Prospect Info: Current #2 overall poll and discussion

[Hisch13r]

I absolutely would rank Wright 1st as well. I think his combo of ceiling + safety is the best bet.

I'm just saying that I think the production concerns of Slafkovsky should equally apply to Cooley. I don't see him as a true 1st overall calibre prospect either. I think it would be pretty reasonable to rate Nemec in the same tier, or perhaps even higher than both of them.

I go Jiricek, Cooley, Nemec, Slaf. Close between Jiricek and Cooley then a slight gap to Nemec and Slaf which is also close. I wouldn’t say they equally apply since Cooley’s is at least still comparable to guys while Slaf’s is lower

 

[StevenToddIves]

Cooley is the guy he rated as having the best tools in the ranking he just put out a couple weeks ago. mUh SiZe wins out I guess

Pronman's "tools" ratings are decidedly sketchy and have been criticized at length everywhere. If we're talking skating? Yes, Cooley is second in the entire draft after only Brad Lambert. But in terms of Cooley's other main strengths -- passing vision and puckhandling -- Cooley would still rank slightly behind Slafkovsky and Wright. I think all three are close in intangibles of IQ/compete, but Wright is certainly the top combo there. In two-way play I'd rank Cooley above Slafkovsky but below Wright. In shooting, Cooley is a far third, and also far third in physicality/interior play.

All in all, I'd say Cooley's tool kit is clearly third of the three and his upside is clearly third of the three. Cooley is outstanding in terms of the combo of high-upside/high-floor, but if we're talking upside alone I'm not sure Cooley is in the conversation here, not just with Wright and Slafkovsky but also with Miroshnichenko or Lambert.

I don't think it's size. With big players, I like to ask: where would they be drafted if they were averaged sized? Like, if Slafkovsky were the same across the board but was 6'0-180, would he go in the 1st round? I'd say yes, but likely in the 20s.

But we can do the same with Cooley and ask: if he were an average skater, would he go in the first round? The answer is a flat-out no. Cooley is a tremendous passer and puck handler with a very good all-around game, but the name of his game is speed and pace. Without the elite skating, he's likely a 2nd/3rd round pick.

As it stands, Slafkovsky is 6'4-220 and Cooley is fast as hell. But skills wise, I'm not sure Cooley is quite on the same tier as Wright/Slafkovsky. He's still a good pick in the top 5, but I also wouldn't give him consideration for the top 2. Again, we can critique Slaf's stats over 20-25 games in Liiga all we want and critique Wright's lack of dominating the OHL all we want, but we can similarly argue that Cooley wasn't a top 3 player on his own US-NTDP team.

It's not an unfair suggestion, it's a legitimate debate. Cooley was a hair above in PPG, but did not offer the two-way game or versatility of Nazar or McGroarty, or the physical dominance of Gauthier. Howard led the team in scoring. You can order those 5 forwards in any order and have a good argument, to be honest. This is not slagging Cooley -- these are all great players, and honestly it's incredibly close. I would say McGroarty had the best season, but lacks the upside because of skating limitations. In terms of raw upside, I'd say Nazar has the most.

My point is, it's not just size. Every one of the top prospects has questions, but I agree with Pronman that the top tier of forwards is essentially just Wright and Slafkovsky.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Passing remark from Pronman about Cooley's production. I had mentioned it earlier in one of the main board threads that I thought Cooley's production was a bit worrying actually. If some draft pundits do believe him to be perhaps the most talented (or have the most potential) in the draft, you'd expect USNTDP production more in line with a 1st overall selection like Jack Hughes. Cooley is sitting more in the Keller/Turcotte/Zegras/Wahlstrom range - none of whom were ever in consideration for the pinnacle of their draft classes.

We must also factor in that of the four US-NTDP-ers you mentioned, only Keller was the focal point of the team's offense. Turcotte and Zegras were pinched below the best US-NTDP-18 prospect ever in Jack Hughes, and Wahlstrom was one of many talented wings on his own team.

This year, Cooley was the #1 offensively deployed C while McGroarty -- who scored just as well as Cooley -- got the much more challenging defensive assignments and rarely played with the top scoring wingers. Nazar and Gauthier were used in versatile roles, often flipping from C to W and from line to line.

