OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Part IV

[The Crypto Guy]

These low hospitalization and mortality rates are encouraging. What do think these numbers should mean in terms of policy moving forward?

Nothing yet. Keep up what hopefully is working.

 

[Machinehead]

These low hospitalization and mortality rates are encouraging. What do think these numbers should mean in terms of policy moving forward?

I don't know, really (none of us do) but I hope these rates mean that what we're doing in New York is slowly working.

As I alluded to yesterday, I think the grim projections are rooted in the fact that parts of the country aren't doing enough.

Cuomo mentioned today that NYS currently accounts for 1 in 2 deaths nationwide, but he projects 1 in 6 in the coming weeks.

Didn't Florida just issue orders today?? WAY too late.

 

[eco's bones]

Oh, in no way do I believe that it will be all in one shot. It will be gradual. So start with some thing on May 1 (like letting people come back to offices, maybe in a certain number), then gradually allow the gyms, delis, etc. to begin to reopen.

Depending on how things go in April pretty much.

 

[Machinehead]

Things appear to be slowing down in Italy.

Still not good numbers, but slowing down.

 

[Don Chytil]

Oh, in no way do I believe that it will be all in one shot. It will be gradual. So start with some thing on May 1 (like letting people come back to offices, maybe in a certain number), then gradually allow the gyms, delis, etc. to begin to reopen.

May 1 is incredibly optimistic. Most experts expect this to peak in late April to early May. Maybe in New York we're closer to late April than other places, but there's no way that I would feel comfortable being asked to go back into the office on May 1. Optimism is great and all, but there's a certain point where it becomes dangerous. Japan just tried to let people go back to work only to tell them that they lifted restrictions too soon, and everyone needs to go back home and stay there.

 

[Machinehead]

May 1 is incredibly optimistic. Most experts expect this to peak in late April to early May. Maybe in New York we're closer to late April than other places, but there's no way that I would feel comfortable being asked to go back into the office on May 1. Optimism is great and all, but there's a certain point where it becomes dangerous. Japan just tried to let people go back to work only to tell them that they lifted restrictions too soon, and everyone needs to go back home and stay there.

Said it when this started and I still think it's true: I'd be very, very happy if some of the summer is normal.

 

[Don Chytil]

Said it when this started and I still think it's true: I'd be very, very happy if some of the summer is normal.

Yep, if I'm on a beach (keeping my distance, but still on a beach) by Labor Day, I'll take that as a W. Might be a temporary W if it turns out this thing is seasonal, but it's something.

 

[will1066]

And enforcement needs to be ramped up. Those who defy orders in their jurisdictions need to be punished financially or by some other means.

 

[Rangerfan4life90]

May 1 is incredibly optimistic. Most experts expect this to peak in late April to early May. Maybe in New York we're closer to late April than other places, but there's no way that I would feel comfortable being asked to go back into the office on May 1. Optimism is great and all, but there's a certain point where it becomes dangerous. Japan just tried to let people go back to work only to tell them that they lifted restrictions too soon, and everyone needs to go back home and stay there.

I think by May/June, things will start to loosen up slowly. You can't keep everyone cooped in forever. At some point, you're gonna have to bite the bullet.

It's why April will be an important month, imo. I still think we'll get a lot of the summer in.

 

[Rangerfan4life90]

Oh, in no way do I believe that it will be all in one shot. It will be gradual. So start with something on May 1 (like letting people come back to offices, maybe in a certain number), then gradually allow the gyms, delis, etc. to begin to reopen.

Agreed. It's gonna be gradually rolled out like that most likely, with maybe a certain capacity limit of people.

 

[Leonardo87]

 

[Machinehead]

And enforcement needs to be ramped up. Those who defy orders in their jurisdictions need to be punished financially or by some other means.

They should be forced to watch clips of me complaining from 15-16 when the Rangers and Liverpool were both terrible.

That'll deter anything.

 

[Barnaby]

And enforcement needs to be ramped up. Those who defy orders in their jurisdictions need to be punished financially or by some other means.

Not enough manpower and it’s dwindling by the day as guys get the disease

 

[Ola]

Said it when this started and I still think it's true: I'd be very, very happy if some of the summer is normal.

Yeah, I’ve been the opposite, it’s a month. It’s maybe two months. Now, if if it’s less than 6 months it would be fantastic.

 

[Ola]

Maybe.

Maybe I am just being naive because if we have 250,000 deaths, it will mean that anywhere from 10 - 30 million people would have contracted COVID-19, creating catastrophic levels of damage to this country and when all said and done globally. You're talking about a widespread impact on the availability of medicine, food, clean water, etc. You're going to see an increased mortality rate of almost every disease out there due to a completely overwhelmed healthcare system. You're going to see economic damage far beyond what we ever could have expected.

Maybe it is just the optimist in me that is hoping that it doesn't happen.

By my math a million Americans had Covid-19 not today but 2-3 weeks ago.

I am not speculating on potential death tolls that high, but for most it takes 2-3 weeks to get really ill and pass away.

5k dead now, if 0.5% dies (of real cases, not just confirmed) that means that a million had it 2-3 weeks ago.

If a million had it 2-3 weeks ago — how many have it now? It’s up there, 5-10 million at least already.

