Confirmed Signing with Link: [DET] Danny DeKeyser (6 years, $5M AAV)

[Frk It]

What I don't understand is why people who do not watch the player play much are comfortable with having an opinion on his deal. If you don't watch him play, how do you know what he's worth?

nhl.com/stats duh.

 

[Sensinitis]

Impact of UFA years. Just look at the cash that those guys in those years.

Not sure whether I should giggle or shed a few tears at the reality that most posters in this thread can't grasp this.

 

[gorangers0525]

Terribad

 

[Sensinitis]

Then congrats, you have an opinion. Don't act like anybody who doesn't share it is just ignorant.

Thats not how I would describe the reactions of posters defending the deal at all.

Some posters are calling the deal brutal without stating why, and others have comparing the deal to better players signed at different times and under different circumstances.

Reactions of posters defending the deal seem appropriate.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

Terribad

Based on what, particularly? If he a $3 million defenseman? $4 million?

 

[gorangers0525]

That graph only proves my point. There is no correlation between zone starts and corsi, and it's sitting there in plain view.

Thank you. I have never seen a poster post more evidence against their own viewpoint lol. And then post two players with erratic posession stats and zone starts like that's proving something, while calling everyone else idiotic

 

[Petes2424]

nhl.com/stats duh.

They play lots of Be A GM. You could almost turn it on, look a player up and that will be the overwhelming opinion on here. Then when real trades happen, they are the most surprised by what a player was or wasnt dealt for. Same with contracts.

Its actually quite funny

 

[bleedblue1223]

This appears to be conventional wisdom, but one need only look to the graph you attached on the previous page to realize that this is false. A small difference in the offensive versus defensive zone starts is not going to affect corsi in any significant way. The effect of which zone a player starts in following a faceoff is severely overstated, and has become an empty talking point on these boards.

Lets look at it like this. Why do you think that players with the highest defensive zone starts struggle to have their CF% over 50%? Why do you think that players with the highest offensive zone starts have CF% consistently well above 50%.

Then if we agree that worse players can be better possession players in better situations, then what are we actually trying to argue. Is the hypothesis that a collection of the really good possession players make the best team? Take a bunch of guys that are in theory undervalued, but have great CF%, and create a team of those players? If you don't believe that then possession stats at the core are kind of meaningless.

The counter argument to that is that the top Corsi teams typically win. Well yes, that is obviously true, more shots likely means more chances and likely means more goals. For a team, Corsi can tell you who is good and who is bad. For an individual, it does not give you that same conclusion. If you take a collection of good possession players, it does not mean those possession numbers will remain the same or even remain good in this hypothetical possession team. I'm not talking about a collection of Doughty's, I'm talking about a collection of the Corsi greats that don't pass the eye test or have favor variables for their high corsi, guys like Jackman from last season or Ribeiro or Brown.

That's the core of the argument here, if the Corsi works for teams, but not for players, then it's not a good predictive measure. It only works when you can truly balance out the variables, when you combine the favorable variables and the unfavorable variables of individuals and combine them. Corsi fails as a predicative or evaluative measure for individuals because it assumes that Pietrangelo and Shattenkirk would have the same Corsi in reversed roles.

That's why people on my side give Corsi and Hero charts very little credit. This is really the only area in this conversation where we can have a healthy debate. Everything will just be disagreed on and there will be no meaningful discussions coming from them.

 

[hi]

When you have the chance to lock up the left-handed version of Roman Polak for 6 years and 7% of your cap-space, you have to do it

 

[izlez]

When you have the chance to lock up the left-handed version of Roman Polak for 6 years and 7% of your cap-space, you have to do it

Love these charts


Do you guys think the Wings should trade Brendan Smith + a 5th rounder for Doughty, or should we settle for Ryan Suter with 25% retained for Brendan Smith straight up?

 

[bleedblue1223]

Love these charts


Do you guys think the Wings should trade Brendan Smith + a 5th rounder for Doughty, or should we settle for Ryan Suter with 25% retained for Brendan Smith straight up?

A career 55.5 CF% player. How has Smith not won a Norris?

 

[Frk It]

When you have the chance to lock up the left-handed version of Roman Polak for 6 years and 7% of your cap-space, you have to do it

Yeah, but I guess the real issue for Detroit is our #7 D is just as good as Doughty. Guess someone should call Blashill and let him know

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

i dont know why the supporters of the contract are derailing the thread and posting non sense

brendan freaking smith the guy who had 60% offensive zone starts which is more then a lot of offensive wingers in the game gee i wonder why he had good corsi.....

