Devils 2021 training camp thread (news, notes and speculation) - Part III [MOD warning in OP]

[Devils731]

I don't remember where, but I think I read somewhere that there were several teams that were considering drafting Yegor in 2018. Multiple scouting orgs saw something. The guy that closes his eyes and plugs numbers into his enigma machine was blindsided.

He wasn’t drafted his first year eligible and was drafted 141st the next year.

So almost 300 players were preferred over him? Nobody even expected an NHL player or he would have gone much sooner.

 

[Blackjack]

So I'll guess he thinks Hamilton isn't as good as advertised? I cannot imagine that low key acquisitions like Graves, Tatar, and Bernier are all that "overrated" given the costs involved.

It's more about how highly his model is rating Hamilton. 3.6 wins is insane. It's like, close to Taylor Hall when he won the Hart with us. He's easily worth his $9 million contract if he's only worth 2.6 wins rather than 3.6.

Tatar is similar, I know 2.5 doesn't sound like a lot, but it's actually an above average top line player. If GMs thought Hamilton and Tatar were as good as Dom's model, Tatar would have gotten a Chris Kreider contract, and Hamilton would have gotten an Erik Karlsson contract.

Dom doesn't really explain why he thinks Bernier might not be worth his model's 1.6 wins, but I think he should be, I think he's an excellent goaltender.

 

[My3Sons]

It's more about how highly his model is rating Hamilton. 3.6 wins is insane. It's like, close to Taylor Hall when he won the Hart with us. He's easily worth his $9 million contract if he's only worth 2.6 wins rather than 3.6.

Tatar is similar, I know 2.5 doesn't sound like a lot, but it's actually an above average top line player. If GMs thought Hamilton and Tatar were as good as Dom's model, Tatar would have gotten a Chris Kreider contract, and Hamilton would have gotten an Erik Karlsson contract.

Dom doesn't really explain why he thinks Bernier might not be worth his model's 1.6 wins, but I think he should be, I think he's an excellent goaltender.

I never know whether these models are reasonably predictive or just measure isolated impacts that tell you something about the past but cannot realistically be extrapolated. Tatar sat on the market for a while and signed a short term low risk deal for NJ. I cannot imagine that GMs saw anything close to a top line player if he had settle for what he got. In my view, with the exception of Hamilton, the most important signing is Bernier. MBW is coming off ankle surgery and still rehabbing so the second goalie sounds key (putting aside any games missed due to league protocols).

 

[Hisch13r]

So I'll guess he thinks Hamilton isn't as good as advertised? I cannot imagine that low key acquisitions like Graves, Tatar, and Bernier are all that "overrated" given the costs involved.

It has nothing to do with the costs. It's about how he believes his model is overvaluing these players.

He is very high on Dougie but thinks his model might be slightly too high on him. It has Dougie as the 2nd best D just behind Makar. He said that he thinks Dougie might not be that high but is undoubtedly in the top 10.

With Graves it's more how much of his defensive value was because of himself or because of Colorado. He doesn't think Graves is a true top pair Dman and he's not sure how much of his value is because of himself or because of his elite partners like he had with Makar but recognizes he has a similar luxury here with Dougie.

His model has Tatar as a surefire 1st line winger but he doesn't believe that he is and is instead more a 2nd liner.

 

[My3Sons]

It has nothing to do with the costs. It's about how he believes his model is overvaluing these players.

He is very high on Dougie but thinks his model might be slightly too high on him. It has Dougie as the 2nd best D just behind Makar and also said that he thinks Dougie might not be that high but is undoubtedly in the top 10.

With Graves it's more how much of his defensive value was because of himself or because of Colorado. He doesn't think Graves is a true top pair Dman and he's not sure how much of his value is because of himself or because of his elite partners like he had with Makar but recognizes he has a similar luxury here with Dougie.

His model has Tatar as a surefire 1st line winger but he doesn't believe that he is and is instead more a 2nd liner.

All of which is very fair. I can understand saying that a bad team that added one top player and a few good but not great players is only somewhat improved.

 

[Nubmer6]

It has nothing to do with the costs. It's about how he believes his model is overvaluing these players.

He is very high on Dougie but thinks his model might be slightly too high on him. It has Dougie as the 2nd best D just behind Makar. He said that he thinks Dougie might not be that high but is undoubtedly in the top 10.

With Graves it's more how much of his defensive value was because of himself or because of Colorado. He doesn't think Graves is a true top pair Dman and he's not sure how much of his value is because of himself or because of his elite partners like he had with Makar but recognizes he has a similar luxury here with Dougie.

His model has Tatar as a surefire 1st line winger but he doesn't believe that he is and is instead more a 2nd liner.

With Graves, it's always been a struggle for models to quantify defensive defensemen.