Again, I'm a huge fan of Cooley, I'm just stating there's no clear answer to "who was the best forward on the 2021-22 US-NTDP?" or even "which US-NTDP forward has the most NHL upside?"

 

[bossram]

I go Jiricek, Cooley, Nemec, Slaf. Close between Jiricek and Cooley then a slight gap to Nemec and Slaf which is also close. I wouldn’t say they equally apply since Cooley’s is at least still comparable to guys while Slaf’s is lower

I'm not as high on Jiricek. I don't think he's in the same boat personally as the others named here. I think Jiricek's lower mobility will limit his upside at the NHL level.

We know Slafv's international performances have been strong, so really we'd want to know a bit more about his play in Liiga - where his production is a bit lacking.

Luckily, Liiga does have some advanced stats we can look into (the site is pretty clunky though). His Corsi Close% was 51.8%, which was about mid-pack for TPS players. I'd say that's probably a good sign for a 17-year-old in a professional league. His PDO was 99, with a lot of that owing to a 4.3% on-ice shooting %, so I think it's safe to say that Slafv was probably due for some better production. He also had a 5.6% personal shooting %, which I don't think tracks with a guy of his skill level.

Interestingly, Kemell had a Corsi Close of 41.3%, which ranked near the bottom of JYP skaters, for comparison.

 

[Hisch13r]

I'm not as high on Jiricek. I don't think he's in the same boat personally as the others named here. I think Jiricek's lower mobility will limit his upside at the NHL level.

We know Slafv's international performances have been strong, so really we'd want to know a bit more about his play in Liiga - where his production is a bit lacking.

Luckily, Liiga does have some advanced stats we can look into (the site is pretty clunky though). His Corsi Close% was 51.8%, which was about mid-pack for TPS players. I'd say that's probably a good sign for a 17-year-old in a professional league. His PDO was 99, with a lot of that owing to a 4.3% on-ice shooting %, so I think it's safe to say that Slafv was probably due for some better production. He also had a 5.6% personal shooting %, which I don't think tracks with a guy of his skill level.

Interestingly, Kemell had a Corsi Close of 41.3%, which ranked near the bottom of JYP skaters, for comparison.

Liiga counts all shot attempts as shots I believe so it isn't actually that low. On ice SH% is probably more like 7-8% which to me would probably make sense for Liiga. I don't doubt he'll be a useful player who can contribute at least somewhat production wise and he'll be a plus possession player. I just don't really buy that he'll hit the crazy upside that he has

Kemell's production was overrated all along. I know a guy like Scouch was saying a ton early on not to buy into the production because he wasn't actually driving great results and the pts were due to a decent amount of luck. People cite the injury as the reason for his drop in production but I think it was coming regardless and that just gives him an excuse Kemell's good but I think he's like a worse version of Holtz. For the people who think I'm only caring about the production I think both Slaf and Lambert are better than Kemell even though their production is complete ass in comparison to other Liiga guys with Kemell being one of them.

 

[ninetyeight]

I think Steven underrates Cooley's twoway game a little, but I definitely agree that all 5 (top usdp forwards) are bound to have success in the NHL and someone is gonna get a real steal in the late round.

 

[bossram]

Liiga counts all shot attempts as shots I believe so it isn't actually that low. On ice SH% is probably more like 7-8% which to me would probably make sense for Liiga. I don't doubt he'll be a useful player who can contribute at least somewhat production wise and he'll be a plus possession player. I just don't really buy that he'll hit the crazy upside that he has

Kemell's production was overrated all along. I know a guy like Scouch was saying a ton early on not to buy into the production because he wasn't actually driving great results and the pts were due to a decent amount of luck. People cite the injury as the reason for his drop in production but I think it was coming regardless and that just gives him an excuse Kemell's good but I think he's like a worse version of Holtz. For the people who think I'm only caring about the production I think both Slaf and Lambert are better than Kemell even though their production is complete ass in comparison to other Liiga guys with Kemell being one of them.

Aaaah that is a strange way of calculating SH%, but I guess it makes sense if consistent. I view Slafv's overall possession numbers as quite encouraging though. I think that raises his floor as an NHLer quite a bit. I don't think any of the top tier of the 2022 draft class screams superstar. But given Slafv's physical tools + high floor, I think the argument to have him 2nd overall is good enough relative to this draft class.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

24 more days

 

[Devs3cups]

24 more days

It was over 50 days when we won the lotto, it’s getting here quick!

