News Article: Delete

[danielpalfredsson]

I thought the Ekblad extension was nuts at the time but I digress, Dahlin has been called the best D prospect since Hedman, who signed a bridge at something like 4 or 5. Karlsson literally had a Norris winning season prior to signing his deal (though he'd yet to be announced as the winner). I'm not saying a big deal in the ~7.5 mil range is out of the question if everything goes right for him, but 10 mil is straight up bonkers imo. You're basically setting his baseline as top 10 Dman in the league by the time he turns 21 years (that's pretty much what all your comparables accomplished) old and he can only be better than that, no room for a slower progression like Hedman had. I guess it all depends on inflation, if the cap is 100 mil by then, 10% of the cap is reasonable if he has a norris finalist season (that's what Karlsson did to get a 10% of the cap deal, Pietrangelo finished 4th the year prior to signing his deal), but if the cap ends up at 100 mil, the floor is likely around 80 mil, so Melnyk's budget will be forced upward.

TBL contracts should never be used as comparable contracts. They get to live in some sort of fantasy land where Steve Yzerman has players taking amazing bridge deals, and then thanking him for it by taking hometown discounts on their UFA contracts.

The established norm for blue chip defenders on 7-8 year contracts is about 10 percent of the cap. While there was sticker shock to Ekblad's contract, it was in line with what Doughty, Pietrangelo, Karlsson all received. While it's possible that Dahlin may not reach that ceiling, he seems to be the most hyped defender since Doughty, so it's something that has to be considered.

The next tier of defenders usually sign for around 8 percent of the cap give or take a little bit, so even if he doesn't reach a level where he can be considered on the same tier as the best young defenders to break into the league, he's still probably looking at 6.5ish on an 85 million dollar cap.

I don't think establishing that the Senators would have to prepare for Dahlin living up to his pre-draft reputation is out of line.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I recall hearing there was interest in Smith, so unless that was just the Sens ministry of propaganda spreading lies, I would assume Dorion has chosen to hold on to Smith either hoping for a better offer, or because he has decided he's more valuable to the team than what was offered.

I like Smith, but with his play this season, I don't think the team is in a position to risk holding on to a pricier veteran who might decline. With our budget, I think a good policy is to cut bait on non-core players and not take the risk hoping they'll bounce back, even if we risk selling low.

Considering we do not have any 2nd or 3rd round picks in the draft, I wouldn't be surprised if we are going to finish what we started at the deadline in terms of selling off some of our guys at the draft. So....maybe Smith gets dealt then.

 

[branch]

I'd trade Smith for a ham sandwhich

Damn. Ham sandwich sounds good right now. I had a light lunch

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Na. Like I've said before, Smith will have no value in the off season. Teams will just be looking to the FA market to get 3rd/4th liners. Only time plugs like him are worth anything in the trade market is at the deadline when teams are loading up for a run. We're stuck with him unless we pay another team with picks to take him.

Worse news for Doron is that teams heavily scouted out guys especially Smith when we indicated we were selling. Word probably got around about he had he is.

 

[branch]

NCC said the goal was for construction to begin in 12-24 months. Not sure if by construction, they meant cleanup, or actual construction. Rogers Place was built in 2.5 years, so best case scenario is probably 3.5 or so years, but more likely 4 to 5 years for the new arena.

This is Ottawa. This is at least a 5 year initiative. It's taking us 10 years to renovate Parliament. The British are doing their (much bigger) Parliament in 6.

 

[Gandalf The Habs Fan]

Habs fan here! Im happy for you. I know its hurts when you lose the face of your franchise. I hope it doesn't happen for you..

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Habs fan here! Im happy for you. I know its hurts when you lose the face of your franchise. I hope it doesn't happen for you..

Thank you for the kind words, it's interesting to be able to have a personal account of the fallout from the Desharnais trade.

 

[Gandalf The Habs Fan]

Thank you for the kind words, it's interesting to be able to have a personal account of the fallout from the Desharnais trade.

Don't forget Michel Therrien too...

 

[PoutineSp00nZ]

We can't afford Draisaitl @ 8.5, Karlsson @ 12.5, Duchene and Stone probably at 8M, and then Ryan at 7.5M, along with the possibility of still paying Gaborik.

