OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Part IV

[Gardner McKay]

I definitely don't think its out of the question. Look at Italy, current tally is 13,155 deaths. They have been in lockdown for quite some time and they still have reported 4782 new cases today according to Coronavirus Update (Live): 903,772 Cases and 45,334 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer. 4000 currently in serious/critical condition. And while it looks like they might have finally started slowing down, they will still be having cases (like every country) for quite some time. We have over 5 times the population they do and while we had a head start we did nothing with it. Really looks to me like 100k deaths from this in the US is the current best case scenario.

Maybe.

Maybe I am just being naive because if we have 250,000 deaths, it will mean that anywhere from 10 - 30 million people would have contracted COVID-19, creating catastrophic levels of damage to this country and when all said and done globally. You're talking about a widespread impact on the availability of medicine, food, clean water, etc. You're going to see an increased mortality rate of almost every disease out there due to a completely overwhelmed healthcare system. You're going to see economic damage far beyond what we ever could have expected.

Maybe it is just the optimist in me that is hoping that it doesn't happen.

 

[True Blue]

The Fortune 500 company I work for just announced company wide furlough's starting next week. Mandatory 2 weeks unpaid out of the next 5. It's a far cry from what some are experiencing so I am not complaining, just informing so others who may be in a similar position don't feel alone.

This is why one of the many reasons when I say that while Trump is not stating it properly, he is not wrong when he says that the cure can be worse off than the disease. And why I believe, and some will be kicking and screaming about this statement and am sure that papers like the NY Times and Washington Post will rail the loudest, you are going to see some things begin to open re-open up by beginning of May.

Let's put aside the economics of it for a minute (though we'll get back to it in a minute). The effects on people due to long course isolation are extremely harmful. You are talking about spikes in obessity, divorce rates, domestic violence, depression and an increase in general poor health overall. Then you factor in the catastrophic effects of a prolonged shut down and you no longer facing another great recession. You are now facing a full on depression, the likes of which has never been seen. Bread lines will be the least of anyone's concerns. Let's just take one industry. Say it's accounting. A big 4 firm cannot continue if their clients are wiped out. And while their clients are big, inevitably they will get wiped out. So them the big bad Big 4 firm will close. Then go to the smaller firms. Once all of the small businesses get wiped out, the smaller firms get wiped out. Then go to the sole practitioners. Once their individual clients stop working, then they get wiped out.

The chain reaction is awful. And why I believe that by beginning of May and continuing through June, you will see things gradually reopen.

 

[Crease]

So I just went out to the store briefly for the first time in 2 weeks. I got two questions

1) Where can I find some of these masks where I'm not getting completely raked over the coals on the price ?
2) Do they have to be a special kind of mask or does literally anything covering your face help?

I'll hang up and listen

According to some experts, any mask is sufficient--not because it blocks the disease but--because it trains you not to touch your face. The vast majority of case are through touching a contaminated surface and then your face.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

 

[eco's bones]

New York was up to 1,941 deaths as of Cuomo's press conference today which means from yesterday to today 391 died which is the biggest number yet. Cuomo cited several studies and their projections---the Gates foundation came to overall US deaths of 93,000 of which 16,000 would be New Yorkers. McKinsey had different scenarios dependent on how well people in general followed the guidelines of protecting themselves--they seem to think that whatever the case the apex will happen at the end of April. Cuomo also mentioned a study that had this ongoing in NYS well into July. Once the apex is hit--then you start coming down--how long before you get all the way down is also a question----but really nobody knows---these are projections. I had someone send me a chart last week suggesting NYS was almost at its apex then---apparently not because it's climbed quite a bit higher since.

