Confirmed Signing with Link: [DET] Danny DeKeyser (6 years, $5M AAV)

[LeafingTheWay]

He would though. Pretty easily actually.

Subban>Josi>DeKeyser>Ekholm

NSH straight up has 4 clearly better defensemen than Dekeyser.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

I hit it on the nail, I said that DDK would get a 6 year $30 million deal that's pretty much the norm here. That's what Rielly signed for and i think that's what Trouba will get as well..

Is that you that said that yesterday?

 

[Hurricane Hugo]

Haha

 

[SmellOfVictory]

So, not many people here watch Dekeyser.

He's a good dman, but generally you pay players more based on offensive production, and he doesn't have a ton. Five million certainly isn't a discount on his part.

Not necessarily a bad deal but makes me feel even better about Rielly's deal

As with every thread this kind of sentiment comes up in, there's a huge difference between a contract for a young kid that buys up a couple of UFA years versus a contract that includes five of them. One is effectively an RFA contract, while the other is effectively a UFA contract, and the valuation of those contracts is very different in the NHL.

 

[oilerbear]

So confused by this thread.

Are all defenseman judged by point production or something?

It is embarrassing!

look at even goal scoring affect by forwards and Dmen.

Forwards Evg/60 .65
Forwards EVA1/60 .51
Forwards EVA2/60 .41
Dmen EVA2/60 .31
Dmen EVA1/60 .25
Dmen EVg/60 .17

the more directly involved in even offence a dman is the less likely a goal will be scored.

Take the 27 best EVG dmen. (teams #1 EVG D)
the 27th scores 6 EVG
they score a total of 212 EVG

Now take the forwards that score 6 EVG.
that is 272 forwards (teams #1-9 forwards)
they score a total of 3040 EVG

212/3252 = 6.5%

Just love the experts that think Dmen drive even offence.

Just get the forwards the D....... puck!

quick transition passes.
rather than skating the puck up.
it does not let opposition forwards and D to set up for preventing zone entry and limiting HSCA penetration.

We know that the average record to achieve 96 points for the 2nd WC playoff position is.
42W - 28L - 12 SO/OTL

If a teams special team breaks even in PPGF and PPGA

that teams forwards have to out score its EVGA by .30 EVGF/60

some guy made a comment laughing about the value of Larsson the best EVGA d
and 12th best PKGA d versus one of the offensive wonder D Faulk.

Larsson 1.35 EVGA/60 last year.
that means you need forwards to score 1.66 EVGF/60
300 forwards can out score his defence.

Faulk 2.90 EVGA/60
that means you need forwards to score 3.21 EVGF/60
10 forwards can out score his defence.
10?
10!

that is just brutal Def play!

6.5% of evg makes all the difference.

 

[syc]

Wow.

The glory days are finished wings fans, sure hope we don't see a half empty arena in Detroit like the old days.

 

[Soon2B25]

NSH straight up has 4 clearly better defensemen than Dekeyser.

Agreed. In addition, I would easily take Ryan Ellis ahead of Dekeyser any day of the week. He would barely be a third pairing guy on the Preds.
Too much money over a too-long term for a guy who is marginally productive and soft.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Is that you that said that yesterday?

I posted it on our board about 2-3 weeks ago, And also had mentioned it on the big board here several weeks ago just figured he would get 6 years and $5 million per.

 

[triggrman]

Look at CF% vs OZS% and DZS%

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/p/pietral01.html

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/h/hedmavi01.html

If you can't see that pattern in that chart then I don't know what to tell you.

Saying zone starts don't affect corsi is one of the more idiotic things you can say. Where a player plays on the ice has an absolute impact on how corsi is measured for the. Spending more time in the defensive zone means more opportunities for only negative impact to their Corsi.

You can't just saying over an entire season competition is equivalent. In every single game, a defenseman like Pietrangelo sees harder competition than a guy like Shattenkirk or Bortozzo. That's holds true over the season. An event on the micro level still occurs on the macro level, just to a greater degree.

