him to the 3rd pair. This is despite the fact that Joseph isn’t good and the rest of their defense is AHL randos.

He got bumped back up after Game 61 because the Pens traded 3rd pair mainstay Chad Ruhwedel to the Rags at the TDL. Then he got hurt in Game 70 and never played again.

His numbers are better than you would think considering not only what Pens fans said, but also what came from Pens beat reporters and even the team itself.

From a Russo March 4 Athletic article

Ryan Graves was expected to be a top-four defenseman, but his first season with the Penguins was perceived internally as a bust. Dubas does not believe there is a market for Graves without the Penguins eating significant salary, so the hope is Graves rebounds in his second season — with fewer expectations as a bottom-pairing option, team sources said.

But again, who cares? We, without a doubt, had more functional pairs in 2022-23. It was still the right thing to let Severson and Graves walk.

Who knows what we’re going with in 23-24. Hamilton coming back will be a big difference.

And Nemec and Hughes will still have some growing pains next season. Oh well, such is life.

 

[ZYXWVUT]

I'm not even sure how concrete their interest is. If you listen to 32T, unless I'm misremembering, Elliott just did his Elliott thing where he's like, "I wonder about Toronto and Ottawa" and then followed it up with something to the extent of them always kicking the tires on everyone.

They also have no second or third round pick this year or next right now, and no first round pick next year. They are down a lot of bargaining power.

Def a good point. I think some have also linked them to Brossiot in UFA after I thought about it again?

 

[Guttersniped]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1799878106884550967

Stinks for us that we are losing that resource. I hope the owners are getting paid handsomely though.

WTF? What does this mean? Are they stealing this from us?

These same sources stressed that both the Capitals and CapFriendly wanted the site to be publicly available and independently operated through the 2024 NHL Draft and the start of free agency, so it is not expected the sale will be official until at least July 5.
<edit>
After the transaction officially closes, the website will go dark.

They’ve gone to far!

 

[devilsblood]

*sigh* Yes, it was more complicated, I didn’t want to go into the weeds on Graves season with the Pens.


But he got dropped:
View attachment 880962

View attachment 880964

Their top two RHD are Letang & Karlsson.

They didn’t like Letang/Graves pair, so they swapped.

Graves completely neutralized Karlsson’s offense, just looking at GA doesn’t tell you what went wrong there. (The Graves/Letang pair didn’t seem that bad numbers wise, but each top pair was noticeably better with Petterson.)

So they dropped him to the 3rd pair. This is despite the fact that Joseph isn’t good and the rest of their defense is AHL randos.

He got bumped back up after Game 61 because the Pens traded 3rd pair mainstay Chad Ruhwedel to the Rags at the TDL. Then he got hurt in Game 70 and never played again.

His numbers are better than you would think considering not only what Pens fans said, but also what came from Pens beat reporters and even the team itself.

From a Russo March 4 Athletic article


But again, who cares? We, without a doubt, had more functional pairs in 2022-23. It was still the right thing to let Severson and Graves walk.

Who knows what we’re going with in 23-24. Hamilton coming back will be a big difference.

And Nemec and Hughes will still have some growing pains next season. Oh well, such is life.

You may want to use d-partner to indicate what tier he played on, but in terms of TOI, he was 4th amongst d-men, both 5v5 and total, and it wasn't close between he and the 5th guy.

Yes he was used in very defensive situations, and thus wasn't paired much with guys who looked to generate offense. Still there was never a stretch of time when 4 guys were playing more then him.

Now, in the 2nd half of the year, it does look like he was on an island in terms of toi, between the top 3 guys, and the true bottom pair guys, but he was always playing significantly more then the bottom 2.

 

[JimEIV]

*sigh* Yes, it was more complicated, I didn’t want to go into the weeds on Graves season with the Pens.


But he got dropped:
View attachment 880962

View attachment 880964

Their top two RHD are Letang & Karlsson.

They didn’t like Letang/Graves pair, so they swapped.

Graves completely neutralized Karlsson’s offense, just looking at GA doesn’t tell you what went wrong there. (The Graves/Letang pair didn’t seem that bad numbers wise, but each top pair was noticeably better with Petterson.)

So they dropped him to the 3rd pair. This is despite the fact that Joseph isn’t good and the rest of their defense is AHL randos.

He got bumped back up after Game 61 because the Pens traded 3rd pair mainstay Chad Ruhwedel to the Rags at the TDL. Then he got hurt in Game 70 and never played again.

His numbers are better than you would think considering not only what Pens fans said, but also what came from Pens beat reporters and even the team itself.

From a Russo March 4 Athletic article
This looks largely

But again, who cares? We, without a doubt, had more functional pairs in 2022-23. It was still the right thing to let Severson and Graves walk.

Who knows what we’re going with in 23-24. Hamilton coming back will be a big difference.

And Nemec and Hughes will still have some growing pains next season. Oh well, such is life.

Graves looks more like a a poor fit with partners than poor play to me?

You sign a guy that doesn't fit with either of your top 2 RHD....that seems like a management/organizational problem not a Graves problem?

Edit: and I don't think letting Graves walk was clearly the right thing to do... actually I think it was quite dumb....

We had no one to fill in the PK hole he left and there was no way in the world Bahl was ever going to fill his shoes...Bahl did an admirable job but our left is a disaster with two rookies and Siegenthaler.

Or Miller was the dumb move in that it lacked a certain amount of foresight.... A. He couldn't kill penalties and B. We had more depth on the right side and a lot of youth on the left side.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1799878106884550967

Stinks for us that we are losing that resource. I hope the owners are getting paid handsomely though.

Big winners here are probably puckpedia who actually have a very nice site from what I can see. Everyone’s gonna have to use them now

 

[Forge]

Edit: and I don't think letting Graves walk was clearly the right thing to do... actually I think it was quite dumb....

There's no way that signing Graves was the right thing to do.

You want to make a claim that there should have been a better fall back option to replace him than Bahl, that's something I can get behind. But you let Graves walk every time