Cuomo lamented the fact that almost all the material and supplies and equipment that's needed is produced in China. That we need to think about making these things here. He also remarked about streamlining how our hospital system works--he didn't go all the way there but here we start getting into the framework of where you go with an M4A system. Not really the usual territory for a centrist democrat with neo-liberal leanings but maybe it takes a catastrophe like the present one to make one rethink policy from a more pro-society economic viewpoint. Don't mean to overly critique Andrew Cuomo here because I think he's doing a good job and taking the life and death of this with the gravity he should. Still where we go from here when this is all over is something he himself brought up today so it's an opportunity for us all to extend that conversation.

 

[GordonGecko]

New York was up to 1,941 deaths as of Cuomo's press conference today which means from yesterday to today 391 died which is the biggest number yet. Cuomo cited several studies and their projections---the Gates foundation came to overall US deaths of 93,000 of which 16,000 would be New Yorkers. McKinsey had different scenarios dependent on how well people in general followed the guidelines of protecting themselves--they seem to think that whatever the case the apex will happen at the end of April. Cuomo also mentioned a study that had this ongoing in NYS well into July. Once the apex is hit--then you start coming down--how long before you get all the way down is also a question----but really nobody knows---these are projections. I had someone send me a chart last week suggesting NYS was almost at its apex then---apparently not because it's climbed quite a bit higher since.

Cuomo lamented the fact that almost all the material and supplies and equipment that's needed is produced in China. That we need to think about making these things here. He also remarked about streamlining how our hospital system works--he didn't go all the way there but here we start getting into the framework of where you go with an M4A system. Not really the usual territory for a centrist democrat with neo-liberal leanings but maybe it takes a catastrophe like the present one to make one rethink policy from a more pro-society economic viewpoint. Don't mean to overly critique Andrew Cuomo here because I think he's doing a good job and taking the life and death of this with the gravity he should. Still where we go from here when this is all over is something he himself brought up today so it's an opportunity for us all to extend that conversation.

He also said only 20% people that go on ventilators ultimately walk away

So yeah, ventilators are important but they're basically the sign of a death sentence

 

[True Blue]

Still where we go from here when this is all over is something he himself brought up today so it's an opportunity for us all to extend that conversation.

I do believe that we are in the belly of the curve and that will continue this week and next. That I believe is the peak. Just my view. And then, as I outlined above, I think that will things will begin to slowly open up again starting in May.

 

[frozenrubber]

Maybe.

Maybe I am just being naive because if we have 250,000 deaths, it will mean that anywhere from 10 - 30 million people would have contracted COVID-19, creating catastrophic levels of damage to this country and when all said and done globally. You're talking about a widespread impact on the availability of medicine, food, clean water, etc. You're going to see an increased mortality rate of almost every disease out there due to a completely overwhelmed healthcare system. You're going to see economic damage far beyond what we ever could have expected.

Maybe it is just the optimist in me that is hoping that it doesn't happen.

I'm not a pessimist, but as a reference point, from Apr 2009 - Apr 2010, there were 60.8M cases of H1N1 in the United States. There are signifiant issues in comparing it directly, but a scale of mass infection within the US is not without precedent.

H1N1's infection rate was potentially lower as a result of:
- approx. 1/3 of the population over 60 had existing antibodies; most likely from exposure from a similar variant decades earlier
- Vaccine availability came into use during the 2nd wave in fall of 2009
- Seasonality of flu viruses
- R-nought value of H1N1 was believed to be 1.46

Conversely, our data on asymptotic carriers of SARS-CoV-2 is incomplete, but early calculations put the R0 rate at 2-2.50. We very much hope that seasonality in addition with the SIGNIFICANT action of restriction of movement will keep the overall infection rate lower than that of H1N1 as you can clearly see the math that leads to the mortality figures outlined in some dire projections.

 

[Gardner McKay]

I'm not a pessimist, but as a reference point, from Apr 2009 - Apr 2010, there were 60.8M cases of H1N1 in the United States. There are signifiant issues in comparing it directly, but a scale of mass infection within the US is not without precedent.