 

[Frk It]

i dont know why the supporters of the contract are derailing the thread and posting non sense

brendan freaking smith the guy who had 60% offensive zone starts which is more then a lot of offensive wingers in the game gee i wonder why he had good corsi.....

People knocking it are posting even more non-sense, citing deals that are primarily RFA years as comparables (when they're not), and HERO charts which are trash without context for defenseman (and arguably even WITH context).

 

[jacks*]

Pretty sure he's already taking the #1 spot from Kronwall. He's a solid shut down D man but i do agree he needs to work on his offense for the much he should be at least a 35-40 point per season for these next 6 years or so.

If DeKeyser is your new #1 guy than you in deep do do.

 

[bleedblue1223]

i dont know why the supporters of the contract are derailing the thread and posting non sense

brendan freaking smith the guy who had 60% offensive zone starts which is more then a lot of offensive wingers in the game gee i wonder why he had good corsi.....

People knocking it are posting even more non-sense, citing deals that are primarily RFA years as comparables (when they're not), and HERO charts which are trash without context for defenseman (and arguably even WITH context).

That and proving the nonsense of why people think DD is a bad defenseman.

 

[Frk It]

Pretty sure he's already taking the #1 spot from Kronwall. He's a solid shut down D man but i do agree he needs to work on his offense for the much he should be at least a 35-40 point per season for these next 6 years or so.

Kronwall was never utilized for less than 1 PP min a game. Dekeyser is not used how Kronwall was, and Dekeyser will never be Kronwall.

Not really sure how people use #1 defenseman, but you can't be a #1 defenseman and not play on the PP. Dekeyser will lead our team in TOI/G most likely, but that does not make him a #1 defenseman. He sure as hell isn't one, and this is coming from a Red Wings fan.

 

[Ezekial]

i dont know why the supporters of the contract are derailing the thread and posting non sense

brendan freaking smith the guy who had 60% offensive zone starts which is more then a lot of offensive wingers in the game gee i wonder why he had good corsi.....

Charts comparing Polak and DDK were made in a vacuum though?

 

[Igor Shestyorkin]

People seem so defensive over this deal just because others don't like it.

 

[bleedblue1223]

People seem so defensive over this deal just because others don't like it.

We can't have a healthy discussion over why it's good or bad? Isn't that the point of this board?

 

[Igor Shestyorkin]

We can't have a healthy discussion over why it's good or bad? Isn't that the point of this board?

You call the past few pages "healthy discussion"? Seems more like arguments and hostile commenting to me.

It seems purely nonsensical at this point.

HERO charts aren't the end all be all either, but neither is the eye test nor are zone starts.

 

[bleedblue1223]

You call the past few pages "healthy discussion"? Seems more like arguments and hostile commenting to me.

It seems purely nonsensical at this point.

HERO charts aren't the end all be all either, but neither is the eye test nor are zone starts.

I wouldn't really call any of this hostile, I've been apart of hostile stuff on here. Advanced stats on HF are like politics in real life. People have clear sides on certain things and will never change their view on them. There are certain things that the 2 sides can discuss, my last lengthy post attempted to discuss those points.

As for the bottom part, I don't think anyone is saying that. It does seem like that when one side does post hero charts without context, or other stats without context. That's the problem. And if you think my whole argument is zone starts and eye tests, then you are unfortunately missing the point.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Yeah, but I guess the real issue for Detroit is our #7 D is just as good as Doughty. Guess someone should call Blashill and let him know

Detroit can clearly afford to massively overpay a bum like Dekeyser when they have a Doughty as their #7 on a cheap contract.

 

[Johnny HFBOARDS]

This signing is a good measuring stick for Detroit to measure future sticks that they plan to measure out for various long terms of other things.

This signing will have no bearing on other transactions of any other team in the NHL, ever.

 

[plymouthmi]

I don't understand all the comments that he's an average 2nd pairing D, not to mention whoever called him a 3rd pairing D. Of course, I think he's a lot better defensively than a lot of people here seem to. But even just going by points, in 2014-2015 he had 31 points which was 48th amongst defensemen. Last year was a down year for him, I thought, and I see no reason he can't get back to his 2014-2015 level or the year before when he had 23 points in 65 games.