Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part II

[JimEIV]

Yeah, Slavin's ES on ice save percentage was .909.

That difference is probably because Graves is just so much better at ES than Slavin is.

First, I wouldn't use those numbers that way...that is across teams. Too many variables

Second, Slavin had an on-ice SV% of 91.6% and was 3rd on his own team.... obviously he got the tougher matchups but the two guys in front of him had very similar 5v5 minutes.

Graves was head and shoulders above anyone else on his team....and here he obviously didn't get the toughest minutes on his team but he was the best with the minutes he got....the goalies didn't just turn good for Graves only.

 

[Forge]

First, I wouldn't use those numbers that way...that is across teams. Too many variables

Second, Slavin had an on-ice SV% of 91.6% and was 3rd on his own team.... obviously he got the tougher matchups but the two guys in front of him of very similar 5v5 minutes.

Isn't that exactly what you're doing when you say that Grave's goals against per 60 were substantially better than anyone on the devils?


His on ice save percentage at 5 on 5 was 91.6. That's not the statistic you were using for Graves. You were using ES:

Fewest goals against per 60 of any defenseman for Pittsburgh this season at Even Strength.

It was actually a very good 2 GA per 60 at ES . Last year he was at 2.3 on one of the best pairs in the league. He averaged 16:23 at ES this season and last year averaged 17:29 at ES

This year none of our regular Dmen were under Siegenthaler's 2.7 GA/60.

Fewer goals against are scored when Graves is on the ice.

 

[glenwo2]

The draft rankings video podcast I'm featured on is up. I warn you all it's really long haha.

I come on at about the 25 minute mark, if that helps shorten things. I think we start discussing the actual prospects is about the 46 minute mark, mostly because I'm bad at knowing when to shut up. If you want to know how weird I am, the 25-46 minute might be funny to watch.

Nice haircut.

Wish I had hair to be cut.

 

[NJDevs26]

The issue with the Devils defense last year was not necessarily replacing Severson and Graves with Luke and Nemec. While it's jumping the shark to say they were both 'upgrades' immediately, that wasn't nearly as costly short-term as Dougie's injury and the regression of Marino and Siegs. Now you can 'blame' the latter on not having as many vets around to support them, I'll buy that for the moment with Siegs (not as much with Marino since he was the de facto #1 anyway two years ago) but they better both bounce back next year regardless.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Nice haircut.

Wish I had hair to be cut.

I've made it my life goal to bring some aesthetic appeal to the Devils HFBoards.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

The issue with the Devils defense last year was not necessarily replacing Severson and Graves with Luke and Nemec. While it's jumping the shark to say they were both 'upgrades' immediately, that wasn't nearly as costly short-term as Dougie's injury and the regression of Marino and Siegs. Now you can 'blame' the latter on not having as many vets around to support them, I'll buy that for the moment with Siegs (not as much with Marino since he was the de facto #1 anyway two years ago) but they better both bounce back next year regardless.

The Siegs thing was proven that Dougie meant way more to him than vice versa we thought for a year here. I have more faith in Marino tbh

 

[Forge]

Statistics over a year will do a good job of stamping out random luck.

Yes and no. I mean, we see guys with very random shooting / save percentages every year and it's not a small amount, but it is a small amount relative to the total league players lol. Obviously more guys would be in line with their averages, so it's not the norm or anything, but someone having a very random outlier percentage season isn't atypical or anything.

We had bad goalies. Getting that out of the way before I get accused of not believing it. But you can't think what happens in front of a goalie doesn't affect a goalie outside just the pure number of shots.

Historically, Graves has had a better on ice save percentage than Slavin. Do we think that's because Slavin is a worse even strength defender than Graves? One thing I do agree with Jim about is that there are a lot of variables which make these these stats tricky. Level of competition, teammates. This 100% matters.

But there's nothing in Grave's profile that really indicates he should have had a .933 save percentage at even strength last year. He had 52 expected goals against and only gave up 38. He was basically 50/50 in high danger chances for and against.

According to natural stat trick, there were 221 high danger chances with him on the ice at 1139 ES minutes (16.27 ES minutes per game). Nemec was at 201 in 1062 (17.7 ES minutes per game). So graves gave up .194 high danger chances per minute while Nemec gave up .189 high danger chances per minute. One guy had a .933 save percentage, the other had .891.

Now, it's important to note that these stats aren't the end all be all. There are some flaws in things like how the nature of a high danger chance is calculated. Not all high danger chances are equal either. But they are at least a guiding star. Everything else is "eye test". They are the best we have. And there's nothing there that tells us that one should realistically have a .933 and the other an .891.

I absolutely think what happens in front of a goalie matters. That's how Adin Hill wins a stanley cup.

 

[SKNJD9]

What's the scuttlebutt on assistant coaches being discussed for the Devils? Jeremy Colliton and Dean Chenoweth have come up in recent days. Would these guys be upgrades over some of what we have on hand?

I'd take Colliton over Travis Green for sure. Colliton gets a bad wrap but look at what he had in Chicago, he was basically a tank commander setup to fail. There is potential there.

