OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Part IV

[PuckLuck3043]

forget 6 feet, coronavirus can travel 27 feet:
https://nypost.com/2020/03/31/coronavirus-could-travel-27-feet-stay-in-air-for-hours-mit-researcher/

And this doctor on the front lines in NYC says if you keep your hands clean and don't touch your face you will not get the virus.

 

[Leonardo87]

Nothing like a little cheesy 80’s music to cheer you up...

 

[Doctyl]

and how are they determining undiagnosed cases? agreed 100% that its misleading to only include diagnosed cases since testing is limited to people with symptoms and rich people, so you know that there are tons of people that have it and didn't get tested. but how are they not just making up a number here to make the new % fit the narrative? there is no way to know if the undiagnosed cases is 50k or 50 mil

based on the below, I guess they’re inferring those rates from assuming that most people in a closed area like the cruise ship or a plane would be infected and then going off those confirmed positive cases calculated the death rate there and applied it across the confirmed deaths in China/the world to estimate the total infections. I admittedly don’t have a strong background in epidemiology though and am not familiar with how those models are made.

From the paper:

Using data on the prevalence of PCR-confirmed cases in international residents repatriated from China, we obtained age-stratified estimates of the infection fatality ratio.

and

Our estimate of an infection fatality ratio of 0·66% in China was informed by PCR testing of international Wuhan residents returning on repatriation flights. This value was consistent with the infection fatality ratio observed in passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise ship up to March 5, 2020, although it is slightly above the upper 95% confidence limit of the age-adjusted infection fatality ratio observed by March 25 (of 712 confirmed cases, 601 have been discharged, ten have died, and 11 remain in a critical condition). This difference might be due to repatriation flight data slightly underestimating milder infections, or due to cruise passengers having better outcomes because of a potentially higher-than-average quality of health care.

 

[Leonardo87]

 

[eco's bones]

White House projecting between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths---that's not good.

 

[Gardner McKay]

White House projecting between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths---that's not good.

That can't be right and I almost wonder if it is a damage control measure. Go beyond worst case scenario so when it inevitably doesn't happen you can turn around and say "see what a great job we did"?

Then again, considering the fact that my sister-in-law got tested 8 days ago and still hasn't received results... it is entirely possible.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

With a lot of people sitting at home, just watching Youtube/Netflix/Hulu and being bored to death, I want to share a suggestion.

In my line of work, it's important to stay up to date in terms of certification etc. I may sound like your mom or dad when I bring this up, but hear me out. With times being tough, and spending hours and hours at home, spend that time wisely and develop your overall skillset. Some may have lost their jobs, some may look for something else when all this is over. I've been self-educating a lot in the past 2 weeks through LinkedIn Learning, which has some big advantages. The certification can be automatically linked to your LinkedIn account, and a lot of major companies offer their learning material for free.

In the absense of sports, we have a lot of time to spare. Why not make use of it? I have been telling my team at work to do the same, and they have responded positively to the suggestion. Just wanted to share that

LinkedIn Learning: Online Courses for Creative, Technology, Business Skills

 

[Irishguy42]

I already spent a lot of time so far doing certs/training but my head hurts from doing it for so many days.

Gonna take a day or two to decompress.

 

[Crease]

And this doctor on the front lines in NYC says if you keep your hands clean and don't touch your face you will not get the virus.

Best video I've seen so far on covid. Worth watching the entire hour. Thanks for sharing.

 

[ecemleafs]

My boss tested positive. Took 7 days to get her results. Ridiculous. She's deemed an essential worker too. She did self isolate after feeling shitty though. I've found state and local government/police jobs response to this to be utterly ridiculous. I know the nypd wasnt quarantining cops even if they have a direct contact with someone displaying symptoms until they personally displayed symptoms. Symptoms could take up to 2 weeks to show even if you have the virus. Cops are probably infecting half the city without knowing.

 

[Leonardo87]

My business I’m running as usual but mostly from home as well as staff who are working remotely. People are home now and it’s a good opportunity to reach them and discuss their finances since things are in such disarray and they have time to talk. We are an essential business and after some phone calls I’ve gotten this week I understand why. Heck one of my peeps wrote a life policy last night.

Gotta keep active like AK says, because when this thing is over don’t want to be the one of the ones to have to play catch-up and the more we try and keep things afloat the economy will bounce back sooner rather than later.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

My business I’m running as usual but mostly from home as well as staff who are working remotely. People are home now and it’s a good opportunity to reach them and discuss their finances since things are in such disarray and they have time to talk. We are an essential business and after some phone calls I’ve gotten this week I understand why. Heck one of my peeps wrote a life policy last night.

