OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Part III

[sbjnyc]

I have no problem with general bailout process (specifically there are tons of issues, like picking winners and losers)

My main problem is in the long term, the national debt increase through the process is never reconciled whether they profit off of it or not. They system never gets put on a more solid foundation, then something else comes up and it just adds more debt.

IMO it's best to think of the deficit as a % of GDP. Under Carter it was about 2.5% of GDP and under Reagan it was around 4%. The problem with Carter's deficit is that it was financed with high interest rate debt. Year to year the deficit ranged from maybe 2.5-4,5% of GDP until Clinton who had a surplus until the dot.com bubble and and then followed by 9/11 under W. Even then the deficit was about 1-3% of GDP until the financial collapse where the deficit zoomed up to 10% of GDP. I think that's what we're looking at here - maybe worse (WW2 had about 20% deficits). Since then the deficit dropped to around 3% and edged up to around 4-5%. The good thing is that interest rates are essentially 0.

Edit: To add some perspective, looking at total debt to GDP, Japan's is 235%, which is worse than Venezuela. The US is around 105%, the UK is 85% and Iraq is around 50%.

 

[sbjnyc]

Yeah I wonder if that could have been done too. I think New Zeeland is attempting it, putting everyone (including returning citizens) in a two week quarantine.

If we go back three weeks. How many US citizens were outside the country about to return? 300k (it is supposedly 90m per year)? Imagine the outcry if everyone were forced into some ad hoc quarantine camp somewhere for a couple of weeks...

I was on a conference call Friday with someone who was stuck in Peru.

Not for nothing but passing a bill that phases payments pegged to people's 2018 tax income filing is beyond f***ing stupid.

Some people aren't going to have income anymore. That's..........the point?

Hopefully they change it.

Change it to what? 2018 is the last year with completed tax returns.

 

[GordonGecko]

Not for nothing but passing a bill that phases payments pegged to people's 2018 tax income filing is beyond f***ing stupid.

Some people aren't going to have income anymore. That's..........the point?

Hopefully they change it.

what if you haven't filed you 2018 taxes yet?

 

[Irishguy42]

This is good. Javits is absurdly huge


MSG apparently offered to be a field hospital but Cuomo declined.

 

[sbjnyc]

This is good. Javits is absurdly huge


MSG apparently offered to be a field hospital but Cuomo declined.

MSG probably required NYS to buy Liberty season tickets as part of the deal.

 

[Krams]

Not for nothing but passing a bill that phases payments pegged to people's 2018 tax income filing is beyond f***ing stupid.

Some people aren't going to have income anymore. That's..........the point?

Hopefully they change it.

How could you do it off 2019 when the majority of people haven't filed yet?

 

[East Coast Bias]

what if you haven't filed you 2018 taxes yet?

don’t know. Going to try to read it closer tonight. But it’s been changing throughout the day and I’m a bit behind. This was the concept floated tho.

How could you do it off 2019 when the majority of people haven't filed yet?

2018. We just filed 2019.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Obviously all of the equipment and hospital space is great news, but it's sad that we need it.

 

[sbjnyc]

don’t know. Going to try to read it closer tonight. But it’s been changing throughout the day and I’m a bit behind. This was the concept floated tho.



2018. We just filed 2019.

Maybe you did but the deadline for filing is July 15 and many people file an extension to October. If you're going to send out checks based on income now you have to base it on 2018 returns.

 

[ohbaby]

Republican lobbyist who wrote the 1.8 trillion Senate bailout bill is being condemned by Democrats. It has bailouts for corporations that are not restricted in any scope. Those opposed, fear what happened in 2008's bailout with the stock buy backs. Don't see this aid package coming anytime soon or being all that helpful to everyday Americans.

It is not unusual for greedy people to take advantages of a crisis. Price gouging is a perfect example.

And what makes anyone think, with people out of work for 3 months or more and most likely dead broke at that time,... this economy will bounce back better than ever.

And Thanks for that malicious alert up top.

 

[Machinehead]

It's great that Italy went down but they've had down days before.

They need to start putting them together.

 

[Off Sides]

IMO it's best to think of the deficit as a % of GDP. Under Carter it was about 2.5% of GDP and under Reagan it was around 4%. The problem with Carter's deficit is that it was financed with high interest rate debt. Year to year the deficit ranged from maybe 2.5-4,5% of GDP until Clinton who had a surplus until the dot.com bubble and and then followed by 9/11 under W. Even then the deficit was about 1-3% of GDP until the financial collapse where the deficit zoomed up to 10% of GDP. I think that's what we're looking at here - maybe worse (WW2 had about 20% deficits). Since then the deficit dropped to around 3% and edged up to around 4-5%. The good thing is that interest rates are essentially 0.

Edit: To add some perspective, looking at total debt to GDP, Japan's is 235%, which is worse than Venezuela. The US is around 105%, the UK is 85% and Iraq is around 50%.

