Win Probability Added (WPA) - playoff point scoring

[Bear of Bad News]

To the extent that this analysis suffers, it's because it ascribes all changes in win probability to scoring. Which is true (and probably biases towards eras where top-line players score more), but it's a broader impact that's being addressed above.

 

[overpass]

To the extent that this analysis suffers, it's because it ascribes all changes in win probability to scoring. Which is true (and probably biases towards eras where top-line players score more), but it's a broader impact that's being addressed above.

WPA (points) is subject to all the limitations of the points scored metric. And I agree it's more favourable towards eras where top-line players score more.

But so is every metric based on points or adjusted points. Raw point totals, scoring-level adjusted points, and ratio of points to league leaders all favour players with more ice time, players with more power play ice time, players who play on a stacked line with the best offensive talent rather than a more balanced line setup, players on teams with one scoring line rather than two or three, players on teams that rarely play their fourth line, and so on.

I don't know if there's a statistical way to adjust for the above factors that gets us to one number. But it's certainly important to consider these factors in any player evaluation.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Agreed 100% - and I think you've been very transparent about that in the thread. It's a limitation of the data available, not necessarily of the approach.

The fact that each goal changes win probabilities more in low-scoring environments is not a limitation of the approach.

When the 1985 Oilers score eight goals in a game, they still only get one win as a result.

 

[overpass]

If I understand this analysis correctly (I might not), I think the reason 3rd-stage Gretzky looks more clutch is simply because scoring got lower and Gretzky's teams were less dominant.

Yeah that's most of it. Maybe all of it, although Gretzky did score a lot of clutch points in the 90s and I'm not sure if it was just because he was in a lot of close games.

The benefit of this framework is that it does account for the fact that goals in low scoring eras are worth less than goals in high scoring eras.

It may indeed underrate players on dominant teams that had more talent than they needed to win. Gretzky can't score as many go-ahead goals when Messier and Anderson are scoring them at a high rate.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

The benefit of this framework is that it does account for the fact that goals in low scoring eras are worth less than goals in high scoring eras.

Flip this one, though.

 

[overpass]

Flip this one, though.

D'oh! I'll just point to your post next time, lol.

 

[overpass]

Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid had all-time great 2025 playoffs, especially from a WPA point scoring perspective. One or both of them had a point on 12 goals that had a WPA of 0.3 to 0.5. All goals that tied the game or gave the Oilers the lead. Draisaitl had 9 such points, and McDavid had 8.

Here's the updated list of top 10 WPA playoff scoring seasons.

1. Evgeni Malkin 2009 - 7.88 WPA
2. Leon Draisaitl 2025 - 7.69 WPA
3. Joe Sakic 1996 - 7.08 WPA
4. Connor McDavid 2025 - 7.07 WPA
5. Doug Gilmour 1993 - 6.77 WPA
6. Nikita Kucherov 2020 - 6.53 WPA
7. Brayden Point 2020 - 6.39 WPA
8. Connor McDavid 2024 - 6.38 WPA
9. Mario Lemieux 1991 - 6.38 WPA
10. Mark Recchi 1991 - 6.27 WPA

The updated top 10 WPA/game playoff scoring seasons.

Here are the top WPA per game playoff seasons since 1980 (minimum 15 GP)
1. Leon Draisaitl 2022 - 0.372 WPA/GP
2. Connor McDavid 2022 - 0.354 WPA/GP
3. Leon Draisaitl 2025 - 0.350 WPA/GP
4. Mario Lemieux 1992 - 0.342 WPA/GP
5. Wayne Gretzky 1988 - 0.333 WPA/GP
6. Evgeni Malkin 2009 - 0.328 WPA/GP
7. Doug Gilmour 1993 - 0.323 WPA/GP
8. Joe Sakic 1996 - 0.322 WPA/GP
9. Connor McDavid 2025 - 0.321 WPA/GP
10. Wayne Gretzky 1985 - 0.312 WPA/GP

And the updated best stretches of 60-80 playoff games, including 2022-2025 McDavid and Draisaitl.

1. Connor McDavid, 2022-2025 - 0.295
2. Leon Draisaitl, 2022-2025 - 0.288
3. Wayne Gretzky, 1981-1985 - 0.283
4. Mario Lemieux, 1989-1993 - 0.276
5. Jaromir Jagr, 1995-2000 - 0.275
6. Wayne Gretzky, 1986-1990 - 0.263
7. Peter Forsberg, 1999-2002 - 0.257
8. Wayne Gretzky, 1991-1997 - 0.257
9. Joe Sakic, 1996-1999 - 0.249
10. Sidney Crosby, 2008-2012 - 0.248

We may have been watching the two most impactful playoff scorers of all time.

 

[overpass]

And from a career playoff WPA perspective, McDavid and Draisaitl are in the range of some big names.

Career playoff scoring WPA
Leon Draisaitl - 26.1
Gordie Howe - 25.9
Mario Lemieux - 25.8
Connor McDavid - 25.6

Active players in career playoff scoring WPA
Sidney Crosby - 36.3
Evgeni Malkin - 31.6
Alex Ovechkin - 30.9
Brad Marchand - 29.9
Nikita Kucherov - 29.1
Patrick Kane - 28.7
Leon Draisaitl - 26.1
Connor McDavid - 25.6

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Thanks for putting this together so quickly. There should be little doubt that McDavid and Draisaitl are all-time great playoff performers (Cup or not).