Any trade made at the draft has to be made with the idea of fixing our salary structure so that we can be competitive eventually under the restraints Melnyk imposes on the team. There's no easy fix. If we get Dahlin, we'll probably use Karlsson to potentially dump Ryan and also bring in other pieces that will be used to build a team around Dahlin.

In a perfect world, we'd keep Karlsson, Dahlin, and then have the best top 4 in the league for a decade....but we don't live in a perfect world.

I doubt karlsson goes for 12.

10 seems reasonable.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I doubt karlsson goes for 12.

10 seems reasonable.

10 seems low to me considering the cap is set to rise the highest it has in a very long time, and Karlsson validated Doughty's comments about wanting more than Subban who received 9.5M under a much lower cap.

The equivalent to Subban's contract under the expected 80M cap would be just a shade under 10.5M.

I don't think it's a lock Karlsson gets 12.5, but that's his ceiling, and it wouldn't be outlandish he asks for it. That ceiling could go up depending on what Tavares gets, and if Tavares pushes contracts forward more than McDavid did.

I'd say 10.5-12.5 is a fair range currently. 10.5 would be bordering on a home town discount, which is something Karlsson said he won't do with the Senators. It's only remotely plausible to me because we can offer that 8th year and other teams cannot.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[TonySoprano11]

If the team is truly this bad without Karlsson, maybe it's not such a bad thing to trade him? I mean, we're essentially playing the game of "all eggs in one basket." If Karlsson can fetch us 2-3 good roster players +, wouldn't that actually make the team better than putting all our hopes and dreams in one guy?

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Na. Like I've said before, Smith will have no value in the off season. Teams will just be looking to the FA market to get 3rd/4th liners. Only time plugs like him are worth anything in the trade market is at the deadline when teams are loading up for a run. We're stuck with him unless we pay another team with picks to take him.

Worse news for Doron is that teams heavily scouted out guys especially Smith when we indicated we were selling. Word probably got around about he had he is.

Ya I would think the trade chatter was fed from the team to try to drive some attention/interest in him. I don't understand why we wouldn't have gotten out from under that contract otherwise.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

If the team is truly this bad without Karlsson, maybe it's not such a bad thing to trade him? I mean, we're essentially playing the game of "all eggs in one basket." If Karlsson can fetch us 2-3 good roster players +, wouldn't that actually make the team better than putting all our hopes and dreams in one guy?

I think long term (3-5 years down the line) we have the opportunity to make the team better by trading Karlsson, but that's only because of the handicaps our ownership makes our team operate under, and how I don't think there is an opportunity for us to be competitive with Karlsson at market value, all the dead money we have on the books, and with the cap rising in record rates what is becoming a near cap floor budget. (assuming our budget doesn't rise, which is a fair assumption to make given the guy in charge of our budget has claimed cutting the player salary budget would be his next course of action if fans don't give him more money)

Realistically, Karlsson has more impact than any other play in the league and can play half the game. So there shouldn't be a situation where trading him makes sense if he wants to stay at market value. But, given our team's unique (and awful) situation, we are probably better off trading Karlsson and rebuilding.

 

[PoutineSp00nZ]

10 seems low to me considering the cap is set to rise the highest it has in a very long time, and Karlsson validated Doughty's comments about wanting more than Subban who received 9.5M under a much lower cap.

The equivalent to Subban's contract under the expected 80M cap would be just a shade under 10.5M.

I don't think it's a lock Karlsson gets 12.5, but that's his ceiling, and it wouldn't be outlandish he asks for it. That ceiling could go up depending on what Tavares gets, and if Tavares pushes contracts forward more than McDavid did.

I'd say 10.5-12.5 is a fair range currently. 10.5 would be bordering on a home town discount, which is something Karlsson said he won't do with the Senators. It's only remotely plausible to me because we can offer that 8th year and other teams cannot.

Yeah 10 is on the low end. I dunno, 10.5 might be more accurate.

It all depends on Karlsson i guess. If he wants to get as much money as possible, or sacrifice a million or two to help whatever team he ends up on remain as competitive as possible.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

This is my main concern.

At this point, it feels like Melnyk is holding the team hostage.

I'm not sure I can buy into the black and white idea that it's his business, and he is entitled to run it as he pleases. This isn't a Denny's franchise. It's an integral part of our city and our community, and a certain responsibility comes with that. There's a certain level of commitment required to running an NHL team properly.