 

[Goptor]

I'm not as high on Jiricek. I don't think he's in the same boat personally as the others named here. I think Jiricek's lower mobility will limit his upside at the NHL level.

We know Slafv's international performances have been strong, so really we'd want to know a bit more about his play in Liiga - where his production is a bit lacking.

Luckily, Liiga does have some advanced stats we can look into (the site is pretty clunky though). His Corsi Close% was 51.8%, which was about mid-pack for TPS players. I'd say that's probably a good sign for a 17-year-old in a professional league. His PDO was 99, with a lot of that owing to a 4.3% on-ice shooting %, so I think it's safe to say that Slafv was probably due for some better production. He also had a 5.6% personal shooting %, which I don't think tracks with a guy of his skill level.

Interestingly, Kemell had a Corsi Close of 41.3%, which ranked near the bottom of JYP skaters, for comparison.

I have completely changed my mind on Defensemen over the past couple years. I used to be high on Dmen and If this was 2018, I would have Nemec #2 easily.

Its just that almost all teams use 4f1d power plays now. They even are experimenting with 5f power plays. The PP QB defenseman is dying off. Teams are putting forwards in that role and the only guys keeping their spots are the most talented such as Makar, Fox, and Hughes. I do not see Nemec having better offensive talents than Bratt on the Devils so that pretty much drops him from a 50pt Dman to a 30pt Dman.

The spot that remains on the power play is the big point shot Dman. Thats why Jiricek is getting so much attention compared to the noticeably more talented Nemec. Jiricek is also big and very physical which is exactly what is needed for the modern penalty killer. He'll get big minutes on the PP, big minutes on the PK, and then you hope that his 5on5 game can improve enough to be that 25min+ #1 defenseman.

 

[Devil made me do it]

I would drink two bottles of wine in celebration of us picking Slafkovsky. I have this instinctive gut feeling that this kid is that piece of the puzzle to us reaching the glory days. He makes too much sense and I never see a scenario of him being a bust. Just too much talent and competitiveness.

 

[bossram]

I have completely changed my mind on Defensemen over the past couple years. I used to be high on Dmen and If this was 2018, I would have Nemec #2 easily.

Its just that almost all teams use 4f1d power plays now. They even are experimenting with 5f power plays. The PP QB defenseman is dying off. Teams are putting forwards in that role and the only guys keeping their spots are the most talented such as Makar, Fox, and Hughes. I do not see Nemec having better offensive talents than Bratt on the Devils so that pretty much drops him from a 50pt Dman to a 30pt Dman.

The spot that remains on the power play is the big point shot Dman. Thats why Jiricek is getting so much attention compared to the noticeably more talented Nemec. Jiricek is also big and very physical which is exactly what is needed for the modern penalty killer. He'll get big minutes on the PP, big minutes on the PK, and then you hope that his 5on5 game can improve enough to be that 25min+ #1 defenseman.

Jiricek is unlikely to have the handling/passing/vision to be on 1st PP either, so that kind of mitigates this "big shot" factor. It's not like he's replacing Bratt either. I don't really value defenseman PP production much anyway - it's just a product of getting the ice time there, unless you're a real catalyst like Makar.

I don't think Jiriceck has the mobility to be a real high-end, modern defenseman. One that can advance the puck in transition with skating and passing, and kill plays against early in transition. He probably projects reasonably in the defensive zone. I think Nemec has more of those aforementioned attributes.

 

[Saugus]

I would drink two bottles of wine in celebration of us picking Slafkovsky. I have this instinctive gut feeling that this kid is that piece of the puzzle to us reaching the glory days. He makes too much sense and I never see a scenario of him being a bust. Just too much talent and competitiveness.

The first round of the draft is on a Thursday night. Make sure you have Friday off if you do this.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Jiricek is unlikely to have the handling/passing/vision to be on 1st PP either, so that kind of mitigates this "big shot" factor. It's not like he's replacing Bratt either. I don't really value defenseman PP production much anyway - it's just a product of getting the ice time there, unless you're a real catalyst like Makar.