Competition measure by Corsi for the sake of corsi is fine, but ultimately meaningless in true essence of quality of competition. Who is harder to play against, Berglund, Jaskin, Paajarvi, or Steen? Steen is the hardest, but the other 3 have higher CF%, meaning they are rated as harder competition by your standards. This measure does not determine if you are facing 1st line quality forwards or 4th line quality forwards.

The entire argument from the Corsi people makes 0 sense when you actually think about the game of hockey. There are too many variables, it's not like baseball where it is a 1 v 1 direct competition between batter and pitcher.

Totally agree!!!!!! I'm sure corsi has some useful applications just like =/- does, but neither are good at telling you how good someone is defensively or how much puck possession a team has.

 

[oilerbear]

People forget Girardi actually was good at one point. His game kind of fell off a cliff though, I think probably because he plays such a physically taxing brand of hockey. Dekeyser doesn't play that way, so I'm not really worried about a similar type of decline.



I'd take Ekholm over Danny as well, but I still don't mind this contract. Dekeyser is a lot more valuable to Detroit than Ekholm is to you guys, because of how much weaker our back end is. You guys have a great deal on Ekholm, I'd say our deal for Dekeyser is ok.

During the 4 years around the cup final.
Girardi and Mcdonagh were one of the best 1st comp HSCA D pairs in the game.

yes the last 2 years they went from top 40 HSC Ad to bottom 20 HSCAD.

lundquist still continues to be a goalie that provides cup caliber HSCa save% goaltending.
the HSCA shot rates faced has dramatically climbed.

When you look at HSCA shot charts of the pair.
Most of the penetration is on Mcdonagh's side.

Girardi may still be able to handle 1st HSCA play.
Mcdonagh cannot!

Mcdonagh likely reverts to a top 60 HSCA D with 2nd or lesser comp.
that is what happened to seabrook after the 2010 cup.

Hjarlmasson and Oduya were CHI 1st comp HSCA anchor d.

Girardi may require that drop too.

Strong 2nd comp HSCA d pairs are just as rare as 1st comp.

 

[Zirakzigil]

Pretty solid deal for the Wings. He's one of their best defenders.

 

[DJB]

Ouch! About a million+ too much per season.

 

[member 202355]

Look at CF% vs OZS% and DZS%

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/p/pietral01.html

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/h/hedmavi01.html

If you can't see that pattern in that chart then I don't know what to tell you.

I'm not sure what I'm supposed to be looking at.

Saying zone starts don't affect corsi is one of the more idiotic things you can say. Where a player plays on the ice has an absolute impact on how corsi is measured for the. Spending more time in the defensive zone means more opportunities for only negative impact to their Corsi.

This appears to be conventional wisdom, but one need only look to the graph you attached on the previous page to realize that this is false. A small difference in the offensive versus defensive zone starts is not going to affect corsi in any significant way. The effect of which zone a player starts in following a faceoff is severely overstated, and has become an empty talking point on these boards.

You can't just saying over an entire season competition is equivalent.

Among forwards who played at least 750 minutes at even strength last season, Jonathan Toews was #1 in OppCF% at 50.5. Dead last was Chris Tierney, with an OppCF% of 49.5. That's a mere one percent. Among defensemen, Erik Johnson was #1 in OppCF% at 50.6. The defenseman ranked last was Roman Polak, at 49.1. Again, a difference of just 1.5%.

In every single game, a defenseman like Pietrangelo sees harder competition than a guy like Shattenkirk or Bortozzo. That's holds true over the season. An event on the micro level still occurs on the macro level, just to a greater degree.

Pietrangelo may see more difficult competition in terms of the overall totality of the players he has to face, but in terms of possession (which is all we care about when talking about corsi), he is facing pretty much the same competition as Shattenkirk or Bortuzzo.

