Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Part X

[Confucius]

I don't buy the virus runs its course thing. Other places have done well to keep cases low with using measures. Even here, though our numbers have risen, they could have been much worse with out measures in place.

As far as California goes, they put a lot of the blame on them never reopening. Reopening parts of the economy for a period gives people some relief. A lot of people there have stopped following guidelines.

Or maybe the virus just runs its course and all we can hope to do is delay it. Maybe Florida took the hit early and absorbed it. California delayed it but is now proving it can't absorb it. In the end almost everyone gets it anyway.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

I am not sure I get your chart.

Florida has 21k deaths reported with a population of 20 million, while California has 24k deaths with a 40 million population.

That graph cannot be accurate.

It's not my chart and the numbers are per 100k in population. I.e., it's population corrected.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Even this is misleading. While overall California is larger, according to the info you posted, they have the second most populous region as well as the 5th with 18.7 and 9.8 million people in each.

The 18.7 million which is almost the population in Florida live in a much smaller area than the state of Florida

Ever been to Florida? I have many times. No one lives in the Everglades. The vast majority of people live in densely populated areas.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

One thing that I've learned in these discussions is you can definitively prove things beyond all dispute and people will still dispute them. Funny world. Is it so hard to say "yeah, I was mistaken about that"? You can even follow it up with a "but it doesn't change my overall point" or even a "but I still believe..." if it helps you swallow it easier.

 

[Jojalu]

Ever been to Florida? I have many times. No one lives in the Everglades. The vast majority of people live in densely populated areas.

I am in Florida 3 to 4 times a year. Nowherr in Florida has an area that has 18.7 millikn people living in it.

 

[4thline]

How about this one?
COVID-19 Cases, Deaths, and Trends in the US | CDC COVID Data Tracker


CDC | Updated: Dec 27 2020 2:05PMDownload Data
Skip Table

State/Territory	Average Daily Cases per 100k in Last 7 Days
Tennessee	119.7
California	95.7
Arizona	88
Oklahoma	83.2
Indiana	72.5
West Virginia	71.4
Alabama	68.6
Utah	67.3
Arkansas	65.6
Nevada	64
Delaware	63.6
New York*	63.6
Pennsylvania	63.2
Georgia	62.6
Ohio	61.4
Massachusetts	59.7
Mississippi	57.9
Rhode Island	57.4
North Carolina	56.8
New Mexico	56.5
Idaho	53.7
South Carolina	50.9
New Jersey	50.6
New York City*	50.5
Kentucky	48
Florida	46.4
Kansas	45.4
New Hampshire	45.4
Illinois	44.8
Virginia	44.7
Nebraska	43.7
Louisiana	43.2
Texas	42.7
South Dakota	42.4
Colorado	42.2
Wyoming	40.9
Missouri	40.8
Connecticut	39.9
Maryland	38.7
Wisconsin	37.7
Montana	37.6
Iowa	37
Alaska	34.3
Maine	31.2
Minnesota	30.2
Michigan	29
District of Columbia	27.7
North Dakota	26.7
Washington	26.5
Oregon	22.1
Puerto Rico	21.4
Vermont	14.3
Virgin Islands	9.1
Hawaii	8.5
Guam	6.3
Northern Mariana Islands	1.8
American Samoa	0
Federated States of Micronesia	0
Palau	0
Republic of Marshall Islands	0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Taking the numbers from this
https://www.publichealthontario.ca/...0/covid-19-daily-epi-summary-report.pdf?la=en

The only mainland state that outperforms Ontario is Vermont, with nothing else really that close.

 

[Jojalu]

It's not my chart and the numbers are per 100k in population. I.e., it's population corrected.

I know it's not your chart. I understand what the correction is.
Florida has 988 deaths per 100k while California has 650 per 100k.

That is not debatable.

 

[Confucius]

I know it's not your chart. I understand what the correction is.
Florida has 988 deaths per 100k while California has 650 per 100k.

That is not debatable.

Maybe your numbers are since the beginning. Trending since the start of December California is having over double the deaths Florida has and almost triple in the last week. As I said one state got the brunt of it over with early the other is heading into it.

 

[PromisedLand]

I don't buy the virus runs its course thing. Other places have done well to keep cases low with using measures. Even here, though our numbers have risen, they could have been much worse with out measures in place.

As far as California goes, they put a lot of the blame on them never reopening. Reopening parts of the economy for a period gives people some relief. A lot of people there have stopped following guidelines.

Not to go into conspiracy realm but take numbers coming out of Florida with a grain of salt. Their governor wanted to "tweak" the numbers and the epidemiologist that refused got fired; had their house raided by cops for being a whistle blower and then one of the hand pick guy of the governor resigned.

