Confirmed Signing with Link: [DET] Danny DeKeyser (6 years, $5M AAV)

[SirloinUB]

DDK could very well be Detroits best shutdown dman.

But that doesnt automatically make him an "outstanding shutdown defenseman"

THAT is really reaching

Not according to Mike Babcock:

"He's a real good player," Babcock said. "He's an elite skater who makes good decisions. Good on the penalty kill, good on the power play when we use him there. Plays good minutes, makes good plays. Human eraser -- makes all the mistakes everyone else makes go away."

 

[42]

Good deal for both.

For both DeKeyser and his wife? Yes, indeed

 

[bleedblue1223]

The onus is on you to prove that it does, not for me to prove that it doesn't. You're the one who threw out the claim that usage has a massive impact on possession, and so far you have shown nothing to prove that.



Zone starts have no affect on possession numbers, and that's a fact. There is no correlation between fraction of offensive versus defensive zone starts and the corsi of the player. If we're talking explicitly about a player's posession numbers, only the posession numbers of the player's opponents are taken into consideration when talking about quality of competition. And over the course of an entire season, every player faces almost the same competition in terms of posession.

No, you are also making a counter claim with 0 evidence. Look at Petro's and Hedman's numbers and that is the pattern.

Attached is a picture that measures zone starts and corsi and the pattern. The original image was from someone making your point and didn't not label the axis, but the zone starts are on the x, and the y is CF%.

If you honestly believe the bottom paragraph, then there really isn't anything to discuss. All of that is false, but you present it as fact. To believe there is no disparity in competition and no impact on possession by how you are played, then there is no discussion to be had.

I wish people on this site knew how to actually debate a disagreement.

 

[TheMule93]

Not according to Mike Babcock:

Thanks for digging up Babcocks words on DDK, I was gonna go do it but the newest post in the thread conveniently did it instead

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

For both DeKeyser and his wife? Yes, indeed

and the Dekeyser's for many future generations now

 

[Fire Sweeney]

Insane for a 3rd pairing D.

 

[KPower]

Wings are the most desperate team in the league.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Insane for a 3rd pairing D.

Where do you people get this stuff from?

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

Insane for a 3rd pairing D.

played 2nd highest mins on Detroit last year, and year before, and year before that

 

[SirloinUB]

Insane for a 3rd pairing D.

Dekeyser was Detroit's #1 Dman. He played a shutdown role against the opponents first lines on a nightly basis.

Detroit's two minute leaders:

• Kronwall: 22:00/game
• Dekeyser: 21:48/game

"No regular defenseman in Detroit took a lower percentage of offensive zone starts and none faced the quality of competition that DeKeyser did on a nightly basis."

 

[member 202355]

No, you are also making a counter claim with 0 evidence. Look at Petro's and Hedman's numbers and that is the pattern.

Your claim had zero evidence. It does, however, appear that you have posted an attachment below, so I'm looking forward to dissecting that.

Attached is a picture that measures zone starts and corsi and the pattern. The original image was from someone making your point and didn't not label the axis, but the zone starts are on the x, and the y is CF%.

What is that? It looks like a big blob of nothing. [MOD]

If you honestly believe the bottom paragraph, then there really isn't anything to discuss. All of that is false, but you present it as fact. To believe there is no disparity in competition and no impact on possession by how you are played, then there is no discussion to be had.

Quality of competition and zone starts have minimal effect on the corsi of a player. Like I said, over an entire season, every player is facing pretty much the same competition. The highest and lowest CF% of competition is seperated by 1-2%. And zone starts, as the graph you posted would indicate, have very little bearing on the outcome CF%.

 

[izlez]

What is that? It looks like a big blob of nothing. [MOD]

"You posted a specific examples of 2 players and it wasn't enough. Now you post a huge sample size, and frankly, it hurts my eyes, so I'm going to reject it."

 

[triggrman]

Zone starts have no affect on possession numbers, and that's a fact. There is no correlation between fraction of offensive versus defensive zone starts and the corsi of a player. If we're talking explicitly about a player's posession numbers, only the posession numbers of the player's opponents are taken into consideration when talking about quality of competition. And over the course of an entire season, every player faces almost the same competition in terms of posession.

I don't know anyone that has played or really studied hockey for a period of time that would actually believe that zone starts for a defenseman have no impact on possession.


But I also don't believe corsi=possession.

 

[Gm0ney]

DeKeyser's AAV is 6.85% of the current cap. If you compare this to a deal signed to start in the 2007-08 season the comparative AAV would be $3.45M. If you look at that era for comparables, you find guys like Barret Jackman, Kronwall, Dennis Wideman, Suter, Carle, Bieksa, Chris Phillips, Paul Martin...

Anyway, it doesn't seem out of whack at all to me.

 

[member 202355]

"You posted a specific examples of 2 players and it wasn't enough. Now you post a huge sample size, and frankly, it hurts my eyes, so I'm going to reject it."