 

[aragorn]

Why would Karlsson settle for $10 mil when he could probably get $12 mil or more somewhere else? Who thought McDavid at such a young age would get $12 mil? What happens if Doughty or Tavares sign for $12.5 mil per yr? IMO EK asks for more than $12 mil per season for a max of 8 seasons & PD offers $10 to $12 mil at the most & EM says we can't afford him. Then they spend the rest of the summer trying to move him before the season starts.

Who's fault would it be then, the cheapskate owner who won't meet the player's demands or the player who wants more than the team can afford? Who would the fans support in this scenario? Would fans forgive EM for not agreeing to EK's demands or will he be vilified even further for not paying what EK wants?

It seems like a lose/lose scenario for EM, he either loses a ship load of money or he loses the best player in franchise history. What would you do? I'd trade him, no question, in fact, I'd trade him rather than give him $10 mil., it's just too much for a team that IMO should be re-building. I think the majority of fans understand the situation in Ottawa being a small market team in a city with few corporate sponsors that have to work under a tight financial budget & would understand that EK could price himself outside the team's budget limitations. It's pretty easy to form an opinion when it's not your money to spend & this team has been losing attendance all yr long with Karlsson in the lineup. Will the attendance improve if Karlsson is re-signed for $12 mil & the team still sucks? Is it a ruse or is it reality?

 

[RedWhiteBlackGold]

McDavid despite being on the third worst Western team (7th overall) put up 103 points and counting..

Karlssson has 62 in 71 games on the 2nd worst overall team.

I thought the east was always more offensive than the west. Despite that McDavid only got paid 3,9 with bonuses this season ?

I don't want to compare the two as one is the new Crosby of the league and one is on par with the current Crosby of the league.

 

[Simplicity]

TBL contracts should never be used as comparable contracts. They get to live in some sort of fantasy land where Steve Yzerman has players taking amazing bridge deals, and then thanking him for it by taking hometown discounts on their UFA contracts.

The established norm for blue chip defenders on 7-8 year contracts is about 10 percent of the cap. While there was sticker shock to Ekblad's contract, it was in line with what Doughty, Pietrangelo, Karlsson all received. While it's possible that Dahlin may not reach that ceiling, he seems to be the most hyped defender since Doughty, so it's something that has to be considered.

The next tier of defenders usually sign for around 8 percent of the cap give or take a little bit, so even if he doesn't reach a level where he can be considered on the same tier as the best young defenders to break into the league, he's still probably looking at 6.5ish on an 85 million dollar cap.

I don't think establishing that the Senators would have to prepare for Dahlin living up to his pre-draft reputation is out of line.

My understanding is it has nothing to do with Steve Yzermsn and everything to do with tax rates.

 

[The Lewler]

Why would Karlsson settle for $10 mil when he could probably get $12 mil or more somewhere else? Who thought McDavid at such a young age would get $12 mil? What happens if Doughty or Tavares sign for $12.5 mil per yr? IMO EK asks for more than $12 mil per season for a max of 8 seasons & PD offers $10 to $12 mil at the most & EM says we can't afford him. Then they spend the rest of the summer trying to move him before the season starts.

Who's fault would it be then, the cheapskate owner who won't meet the player's demands or the player who wants more than the team can afford? Who would the fans support in this scenario? Would fans forgive EM for not agreeing to EK's demands or will he be vilified even further for not paying what EK wants?

It seems like a lose/lose scenario for EM, he either loses a ship load of money or he loses the best player in franchise history. What would you do? I'd trade him, no question, in fact, I'd trade him rather than give him $10 mil., it's just too much for a team that IMO should be re-building. I think the majority of fans understand the situation in Ottawa being a small market team in a city with few corporate sponsors that have to work under a tight financial budget & would understand that EK could price himself outside the team's budget limitations. It's pretty easy to form an opinion when it's not your money to spend & this team has been losing attendance all yr long with Karlsson in the lineup. Will the attendance improve if Karlsson is re-signed for $12 mil & the team still sucks? Is it a ruse or is it reality?

So you ship him out, permanently (or at least medium term) guarantee less fans come to the games because they can't believe we just traded away Erik Karlsson, and then you just keep piling up the losses as your attendance craters further.