They are talking like 4 trillion more in quantitative easing. GDP is like 21-23 trillion. I am not sure what level the balance sheet was at prior.

 

[GordonGecko]

Rangers are done =(

Joe Buck on Michael Kay show 98.7 just said that he was told by NHL player dating his daughter or something that if season restarts it's 1 week of training and then straight to playoffs. The NHL regular season is effectively cancelled for 2019-20

 

[Crease]

It's great that Italy went down but they've had down days before.

They need to start putting them together.

The US is a relatively young country, so you'd expect them to have ups and downs and inconsistency over the course of a pandemic. Italy has been around forever, been there before, and was expected to be a contender for pandemic response champs.

 

[Khelvan]

As of today 6,077 deaths in Italy, while confirmed cases totaled 63,927 for a death rate of over 9%. Their healthcare is not 3rd world either.

Not 3rd world is an understatement. Their healthcare system is ranked #2 in the world by the World Health Organization.

The USA is #37 on that list, and France #1, for comparison.

 

[Machinehead]

The US is a relatively young country, so you'd expect them to have ups and downs and inconsistency over the course of a pandemic. Italy has been around forever, been there before, and was expected to be a contender for pandemic response champs.

Yes, and their healthcare system is excellent. Something happened here. Maybe it's just because I'm a sociology professor, but I'm inclined to think it's something cultural. Here's my crazy theory:

Italians tend to practice hanging their meat in stores whereas we put it under glass containers, like so:

I think the hanging meat became infected with respiratory droplets as folks went in and out of grocery stores and delis.

Almost half of coronavirus patients have digestive symptoms, study finds

There's a direct correlation between experiencing the digestive symptoms and having a more serious strain. The stomach flu weakens you just as Covid-19 enters your lungs. Ingested droplets are very likely to cause symptoms to start in the stomach.

 

[xbure9x]

Indiana now issuing a shelter in place order (MI and WI both did so earlier today).

This IMO is a good thing. The first really red state to do so. Hopefully this throws cold water on the whole "back to work next week!" movement.

I will admit that I am pro back to normal sooner than most people would like to admit, I would go back to work tomorrow and I work in a school, but even I know that next week won't be happening. The way I see it, I will be content if we can just sort of get back to some sense of normalcy at the end of the planned spring break vacation week, so right around April 2o the date the city gave to reopen the schools. I honestly think that is more than enough time for everything to be shut down and if we go any longer than that, I think it's a big mistake.

 

[HFBS]

Rangers are done =(

Joe Buck on Michael Kay show 98.7 just said that he was told by NHL player dating his daughter or something that if season restarts it's 1 week of training and then straight to playoffs. The NHL regular season is effectively cancelled for 2019-20

And this is a surprise to you?

 

[GordonGecko]

And this is a surprise to you?

I wouldn't have minded summer hockey tbh

 

[ohbaby]

just because I'm a sociology professor, but I'm inclined to think it's something cultural.

I bag groceries and believe you are correct.

 

[HFBS]

MSG probably required NYS to buy Liberty season tickets as part of the deal.

I'll chip in the $8.

 

[Machinehead]

Buckle up, folks. Trump is on tv basically saying we're just gonna ignore it now.

 

[Bricho]

The hanging meat may have contributed to the spread but Italians are also famous for their social interactions surrounding food. Meals are more often shared than eaten alone. No one sits in front of a tv with a plate on their lap. Coffee is rarely taken to go rather you sit at a cafe and sip it surrounded by other patrons. My point is, and you should know this as a sociologist, it will be a number of factors and not just one.

Yes, and their healthcare system is excellent. Something happened here. Maybe it's just because I'm a sociology professor, but I'm inclined to think it's something cultural. Here's my crazy theory:

Italians tend to practice hanging their meat in stores whereas we put it under glass containers, like so:

I think the hanging meat became infected with respiratory droplets as folks went in and out of grocery stores and delis.

Almost half of coronavirus patients have digestive symptoms, study finds

There's a direct correlation between experiencing the digestive symptoms and having a more serious strain. The stomach flu weakens you just as Covid-19 enters your lungs. Ingested droplets are very likely to cause symptoms to start in the stomach.

 

[Machinehead]

The hanging meat may have contributed to the spread but Italians are also famous for their social interactions surrounding food. Meals are more often shared than eaten alone. No one sits in front of a tv with a plate on their lap. Coffee is rarely taken to go rather you sit at a cafe and sip it surrounded by other patrons. My point is, and you should know this as a sociologist, it will be a number of factors and not just one.

I agree with you.

 

[Khelvan]

Buckle up, folks. Trump is on tv basically saying we're just gonna ignore it now.

This must be why Dr. Fauci is missing, because that's insanity and no epidemiologist would sign off on that.

Either that or he has been absent because of his facepalm on live tv embarrassing Trump.

He needs to be there. Who is advising the president that this is a good idea? Barr?

Edit: This is insanity.