OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Part IV

[egelband]

Btw. Not for nothing, but the more I learn about the flu, the more amazed I am we don’t get more worried about it every year. I had no idea, before all this, that so many people were lost yearly to the flu.

 

[Ola]

Btw. Not for nothing, but the more I learn about the flu, the more amazed I am we don’t get more worried about it every year. I had no idea, before all this, that so many people were lost yearly to the flu.

Yeah, when I did the military service I had a friend in my plutoon that went home over a 4 day weekend, and just died in the effin flu. He was 18 and we were selected for Artic Ranger training which is one of the toughest military regiments in Sweden after very extensive testing and was of course super fit. No underlying condition. He was a bit sick, then all of a sudden his fever went up to 41´ c on Friday afternoon and they rushed him to the hospital, and a few hour later he was dead.

But I am feeling more and more that the season flu really takes a toll on me the last years. The period I am "sick" isn't that bad, but the following week I am just completely worn out as the body recovers.

 

[Ola]

Currently in the world out of everyone tested positive the death rate has been around 2%. That would mean 10 million Americans have to be tested positive for 200,000 Americans to die. I don't think that's supported by the numbers and it's like you said. I think the 5 million infected is far fetched but our country seems to be the gold standard of what not to do to contain the virus.

I saw an estimate that 2.5-5% of the Swedes has Corona right now by an internationally renowned professor. He literary said that his best guess is 5-10%, but he wouldn't bet the house on it, but that he certainly would do it on the real rate being at least in the span 2.5-5%.

Its starting to feel like its safe to assume that the death rate is much lower than what the numbers indicate (probably below 0.5%), but that a lot more have it. As I understand it, most die three weeks after getting it. The coming month will be really tough...

 

[eco's bones]

It depends on what our fatality rate ends up being and it's hard to say because we don't know how many actually have it and fatality has wildly varied across regions.

If it's 4%, that figure would require 5 million infected. I absolutely think that's possible.

If it's 1%, that would require 20 million infected. I don't know if I see that, at least not in one wave.

It's scary to think that there's so many more out there than we know of, but at the same time, that's going to drive down fatality rate significantly, because if you're sick enough to die from it, we know you have it.

But even with a lowered fatality rate, a virus that tens of millions get will kill hundreds of thousands. We have to do as much as we can to limit the spread. This new projection leads me to believe that people are not doing enough, particularly in parts of the country where it "isn't that bad" yet.

I think a lot of people look at this virus as a NYC problem when it's a problem that hasn't quite got to them yet. Some states still downplay it or are reluctant to take measures because of their bottom line as in Alabama. In Florida that was keeping the beaches open to accommodate the spring breakers. And there are certain prominent individuals like Mr. Limbaugh who are still spreading skepticism--questioning for instance the tractor trailer morgues outside hospitals. It will be interesting to see how they parse the outbreak on the aircraft carrier---is the US Navy part of some hoax conspiracy?

One of the biggest issues with NYC is the density of population. That doesn't mean the virus can't travel--it is in every county in NYS. As far as other states unless measures are taken to curtail and/or distance human activity (and the sooner the better) it's going to have an impact sooner or later and that impact is going to be fed by the denial of people like Limbaugh and those who listen to him and the economy was going to get wrecked by this one way or the other and IMO worse wrecked by those who want to keep it forced open which only can lead to more people dying and more fear and panic. When strategies like distancing are in place people actually have something proactive they can do to control their fear/anxiety.

 

[Khelvan]

Info on COVID-19 and warm, humid weather:
https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Starting today, facemasks are mandatory in Austria. Can't say I ever expected it to come to this

Starting today, facemasks are mandatory in Austria. Can't say I ever expected it to come to this

 

[leetch99]

Yeah, when I did the military service I had a friend in my plutoon that went home over a 4 day weekend, and just died in the effin flu. He was 18 and we were selected for Artic Ranger training which is one of the toughest military regiments in Sweden after very extensive testing and was of course super fit. No underlying condition. He was a bit sick, then all of a sudden his fever went up to 41´ c on Friday afternoon and they rushed him to the hospital, and a few hour later he was dead.

But I am feeling more and more that the season flu really takes a toll on me the last years. The period I am "sick" isn't that bad, but the following week I am just completely worn out as the body recovers.

Eat more veggies .

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

Starting today, facemasks are mandatory in Austria. Can't say I ever expected it to come to this

Starting today, facemasks are mandatory in Austria. Can't say I ever expected it to come to this

My question is, where did you get one?