That graph only proves my point. There is no correlation between zone starts and corsi, and it's sitting there in plain view.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Are people really calling this a bad deal?

It's not the steal I hoped for (4.0-4.5) but Danny is a top 3 d-man on almost every team in the league. This is fair value and will look great if he improves at all.

 

[liquiduck]

Lindholm:
bottom 1st comp
top 30 EVA/60
top 10 HSCA D
top 15 Sa/60
top 15 GA/60
top 70 PKGA
top 40 PPGF/60
pretty close to 1st pair results in all.

He is one of 5 d that are close to lidstrom like in performance over the last 2 years.

his agent better be aking for way more!

He can ask for the moon, but he's got little leverage. This deal could not be used as a comparable in any context.

 

[TorontoTrades]

Not necessarily a bad deal but makes me feel even better about Rielly's deal

 

[izlez]

Terrible deal. Should have saved the money to re-sign Brendan Smith

http://public.tableau.com/shared/FB9DKTGYX?:display_count=yes

#AdvancedStats

 

[bleedblue1223]

Your claim had zero evidence. It does, however, appear that you have posted an attachment below, so I'm looking forward to dissecting that.

What is that? It looks like a big blob of nothing. A baby could throw **** at the wall and it would look more linear than that.

Quality of competition and zone starts have minimal effect on the corsi of a player. Like I said, over an entire season, every player is facing pretty much the same competition. The highest and lowest CF% of competition is seperated by 1-2%. And zone starts, as the graph you posted would indicate, have very little bearing on the outcome CF%.

Look at CF% vs OZS% and DZS%

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/p/pietral01.html

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/h/hedmavi01.html

If you can't see that pattern in that chart then I don't know what to tell you.

Saying zone starts don't affect corsi is one of the more idiotic things you can say. Where a player plays on the ice has an absolute impact on how corsi is measured for the. Spending more time in the defensive zone means more opportunities for only negative impact to their Corsi.

You can't just saying over an entire season competition is equivalent. In every single game, a defenseman like Pietrangelo sees harder competition than a guy like Shattenkirk or Bortozzo. That's holds true over the season. An event on the micro level still occurs on the macro level, just to a greater degree.

Competition measure by Corsi for the sake of corsi is fine, but ultimately meaningless in true essence of quality of competition. Who is harder to play against, Berglund, Jaskin, Paajarvi, or Steen? Steen is the hardest, but the other 3 have higher CF%, meaning they are rated as harder competition by your standards. This measure does not determine if you are facing 1st line quality forwards or 4th line quality forwards.

The entire argument from the Corsi people makes 0 sense when you actually think about the game of hockey. There are too many variables, it's not like baseball where it is a 1 v 1 direct competition between batter and pitcher.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

Are people really calling this a bad deal?

It's not the steal I hoped for (4.0-4.5) but Danny is a top 3 d-man on almost every team in the league. This is fair value and will look great if he improves at all.

I think there is a lack of knowledge amongst fans with Dekeyser... myself included. Ill admit at first I was shocked at the deal, cause obviously ive heard of the guy and know his story but I haven't really followed his career so far in Detroit and he doesn't put up those sexy numbers. But as I really look at it, it seems like a very good deal.

It's funny with certain players how a lot of people assume they are nothing special cause they play a safe, sound, smart game and are heavily relied on but don't put up those 50ish points and all that. Another name that comes to mind is Chris Tanev on Vancouver. A lot of people assume nothing much of the guy but he is a top dman and extremely valuable. I really watched him this past year and I was completely impressed how unbelievable he is.

I look forward to watch a lot of Detroit games next season now so I can see just how good of a player DD is.

 

[Frk It]

"This is what shutdown defensemen cost". Where have i heard that before?



Danny G

This is almost as bad as Dan Girardi`s contract...

People forget Girardi actually was good at one point. His game kind of fell off a cliff though, I think probably because he plays such a physically taxing brand of hockey. Dekeyser doesn't play that way, so I'm not really worried about a similar type of decline.

I disagree there, I'd take Ekholm in almost every situation over him...

I'd take Ekholm over Danny as well, but I still don't mind this contract. Dekeyser is a lot more valuable to Detroit than Ekholm is to you guys, because of how much weaker our back end is. You guys have a great deal on Ekholm, I'd say our deal for Dekeyser is ok.

 

[bleedblue1223]

That graph only proves my point. There is no correlation between zone starts and corsi, and it's sitting there in plain view.

Notice the trend moving upward and to the right, it's pretty clear.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I don't know anyone that has played or really studied hockey for a period of time that would actually believe that zone starts for a defenseman have no impact on possession.


But I also don't believe corsi=possession.

You're correct, it doesn't.

 

[njx9]

People forget Girardi actually was good at one point. His game kind of fell off a cliff though, I think probably because he plays such a physically taxing brand of hockey. Dekeyser doesn't play that way, so I'm not really worried about a similar type of decline.

DDK is also 26 and is signed till he's 32. Girardi is 32 and signed through ~37.

Not super comparable at this point.