I wouldn't be surprised if 5 years down the road the governor of florida is tried for manslaughter

 

[PromisedLand]

I know it's not your chart. I understand what the correction is.
Florida has 988 deaths per 100k while California has 650 per 100k.

That is not debatable.

Looking only at "deaths" is not an ideal way of analyzing data. It should also factor in hospitalizations and potential long term health impact that might end up costing an arm and a leg in the US where they don't have universal healthcare like Canada not to mention the physical and mental strain.

The long term impact of the virus will be known in around 3 to 5 years. It could be nothing or it could be severe. The studies have also found that the so called "healthy" people have their hearts swell, lungs punctured (these are folks without undelrying health conditions or age related symptom).

Without taking into account all the information just looking at just "deaths" is not ideal IMO. I would prefer dying today instead of living on the bed in 3 to 5 years for the rest of my life.

There is a reason for the saying "Health is Wealth"

 

[Jojalu]

One thing that I've learned in these discussions is you can definitively prove things beyond all dispute and people will still dispute them. Funny world. Is it so hard to say "yeah, I was mistaken about that"? You can even follow it up with a "but it doesn't change my overall point" or even a "but I still believe..." if it helps you swallow it easier.

I have found that these discussions have helped me change my opinion on the overall effectiveness of lockdowns.

I think the evidence now shows that our long term ramifications of this are going to be just as harmful.

There has been a lot of decisions made that should be questioned and it seems we have been misled to a degree.

My new conclusion is that this is now a serious pandemic that thankfully happened in an era where medical science has the ability to save a lot of people who would have had a worse outcome 50 years ago. Although it is serious, I also believe we have made some terrible choices on how we chose to respond, and it exposed terrible holes we have in our health care systems.

It is unacceptable that 250 ICU beds being used puts our healthcare system on high alert. I understand that 75% of our beds are almost always in use, but what happens if we have a natural disaster or worse??

We have no safety net. As for LTC'S. That has proven to be a disaster, and we have spent zero time trying to fix it.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

I know it's not your chart. I understand what the correction is.
Florida has 988 deaths per 100k while California has 650 per 100k.

That is not debatable.

Which has nothing to do with what we're talking about. *Currently*, California is doing worse. And this after locking down harder than any state and Florida being criticized for being too lax. It's an interesting comparison but you'd have to acknowledge the teeniest, tiniest point (that California is currently in worse shape) to even start the conversation. But you won't.

 

[stealth1]

I have found that these discussions have helped me change my opinion on the overall effectiveness of lockdowns.

I think the evidence now shows that our long term ramifications of this are going to be just as harmful.

There has been a lot of decisions made that should be questioned and it seems we have been misled to a degree.

My new conclusion is that this is now a serious pandemic that thankfully happened in an era where medical science has the ability to save a lot of people who would have had a worse outcome 50 years ago. Although it is serious, I also believe we have made some terrible choices on how we chose to respond, and it exposed terrible holes we have in our health care systems.

It is unacceptable that 250 ICU beds being used puts our healthcare system on high alert. I understand that 75% of our beds are almost always in use, but what happens if we have a natural disaster or worse??

We have no safety net. As for LTC'S. That has proven to be a disaster, and we have spent zero time trying to fix it.

I will say this. I fully believe they were trying to avoid doing lockdowns a second time. We as a society failed in doing our part.

I do agree that they should have fixed LTCs and fixed the ICU situation. Outside of that I think they done a good job in trying to keep people working and living with Covid.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

I have found that these discussions have helped me change my opinion on the overall effectiveness of lockdowns.

I think the evidence now shows that our long term ramifications of this are going to be just as harmful.

There has been a lot of decisions made that should be questioned and it seems we have been misled to a degree.

My new conclusion is that this is now a serious pandemic that thankfully happened in an era where medical science has the ability to save a lot of people who would have had a worse outcome 50 years ago. Although it is serious, I also believe we have made some terrible choices on how we chose to respond, and it exposed terrible holes we have in our health care systems.

It is unacceptable that 250 ICU beds being used puts our healthcare system on high alert. I understand that 75% of our beds are almost always in use, but what happens if we have a natural disaster or worse??

We have no safety net. As for LTC'S. That has proven to be a disaster, and we have spent zero time trying to fix it.

I have nothing to add to this. I agree with everything.