 

[Blackjack]

I never know whether these models are reasonably predictive or just measure isolated impacts that tell you something about the past but cannot realistically be extrapolated. Tatar sat on the market for a while and signed a short term low risk deal for NJ. I cannot imagine that GMs saw anything close to a top line player if he had settle for what he got. In my view, with the exception of Hamilton, the most important signing is Bernier. MBW is coming off ankle surgery and still rehabbing so the second goalie sounds key (putting aside any games missed due to league protocols).

From what I've seen, Dom, Micah, JFresh, and a few others are pretty good about comparing their models' predictions versus actual results. They're far form perfect, but I think they do a decent job of roughly quantifying what a player can be expected to contribute.

Surely the most dubious part is "isolating" the player's contributions from his teammates'. Hockey is a team game, your results on the ice are heavily influenced by how you and your teammates work together.

 

[MartyOwns]

With Graves, it's always been a struggle for models to quantify defensive defensemen.

from what i've read, i don't think he is a defensive defenseman. he also doesn't appear to be an offensive defenseman. i really have no idea what he is. i'm expecting very little from him and i hope to be pleasantly surprised.

 

[Triumph]

I don't remember where, but I think I read somewhere that there were several teams that were considering drafting Yegor in 2018. Multiple scouting orgs saw something. The guy that closes his eyes and plugs numbers into his enigma machine was blindsided.

Friedman did mention Sharangovich in 31 thoughts before he was drafted. Still, drafting overage players out of the KHL is somewhat rare, and Friedman probably got a tip from an agent or something. Just curious, where did Devils fans put him in the top 20 prospects in 2019 and 2020?

A model that would rate Sharangovich highly would miss on so many other players.

 

[My3Sons]

from what i've read, i don't think he is a defensive defenseman. he also doesn't appear to be an offensive defenseman. i really have no idea what he is. i'm expecting very little from him and i hope to be pleasantly surprised.

I may have heard he has been taking proctology lessons so I think you have something to look forward to.

 

[Hisch13r]

from what i've read, i don't think he is a defensive defenseman. he also doesn't appear to be an offensive defenseman. i really have no idea what he is. i'm expecting very little from him and i hope to be pleasantly surprised.

Some models like JFresh have his defense very high, while some like Micah and Evolving Hockey have him closer to average. If he does end up being good defensively I don't expect it to come in the way most people think of the traditional stay at home defensive defenseman. He seems to be much more active

 

[None Shall Pass]

I suppose?

But my thought is we know he does have some other factors involved here like having had a rough case, having pre-existing conditions and there can very well be more circumstances that are at the root of his concerns. His mother is a medical professional and I am sure he is getting the absolute best advice available.

I sort of dismiss the PR angle...If he has any sort of issue, explaining the circumstances well enough could very well be burdensome(Edit: and open to skepticism/critique) and honestly we aren't owed that explanation...At least not more than "I have a couple of health concerns and health reasons why I’m working through it a little slower."

So we have to believe 1 of 2 things here...He has concerns surrounding his specific health circumstances or he is making some type of moral/philosophical statement...He literally said "I have health concerns" though.

Note the case mentioned below:

Yeah just look at the Leafs and Nylander

And here's a brief write-up: Maple Leafs' Nylander not fully vaccinated but will be before season starts

That's basically all anyone had to do. And that's in Toronto, where a player farting on a sidewalk gets articles written about him for decades. Simple, effective.

 

[Lou is God]

Friedman did mention Sharangovich in 31 thoughts before he was drafted. Still, drafting overage players out of the KHL is somewhat rare, and Friedman probably got a tip from an agent or something. Just curious, where did Devils fans put him in the top 20 prospects in 2019 and 2020?

A model that would rate Sharangovich highly would miss on so many other players.

Didn't crack the Top 20 in 2019 but finished #13 in 2020.

 

[Blackjack]

Friedman did mention Sharangovich in 31 thoughts before he was drafted. Still, drafting overage players out of the KHL is somewhat rare, and Friedman probably got a tip from an agent or something. Just curious, where did Devils fans put him in the top 20 prospects in 2019 and 2020?

A model that would rate Sharangovich highly would miss on so many other players.

Okay, but Devils fans aren't watching the KHL or selling subscriptions to their prospect cards. This is kind of the point. Plugging in scoring numbers from a dozen different professional and junior leagues around the world and then adjusting them for age and NHLe doesn't actually tell you much at the end of the day.

 

[MartyOwns]

I may have heard he has been taking proctology lessons so I think you have something to look forward to.

 

[My3Sons]

I got that plate off Amazon and put it on the front of the car I drove the most at the time (we only have rear license plates here). My son started taking it to school and I had to remove it with some mocking from my wife.

 

[Triumph]

Okay, but Devils fans aren't watching the KHL or selling subscriptions to their prospect cards. This is kind of the point. Plugging in scoring numbers from a dozen different professional and junior leagues around the world and then adjusting them for age and NHLe doesn't actually tell you much at the end of the day.

I still think it beats the draft market very slightly, and I think comparing NHLe like this intuitively is very difficult and people will make mistakes eyeballing it.

Absolutely no one had Sharangovich as a potential NHLer in March 2020.