 

[Forge]

Someone please feel free to check those numbers and correct them if they are wrong. I was doing that part from my phone lol

 

[JimEIV]

The issue with the Devils defense last year was not necessarily replacing Severson and Graves with Luke and Nemec. While it's jumping the shark to say they were both 'upgrades' immediately, that wasn't nearly as costly short-term as Dougie's injury and the regression of Marino and Siegs. Now you can 'blame' the latter on not having as many vets around to support them, I'll buy that for the moment with Siegs (not as much with Marino since he was the de facto #1 anyway two years ago) but they better both bounce back next year regardless.

I take issue with the notion of Siegenthaler and Marino regression.

They both were asked to herd kittens and they just weren't able to. That's not regression that's having 3 defenders in the lineup with virtually no experience.

 

[Bleedred]

I'd take Colliton over Travis Green for sure. Colliton gets a bad wrap but look at what he had in Chicago, he was basically a tank commander setup to fail. There is potential there.

I'd take a bag of cotton over Travis Green.

A soaked bag of cotton.

He was very young when he took over as head coach there. He looked younger than half the players over there. You don't see head coaches as young as he was when he took over the Hawks. Paul Maurice way back in the day. I remember Marc Crawford being young when he coached the Nordiques/Avalanche in the 90s. Scotty Bowman back in the 60s haha.

Either way, he may be a more than adequate assistant coach. The guy has probably been coaching at this point longer than he was ever playing.

 

[Guadana]

If you didn't make a mistake I'm not really sure what you are saying....both of Pittsburgh's goalies were very average this season...

Jarry was a .903 in 51 games and
Nedelijkovic was.902 in 38 games

League average was was.903

If either of those had a super high on ice SV% with Graves on the ice, it had something to do with Graves not the opposite.

Graves wasnt good in pens. Pens fans hate him. And there is def-ly a reason why. I saw some of his game, against us too. He was bad. He said by himself and management too that he should rebuild his game.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I'd take Colliton over Travis Green for sure. Colliton gets a bad wrap but look at what he had in Chicago, he was basically a tank commander setup to fail. There is potential there.

And he still beat the Oilers in the bubble series lol

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

 

[Rhodes 81]

Am extra 300k isn't too significant in terms of player acquisition, but it may help absorb some potential bonus overages

 

[Forge]

Maybe siegs was just overcompensating when he was with Nemec, that's certainly possible. Maybe he was just trying to do too much. But the numbers kind of suggest that he was a much bigger drag on Nemec than Nemec was on him at even strength

 

[Ripshot 43]

The draft rankings video podcast I'm featured on is up. I warn you all it's really long haha.

I come on at about the 25 minute mark, if that helps shorten things. I think we start discussing the actual prospects is about the 46 minute mark, mostly because I'm bad at knowing when to shut up. If you want to know how weird I am, the 25-46 minute might be funny to watch.

Love the thumbnail, I always pause out dvr on the best still shots too

As I’ve said before, you’ve given us enough free content and added to great discussions, that I can’t help but support you where I can. I like the way you think about prospects and wish you could be a scout for the Devils.

 

[Bleedred]

And he still beat the Oilers in the bubble series lol

But Green beat Minnesota in the play-in, then followed it up by taking down the defending cup champs, before almost beating Vegas to get to the WCF! That's all much more impressive!

I actually had to look up who they beat in the play-in, because I had absolutely no recollection at all before the St. Louis series.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Love the thumbnail, I always pause out dvr on the best still shots too

As I’ve said before, you’ve given us enough free content and added to great discussions, that I can’t help but support you where I can. I like the way you think about prospects and wish you could be a scout for the Devils.

It's more support of Steve Mosier, who is a really good guy. But it was a fun way to spend a Friday afternoon and, as you know, I can talk about hockey prospects until all the ears in the world bleed haha.

 

[Forge]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1799569610376659159

 

[Bcap88]

I see Jim is on his roster construction Shpiel again acting like it’s 1998 and teams hold younger players right until they are 48

Always revisiting history but not taking into account contract values, free agents avaible, players avaible and the salary cap and overall never providing a solution just harping on the past

 

[JimEIV]

I see Jim is on his roster construction Shpiel again

Yup. We are still suffering from Shero's terrible mismanagement of defense and goaltending.

And that's why people think our "window is open "

Because the forwards are 5/6 years ahead of the goaltenders and defense...when it should've been done in reverse or at the very least a more balanced approach.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Yup. We are still suffering from Shero's terrible mismanagement of defense and goaltending.

And that's why people think our "window is open "

Because the forwards are 5/6 years ahead of the goaltenders and defense...when it should've been done in reverse or at the very least a more balanced approach.

so now Luke and Nemec are 5/6 years away from reaching their potential? lmao

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Who cares about Shero? The D is set up incredibly well with Luke and Nemec. Look at Florida’s D. Half of the group are just guys, and their best dman was waiver fodder not long ago.

 

[Forge]

I'm ready to put Luke and Nemec together next year and let them run