 

[Pink Mist]

One thing that I've learned in these discussions is you can definitively prove things beyond all dispute and people will still dispute them. Funny world. Is it so hard to say "yeah, I was mistaken about that"? You can even follow it up with a "but it doesn't change my overall point" or even a "but I still believe..." if it helps you swallow it easier.

lmao you literally put me on ignore because I corrected you on what Canada's Charter applies to. But sure, please go on some high horse about how people are unable to accept facts

 

[IPS]

How about this one?
COVID-19 Cases, Deaths, and Trends in the US | CDC COVID Data Tracker


CDC | Updated: Dec 27 2020 2:05PMDownload Data
Skip Table

State/Territory	Average Daily Cases per 100k in Last 7 Days
Tennessee	119.7
California	95.7
Arizona	88
Oklahoma	83.2
Indiana	72.5
West Virginia	71.4
Alabama	68.6
Utah	67.3
Arkansas	65.6
Nevada	64
Delaware	63.6
New York*	63.6
Pennsylvania	63.2
Georgia	62.6
Ohio	61.4
Massachusetts	59.7
Mississippi	57.9
Rhode Island	57.4
North Carolina	56.8
New Mexico	56.5
Idaho	53.7
South Carolina	50.9
New Jersey	50.6
New York City*	50.5
Kentucky	48
Florida	46.4
Kansas	45.4
New Hampshire	45.4
Illinois	44.8
Virginia	44.7
Nebraska	43.7
Louisiana	43.2
Texas	42.7
South Dakota	42.4
Colorado	42.2
Wyoming	40.9
Missouri	40.8
Connecticut	39.9
Maryland	38.7
Wisconsin	37.7
Montana	37.6
Iowa	37
Alaska	34.3
Maine	31.2
Minnesota	30.2
Michigan	29
District of Columbia	27.7
North Dakota	26.7
Washington	26.5
Oregon	22.1
Puerto Rico	21.4
Vermont	14.3
Virgin Islands	9.1
Hawaii	8.5
Guam	6.3
Northern Mariana Islands	1.8
American Samoa	0
Federated States of Micronesia	0
Palau	0
Republic of Marshall Islands	0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Looks pretty accurate to me.

It is so hilarious watching them try to explain this Florida thing away.

 

[cbbb25]

One thing that I've learned in these discussions is you can definitively prove things beyond all dispute and people will still dispute them. Funny world. Is it so hard to say "yeah, I was mistaken about that"? You can even follow it up with a "but it doesn't change my overall point" or even a "but I still believe..." if it helps you swallow it easier.

To use my analogy from yesterday again. Especially since this is a leaf board. Theres 95% of Leaf Fans that drink the Kool-aid each year and were seeing it happen again. They believe we have the best team in the NHL even though they haven't won a round. You bring that up and they freak out about refs, game style change in playoffs, coaching, everything but the fact that the team sucks in high intensity situations.

The 5% sit and say well if we had one of the best teams in the NHL wouldn't we be talking about how were raising the Stanley Cup or at the very least not kicked out of the 1st round 4 times in a row and having to fire a coach mid way thru the season?

Do that with Covid and you can see that selective "facts" are apart of everyday life and doesnt matter what's put in front of people they will cling to their beliefs.

 

[Zybalto]

The problem with focusing on Florida (21st in official death rates among all states since the begining) is looking at why the mainstream press was so hyper focused on Florida to begin with.

Was it because they were the worst state in the union when it came to the pandemic in any way or was it because they were the biggest battleground prize in an election year and being run by Republicans?

I'm not saying the NY Posts/Foxnews' are any better but I sure expect more out of the professionals whose job it is to inform the public during a pandemic.

 

[4thline]

I hate to say this but were in catch 22. If your business can be open then dont tell me to stay home, stay away from the cottage ect..

This is pretty on the nose. The restrictions that make sense in order to curb the spread while doing the least harm to the economy don't make sense intuitively to many people so they wouldn't be followed, which leads to the inclusion of different restrictions that don't make sense empirically but seem to be necessary to get people to get on board with the ones that do.

 

[PromisedLand]

Chinese Citizen Journalist Sentenced to 4 Years for Covid Reporting

#Pathetic

 

[cbbb25]

This is pretty on the nose. The restrictions that make sense in order to curb the spread while doing the least harm to the economy don't make sense intuitively to many people so they wouldn't be followed, which leads to the inclusion of different restrictions that don't make sense empirically but seem to be necessary to get people to get on board with the ones that do.

100%. I myself fall into that trap. I know ideally we open all businesses and stay home and away from others homes unless your doing something to stimulate the economy (restaurants, movies, ect) but then all it will take is for someone like me to say well if my friend can go to the gym, eat dinner at a restaurant and then catch a movie I won't be told I cannot have thanksgiving at the family cottage which is a 40+ year old tradition.

 

[justashadowof]

 

[PromisedLand]

So if this guy or folks in this picture require hospitalization; compared to the essential worker working their butts off and doctors now have to choose (like in California); who should the doctors choose?

 

[justashadowof]

I love the faces in that family picture. I guarantee that they aren't a politically homogeneous group. They just value family more than their individual selves.

 

[Pink Mist]

Hospital workers, who work in an extremely stressful job during a pandemic where they are overworked and demoralized, are never allowed to have fun!

Taking shots at doctors and nurses right now is pretty cheap