 

[JimEIV]

I may have heard he has been taking proctology lessons so I think you have something to look forward to.

At 6'-'5'' I'd be really concerned with the size of his hands.

 

[Triumph]

Didn't crack the Top 20 in 2019 but finished #13 in 2020.

Those were done when the KHL was well underway and Yegor started scoring a bunch of goals. I thought they might've been done in August like normal but of course the NHL was playing games then.

 

[Jets012]

Was this posted in addition to Dom's?

 

[JimEIV]

He wasn’t drafted his first year eligible and was drafted 141st the next year.

So almost 300 players were preferred over him? Nobody even expected an NHL player or he would have gone much sooner.

I think you'd even have a hard time seeing an NHL player based on his AHL numbers...I mean it is actually kind of shocking how out of nowhere and high he's risen.

I don't know that I have ever seen a 22 year old player with .336 PPG over 125 AHL games win a top 6 role and produce in that role?

Pretty incredible story.

 

[Patrik26]

i remember he was/is so hyped on these boards too

So did the Devils in a way. Didn't they have his name sewn on the draft jersey? Does that happen often for a 2nd round pick?

 

[Lou is God]

I thought one positive thing out of Mac being unvaccinated is that it might have waken up NJ.com from their slumber coverage of our team, but nope, not even this story is worthy of their time.

 

[Guttersniped]

Ugh, brutal writeup from Dom on the Devils season preview. LMAO

Here we go again …
Another offseason, another preseason filled with rave reviews for a Devils team that did “everything right” and looks primed to take the next step toward relevancy.
This summer, the team specifically targeted players my model likely overrates and what we’re left with is a pie-in-the-sky projection for a team that finished third last in the league with a 66-point pace.
This season, the Devils are expected to earn far more points and be in contention for a playoff spot. I’ve seen this film before …

New Jersey Devils 2021-22 season preview

He hasn't updated the overall list yet, but I guess we're 20th.

That’s a funny opening.

He’s open about how his model does can overvalue guys when discussing his scoring but that’s a joke about Hamilton and Tatar. (It’s a hockey analytics joke so your mileage may vary).

It’s also a joke about when he predicted the Devils would have 93.0 points in 2019-20 which obviously completely blew up in his face. That’s the “I’ve seen this film before” part.

We imploded in 2019-20 for a lot reasons I’d rather not rehash since it’s my least favorite season of recent memory. But that’s what he’s referring to.

And this isn’t brutal:

That detail is the major thing going for the Devils’s forwards: age. Almost everyone is at an age where their prime is right around the corner with serious potential for a breakout. One big leap can set off a chain reaction where a number of players reach a new level that the model couldn’t predict. The Devils depth chart might be funny to look at one year from now with that in mind.

The key is that you can’t predict when a player takes his game up a notch. The model adjusts for age, but every player ages differently. Some take a leap, some move up slowly and some simply are what they are. It’s difficult to say what will happen until it does which is why it’s better to just be cautious when it comes to breakout candidates — especially with a team that looks like it has a lot of them.

Even on defense, there’s Ty Smith who is entering his sophomore season after a solid rookie campaign. He had a decent 48 percent expected goals rate and scored at a nearly 40-point pace, fine numbers for a rookie defender. He’s on a pair with Damon Severson to start and it’ll be especially interesting to see how he fares now that his responsibilities are eased by the presence of Hamilton. He was easily the team’s best defenseman last season and should be able to show more in second pairing minutes. P.K. Subban on the third pair should be a lot more efficient in sheltered minutes, too.

There are a lot of ifs throughout New Jersey’s lineup which comes with the territory of being a middling team. If there were fewer ifs there would be more certainty about what to expect, but the mystery creates variance between good, mad or even medium. While the team’s newcomers are likely collectively overrated, the breakout potential for a large majority of the roster makes it a lot easier to be optimistic about the team’s chances. A few breakouts here and there and this team can be competitive.

Everything likely hinges on the team’s top two centers. The teams that take the biggest leaps usually do so because a young player with pedigree figures things out and starts playing the game on easy mode. New Jersey has two such players and has insulated them well with talent that can help them take their games to the next level.

This feels different from the last time everyone bought in on the Devils hype. Even after expressing the appropriate amount of caution, New Jersey looks poised to take a serious step next season. Whether it’ll be enough to make the playoffs remains to be seen.

 

[JimEIV]

Note the case mentioned below:



And here's a brief write-up: Maple Leafs' Nylander not fully vaccinated but will be before season starts

That's basically all anyone had to do. And that's in Toronto, where a player farting on a sidewalk gets articles written about him for decades. Simple, effective.

In this article Nylander says essentially/gives as much information as Blackwood did

"I'm not fully vaccinated yet. I had a couple of medical things that I had to take care but I'll be vaccinated by the beginning of the season," Nylander explained.

Obvious difference is: "I'll be vaccinated by the beginning of the season" - But is not reasonable to believe Blackwood has a different or currently unknown timeline?

I think we are slicing hairs here?