Prospect Info: Current #2 overall poll and discussion

[StevenToddIves]

I have a few questions to any prospect follower. @StevenToddIves

1) What’s the difference between SHL and the Liiga?

Guys barely score there and are top 5. Example: Raymond.

2) How much do you feel previous experience count?

D-1: Kakko 6gp TPS 38gp U20
Rantanen 37gp TPS 17gp U20
Slafkovsky 0gp TPS 16gp U20

I know the answer. I just think others need to see. Somehow there is still a Canadian bias. Yes, Wright lost a lot of time but so did everyone else. What is crazy to me, this was considered a great draft year last year and the year before. It’s now weak because the prospect struggled but some scouts have 1 round grades well into the second.

It’s unfortunate because our new staff seems to favor playing experience.

The SHL is at a higher level than Liiga, but not overwhelmingly so. It's especially important to consider that Liiga is more physical than the SHL and a bit tighter defensively, while the SHL is faster with more overall skill.

Prior experience always helps, but that's not the issue with Slafkovsky. The issue with Slafkovsky is that his initial 20+ games in Finland saw him in a bottom 6 role with scarce PP time. This was precisely the same issue which affected Lucas Raymond, by the way. It's just really difficult to score in 10 minutes per game with unskilled linemates who mostly think defense-first, especially when you're the youngest guy on your team and trying not to take too many chances which could see your ice-time diminished even more.

Ultimately, Slafkovsky felt going to Finland would improve his overall game the most. Time will tell, but had he decided to come to the CHL, he certainly would have poured in the offense and quieted some of the naysayers.

Still, quieting the naysayers shouldn't be a priority for a teenager. The fact is that most people just jump on the prospect hype-trains a month or two before the draft and the first thing they do is check out the stats, often not knowing the context, as with Slafkovsky. It complicates things when many of the modern so-called "draft analysts" also fall victim to the same faults.

There is certainly a bit of a Canadian bias, but part of this is because most Canadians play in the CHL, which lends itself to good statistics. Meanwhile, the best prospects out of Europe are often playing in pro leagues, which can diminish the statistics. As such, we also must ask ourselves where Yurov, Kasper and Kulich would be ranked were they dominating in the QMJHL or OHL.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Really curious who voted for Savoie hahaha.

 

[Devils090]

If we end up trading this pick for DeBrincat im done with this team until they get new management

 

[Ripshot 43]

If we end up trading this pick for DeBrincat im done with this team until they get new management

As the official assist to the assistant Captain of our fan club, I am here to say, that’s not how being a fan works.

You will sit here and complain on hfboards with the rest of the miserable fans and you will like it.

 

[Sgt Brylin]

Draft Slaf.
Trade for Pulju.
Get a goalie.
Stay the hell away from DeBrincat and Fiala.

 

[Unknown Caller]

Nemec for me in the first poll and still Nemec for me today. I like Slafkovsky, but there’s a realistic chance he just turns into a middle six winger. Nemec is going to be one of the best offensive defensemen in the league.

 

[Devils090]

Draft Slaf.
Trade for Pulju.
Get a goalie.
Stay the hell away from DeBrincat and Fiala.

Hard pass on Pulju too

 

[Guttersniped]

The SHL is at a higher level than Liiga, but not overwhelmingly so. It's especially important to consider that Liiga is more physical than the SHL and a bit tighter defensively, while the SHL is faster with more overall skill.

Prior experience always helps, but that's not the issue with Slafkovsky. The issue with Slafkovsky is that his initial 20+ games in Finland saw him in a bottom 6 role with scarce PP time. This was precisely the same issue which affected Lucas Raymond, by the way. It's just really difficult to score in 10 minutes per game with unskilled linemates who mostly think defense-first, especially when you're the youngest guy on your team and trying not to take too many chances which could see your ice-time diminished even more.

Ultimately, Slafkovsky felt going to Finland would improve his overall game the most. Time will tell, but had he decided to come to the CHL, he certainly would have poured in the offense and quieted some of the naysayers.

Still, quieting the naysayers shouldn't be a priority for a teenager. The fact is that most people just jump on the prospect hype-trains a month or two before the draft and the first thing they do is check out the stats, often not knowing the context, as with Slafkovsky. It complicates things when many of the modern so-called "draft analysts" also fall victim to the same faults.

There is certainly a bit of a Canadian bias, but part of this is because most Canadians play in the CHL, which lends itself to good statistics. Meanwhile, the best prospects out of Europe are often playing in pro leagues, which can diminish the statistics. As such, we also must ask ourselves where Yurov, Kasper and Kulich would be ranked were they dominating in the QMJHL or OHL.

Elite Prospects lists his playing time for the season.