It's amazing watching people now slowly back away from this guy after what he's done so far in his career, and last spring. I'm not sure if its a defensive or coping mechanism or what.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Why would Karlsson settle for $10 mil when he could probably get $12 mil or more somewhere else? Who thought McDavid at such a young age would get $12 mil? What happens if Doughty or Tavares sign for $12.5 mil per yr? IMO EK asks for more than $12 mil per season for a max of 8 seasons & PD offers $10 to $12 mil at the most & EM says we can't afford him. Then they spend the rest of the summer trying to move him before the season starts.

Who's fault would it be then, the cheapskate owner who won't meet the player's demands or the player who wants more than the team can afford? Who would the fans support in this scenario? Would fans forgive EM for not agreeing to EK's demands or will he be vilified even further for not paying what EK wants?

It seems like a lose/lose scenario for EM, he either loses a ship load of money or he loses the best player in franchise history. What would you do? I'd trade him, no question, in fact, I'd trade him rather than give him $10 mil., it's just too much for a team that IMO should be re-building. I think the majority of fans understand the situation in Ottawa being a small market team in a city with few corporate sponsors that have to work under a tight financial budget & would understand that EK could price himself outside the team's budget limitations. It's pretty easy to form an opinion when it's not your money to spend & this team has been losing attendance all yr long with Karlsson in the lineup. Will the attendance improve if Karlsson is re-signed for $12 mil & the team still sucks? Is it a ruse or is it reality?

If that's the case Dorion really isn't very bright. He goes all in on Duchene , giving up Turris (who he could have got a 1st ++ for at the deadline), a 2017 1st and a 2019 unprotected 1st (resulting from taking the 2018 pick) , knowing you would not have the money to sign Karlsson less than a year later, with Duchene, Stone and Ceci and others going forward needing contracts... Was it a 1 year gamble to go all the way or bust. Well we busted. He should know Karlsson is going to need a significant raise and 10 million is not out of the question. He should also know that trading Karlsson, and what Karlsson has meant to the success on the ice of this team he could not put some make up on and hide the blemish created. It shows absolutely brutal forsight on Dorion's part.

This is not a knock on Duchene .. he's great.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

My understanding is it has nothing to do with Steve Yzermsn and everything to do with tax rates.

It's a bit of both. It's not just the state taxes, or else every low tax team would be equally as successful as Yzerman has been, which is not the case.

Winning and the team culture that has been created is a big part of it. The kind of contracts the Lightning get their players on is absolutely absurd at this point.

Ultimately, my point is that TBL contracts should never be used as comparable contracts because they rarely represent a realistic look at what comparable players might get. There were teams offering Stamkos 12M, he signed for 8.5M in Tampa.

 

[Ray Kinsella]

Why would Karlsson settle for $10 mil when he could probably get $12 mil or more somewhere else? Who thought McDavid at such a young age would get $12 mil? What happens if Doughty or Tavares sign for $12.5 mil per yr? IMO EK asks for more than $12 mil per season for a max of 8 seasons & PD offers $10 to $12 mil at the most & EM says we can't afford him. Then they spend the rest of the summer trying to move him before the season starts.

Who's fault would it be then, the cheapskate owner who won't meet the player's demands or the player who wants more than the team can afford? Who would the fans support in this scenario? Would fans forgive EM for not agreeing to EK's demands or will he be vilified even further for not paying what EK wants?

It seems like a lose/lose scenario for EM, he either loses a ship load of money or he loses the best player in franchise history. What would you do? I'd trade him, no question, in fact, I'd trade him rather than give him $10 mil., it's just too much for a team that IMO should be re-building. I think the majority of fans understand the situation in Ottawa being a small market team in a city with few corporate sponsors that have to work under a tight financial budget & would understand that EK could price himself outside the team's budget limitations. It's pretty easy to form an opinion when it's not your money to spend & this team has been losing attendance all yr long with Karlsson in the lineup. Will the attendance improve if Karlsson is re-signed for $12 mil & the team still sucks? Is it a ruse or is it reality?

Personally, I feel that if they can’t work out a deal (and I hope they do), we’ll likely never know all the details.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Personally, I feel that if they can’t work out a deal (and I hope they do), we’ll likely never know all the details.

lol

 

[Ray Kinsella]

lol

Happy to bring a laughter to your day.