Pietrangelo OppCF%: 49.9
Shattenkirk OppCF%: 49.8
Bortuzzo OppCF%: 49.7

Competition measure by Corsi for the sake of corsi is fine, but ultimately meaningless in true essence of quality of competition. Who is harder to play against, Berglund, Jaskin, Paajarvi, or Steen? Steen is the hardest, but the other 3 have higher CF%, meaning they are rated as harder competition by your standards. This measure does not determine if you are facing 1st line quality forwards or 4th line quality forwards.

Okay, but only possession is to be considered when talking about corsi of a player. For example, Roman Josi I think most people would agree is a better defenseman than Chris Tanev. He is, by extension, a tougher opponent. But if we're looking at possession only, then Tanev is tougher competition. Roman Josi could score 50 goals and Tanev would still be tougher competition in the context of this argument, because he's the superior possession player.

And no, I do not look at raw numbers and make value judgments based on that. Clearly Steen is better than the three other players you mentioned, but he's a mediocre possession player, which is all that matters when looking at corsi.

Just to reiterate, competition among players is the same over time. A one-game sample is totally inconsequential. One night Pietrangelo may face tougher competition (corsi), while Bortuzzo may face tougher competition another. In the end it pretty much balances out.

 

[triggrman]

But in the end it doesn't balance out.

I love Ekholm but he's not facing the same competition Weber is 99% of the time.

matching players is why hockey coaches make so much money.....

 

[Rebels57]

This seems like a bit of an overpayment. Probably should be around $4.5 per max.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

I posted it on our board about 2-3 weeks ago, And also had mentioned it on the big board here several weeks ago just figured he would get 6 years and $5 million per.

I saw someone posted 6 years 5 million.

I think it's a good contract

 

[tarheelhockey]

I'm a little surprised at the strength of the reaction here. When I saw the number it didn't surprise me at all. Maybe it's not a discount deal, but it seems like no more than a very slight premium payment.

 

[nbwingsfan]

yikes - Detroit's GM is showing his age with every move he makes. They are desperate to make the playoffs again

They should have let their best D go instead of overpaying him by $500,000? That'll solve all our defensive issues!!

People here are clueless. This is the going rate for a top 3/4D.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

I'm a little surprised at the strength of the reaction here. When I saw the number it didn't surprise me at all. Maybe it's not a discount deal, but it seems like no more than a very slight premium payment.

Strongly agree with this. 5 of the 6 years on the deal are UFA eligible, and what kind of UFA dman do you get for $5M when the contract goes until the player is 32 YO?

 

[Tatar Shots]

I'm stunned by how people are reacting to this deal and the opinions of Dekeyser. Yes it is a bit more than I was expecting (thought he would get 4.5M on similar term). Dekeyser is very good in his own end and is a great skater and is easily able to move the puck up the ice (the Great Mike Babcock called him elite at this). He is a 2nd pairing guy having to play above station on the top pairing (22 minutes a night) with the most difficult assignments in Detroit. This contract also buy out 5 UFA years and is all prime career years until he is 32; so comparisons to the Reilly contract make zero sense. Reilly will likely be signing an 8M AAV contract when he is a year older than Dekeyser is right now.

 

[Martinez]

Love this deal, he's by far our best defenseman and one of our most important players. He's young so lock him up now.

 

[bearcountry17]

This is a very fair deal. Anyone saying different either doesn't watch Dekeyser or doesn't understand buying up UFA years. He's a good top-4 two-way dman, is just entering his prime, and will be 32 when the deal ends.

 

[Sensinitis]

What I don't understand is why people who do not watch the player play much are comfortable with having an opinion on his deal. If you don't watch him play, how do you know what he's worth?

 

[Sensinitis]

yea, im sure someone from the western conference has seen him more than eastern conference posters

That's a pretty ignorant post...I'm from ''the eastern conference'' and find ways to catch as many western conference games as eastern ones...

An eastern conferencer watching more east games is not a fact, it's just very likely.

Does not mean it is applicable to every single one of us.

 

[KJoe88]

[MOD]

Good deal for a top three defenseman.