Slafkovsky had 2 games with his U20 team, then in played a lot in his first Liiga 3 games, and had 11 shots, then had his ice time reduced in the next 5 games.

After only one assist in those 8 games they sent him back to U20 for 4 games.

And they did this back and forth more in an attempt to get his offense going.

He had 4G 6A in those 4 U20 games and then 2A in 4 Liiga games, then it was back to the U20 where he has 1G 3A in 3 games.

Then between 11/6-12/11 he couldn’t really produce anywhere.

Two scoreless Liiga games led to him being bounced back to U20 for single games twice.

Then he has a stretch of 5 Liiga games, where he was scored 1 goal, in a game where he played 14 minutes and had 11 shots.

He was sent to WJC-20, but only played 2 games on 12/26-27. He was quite active in those games but was scoreless too.

He had one Liiga game before the Olympics. (He only played -6 minutes but I assume that has something to do with the 25 PIM).

He did play for a pro men’s team and he wasn’t producing, I’m not sure they did anything wrong there. Or at least unexpected.

I’m ok with drafting Slafkovsky in many ways because of his size (gasp). He’s f***ing huge and looks to be at least very usual player.

The predictions about a ton of NHL production here are getting a bit worrisome, I’m not sure of much proof at all he can get there. He’s not an exceptional playmaker or goalscorer, expecting a ton of points is blurring into wishful thinking more than I like.

Not saying it can’t or won’t happen but I have no idea how people can be confident of that aspect without previous record of it. I’m just worried people are going to be disappointed when the if this production doesn’t come reasonably fast or there isn’t a ton of it. His size might make people assume he’s closer than he is.


Juraj Slafkovský at eliteprospects.com

 

[devilsblood]

If we end up trading this pick for DeBrincat im done with this team until they get new management

Don't let fan trade board proposals get you all upset with team mgmt.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Elite Prospects lists his playing time for the season.

Slafkovsky had 2 games with his U20 team, then in played a lot in his first Liiga 3 games, and had 11 shots, then had his ice time reduced in the next 5 games.

After only one assist in those 8 games they sent him back to U20 for 4 games.

And they did this back and forth more in an attempt to get his offense going.

He had 4G 6A in those 4 U20 games and then 2A in 4 Liiga games, then it was back to the U20 where he has 1G 3A in 3 games.

Then between 11/6-12/11 he couldn’t really produce anywhere.

Two scoreless Liiga games led to him being bounced back to U20 for single games twice.

Then he has a stretch of 5 Liiga games, where he was scored 1 goal, in a game where he played 14 minutes and had 11 shots.

He was sent to WJC-20, but only played 2 games on 12/26-27. He was quite active in those games but was scoreless too.

He had one Liiga game before the Olympics. (He only played -6 minutes but I assume that has something to do with the 25 PIM).

He did play for a pro men’s team and he wasn’t producing, I’m not sure they did anything wrong there. Or at least unexpected.

I’m ok with drafting Slafkovsky in many ways because of his size (gasp). He’s f***ing huge and looks to be at least very usual player.

The predictions about a ton of NHL production here are getting a bit worrisome, I’m not sure of home much proof at all he can get there. He’s not an exceptional playmaker or goalscorer, expecting a ton of points is blurring into wishful thinking more than I like.

Not saying it can’t or won’t happen but I have no idea how people can be confident of that aspect without previous record of it. I’m just worried people are going to be disappointed when the if this production doesn’t come reasonably fast or there isn’t a ton of it. His size might make people assume he’s closer than he is.


Juraj Slafkovský at eliteprospects.com

I’m confident the production will come. He’s extremely skilled, is a very good playmaker who literally could’ve had 2-3+ assists in his WC games. And his shot is starting to come along pretty nicely. He has a good release. More velocity and accuracy should come.

This isn’t about his size. Sure that’s part of him but he has an elite skillset and all of the tools to be a star. You don’t need a previous record of LIIGA production at 17 to become a big time NHL producer. Sure it makes everyone feel a little more confident about a prospect but it’s just a small part of the evaluation process and the skillset and projection of the prospect is so much more important.

So many prospects that have produced well before the NHL don’t turn out and lots that don’t do. He has performed and produced very well on the big stage as well. But there isn’t a single prospect out there that has shown “proof” that they can produce at the NHL level. It’s all about projection.

Now he’s not guaranteed to be a big time producer and there’s a chance he doesn’t but he has all the tools and I for one think there’s a damn good chance he could get there.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Really curious who voted for Savoie hahaha.

You can see who voted for who. @xigon voted for him.

Interesting results so far after 110 votes. A large majority for Slaf (80%) with Cooley (9.1%) and a trade (6.4%) getting some support.

 

[xigon]

exposed lol. I voted savoie because he was the worst option available.

