CXLVI - Future of Coyotes up in air after Tempe rejects arena deal - will remain at Mullet Arena for 2023-24, looking at Fiesta Mall site in Mesa

[Boris Zubov]

Nobody talks about it because the concept is that they need the other revenue streams in the short term while they stabilize and finally grow the fan base. The “at this point” you end the post with is the whole point. Phoenix has the potential to be a viable market, but it needs the right treatment.

If you look at a team like the Nashville Predators, they did struggle financially for a while. What really turned things around was the market-specific marketing campaign (Hockey-Tonk, Smashville, etc) that started up under new ownership and coincided with the team feeling like more than just a bubble team in the late-00s, early-10s. That was when the Predators gained the reputation for the loud fans and building they have now. It was generated by the way the team was marketed.

The thing is, marketing like that only works when you have a good building to pull the fans into and it also takes a few years to build some momentum with it. I thought I remembered seeing that Meruelo & co do have a plan to do this kind of thing, but the fact that they really haven’t done it yet suggests that they’re not going to spend the money on it until they’re in the new building.

Eventually, the Coyotes themselves should become profitable on their own. All the other revenue streams are the short-term buoys.

It's been almost 30 years. How much larger of a sample size do we need?

 

[Tawnos]

It’s interesting you bring up Nashville, as it’s exactly what Vegas and Seattle have done. Others are going there as well. Take to the personality of the market.

I think Nashville, and to a lesser extent Dallas, are the models for this. Not that Dallas hasn’t done it as well.. but more that Nashville had the more difficult challenge because of the smaller market.

 

[GKJ]

I think Nashville, and to a lesser extent Dallas, are the models for this. Not that Dallas hasn’t done it as well.. but more that Nashville had the more difficult challenge because of the smaller market.

Yeah, Dallas did do that. You see it play well when they do the outdoor games. It’s something they have to do compared to northeast teams who will just go along with it because sports are part of the personality.

 

[Tawnos]

It's been 30 years. How much larger of a sample size do we need?

A statement like that misses the point I was making entirely. The market has never once gotten the Nashville treatment from any ownership group.

I say this a lot on this board whenever market viability comes up. When growing a new market, it’s not simply a matter of putting a team there and giving it time. It takes a lot of work and it takes the right approach. Part of the problem in Phoenix is that they’ve never gotten a whole lot of either.

 

[Stumbledore]

Unless you’re like on the level of the top franchises in your sport, if your team sucks, people ain’t watching. NFL doesn’t count. Just how it is.

I think you put your finger right on the problem.

All teams suck at various times, it's the nature of sport. In Canada, fans watch and engage with their team even at their worst suckage. In America, fans ignore the team and it goes bankrupt.

The Leafs have sucked for decades and still make tons of money.

 

[Boris Zubov]

A statement like that misses the point I was making entirely. The market has never once gotten the Nashville treatment from any ownership group.

I say this a lot on this board whenever market viability comes up. When growing a new market, it’s not simply a matter of putting a team there and giving it time. It takes a lot of work and it takes the right approach. Part of the problem in Phoenix is that they’ve never gotten a whole lot of either.

The only way to do that is to punt & try again. There are too many negatives that people immediately associate when the Coyotes are mentioned. The market might work & I'm not convinced it would, but they would need to re-enter the league with favorable conditions like Vegas & Seattle were granted. Run a real season ticket drive like those two teams did to gauge interest before committing to the process.

Other than that, it's too late. This franchise has left behind too much scorched earth.

 

[Brent Burns]

Just wanted to pop in and say I should have been frequenting this subforum for many years now. Having adult discussions in the main forum is like pulling teeth.

 

[Brent Burns]

It's been almost 30 years. How much larger of a sample size do we need?

What the Coyotes did in the past was not what other new franchises have done since that time. The ”new franchise formula “ has become a bit more streamlined now, using the internet as a promotional tool. You can guarantee, if nothing else, the league will insist they promote the team in a similar manner to SEA, VGK, etc. It will draw interest. “If you build it [properly], they will come” when dealing with large metropolitan areas.

 

[Hammahtime]

I do wonder how/if the complaints to the players association will factor in to this. That is beyond the arena situation, makes the situation a a whole look bad.

We knew the coyotes were a means to an end, but this shows they were cutting corners with taking care of the day to day while focusing on a failed arena proposal.

 

[Xelebes]

Anyone who talks about contracting a franchise is not in tune with reality. The NHL would never ever allow that to happen, as it would bludgeon franchise values.