In the US, Amazon delivery estimates are June...

Stay safe, AK!

 

[LORDE]

Yeah. I wake up the same time each day. The same time I would if I was going to work. I use the "travel time" to make myself breakfast. Some orange juice, fried eggs etc.

I'm behind my laptop by 8 AM, which would be the time I enter the office. Having that habit stay the same, makes it easier to go back to work once this is over.

Fried eggs? You wanna die of a heart attack?!?! (just trying to bring levity to the thread a bit)

 

[Gardner McKay]

It depends on what our fatality rate ends up being and it's hard to say because we don't know how many actually have it and fatality has wildly varied across regions.

If it's 4%, that figure would require 5 million infected. I absolutely think that's possible.

If it's 1%, that would require 20 million infected. I don't know if I see that, at least not in one wave.

It's scary to think that there's so many more out there than we know of, but at the same time, that's going to drive down fatality rate significantly, because if you're sick enough to die from it, we know you have it.

But even with a lowered fatality rate, a virus that tens of millions get will kill hundreds of thousands. We have to do as much as we can to limit the spread. This new projection leads me to believe that people are not doing enough, particularly in parts of the country where it "isn't that bad" yet.

Maybe. If there is more than one wave then it could be possible. But we haven't even hit 100k deaths globally yet. Maybe I am being too optimistic here but I think projecting that up to 250k Americans could die from COVID is ridiculous. Considering three weeks ago the President was bragging that he didn't want to take passengers from the diamond princess to "keep our numbers low, I like low numbers, we have low numbers". Then saying we would be open for business by 4/3, then pushing it to April 10th like 2 days later, then to April 30th like 3 days later, there is almost no credibility coming from the White House at the moment.

I don’t mean to scare you, but projections regarding unmitigated spread show 2MM plus. We already passed the total deaths on 9/11 today. It will be a f***ing miracle if we stay under 100K. A blessing if we stay under 200K.

Stay home, wash your hands. And for the love of God, listen to experts.

I'm not really scared. I've been prepared for this since early January when 3/4ths of the BOH forum was laughing at me as I said this is a going to be a global problem.

I dunno. I just don't see that many deaths in the US. Again, maybe I am just being wildly optimistic.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Fried eggs? You wanna die of a heart attack?!?! (just trying to bring levity to the thread a bit)

Based on what I have seen from COVID-19 deaths, a massive coronary may not be the worst way to go

Everything in moderation. At least, that is what I try to abide by.

 

[NYR Viper]

The Fortune 500 company I work for just announced company wide furlough's starting next week. Mandatory 2 weeks unpaid out of the next 5. It's a far cry from what some are experiencing so I am not complaining, just informing so others who may be in a similar position don't feel alone.

 

[Ola]

The Fortune 500 company I work for just announced company wide furlough's starting next week. Mandatory 2 weeks unpaid out of the next 5. It's a far cry from what some are experiencing so I am not complaining, just informing so others who may be in a similar position don't feel alone.

We are just swamped with work at my firm, everybody needs help at the same time. From practical issues on how big companies can handle their general meetings to buy-outs of bombed out companies to rights issues/private placements.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

https://nypost.com/2020/04/01/coronavirus-russia-sends-military-plane-with-medical-gear-to-us/

Nice.

 

[jniklast]

I saw an estimate that 2.5-5% of the Swedes has Corona right now by an internationally renowned professor. He literary said that his best guess is 5-10%, but he wouldn't bet the house on it, but that he certainly would do it on the real rate being at least in the span 2.5-5%.

Its starting to feel like its safe to assume that the death rate is much lower than what the numbers indicate (probably below 0.5%), but that a lot more have it. As I understand it, most die three weeks after getting it. The coming month will be really tough...

I can't really comment on Sweden as of course the disease is handled a bit differently there, but at least for Germany such numbers seem unlikely. Last week of all tests done for Covid only 8.7% of 354k tests were positive. And these tests are almost exclusively done for people which are suspected to have the disease. Thus I'd expect a number well below 1% of all Germans being infected right now.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

My question is, where did you get one?

In the US, Amazon delivery estimates are June...

Stay safe, AK!