Gotta keep active like AK says, because when this thing is over don’t want to be the one of the ones to have to play catch-up and the more we try and keep things afloat the economy will bounce back sooner rather than later.

Yeah. I wake up the same time each day. The same time I would if I was going to work. I use the "travel time" to make myself breakfast. Some orange juice, fried eggs etc.

I'm behind my laptop by 8 AM, which would be the time I enter the office. Having that habit stay the same, makes it easier to go back to work once this is over.

 

[PuckLuck3043]

Best video I've seen so far on covid. Worth watching the entire hour. Thanks for sharing.

Thank you. I thought so too and wanted to share.

 

[Machinehead]

That can't be right and I almost wonder if it is a damage control measure. Go beyond worst case scenario so when it inevitably doesn't happen you can turn around and say "see what a great job we did"?

Then again, considering the fact that my sister-in-law got tested 8 days ago and still hasn't received results... it is entirely possible.

It depends on what our fatality rate ends up being and it's hard to say because we don't know how many actually have it and fatality has wildly varied across regions.

If it's 4%, that figure would require 5 million infected. I absolutely think that's possible.

If it's 1%, that would require 20 million infected. I don't know if I see that, at least not in one wave.

It's scary to think that there's so many more out there than we know of, but at the same time, that's going to drive down fatality rate significantly, because if you're sick enough to die from it, we know you have it.

But even with a lowered fatality rate, a virus that tens of millions get will kill hundreds of thousands. We have to do as much as we can to limit the spread. This new projection leads me to believe that people are not doing enough, particularly in parts of the country where it "isn't that bad" yet.

 

[Machinehead]

And this doctor on the front lines in NYC says if you keep your hands clean and don't touch your face you will not get the virus.

I know he's a doctor, but if this was only spreading through direct, sustained contact, it wouldn't be spreading as rapidly as it is.

 

[Crease]

I know he's a doctor, but if this was only spreading through direct, sustained contact, it wouldn't be spreading as rapidly as it is.

You might be mixing a couple of his points. He said that people are almost exclusively getting the disease by touching a contaminated surface and then their face. He also said that there is a thought that the virus can also be aerosolized but in order to contract it through the air you have to be in sustained contact with a covid patient for like 15-20 minutes in a closed environment. The first point is why it's so important to wash your hands often and avoid touching your face. Any mask is good in this respect because it trains you not to touch your face. The second point is why N95 masks specifically should be allocated to doctors who undertake procedures to patients to induce breathing, spitting, coughing, etc.

 

[JCProdigy]

I know he's a doctor, but if this was only spreading through direct, sustained contact, it wouldn't be spreading as rapidly as it is.

While I appreciate the work he's doing and the tone of his video to ease peoples' worries, I think we have to be careful when listening to videos from doctors/nurses/healthcare professionals that are not specialized in the field. Dr. Price is a (I believe 2nd year) ICU doctor and while that would definitely give him more knowledge and info than the average person, it still pales in comparison to Epidemiologists/Infectious Disease experts who have specifically studied Covid-19.

He is actually very qualified to tell us about patient progression and treatment options (drugs given, O2 therapy, etc) for patients that have been admitted to the hospital with worsening symptoms. Still, like I said, I appreciate what his general message was. Just we/him have to be careful.

 

[Machinehead]

While I appreciate the work he's doing and the tone of his video to ease peoples' worries, I think you have to be careful when listening to videos from doctors/nurses/healthcare professionals that are not specialized in the field. Dr. Price is a (I believe 2nd year) ICU doctor and while that would definitely give him more knowledge and info than the average person, it still pales in comparison to Epidemiologists/Infectious Disease experts who have specifically studied Covid-19.

He is actually very qualified to tell us about patient progression and treatment options (drugs given, O2 therapy, etc) for patients that have been admitted to the hospital with worsening symptoms. Still, like I said, I appreciate what his general message was. Just we/him have to be careful.

Yeah, I get the message the way @Crease explained it.

Sure, you could walk right into a sneeze but it's unlikely. Surface infection is much more feasible.

I just think he needs to be careful with the way he explains it because a lot of people don't know how to handle this and may misconstrue his message as "just wash your hands" when there's a bit more to it than that.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

Amazon has re-stocked on masks, sanitizer, and gloves but are limiting them to only government agencies and hospitals. So if you know anyone who works in purchasing for one of those agencies, pass it on:

https://www.amazon.com/b?node=21152222011

Or maybe let those agencies ON THE FRONT LINE who are risking their lives FOR ALL OF US have them?