I don't think Jiriceck has the mobility to be a real high-end, modern defenseman. One that can advance the puck in transition with skating and passing, and kill plays against early in transition. He probably projects reasonably in the defensive zone. I think Nemec has more of those aforementioned attributes.

Jiricek will absolutely be a 1PP option at the NHL level. He's a plus puck-handler and plus-passer, without being particularly high-end in either tool. His shot is elite. He compares in many senses to Aaron Ekblad in that sense. Everything else being good enough, you keep him on the 1PP for the howitzer.

I'll take criticism on any prospect, but I'm not sure where the narrative came from that Jiricek is not good in terms of puck skills.

 

[My3Sons]

Jiricek will absolutely be a 1PP option at the NHL level. He's a plus puck-handler and plus-passer, without being particularly high-end in either tool. His shot is elite. He compares in many senses to Aaron Ekblad in that sense. Everything else being good enough, you keep him on the 1PP for the howitzer.

I'll take criticism on any prospect, but I'm not sure where the narrative came from that Jiricek is not good in terms of puck skills.

How would Jiricek compare to Bouchard on EDM? I see a bit of superficial similarity in my limited viewing but it’s a small sample size and I may be way off.

 

[Nico Hischier]

I don’t want to get to attached to slafkovsky with all these rumors devils are open to trading the pick.

It wouldn’t be a bad idea to draft nemec. Very safe pick. They could sign him and he might be able to play 3rd pair next season. If he is impressive, severson would become expendable.

I also like cutter gauthier and jiricek’s potential a lot.

 

[ref19]

I would drink two bottles of wine in celebration of us picking Slafkovsky. I have this instinctive gut feeling that this kid is that piece of the puzzle to us reaching the glory days. He makes too much sense and I never see a scenario of him being a bust. Just too much talent and competitiveness.

Ha!!

 

[Captain3rdLine]

How would Jiricek compare to Bouchard on EDM? I see a bit of superficial similarity in my limited viewing but it’s a small sample size and I may be way off.

That could actually be a pretty good comparison if Jiricek cleans up a couple things.

 

[glenwo2]

I don’t want to get to attached to slafkovsky with all these rumors devils are open to trading the pick.

Why are you believing Rumors?

Besides, even if that were true, it's called "doing your due diligence".

Just because we're open to trading it doesn't mean we're trading it.

in fact, I doubt we're going to trade it at all and Fitz is just looking to see what a team would offer for it....

 

[Nico Hischier]

Why are you believing Rumors?

Besides, even if that were true, it's called "doing your due diligence".

Just because we're open to trading it doesn't mean we're trading it.

in fact, I doubt we're going to trade it at all and Fitz is just looking to see what a team would offer for it....

I didn’t think we were serious about trading it until that list by pagnotta came out where he says our pick has a 90% chance of being moved. He has been correct about so many things in recent memory.

 

[glenwo2]

I didn’t think we were serious about trading it until that list by pagnotta came out where he says our pick has a 90% chance of being moved. He has been correct about so many things in recent memory.

Okay man. Whatever you say.

I'm just going to patiently wait with no worries that Fitz will moonwalk to the podium and select Slaf.

You can take the word of Pag and worry yourself unnecessarily.

 

[FooteBahl]

Okay man. Whatever you say.

I'm just going to patiently wait with no worries that Fitz will moonwalk to the podium and select Slaf.

You can take the word of Pag and worry yourself unnecessarily.

I would prefer a pimp walk, but you do you, brother.

 

[Lou is God]

I didn’t think we were serious about trading it until that list by pagnotta came out where he says our pick has a 90% chance of being moved. He has been correct about so many things in recent memory.

Where and when did he say this? Link?

 

[Nico Hischier]

Where and when did he say this? Link?

My apologies I mixed up pagnotta and seravalli. Either way I think this guy has been correct on lots of things including all of the expansion draft picks.....



Seravalli released his Daily Faceoff Trade Targets. He expressed during an interview that he feels the players and assets on the top 5 have a 90% chance of getting traded at the draft or sometime in the off-season.