That being said, is it possible that their results are inflated because the Oilers play run-and-gun hockey (so there are lots of lead changes)? As I mentioned earlier in the thread, it seems likely that players from that type of team will have more opportunities to generate lots of WPA. (On the other hand, I'm not sure if this should be held against them. If Skinner keeps allowing bad goals, they should get credit for going out there to restore the lead again).

 

[Hockey Outsider]

And here are the top WPA per point playoff seasons since 1980 of the seasons I've calculated (which is far from all of them).
This shows whose points were the most valuable, on average. It favours players in lower scoring eras, as well as players who frequently scored key points and rarely scored meaningless points.

1. Joe Nieuwendyk 1999, 0.258 WPA/P
2. Jarome Iginla 2004, 0.252 WPA/P
3. Matthew Tkachuk 2023, 0.248 WPA/P
4. Patrick Kane 2013, 0.231 WPA/P
5. Peter Forsberg 2002, 0.231 WPA/P
6. Evgeni Malkin 2009, 0.219 WPA/P
7. Joe Sakic 1996, 0.208 WPA/P
8. Daniel Briere 2010, 0.206 WPA/P
9. David Krejci 2013, 0.206 WPA/P
10. Sidney Crosby 2008, 0.203 WPA/P

Out of curiosity, how far back was Mike Modano in 1999? I thought he was more deserving of the Conn Smythe (similar offensive production and a much better two-way player). But, although the GWG stat can be dubious, there's no doubt that Nieuwendyk scored some big goals that spring.

(And for a somewhat similar situation - how do Williams and Kopitar rank for the 2014 Kings?)

 

[overpass]

Thanks for putting this together so quickly. There should be little doubt that McDavid and Draisaitl are all-time great playoff performers (Cup or not).

That being said, is it possible that their results are inflated because the Oilers play run-and-gun hockey (so there are lots of lead changes)? As I mentioned earlier in the thread, it seems likely that players from that type of team will have more opportunities to generate lots of WPA. (On the other hand, I'm not sure if this should be held against them. If Skinner keeps allowing bad goals, they should get credit for going out there to restore the lead again).

Yes, absolutely.

If WPA had a defensive component, they would have more minuses than other players. The Oilers have been pretty porous defensively with the lead while McDavid and/or Draisaitl has been on the ice.

In the playoffs, from 2020-2025, here's how the Oilers performed at 5-on-5 with a lead.

With 97 and/or 29 on the ice:
30.8 SF/60, 3.78 GF/60, 12.3 SH%, 28.5 SA/60, 3.57 GA/60, 0.875 SV%

No 97 or 29 on the ice:
24.7 SF/60, 2.11 GF/60, 8.5 SH%, 30.0 SA/60, 2.19 GA/60, 0.927 SV%

With the lead, their goals against and save percentage have been fine with their depth forwards on the ice. It's been with their star forwards that they've struggled to hold leads. I won't say that Skinner played well, but his forwards could have done more to help him out.

 

[overpass]

Out of curiosity, how far back was Mike Modano in 1999? I thought he was more deserving of the Conn Smythe (similar offensive production and a much better two-way player). But, although the GWG stat can be dubious, there's no doubt that Nieuwendyk scored some big goals that spring.

(And for a somewhat similar situation - how do Williams and Kopitar rank for the 2014 Kings?)

On a points basis, Modano and Kopitar actually edged Nieuwendyk and Williams in WPA.

1999 Modano playoffs: 5.53
1999 Nieuwendyk playoffs: 5.41

2014 Kopitar playoffs: 5.07
2014 Williams playoffs: 4.92

The difference was in goals scored, not in points. Nieuwendyk and Williams scored more goals and they scored bigger ones.

1999 Modano PO: 5 goals, 1.09 WPA (0.22 per goal)
1999 Nieuwendyk PO: 11 goals, 3.40 WPA (0.31 per goal)

10 of Nieuwendyk's 11 goals were game-tying or go-ahead. All of them were in periods 2, 3 or OT.

2014 Kopitar PO: 5 goals, 0.62 WPA (0.12 per goal)
2014 Williams PO: 9 goals, 2.26 WPA (0.25 per goal)

7 of Williams' 9 goals were go-ahead goals, scored with the game tied. 1 was a game-tying goal.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Yes, absolutely.

If WPA had a defensive component, they would have more minuses than other players. The Oilers have been pretty porous defensively with the lead while McDavid and/or Draisaitl has been on the ice.

In the playoffs, from 2020-2025, here's how the Oilers performed at 5-on-5 with a lead.

With 97 and/or 29 on the ice:
30.8 SF/60, 3.78 GF/60, 12.3 SH%, 28.5 SA/60, 3.57 GA/60, 0.875 SV%

No 97 or 29 on the ice:
24.7 SF/60, 2.11 GF/60, 8.5 SH%, 30.0 SA/60, 2.19 GA/60, 0.927 SV%

With the lead, their goals against and save percentage have been fine with their depth forwards on the ice. It's been with their star forwards that they've struggled to hold leads. I won't say that Skinner played well, but his forwards could have done more to help him out.

That's a pretty stunning difference, and over 83 games. Good find.