 

[My3Sons]

I don’t see a Lovejoy option so I am abstaining.

 

[StevenToddIves]

If we end up trading this pick for DeBrincat im done with this team until they get new management

Fitzgerald hasn't made a single *bad* trade yet. My only worry is that the pressure to improve the team *now* will steer him towards making a move which will hurt the team's future Stanley Cup chances.

I don't mind that Fitzgerald is reportedly kicking the tires on any good available forward -- that's what any good GM would do. But if the price is too high -- and #2 overall is too high for anyone who has been made available yet -- then you hang up the phone and hope the price comes down.

I don't know of any team which has a better core of young forwards than the Devils right now with Hughes, Hischier, Bratt, Mercer, Sharangovich and soon Holtz, Gritsyuk and quite possibly Slafkovsky. There is a nice foundation to build the D around with Hamilton, Siegenthaler and soon Luke Hughes, Mukhamadullin and Okhotyuk. The future is extremely bright.

 

[Guadana]

Slafkovsky over Wright easily. Slafkovsky has much better tool pack for a winger than Wright. I don't want to draft third line center by second pick, especially when my top 6 and top 4 didn't build yet. I would pick Jiricek over Wright and even Nemec too. If we have a shot at Slaf and Wright - trade down. If Slaf is a first pick, trade down and grab Jiricek/Nemec or even trade with Columbus and pick D or Gauthier(who is available).

 

[HBK27]

Wheeler posted his mock draft this morning.

He has:

1. Wright
2. Slafkovsky
3. Cooley
4. Nemec
5. Jiricek
6. Gauthier
7. Kemell
8. Savoie

So, nothing surprising at the top of the order.

Here's the write up for NJ's pick:

2. New Jersey Devils: Juraj Slafkovsky, LW, TPS
My rank: No. 5

With centres Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier and Dawson Mercer all entering or approaching the prime of their careers, and after having drafted a star D prospect in Luke Hughes a year ago, the Devils are in a rare situation where they don’t have to worry about drafting for a premium position. Mix in the belief, held by many, that the Devils need to get bigger (which, I should note, doesn’t stack up with their average height or weight, both of which were in the league’s top 10 last year), and some questions about whether Alexander Holtz will land closer to a 25-goal guy than a 35-plus-goal guy, and the readymade quality of Slafkovsky’s game that won’t require years of waiting for, and he just makes a lot of practical and theoretical sense.

 

[My3Sons]

Slafkovsky over Wright easily. Slafkovsky has much better tool pack for a winger than Wright. I don't want to draft third line center by second pick, especially when my top 6 and top 4 didn't build yet. I would pick Jiricek over Wright and even Nemec too. If we have a shot at Slaf and Wright - trade down. If Slaf is a first pick, trade down and grab Jiricek/Nemec or even trade with Columbus and pick D or Gauthier(who is available).

That would be bold. I expect you will get some pushback on your opinion of Wright. Most seem to like his upside as a prospect.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

 

[Guadana]

That would be bold. I expect you will get some pushback on your opinion of Wright. Most seem to like his upside as a prospect.

If I would be James Htfield, my song would be named "Bold but true".

I saw theirs games. I easily believe Wright could have better career as player... as a center. Im not so high about his two way game and about his board game, I don`t think he can protect the puck through the board as well as Slaf can. Wright is a better shooter, ofcourse, but not only shooting make great winger from a hockey player. That`s not about only puck protection. I`m talking about forechecking, positioning, interior play, creating pressure and play against the pressure etc.
For example, do I think Slaf is a better hockey player than Jack Hughes(2019 year edition), no I`m not and it is not even close. And I think Jack is much better player than Wright. But do I think SLaf has much higher ceiling as a winger than Jack as a winger? Of course. Way much better.

And like I said, I`m not interesting in searching of third line center.

 

[HBK27]

Hopefully I'm not posting too much here, but thought the end of the article would be interesting to those that are not subscribers:

Why I decided on Slafkovsky​

We’ll focus on Wright vs. Slafkovsky to start, which is what I believe the debate is mostly, but not exclusively centers around.

Comparing the pure tools, Wright is a slightly better skater but there’s not much of a difference, though. I think Slafkovsky’s pure puck skills are better, but Wright is a smarter player who makes more plays. Wright also has a higher compete level, leading him to be a solid two-way center. They can both shoot the puck about as well as each other. There is a size differential there, as Slafkovsky is about three inches taller. The amount of categories each has an edge in is about the same, but the gap between Slafkovsky and Wright in terms of size plus skill, is greater than the edge Wright has in terms of IQ plus compete. Thus I think Slafkovsky has the edge in terms of the pure toolkit, which I would characterize as a slight-to-moderate edge.