The list:

1. Debrincat
2. Fiala
3. Chychrun
4. JT Miller
5. NJD 2nd overall pick
6. Deangelo
7. Gibson
8. Barrie
9 Zacha
10 Philippe Myers
11. Petry
12. Marino
13. Varlamov
14. Dadanov
15. Pulujarvi/Yamamoto
16. Hornqvist
17. Soucy
18. Dickenson/Pearson
19. Zadina
20. Contracts of Klefbom and Shea Weber

Trade Targets: Chicago's Alex DeBrincat is No. 1 player available ahead of wild NHL offseason - Daily Faceoff

 

[HBK27]

NHL Draft Confidential: What scouts and executives think about the No. 1 pick and more

Who should go No. 1? How high can Cutter Gauthier go? What Corey Pronman is hearing about the top prospects ahead of the 2022 NHL Draft.

theathletic.com

Pronman asked several scouts & executives who they would pick between Wright & Slafkovsky.

Final tally was 8 for Wright and 5 for Slaf.

FORWARDS​

We start at the top. The No. 1 overall pick is the first and arguably biggest debate in the 2022 NHL Draft. Nearly everyone in the NHL world has an opinion about it and this topic dominated a lot of my conversations with league personnel over the last few months. The debate has focused on Kingston center Shane Wright and TPS winger Juraj Slafkovsky in my conversations. There are outlier opinions advocating for USNTDP center Logan Cooley at No. 1, but in my conversations around the league it’s mostly become about Wright vs. Slafkovsky.

So we start off with that looming question: Who would you take if you had the first overall pick in the 2022 draft?

NHL Scout 1: “It’s probably still Wright, but you’re not walking up to the podium excited to call that name.”

Scout 2: “I would take Wright. He didn’t have an amazing season, but it was still an excellent year. You combine that with the full body of work over his last few years and I think he’s the top guy.”

Scout 3: “People are too harsh on Wright because he doesn’t have the flashy highlights. I think he’s a stud. He makes a ton of plays, he can really shoot it, he plays with pace, he’s a great two-way center.”

Scout 4: “I would take Slafkovsky. He’s a difference maker, you saw it at the Hlinka, the Olympics, the Worlds. I’m not sure Wright is a difference maker type of player. There were a lot of games I wondered where the effort and drive to take over the game was from him.”

NHL Executive 1: “Ten months ago it was Wright with a bullet. Now it’s still Wright but you’re not feeling confident about it. He didn’t play like a No. 1 this year, but there’s still a ton to like about the player: You love his body of work. You know you’re getting a well-rounded NHL center at the minimum who can score and there is some star upside at the top.”

Scout 5: “I would take Slafkovsky. At first overall I want unique, scoring dominance and someone who steps up when it counts. He checks all those boxes for me. Look at his Olympics and World Championships and imagine trying to stop this guy game after game in an NHL playoff series. He’s well beyond a goal-scorer — the way he controls the puck and sees the game is special.”

Executive 2: “It’s definitely Wright for me. You look at the body of work between him and the alternatives and it’s not even close. I don’t know where this debate came from all of a sudden.”

Executive 3: “It would be Wright for me. He scored 39 goals as a U16. Nine goals and 14 points at the U18s as an underage. He’s a right-shot center with size, scoring touch and has a two-way game. Slafkovsky has closed the gap but I’m taking Wright and sleeping peacefully that night about it.”

Scout 6: “I would take Slafkovsky. The trajectory there is the deciding factor for me. Slafkovsky keeps getting better and better the more I watch him as time has gone on. Wright seems to have stagnated from where he was as a 15-year-old. This may be what he is.”

Scout 7: “It’s Slafkovsky for me and I don’t think it’s that close. Slafkovsky is a really unique prospect, he’s going to be a game breaker in the NHL.”

Scout 8: “I’m guessing we would pick Wright, and you’re basically hoping this is the next Brandon Saad or Cam Fowler where it was an off draft year but he bounces back right after. You’re probably really scared hoping for that at No. 1 though.”

Scout 9: “It would be Slafkovsky. You look at the upwards trajectory he’s on, you look at what wins in the playoffs and he’s got a lot of it. I think he has a lot more NHL attributes than Wright.”

Executive 4: “I would pick Wright, but I’m somewhat glad we didn’t get the No. 1 pick because there would have been a war in our draft meetings between him and Slafkovsky.”