Just a thought.

 

[sbjnyc]

Death rate MUCH lower than initially reported now that they are are taking into accounts of cases not diagnosed. New death rate now estimated about 0.66%, not 2%-3.5%.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

The CEBM has been staying that the infection mortality rate is likely around 0.1% but the problem is when everyone gets infected. And if too many get infected at once then inadequate medical resources would lead to higher fatality rates.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

That can't be right and I almost wonder if it is a damage control measure. Go beyond worst case scenario so when it inevitably doesn't happen you can turn around and say "see what a great job we did"?

Then again, considering the fact that my sister-in-law got tested 8 days ago and still hasn't received results... it is entirely possible.

I don’t mean to scare you, but projections regarding unmitigated spread show 2MM plus. We already passed the total deaths on 9/11 today. It will be a f***ing miracle if we stay under 100K. A blessing if we stay under 200K.

Stay home, wash your hands. And for the love of God, listen to experts.

 

[aufheben]

With a lot of people sitting at home, just watching Youtube/Netflix/Hulu and being bored to death, I want to share a suggestion.

In my line of work, it's important to stay up to date in terms of certification etc. I may sound like your mom or dad when I bring this up, but hear me out. With times being tough, and spending hours and hours at home, spend that time wisely and develop your overall skillset. Some may have lost their jobs, some may look for something else when all this is over. I've been self-educating a lot in the past 2 weeks through LinkedIn Learning, which has some big advantages. The certification can be automatically linked to your LinkedIn account, and a lot of major companies offer their learning material for free.

In the absense of sports, we have a lot of time to spare. Why not make use of it? I have been telling my team at work to do the same, and they have responded positively to the suggestion. Just wanted to share that

LinkedIn Learning: Online Courses for Creative, Technology, Business Skills

I overhauled my portfolio, website, LinkedIn, resume, business cards, all that stuff. This has actually been my most productive couple of weeks in a while.

I work remotely anyway so really it's just the lack of hockey that has opened up all this time.

 

[Miamipuck]

That can't be right and I almost wonder if it is a damage control measure. Go beyond worst case scenario so when it inevitably doesn't happen you can turn around and say "see what a great job we did"?

Then again, considering the fact that my sister-in-law got tested 8 days ago and still hasn't received results... it is entirely possible.

Currently in the world out of everyone tested positive the death rate has been around 2%. That would mean 10 million Americans have to be tested positive for 200,000 Americans to die. I don't think that's supported by the numbers and it's like you said. I think the 5 million infected is far fetched but our country seems to be the gold standard of what not to do to contain the virus.

 

[egelband]

and how are they determining undiagnosed cases? agreed 100% that its misleading to only include diagnosed cases since testing is limited to people with symptoms and rich people, so you know that there are tons of people that have it and didn't get tested. but how are they not just making up a number here to make the new % fit the narrative? there is no way to know if the undiagnosed cases is 50k or 50 mil

This is key. With flu, for example, we - I assume - have data about non-symptomatic cases. Or at least, good estimates. With Covid the data just isn’t there yet. Hopefully, once the data catches up, it won’t be so scary.

 

[Ola]

It depends on what our fatality rate ends up being and it's hard to say because we don't know how many actually have it and fatality has wildly varied across regions.

If it's 4%, that figure would require 5 million infected. I absolutely think that's possible.

If it's 1%, that would require 20 million infected. I don't know if I see that, at least not in one wave.

It's scary to think that there's so many more out there than we know of, but at the same time, that's going to drive down fatality rate significantly, because if you're sick enough to die from it, we know you have it.

But even with a lowered fatality rate, a virus that tens of millions get will kill hundreds of thousands. We have to do as much as we can to limit the spread. This new projection leads me to believe that people are not doing enough, particularly in parts of the country where it "isn't that bad" yet.

And as I understand it, just counting fatalities is in its own very hard. NYT had a great article about Bergamo. They had a boat load of fatalities and I don’t think anyone believes they padded their numbers to keep deaths down. But the No of fatalities of Covid in Bergamo didn’t at all account for the increase in deaths in Bergamo from February 2019 to February 2020. If the increase was 300 per month, like only 180 of them was chalked up as Covid deaths.

So I think this is a grey area too.

I know that at least all testing in Sweden in a couple of weeks also will track antidotes, recon that will be the only safe way to predict how many had it. Counting backwards from deaths, IVA patience etc gives a broad picture — but nothing seem to be precise these days.