Comparing how they performed this season, Wright was a top-10 scorer in the OHL, but compared to historical No. 1 CHL picks, his scoring rate wasn’t that high. He made Canada’s U20 team in a top-two center role, but in his brief time with the U20 team between his summer camp and the cancelled world juniors, he didn’t stand out. Slafkovsky didn’t perform close to what you expected for a potential No. 1 pick in Liiga. There were a few times he rose to elite performances, including an MVP performance at the Olympics, and then being a top 15 scorer at the World Championships, both of which were unique feats given his age playing against pros, and at times NHL players at the worlds. Wright’s season overall was more impressive on average, but given Slafkovsky had those big moments where he looked like an elite prospect, I give him the slight edge this season and I can see reasonable arguments either way on this one.

Compared to how they’ve performed over the course of their careers, it’s not close. Wright has been doing unusual things for his age for years and has accumulated many accolades over the past few seasons. Slafkovsky looked very impressive in the 2020-21 season, including being a top player for Slovakia at the world juniors as a 16-year-old and playing for Slovakia’s senior team at the World Championships, but the overall track record is a strong edge to Wright.

Wright also has a positional edge on Slafkovsky, as center is a much-preferred position over a winger. Slafkovsky has dabbled at center over the last few years, but likely projects as an NHL winger.

On the one hand, we have a winger in Slafkovsky whose pure toolkit is superior, and whose high points this season were higher than Wright’s, whereas Wright has the positional edge and has a much longer history of consistency of being a high-level player. This is why in my draft board article I called it a coin flip. There are very good arguments for either player. If I was with a team of evaluators and the majority of my colleagues wanted Wright I wouldn’t put up a fight. I ultimately determined that the higher upside based on Slafkovsky’s tools and the rare signs of truly special performances in this draft class was enough to nudge him ahead of a player like Wright who seemed to flatline a little this season.

Regarding Cooley, he’s a guy you have to consider strongly just due to how unique and how dynamic he is. However, just due to his season and overall track record not being anything special and his toolkit not being flawless due to his size deficiency he was a guy who never seriously entered the conversation for No. 1 for me.

 

[glenwo2]

Hopefully I'm not posting too much here, but thought the end of the article would be interesting to those that are not subscribers:

That is quite the shade being thrown at Cooley there.

 

[Hisch13r]

Hopefully I'm not posting too much here, but thought the end of the article would be interesting to those that are not subscribers:

Cooley is the guy he rated as having the best tools in the ranking he just put out a couple weeks ago. mUh SiZe wins out I guess

 

[bossram]

Passing remark from Pronman about Cooley's production. I had mentioned it earlier in one of the main board threads that I thought Cooley's production was a bit worrying actually. If some draft pundits do believe him to be perhaps the most talented (or have the most potential) in the draft, you'd expect USNTDP production more in line with a 1st overall selection like Jack Hughes. Cooley is sitting more in the Keller/Turcotte/Zegras/Wahlstrom range - none of whom were ever in consideration for the pinnacle of their draft classes.

 

[Hisch13r]

Passing remark from Pronman about Cooley's production. I had mentioned it earlier in one of the main board threads that I thought Cooley's production was a bit worrying actually. If some draft pundits do believe him to be perhaps the most talented (or have the most potential) in the draft, you'd expect USNTDP production more in line with a 1st overall selection like Jack Hughes. Cooley is sitting more in the Keller/Turcotte/Zegras/Wahlstrom range - none of whom were ever in consideration for the pinnacle of their draft classes.

I think this speaks more to the quality of the draft itself than it does to say Cooley doesn’t belong high. All 3 of the top forwards don’t have stellar production. Cooley is in line with those guys. Wright is in line with Nico. Slaf is the lowest of all Liiga draft eligibles (besides Lambert). It’s why I’d just play it safe and go Wright if given the opportunity. I think it’s a reasonably safe bet you get a high end 2C/low end 1C and he could be better given the prior track record

 

[bossram]

I think this speaks more to the quality of the draft itself than it does to say Cooley doesn’t belong high. All 3 of the top forwards don’t have stellar production. Cooley is in line with those guys. Wright is in line with Nico. Slaf is the lowest of all Liiga draft eligibles (besides Lambert). It’s why I’d just play it safe and go Wright if given the opportunity. I think it’s a reasonably safe bet you get a high end 2C/low end 1C and he could be better given the prior track record

I absolutely would rank Wright 1st as well. I think his combo of ceiling + safety is the best bet.

I'm just saying that I think the production concerns of Slafkovsky should equally apply to Cooley. I don't see him as a true 1st overall calibre prospect either. I think it would be pretty reasonable to rate Nemec in the same tier, or perhaps even higher than both of them.