Extremely scary.

 

[Ola]

This is why one of the many reasons when I say that while Trump is not stating it properly, he is not wrong when he says that the cure can be worse off than the disease. And why I believe, and some will be kicking and screaming about this statement and am sure that papers like the NY Times and Washington Post will rail the loudest, you are going to see some things begin to open re-open up by beginning of May.

Let's put aside the economics of it for a minute (though we'll get back to it in a minute). The effects on people due to long course isolation are extremely harmful. You are talking about spikes in obessity, divorce rates, domestic violence, depression and an increase in general poor health overall. Then you factor in the catastrophic effects of a prolonged shut down and you no longer facing another great recession. You are now facing a full on depression, the likes of which has never been seen. Bread lines will be the least of anyone's concerns. Let's just take one industry. Say it's accounting. A big 4 firm cannot continue if their clients are wiped out. And while their clients are big, inevitably they will get wiped out. So them the big bad Big 4 firm will close. Then go to the smaller firms. Once all of the small businesses get wiped out, the smaller firms get wiped out. Then go to the sole practitioners. Once their individual clients stop working, then they get wiped out.

The chain reaction is awful. And why I believe that by beginning of May and continuing through June, you will see things gradually reopen.

Yeah, and it’s all a matter of time. Shut down completely for 1-2 months? It would create the biggest damage 2 to none that we ever have seen, but is it worth it to save lives? Of course.

But what if you have to shut down for 6 months? To some extent it’s a figure problem, the state can just “print” money (printing money is the same as loaning it), and if everyone does it, you could have a corona write off that the world probably would buy. They are scared to death of just taking a zero from all countries debts, because they fear people would loose respect for the fiscal system and start spending too much thinking that there always is a bailout around the corner. But this is a one time thing.

But besides what really is a numbers game (funding the economy of all economies, which can be done by just printing money and then reducing debt so that we don’t pass it on to the next generation) — 6 months would start to produce some really really ugly shortages and similar effects. It’s also practically impossible to just sponsor the business that needs it and not end up with significant sums going into the pocket of people that don’t need it. Like let’s say that the state picks up the bill — how? How do you accomplish that? Would 500k people be enough to fill out forms, review them and make the payments?

And things are shutting down. Metals, food, chemicals, personnel, education, it’s just an extremely impactful situation that — nobody — even remotely has a clue how it should be handled, what can happen and so forth,

Like history shows us with outmost clarity that humans can go wrong and bad things can happen. You don’t want to venture into completely unknown territory with a world in chaos, unless ... what exactly? A lot of things to think about...

 

[Barnaby]

And enforcement needs to be ramped up. Those who defy orders in their jurisdictions need to be punished financially or by some other means.

Deblasio will have you stopped then immediately issue you free Met tickets and a free cellular phone.

 

[will1066]

Deblasio will have you stopped then immediately issue you free Met tickets and a free cellular phone.

The tickets must be Cespedes' comeback game and the phone must be on the new Sprint-T-Mobile network. Or no deal.

 

[NYSPORTS]

Here is a tracker from Johns Hopkins.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

hmm, at the hour they removed the US Stats.

edit - US Stats back up

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

And enforcement needs to be ramped up. Those who defy orders in their jurisdictions need to be punished financially or by some other means.

Here in Austria, defying the orders leads to a €3400 fine ($3722)

 

[will1066]

Here in Austria, defying the orders leads to a €3400 fine ($3722)

You guys don't mess around

 

[Machinehead]

We might as well just gradually open things up at some point.

The way this is trending, and the way the US is managing this, we're not flattening the curve anyway.

 

[NYSPORTS]

The way this is trending, and the way the US is managing this, we're not flattening the curve anyway.

How should we manage this? IMO, many people are doing the right thing yet a small percentage, which is a lot of people, are not taking full responsibility. They are playing roulette and socializing which puts us all at risk.

 

[Machinehead]

How should we manage this? IMO, many people are doing the right thing yet a small percentage, which is a lot of people, are not taking full responsibility. They are playing roulette and socializing which puts us all at risk.

f***ing enforce it. f*** your "freedom." You're not free to get other people sick.

 

[eco's bones]

May 1 is incredibly optimistic. Most experts expect this to peak in late April to early May. Maybe in New York we're closer to late April than other places, but there's no way that I would feel comfortable being asked to go back into the office on May 1. Optimism is great and all, but there's a certain point where it becomes dangerous. Japan just tried to let people go back to work only to tell them that they lifted restrictions too soon, and everyone needs to go back home and stay there.

I kind of look at May 1 as maybe a target to hope for but maybe also not that realistic. It's like almost everything would have to go right between now and then. I get that some people are really chomping at the bit but IMO a job is not worth losing your life over or even potentially putting family, friends, co-workers or even strangers in danger if you happen to for instance to be one of the untested asymptomatic ones or if you actually do get really sick.

Just a couple thoughts. Personally I'm a retired postal worker and I don't miss my job. I know a lot of people can't separate their occupation from who they are and there's also the worries over the rent---ability to pay for this or that. This sucks all the way around but it's also an experiment in living--a way maybe of testing our own resilience as a people or a society and learning to trust each other more might be a benefit that comes out of it.