Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part II

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Emperoreddy

Show Me What You Got!
Apr 13, 2010
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No real reason to assume this is some awful decision with faulty reasoning. I trust the analytics team and Fitz in general. They certainly have some in house stuff they’re relying on. There are likely non goalie reasons that we underperformed xG models.

This is the absolutely crippling blunder of a deal that should shake your faith in the regime:

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Look at those crippling analytics to go along with that crippling contract and that crippling face.
 

Captain3rdLine

Registered User
Sep 24, 2020
7,381
8,620
if they REALLY wanted to do something, they'd dump someone else for a pick or something.

Teams do this type of thing all the time.
Who would we dump? Pretty much anyone we could dump would have to be replaced. Palat is the only one and wouldn’t be a cheap dump.

And that’s only something you really do if you have something lined up.
 

JimEIV

Registered User
Feb 19, 2003
67,633
30,389
No real reason to assume this is some awful decision with faulty reasoning. I trust the analytics team and Fitz in general. They certainly have some in house stuff they’re relying on. There are likely non goalie reasons that we underperformed xG models.

This is the absolutely crippling blunder of a deal that should shake your faith in the regime:

View attachment 886377
View attachment 886379
For a player that's potentially in a downward trend in his career, I'm not sure a 3 year weighted average that goes back to a Stanley Cup Finals team is very meaningful....besides the fact that those cards are pretty much meaningless in general.
 

RSeen

Registered User
Oct 26, 2011
6,772
2,139
Toronto
Pesce isn't THAT much of an upgrade when you factor in contract compared to Marino. Now if we're trading Marino for a left handed version of himself, maybe.
I am not a fan of this. Signing a guy who will be 30 shortly after the season starts, and will likely get around a 6 year term vs. a 27 year old with 3 years left at a lower cap hit (probably significantly lower as well) and there not being a massive difference in quality is absurd.
 

Better Call Sal

Salnalysis
Nov 24, 2011
25,668
39,512
New Jersey
Palat’s NMC ends up becoming a modified one next year with a 10 team no trade list, so he becomes more moveable after this season if you really feel it’s necessary.

I’m not in that camp. Yes, I’d like him to put up more points but he brings a lot of what our lineup is currently missing and he isn’t preventing us from making any moves right now. He’ll forever have good will from me for his Game 7 work last year. f*** the Rags forever.
 

Jersey Fresh

Video Et Taceo
Feb 23, 2004
26,723
9,666
T.A.
I’m not convinced Marino gets traded and I like the fact the Pesce is 6’3”
Does it matter if a guy is 6'3" and plays a pillow game? Pesce is a good player, but I don't think his size comes into play. Guy got tripled in hits by Jesper Bratt.

The whole thing just seems weird to me. You're selling low on Marino just to buy low on Pesce for more money at a more advanced age? Doesn't sound like a Fitz move to me, but we'll see.

I'll put it this way, if he signs Pesce and *doesn't* move Marino for an upgrade at forward, I'll be pretty underwhelmed.
 
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Triumph

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Oct 2, 2007
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Beyond everything that's being said, I'm not a huge fan of picking up players that Carolina is giving up on, even if they have plenty of reasons to do so. They don't make many mistakes.
 
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JimEIV

Registered User
Feb 19, 2003
67,633
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On Palat...

In a league that's is scoring over 3 goals a game per team...you shouldn't have a player in your top 9 that goes more than a quarter of the season with 1 goal. 1 goal in a 25 game stretch is atrocious. It can't be understated how horrible that is for 6M player.

That's beyond just a minor problem.
 

SteveCangialosi123

Registered User
Feb 17, 2012
28,993
51,335
NJ
For a player that's potentially in a downward trend in his career, I'm not sure a 3 year weighted average that goes back to a Stanley Cup Finals team is very meaningful....besides the fact that those cards are pretty much meaningless in general.
His underlying numbers were pretty great across the board last season. Not worse than in Tampa. Just need more goals and health. Not counting on that, but he’s still quite useful and a guy I want on the team when the playoffs start.
 

Hisch13r

Registered User
May 16, 2012
33,745
33,460
NJ
Who would we dump? Pretty much anyone we could dump would have to be replaced. Palat is the only one and wouldn’t be a cheap dump.

And that’s only something you really do if you have something lined up.
And he literally has a NMC… Even next year when he has a M-NTC it’s a 10 team trade list which could easily leave us with no team that’d actually want him. It’s awful and has always been awful.

Palat’s NMC ends up becoming a modified one next year with a 10 team no trade list, so he becomes more moveable after this season if you really feel it’s necessary.

I’m not in that camp. Yes, I’d like him to put up more points but he brings a lot of what our lineup is currently missing and he isn’t preventing us from making any moves right now. He’ll forever have good will from me for his Game 7 work last year. f*** the Rags forever.

It’s not a 10 team no trade. It’s a 10 team trade.
 

JimEIV

Registered User
Feb 19, 2003
67,633
30,389
And what makes Palat's dry spell so much worse was it was in right in the heart of the stretch run for a playoff spot...1 goal from the beginning of February to the first week of April

Screenshot_20240624-192525_1.png
 
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Better Call Sal

Salnalysis
Nov 24, 2011
25,668
39,512
New Jersey
On Palat...

In a league that's is scoring over 3 goals a game per team...you shouldn't have a player in your top 9 that goes more than a quarter of the season with 1 goal. 1 goal in a 25 game stretch is atrocious. It can't be understated how horrible that is for 6M player.

That's beyond just a minor problem.

What about 3 goals in 26? Is that okay?

Because that’s what Dawson Mercer did this year from January to March. He had only 6 points while Palat had 10 in this down stretches. Should Mercer be in the top 9? Or is it ok because he doesn’t make his big contract yet?

I’m not defending Palat’s production, but you can probably pick many players on the team this year who had a prolonged stretch of poor performance. Mercer had just 2 more points than Palat in 11 more games. They both could stand to have better production this year. And that’s why cherry picking samples from what was largely a terrible season last year does no one any good.

It’s not a 10 team no trade. It’s a 10 team trade.

My mistake, I misread it on Cap Friendly.
 
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