H1N1's infection rate was potentially lower as a result of:
- approx. 1/3 of the population over 60 had existing antibodies; most likely from exposure from a similar variant decades earlier
- Vaccine availability came into use during the 2nd wave in fall of 2009
- Seasonality of flu viruses
- R-nought value of H1N1 was believed to be 1.46

Conversely, our data on asymptotic carriers of SARS-CoV-2 is incomplete, but early calculations put the R0 rate at 2-2.50. We very much hope that seasonality in addition with the SIGNIFICANT action of restriction of movement will keep the overall infection rate lower than that of H1N1 as you can clearly see the math that leads to the mortality figures outlined in some dire projections.

Respectfully I disagree. This is not H1N1. We didn't shut down the country for H1N1. People were not dying from H1N1 at the rate we are seeing of COVID-19. Our healthcare systems were not overwhelmed the way they are currently being overwhelmed.

 

[PuckLuck3043]

LOL. People are just stupid. Those gloves aren't doing much good after touching everything and then eating with them. Dumbass.

 

[GordonGecko]

LOL. People are just stupid. Those gloves aren't doing much good after touching everything and then eating with them. Dumbass.

correct, gloves are a removable proxy. Like at a restaurant if someone has gloves and they are touching the pizza and the cash, it's the same as having no gloves at all

 

[Leonardo87]

 

[Gardner McKay]

I'm not a pessimist, but as a reference point, from Apr 2009 - Apr 2010, there were 60.8M cases of H1N1 in the United States. There are signifiant issues in comparing it directly, but a scale of mass infection within the US is not without precedent.

H1N1's infection rate was potentially lower as a result of:
- approx. 1/3 of the population over 60 had existing antibodies; most likely from exposure from a similar variant decades earlier
- Vaccine availability came into use during the 2nd wave in fall of 2009
- Seasonality of flu viruses
- R-nought value of H1N1 was believed to be 1.46

Conversely, our data on asymptotic carriers of SARS-CoV-2 is incomplete, but early calculations put the R0 rate at 2-2.50. We very much hope that seasonality in addition with the SIGNIFICANT action of restriction of movement will keep the overall infection rate lower than that of H1N1 as you can clearly see the math that leads to the mortality figures outlined in some dire projections.

Respectfully I disagree. This is not H1N1. We didn't shut down the country for H1N1. People were not dying from H1N1 at the rate we are seeing of COVID-19. Our healthcare systems were not overwhelmed the way they are currently being overwhelmed.

 

[eco's bones]

I do believe that we are in the belly of the curve and that will continue this week and next. That I believe is the peak. Just my view. And then, as I outlined above, I think that will things will begin to slowly open up again starting in May.

Cuomo mentioned there are a number of studies---at least one of which has the apex coming in 7 days---the later ones have us to the end of April and as I mentioned there's a period after the apex battle--the cases go down but how fast they go down nobody really knows and there will probably be still a lot of people dying. It's interesting when you say 'I do believe' though---Cuomo again today 'I'm interested in people's opinions but I want to know the facts first not biased by what someone believes' or something to that effect. So you can believe one thing and I can believe another and we both could be right on some part of it or wrong on it all and the chances are our guesses won't be right on everything. Just saying. I'm not a medico---I don't think you are either---and even if you were there seems to be a wide variance of opinion among medicos too.

I would caution about jumping the gun too fast though. When a hockey player gets badly concussed--when he's starting to get back to normal--he does light workouts and feels his way---if he overdoes things he sometimes goes right back to where he doesn't want to be. I think there may be a similar kind of analogy to be made here. That said Cuomo seems encouraged that very soon testing is going to get a lot easier and faster to do and that would help a lot--for one thing you can start separating those who are fine from those who are asymptomatic and think they're fine but are contagious to others. So that may mean that May might be a realistic target for at least getting the ball rolling again---maybe not all the way but somewhat.

 

[eco's bones]

He also said only 20% people that go on ventilators ultimately walk away

So yeah, ventilators are important but they're basically the sign of a death sentence

I got that too. It's kind of a last resort. It brings back memories of my mom who died from pneumonia the day before christmas 2017--she wasn't going to make it but we had the option of prolonging her death by keeping her on a ventilator. We took her off and they sedated her until she passed.