Which is exactly why it is going to happen.

 

[tucker3434]

I think you put your finger right on the problem.

All teams suck at various times, it's the nature of sport. In Canada, fans watch and engage with their team even at their worst suckage. In America, fans ignore the team and it goes bankrupt.

The Leafs have sucked for decades and still make tons of money.

That’s the Leafs. They’ve had 100+ years to build a fan base. As for the rest of Canada, about half don’t sell out. A couple had pretty poor attendance this year. Supporting a loser is the exception even in Canada.

 

[jigglysquishy]

That’s the Leafs. They’ve had 100+ years to build a fan base.

This just shows a fundamental misunderstanding of hockey history.

There was an existing hockey base in pre Leafs. Toronto became hockey mad 15 years before the NHA came into existence. The Leafs became a team because Toronto was so hockey crazy. For every American team it was the other way around.

There are only 6 teams where the hockey love predates professional hockey coming into the market. Every other team has had to create that fandom.

They're just fundamentally different markets.

 

[Stumbledore]

Just wanted to pop in and say I should have been frequenting this subforum for many years now. Having adult discussions in the main forum is like pulling teeth.

I can't help equating your pulling teeth comment with that super-cool avatar...

 

[Boris Zubov]

What the Coyotes did in the past was not what other new franchises have done since that time. The ”new franchise formula “ has become a bit more streamlined now, using the internet as a promotional tool. You can guarantee, if nothing else, the league will insist they promote the team in a similar manner to SEA, VGK, etc. It will draw interest. “If you build it [properly], they will come” when dealing with large metropolitan areas.

The fact is the Yotes weren't a new team, so the new franchise formula didn't apply. They were relocated to Phoenix as an afterthought when the league had nowhere else to put them. They started off life on the wrong foot when they were shoehorned into a building that wasn't suitable for hockey long term. Every time they gained some traction with the fanbase, something would happen that would cause them to take two steps back. Since the bankruptcy, the only positive has been the 2012 WCFs.

This is why many have speculated that leaving the market for a period of time & coming back with an expansion team might be the best way forward in the region. Bettman just can't seem to let go, however.

 

[Stumbledore]

You haven't yet been approached to build an 18,000 person arena in the basement of that property?

You made my morning. Your comment caused such an outburst that Mrs. Wizard left her office to come down the hall and ask what had me laughing.

Nope, haven't been approached yet, but my place is way to hell and gone up on East Summit north of the reserve. The traffic on Shea would be a real bottleneck so I don't expect too many offers. And with 6 bedrooms and only 5.5 bathrooms it's not like I could hold a hockey crowd, even one as small as the Mullet.

Now, if my lots in Goodyear were a little closer to each other I could maybe interest Meruelo in a great site...

 

[TheLegend]

The fact is the Yotes weren't a new team, so the new franchise formula didn't apply. They were relocated to Phoenix as an afterthought when the league had nowhere else to put them. They started off life on the wrong foot when they were shoehorned into a building that wasn't suitable for hockey long term. Every time they gained some traction with the fanbase, something would happen that would cause them to take two steps back. Since the bankruptcy, the only positive has been the 2012 WCFs.

This is why many have speculated that leaving the market for a period of time & coming back with an expansion team might be the best way forward in the region. Bettman just can't seem to let go, however.

And you’ve noticed how well the recent speculation about Atlanta is being perceived.

 

[Boris Zubov]

And you’ve noticed how well the recent speculation about Atlanta is being perceived.

I feel like opinions have been mixed on Atlanta #3. Honestly I don't know if that strategy works for either market.

 

[tucker3434]

This just shows a fundamental misunderstanding of hockey history.

There was an existing hockey base in pre Leafs. Toronto became hockey mad 15 years before the NHA came into existence. The Leafs became a team because Toronto was so hockey crazy. For every American team it was the other way around.

There are only 6 teams where the hockey love predates professional hockey coming into the market. Every other team has had to create that fandom.

They're just fundamentally different markets.

The exact age or history of leaf fandom was not the point of my post.

They’re effectively a perfect fan base from a business perspective, but both them and the Habs are a bit of a unicorn, even in Canada. Waning interest during lean years is not an issue that is unique to the states. I would guess there are 5 markets in the NHL that would do well financially with the amount of success the yotes have had the last decade or so.

Edit: Basically, I don’t think it’s fair to pin the Yotes failure on the fans for not supporting a bad product in a sport that’s, comparatively, much newer to them than anything else in the market. Of course they’re not going to look like the leafs.