Supermarkets hand them out. We actually know how to manage this

 

[BigBlueAndRed]

Found these on ebay, these are Chinese KN95 masks being imported by resellers:

4PCS/Box N-95 Fast Shipping FDA Protection US Stock | eBay

It's still a rip off since they're probably buying these for $4-$6 each, and you don't know if they've legitimately been tested by the FDA. However, with no alternatives, at least this isn't super expensive.

 

[jniklast]

Supermarkets hand them out. We actually know how to manage this

You sure did in Ischgl

 

[Gardner McKay]

The Fortune 500 company I work for just announced company wide furlough's starting next week. Mandatory 2 weeks unpaid out of the next 5. It's a far cry from what some are experiencing so I am not complaining, just informing so others who may be in a similar position don't feel alone.

I'm sorry to hear that but yes, it could be worse. I think we will see more and more of that, furloughs that is. It tells me that companies are optimistic about the future post COVID-19. If they weren't, then I think we would be seeing more layoffs.

 

[eco's bones]

Maybe. If there is more than one wave then it could be possible. But we haven't even hit 100k deaths globally yet. Maybe I am being too optimistic here but I think projecting that up to 250k Americans could die from COVID is ridiculous. Considering three weeks ago the President was bragging that he didn't want to take passengers from the diamond princess to "keep our numbers low, I like low numbers, we have low numbers". Then saying we would be open for business by 4/3, then pushing it to April 10th like 2 days later, then to April 30th like 3 days later, there is almost no credibility coming from the White House at the moment.



I'm not really scared. I've been prepared for this since early January when 3/4ths of the BOH forum was laughing at me as I said this is a going to be a global problem.

I dunno. I just don't see that many deaths in the US. Again, maybe I am just being wildly optimistic.

Depends on a lot of factors--for instance the virus's durability and duration, testing (that there are asymptomatic is a big issue), when a vaccine will be available, how it's managed until that vaccine is available--the shutting down and distancing, local/state measures are only one part of that--if a hospital or a region gets overwhelmed though deaths can pile up very quickly and there still could be another wave or two. That's why I think even if it settles down for a little bit it will be necessary to be careful about restarting everything too soon. If there are other waves they probably won't be as bad as what's going on now but they still could be pretty bad.

 

[Crease]

We are just swamped with work at my firm, everybody needs help at the same time. From practical issues on how big companies can handle their general meetings to buy-outs of bombed out companies to rights issues/private placements.

Our firm management is optimistic. My practice includes insurance law, and insurer clients have been in close touch regarding everything from pandemic coverage to Side-A management liability exposure. There is already COVID-related securities litigation filed, and public companies are issuing new guidance daily. We will remain busy and I'm grateful.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

You sure did in Ischgl

That's basically Italy anyway. But I was referring to the masks haha

 

[Fireonk]

Maybe. If there is more than one wave then it could be possible. But we haven't even hit 100k deaths globally yet. Maybe I am being too optimistic here but I think projecting that up to 250k Americans could die from COVID is ridiculous. Considering three weeks ago the President was bragging that he didn't want to take passengers from the diamond princess to "keep our numbers low, I like low numbers, we have low numbers". Then saying we would be open for business by 4/3, then pushing it to April 10th like 2 days later, then to April 30th like 3 days later, there is almost no credibility coming from the White House at the moment.



I'm not really scared. I've been prepared for this since early January when 3/4ths of the BOH forum was laughing at me as I said this is a going to be a global problem.

I dunno. I just don't see that many deaths in the US. Again, maybe I am just being wildly optimistic.

I definitely don't think its out of the question. Look at Italy, current tally is 13,155 deaths. They have been in lockdown for quite some time and they still have reported 4782 new cases today according to Coronavirus Update (Live): 903,772 Cases and 45,334 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer. 4000 currently in serious/critical condition. And while it looks like they might have finally started slowing down, they will still be having cases (like every country) for quite some time. We have over 5 times the population they do and while we had a head start we did nothing with it. Really looks to me like 100k deaths from this in the US is the current best case scenario.

 

[sbjnyc]

Btw. Not for nothing, but the more I learn about the flu, the more amazed I am we don’t get more worried about it every year. I had no idea, before all this, that so many people were lost yearly to the flu.

The difference is that we have flu vaccines and medical treatments for it, unlike this virus. New strains of flu occasionally cause problems like this.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

So I just went out to the store briefly for the first time in 2 weeks. I got two questions

1) Where can I find some of these masks where I'm not getting completely raked over the coals on the price ?
2) Do they have to be a special kind of mask or does literally anything covering your face help?

I'll hang up and listen