 

[True Blue]

So that may mean that May might be a realistic target for at least getting the ball rolling again---maybe not all the way but somewhat.

Oh, in no way do I believe that it will be all in one shot. It will be gradual. So start with some thing on May 1 (like letting people come back to offices, maybe in a certain number), then gradually allow the gyms, delis, etc. to begin to reopen.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

10,683 confirmed cases in Westchester, only 226 required hospitalization. only 2%. Very low number. 0.89% have passed. Also low.

 

[will1066]

To show what a very small percentage of people are being hospitalized in Westchester? Thanks for your useful post however!

Those people can still infect the less fortunate. They're still contagious. They might not need hospitalization, but they remain nevertheless dangerous and a threat to prolong the spread.

 

[Unusual Suspect]

I guess wealth and access to the best medical personnel and facilities helps. Who'da thunk it?

 

[BigBlueAndRed]

1) Where can I find some of these masks where I'm not getting completely raked over the coals on the price ?
2) Do they have to be a special kind of mask or does literally anything covering your face help?

1) What you wanted were N95 masks, mainly produced by 3M. They act a a seal around around your mouth and noise and can filter out any airborne coronavirus particles. They're long gone, and any new shipments are now being held for government/healthcare.

People are importing KN95 masks from China and selling them on eBay, which are supposed to be a similar filtration standard to N95, but who knows if they're legit masks or just bootlegs. You can gamble on an auction like this.

I ordered a couple masks from this firm that will ship in June, they're rated N99 and will last up to 3 months instead of one use.

2) Now they're recommending you find anything reasonable to cover your nose and mouth, though it's more to prevent you from potentially spreading the virus then to protect you from getting it: Should I Make My Own Mask?

 

[GordonGecko]

1) What you wanted were N95 masks, mainly produced by 3M. They act a a seal around around your mouth and noise and can filter out any airborne coronavirus particles.

That's not completely accurate, they can't filter out all coronavirus particles. As you know the 95 stands for 95% filtered. N95's are what you can mass produce for most efficient near ideal protection. If I were working in a hospital I would not step foot inside without an N99

 

[Metranger]

I just read this online. I have no idea if it really works but I will try it.

What Kills COVID-19 Wuhan Coronavirus? - True Strange News

Activated Masks with Salt

One interesting cheap DYI idea is to use salt water to create an activated mask. You basically fill a small bowl with water and keep adding salt and stirring until no more will dissolve, then soak your mask in the salt solution for 5 minutes, then let it dry.
Before you dismiss this, see the article in Nature for why this may work.
Universal and reusable virus deactivation system for respiratory protection
While there are already some electrostatic on the fibers of the masks, the forces exerted by the dried salt appear to increase damage to the virus, breaking it up and deactivating it at a molecular level.

 

[Barnaby]

My boss tested positive. Took 7 days to get her results. Ridiculous. She's deemed an essential worker too. She did self isolate after feeling shitty though. I've found state and local government/police jobs response to this to be utterly ridiculous. I know the nypd wasnt quarantining cops even if they have a direct contact with someone displaying symptoms until they personally displayed symptoms. Symptoms could take up to 2 weeks to show even if you have the virus. Cops are probably infecting half the city without knowing.

That’s great in theory but everyone and there mother is calling 911 to go to the hospital with “symptoms.” If every cop who dealt with someone with symptoms took off the following 2 weeks then the departments would be wiped out in 3 days. Basically, cops need to be smart and wear masks/gloves and people need to drive themselves/family to the hospital.

 

[Crease]

10,683 confirmed cases in Westchester, only 226 required hospitalization. only 2%. Very low number. 0.89% have passed. Also low.

These low hospitalization and mortality rates are encouraging. What do think these numbers should mean in terms of policy moving forward?

 

[MyLoveIsBlue]