 

[aqib]

The fact is the Yotes weren't a new team, so the new franchise formula didn't apply. They were relocated to Phoenix as an afterthought when the league had nowhere else to put them. They started off life on the wrong foot when they were shoehorned into a building that wasn't suitable for hockey long term. Every time they gained some traction with the fanbase, something would happen that would cause them to take two steps back. Since the bankruptcy, the only positive has been the 2012 WCFs.

This is why many have speculated that leaving the market for a period of time & coming back with an expansion team might be the best way forward in the region. Bettman just can't seem to let go, however.

I don't know that they really didn't have anywhere else to go. Given that a year earlier Nashville was trying to get the Devils and a year later Carolina got the Whalers while Houston tried to steal the Oilers that's at least 3 other cities they could have gone to. They were about $20 million apart with St Paul (they wanted $40 million in renovations to the Civic Center and St Paul offered $20 million). That would have made more sense.

The best thing now is to move the team and then about 10 years from now when the Suns need a new arena put an expansion team there.

 

[jigglysquishy]

The exact age or history of leaf fandom was not the point of my post.

They’re effectively a perfect fan base from a business perspective, but both them and the Habs are a bit of a unicorn, even in Canada. Waning interest during lean years is not an issue that is unique to the states. I would guess there are 5 markets in the NHL that would do well financially with the amount of success the yotes have had the last decade or so.

The Oilers are absolutely in that category too. They sold out every game on 2014-15 (year before McDavid) despite missing the playoffs 9 years in a row. That's including last in their division 6 of the previous 9 years. It's a run as bad as it can get and they still sold out every gamr at higher prices than any Coyotes season. Flames realistically are too.

It shows the stability value of going into an existing hockey market.

 

[tucker3434]

The Oilers are absolutely in that category too. They sold out every game on 2014-15 (year before McDavid) despite missing the playoffs 9 years in a row. That's including last in their division 6 of the previous 9 years. It's a run as bad as it can get and they still sold out every gamr at higher prices than any Coyotes season. Flames realistically are too.

It shows the stability value of going into an existing hockey market.

The oilers have been on shaky ground in my lifetime. Flames kinda too but this new arena probably resolves all that. They’re really good markets. I don’t think they’re the very best.

I think it shows the value of going into an existing big hockey market. Canada is out of those.

 

[StreetHawk]

I don't know that they really didn't have anywhere else to go. Given that a year earlier Nashville was trying to get the Devils and a year later Carolina got the Whalers while Houston tried to steal the Oilers that's at least 3 other cities they could have gone to. They were about $20 million apart with St Paul (they wanted $40 million in renovations to the Civic Center and St Paul offered $20 million). That would have made more sense.

The best thing now is to move the team and then about 10 years from now when the Suns need a new arena put an expansion team there.

Suns got a $260 mill reno around 2020. New lease added 15 years on top of the one that was due to expire in 2022. Lease is then due up in 2037.

Only way another nhl team lands in PHX is if the owner of the suns at the time wants one. Not every nba is going to be like the ones making noise like in Sacramento and Utah about a team. Others like in Houston, Atl, Mil, have been quiet to lukewarm on the idea.

 

[LPHabsFan]

It's been almost 30 years. How much larger of a sample size do we need?

They're talking about going back to Atlanta. They desperately want Houston. They believe in one thing and one thing only. The ability to sell people on belief. It's what made them go to these places in the first place. It's what's kept them there for so long despite ample evidence of failure. It's what they're still selling. People will buy belief over data. It's the American way after all.

 

[tucker3434]

They're talking about going back to Atlanta. They desperately want Houston. They believe in one thing and one thing only. The ability to sell people on belief. It's what made them go to these places in the first place. It's what's kept them there for so long despite ample evidence of failure. It's what they're still selling. People will buy belief over data. It's the American way after all.

2 of the top 3 teams in attendance this year were in the southeast. That’s data. Southern hockey can work. They’ve just got to win an occasional game to get people to buy in.

 

[sh724]

This just shows a fundamental misunderstanding of hockey history.

There was an existing hockey base in pre Leafs. Toronto became hockey mad 15 years before the NHA came into existence. The Leafs became a team because Toronto was so hockey crazy. For every American team it was the other way around.

There are only 6 teams where the hockey love predates professional hockey coming into the market. Every other team has had to create that fandom.

They're just fundamentally different markets.

And which 6 teams would that be?